【作者】 齐闯；

【导师】 许俊杰；

【作者基本信息】 东北林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 气候变化问题是当今国际社会的热点和焦点问题,也是事关我国经济社会可持续发展的重大问题。林业在应对全球气候变化领域占有重要地位。充分发挥林业在应对气候变化方面的重要作用,有赖于政策机制的不断调整完善和重大创新。在今天林业应对气候变化政策机制大量出台和实施的背景下,非常有必要基于科学的理论,利用可行的技术和手段,对林业应对气候变化政策机制进行系统、科学地综合评价,为完善与优化相关政策机制、更好地发挥林业在应对气候变化领域的作用提供决策依据。这也是当前开展我国林业应对全球气候变化政策机制研究的一个重要课题。本研究从普遍意义上理解林业在应对气候变化领域的作用(而不是CDM机制下林业碳汇项目的角度),将我国林业发展的各项现行政策机制当中与林业应对气候变化相关的内容作为评价对象,以系统科学理论的独占视角,对林业应对气候变化诸政策机制的综合效率及其相互间的协调状况进行综合评价研究。首先,以系统科学为方法论指导,将应对气候变化相关的各种林业活动视为一个复合系统,研究该林业应对气候变化复合系统的功能、结构、耦合机理和系统特征。然后,以此为据将我国林业发展的各项现行政策机制当中与林业应对气候变化相关的内容进行梳理、整合,构建出林业应对气候变化的政策机制体系。第三,以系统科学的视角将该政策机制体系视为一个动态开放的政策机制复合巨系统。运用系统分析的方法,围绕林业应对气候变化政策机制复合巨系统的目标,建立综合评价指标体系、构建综合评价模型,对林业应对气候变化政策机制进行全面、系统、动态地综合测度与评价,为林业应对气候变化相关政策机制的调整与完善提供科学的决策依据。应对气候变化背景下的各种林业活动构成了一个复合系统,该复合系统同时又是一个典型的耗散系统,存在着熵值增加的自发趋势。在其变化的混沌进程中,设计合理的系统功能结构(运行机制)和有效的管理模式(动力约束机制),对系统进行内外部关系协调管理,增强负熵的持续流入,抵消正熵的产生,可以使系统始终处于有序的耗散结构状态,实现该系统诸要素的耦合和协同、不断进化,充分发挥出林业在气候变化领域的作用。林业应对气候变化的政策机制体系由运行机制、动力机制和约束机制构成。其中,碳增汇、碳贮存和碳替代是当前林业应对气候变化的主要运行机制。并且这三大运行机制并非相互独立,而是相互影响、相互促进、相互制约,耦合成一个动态、开放的正反馈复合系统,实现林业减排增汇、应对气候变化的功能。因此,应对气候变化的林业政策机制体系又可以视为一个以动力约束机制为输入变量、以运行机制的运行结果为输出变量,由碳增汇政策机制子系统、碳贮存政策机制子系统和碳替代政策机制子系统相互耦合协同而成的林业应对气候变化政策机制复合系统。充分发挥该复合系统的减排增汇功能、使其对气候变化产生充分有效反应的关键在于准确把握碳增汇政策机制子系统、碳贮存政策机制子系统和碳替代政策机制子系统这三大政策机制子系统间的作用关系,并在此基础上通过各种动力机制和约束机制不断对这三大政策机制子系统耦合成的林业应对气候变化政策机制复合系统输入负熵流,促使其走向耦合、协同共生,表现出协同进化的发展趋势,使系统始终于一种有序的耗散结构状态,最优地实现其应对气候变化的系统功能。构建由4个层次(目标层、模块层、准则层、指标层)、3大模块(碳增汇模块、碳贮存模块、碳替代模块)、12个准则、19个输入指标和21个输出指标组成的中国林业应对气候变化政策机制综合评价指标体系,以及基于CCR-DEA、BCC-DEA、以及超效率-CCR-DEA方法的林业应对气候变化政策机制综合效率指数模型、基于变异系数法的林业应对气候变化政策机制协调度与协调水平度模型和基于灰色GM(1,N)方法的林业应对气候变化政策机制动态协调发展模型,可以对由碳增汇政策机制子系统、碳贮存政策机制子系统、碳替代政策机制子系统耦合而成的我国林业应对气候变化政策机制复合系统的综合效率水平、协调状态、以及协调影响因子的作用方向与程度进行较为全面、系统、科学地测度与评价,为林业应对气候变化政策机制的调整与优化提供决策依据。选取黑龙江省国有重点林区为实证案例分析对象,运用构建的综合评价指标体系和综合评价模型对其林业应对气候变化的政策机制进行了综合评价。认为对我国林业应对气候变化政策机制进行调整与完善应以运行机制、动力机制、约束机制的调整与完善为出发点和落脚点,进一步挖掘林业在碳增汇、碳贮存、碳替代方面的潜力,在此基础上不断系统地完善与优化动力约束政策机制,更好地实现林业减排增汇、应对气候变化的目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 The issue of global climate change is not only a hot issue and one of the focuses in current international society, but also a major issue related to China’s sustainable economic and social development. Forestry plays an important role in response to global climate change.In the context of large number of policies and mechanisms about responses to climate change in forestry field are promulgated and implemented, it is necessary to make an comprehensive evaluation of theses policies and mechanisms, based on scientific theories and using practical method.The comprehensive evaluation can provide bases for decision making, assist the improvement and optimization of these policies and mechanisms, and impel forestry sector to perform it’s function in climate change field more better.The bases of the comprehensive evaluation is the sustainable development theory, low carbon economy theory, ecological compensation theory, and system theory. First, study the functions, structure,system characteristics, and coupling mechanism of the forestry composite system in terms of reacting to global climate change. Second,configure the policies and mechanisms of forestry response to climate change into a system. Third, design the evaluation indexes system and comprehensive evaluation models. Forth, make a comprehensive evaluation of the policy and mechanism system of response to global climate change in forestry sector of china,and offer suggestions for the adjustment and improvement of related policies and mechanisms.A variety of forestry activities coupled with synergies constitute a complex system under the context of reacting to climate change. This complex system is also a typical dissipative system, there is a spontaneous tendency of entropy increase. Therefore designing the right system structure(operating mechanism) and management model(dynamic and constraint mechanisms) to coordinate and manage external and internal relations of the complex system can bring about the entropy decrease,and offset the entropy increase of the system itself, and make the system always be in an orderly dissipative structure state, and evolve constantly.This is beneficial to forestry sector to perform it’s function in climate change field.The policy and mechanism system of forestry response to climate change comprises operating mechanism, dynamic mechanism, and constraint mechanism. Forest carbon sink, carbon storage and carbon substitution is the main operating mechanism, these three operating mechanisms coupled together into a composite system. Accurately evaluating the relationship between the three operating mechanism, and on this basis inputting constantly a negative entropy stream into this composite system through a variety of dynamic and constraint mechanisms can make a help to promote the coupling and collaborative coexistence of this composite system,and make this composite system shows out an co-evolution trends. This is helpful to exert the functions of forestry in terms of response to global climate change.The designed evaluation indexes system is composed of4levels,3big modules,12principles, and19input indexes and21output indexes, and the comprehensive evaluating models is designed based on DEA, and gray dynamic model. The overall efficiency level, coordination state, and the direction as well as degree of the impact factors of the policy and mechanism system of forestry response to climate change can be reflected accurately through the comprehensive evaluation. According to the results of the comprehensive evaluation, for forestry sector, to react to global climate change more effectively lies in the further performing of the functions of carbon sink, carbon storage, and carbon substitution, and the further improvement and optimization of the dynamic and constraint mechanism systematically.更多还原