【作者】 李明；

【导师】 何继善； 胡振华；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 城镇排水自动监测系统项目建设的目的是克服实验室监测频次少及采样误差等问题,及时反映城镇排水现场水质水量的真实情况,为各级部门的环境决策提供有效的监测数据支持。但现实中此类项目的建设及其运营管理是一个持续的过程,涉及因素众多,投资大,建设周期长,项目建设和运营存在很大的风险。论文的目的是建立城镇排水自动监测系统项目风险管理的有效模式,促进既有城镇排水自动监测系统的可持续运营,为城镇排水自动监测系统的大范围推广提供决策依据。论文的研究可以丰富和完善与水务管理和风险管理相关理论,提高城镇排水自动监测系统的监测数据质量和可持续运营能力。论文在文献搜集和评述的基础上,运用系统化分析方法分析了生态理论应用于项目风险管理的适用性,采用了德尔菲方法对城镇排水自动监测系统项目进行风险识别,并选用灰色评估理论中灰类决策模型进行项目风险评价指标筛选。论文采用结构方程建立了项目风险内部管理因子之间的结构模型和其对项目风险管理的影响模型,并通过类比分析,提出项目风险的生态化管理模式,建立了城镇排水自动监测系统“防御树”模型。论文选择灰色决策法和模糊综合评价方法进行广州市猎德污水处理厂水质在线监测系统项目风险评价实证。论文主要得到以下几个方面的结论：(1)城镇排水自动监测项目风险管理具有众多类生态学的特征,且其项目风险管理具有系统性、协作性、环境适应性的需求。用类生态的思维去研究城镇排水自动监测项目风险管理的模式是可行的。(2)城镇排水自动监测系统项目风险的主要影响因素可以归结为：监测标准、项目的建设模式、项目建设的外部环境、系统单元建设质量、项目运营中的人力资源、项目运营的管理方式和项目的决策影响力等方面。(3)城镇排水自动监测系统项目风险在项目的全生命周期(论证-建设-运营)中均有体现,论证阶段的主要评价指标有：水质监测标准选择、项目建设氛围支持度、项目可行性论证充分性；建设阶段的主要评价指标有：采水合理性、设备维护与扩展、试剂管理与配置、数据存储安全性、站房建设科学性、系统建设质量控制、监测数据质量控制；项目运行与维护阶段的主要评价指标有：人员素质、管理方式、后续财政支持、系统数据对决策的支持度等。这些评价指标是项目风险控制的重要依据。(4)城镇排水自动监测项目内部管理因子由人员因子与内部环境因子(包含组织管理、监测设施、信息与数据、项目风险文化等)组成,内部管理因子之间、各因子与项目风险管理目标之间存在特定的结构关系,其中人员因子、数据因子、组织管理因子对项目风险管理目标有重要的影响。(5)城镇排水自动监测系统项目风险的生态化管理模式可用“防御树”模型来表示。“防御树”模型把人员因子设为根系层,项目风险管理的具体过程设为树干层,信息交流过程以及组织管理、设备管理和数据控制设为树冠层,项目管理的自然环境和社会环境设为“防御树”的生态环境,各因子有机组合形成“防御树”,项目风险的内部管理因子之间及其与项目外部环境之间呈生态式平衡关系。(6)结合对广州市猎德污水处理厂的污水在线监测系统项目风险评价实证,依托论文前期建立的生态化管理模式,城镇排水自动监测系统项目风险的生态化管理包含两个方面的具体策略：一是从管理因子视角出发的管理策略,另一是结合项目的生命周期各阶段的可能风险进行的风险防范策略,并提出了具体的实现路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of Auto-monitoring System for Urban Wastewater (AMSURC) is to solve some problems, such asrelatively less monitoring frequency in laboratory and sampling error. And, it can reflect the real situation of urban drainage, provide effective monitoring data support for environmental policy-making at all levels. But in reality, the project management of AMSURC is an ongoing management process, involving many factors, large investment and long construction period. There is great uncertainty in project operation and management, so project risk is inevitable. The paper aims to establish effective project risk management model for AMSURC, and provide the basis for decision-making and large-scale promotion. The research can enrich and improve water management and risk management and related theories, improve monitoring data quality and the capacity for project sustainable operations.After a brief literature review and comment, this paper analyzed the applicability of project risk management based on ecological theory through systematic analysis method. This paper used the Delphi method for risk identification in AMSURC, and screened the project risk evaluation indices through the fuzzy gray decision model selection in the gray evaluation theory. This paper established project risk management model and structure model within risk management factor of the project using structural equation and establish a "defensive tree" model of AMSURC by analogy method.At last, this paper chose the gray decision model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for Liede project risk empirical evaluation., The conclsions are as following:(1) It is feasible to research the model of project risk management in AMSURC with ecology theory. The project of AMSURC has ecological characteristics. And there are systematic, collaborative, environmental adaptability requirements in AMSURC.(2) The main factors of the project risk could be summarized as: monitoring standards, project construction model, the atmosphere of project construction, the construction quality of system, human resources in project operation, project operations style, project decisions influence, et al.(3)This paper built a set of key risk assessment system eventually. The project risk could be found thoughout the project life cycle(the demonstration phase-Build phase-Operate phase).(4) This paper established project risk management model and structure model within risk management factor of the project. Combined with the model, it could find that Some project risk management factors (for example:the staff, imfomation, management activities) have an important impact on the success of project risk management.(5) This paper proposed an eco-management mode firstly, and establish a "defensive tree" model of AMSURC. This model stressed the importance of holistic thinking; stressed interaction and dynamic balance among management factor; emphasized on the adaptation to management environment."Defensive tree" is an organic combination of root zone, trunk and canopy layer. Root zone mainly refers to personnel factors. Trunk layer mainly refers to project risk management process and information management. Canopy layer mainly refers to project culture, organizational management activities, equipment management, and data control. The "defensive tree" vividly depicted the process of project risk management, ecological balance between the internal management of project risk factors and the external environment.(6) Select water quality monitoring system of Liede sewage treatment plant which was in Guangzhou as Empirical object, the paper provided some specific risk strategies, combinating "defensive tree" model. One management strategy is from the perspective of management factors. The other is from the perspective of risk prevention and specific implementation path for Liede project.更多还原