【作者】 徐宗祥；

【导师】 周庆柱；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 土木工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 城市轨道交通产业在湖南的区域产业结构中具有重要意义,主要是因为该产业在建设投资期内具有别的产业无法比拟的产业关联效应,它能够带动区域内相关产业的快速发展,同时对于区域内产业结构的优化具有重要意义,因此研究其建设期的产业关联效应具有重要的现实意义。同时,理论上来看,虽然产业关联理论发展已经较为成熟,但是已有应用该理论来研究城市轨道交通产业关联效应的定量研究成果主要关注其建成运营以后的产业关联效应,而较少关注该产业在建设过程中带来产业关联效应。基于上述认识,本研究结合湖南城市轨道交通正在大规模建设的现实,运用完全信息下的静态博弈方法分析了湖南城市轨道交通建设的必要性,并进一步分析了其可行性。在此基础上,本研究从该产业的建设投资对其他产业的影响和该产业的建设投资对湖南当年投资乘数的影响等两个角度出发,系统研究了湖南轨道交通建设投资过程中的产业关联效应,在一定程度上拓展了产业关联理论在轨道交通产业关联研究中的应用,具有一定的理论创新意义。本研究在系统研究了湖南省城市轨道交通建设投资的产业关联效应的基础上,在充分把握了我国城市轨道交通产业发展相关政策和展望了我国城市轨道交通产业未来的政策发展趋势的基础上,从产业自身可持续发展和产业促进区域经济社会可持续发展两个角度提出了相关政策建议。本研究的创新主要体现在以下几方面：第一,本研究弥补了国内在城市轨道交通产业的产业关联效应方面研究的不足,为进一步全面认识城市轨道交通产业的产业关联效应打下了基础；第二,传统研究产业关联效应的视角基本都关注该产业建成运营以后的产业关联效应,而本研究的研究视角则关注于城市轨道交通建设投资的产业关联效应,这无疑是产业关联研究的视角创新；第三,本研究除了应用投入产出法从中观视角研究城市轨道交通建设投资的产业关联效应以外,还引入了当年投资乘数的测算及预测方法,从宏观视角研究了该产业的建设投资对国民经济运行的影响,从而弥补了产业关联研究在宏观层面的不足。通过本项研究,可以帮助政府决策部门充分认识到湖南城市轨道交通产业的战略地位,并明确发展城市轨道交通产业是解决湖南城市交通问题的最有效途径,是建立湖南可持续发展交通系统的关键,同时也是优化全省城市发展布局的重要手段,更是加快全省经济一体化进程的需要,从而为促进湖南城市轨道交通产业的可持续发展打下基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban rail transit industry is of great significance in Hunan industrial development pattern, mainly because the industry enjoys the industrial linkage effects that other industry cannot even to compare with. The industry can drive up rapid development of the relevant industries in the area and at the same time it can be important for the optimization of the industrial structure. Therefore, it is practically vital to analyze industrial linkage effects during the construction period. Meanwhile, although theoretically, it seems that the Theory of Industrial Linkage has become mature, however, by applying this theory to study on the industrial relevant effects of urban rail transit industry,more stress have been put on the industrial relevant effects after operation, less on the industrial relevant effects brought by the construction of this industryBased on the understanding talked above, this study, together with the fact that the urban rail transit is under a large-scale construction, has analyzed the necessity of urban rail transit construction in Hunan with Complete information static game and made a further explanation of its feasibility. On that basis, from the perspectives of the effects brought by the construction investment of this industry to other industries and to investment multiplier effect Hunan province, the system made a study on the industrial relevant effects in the process of investing of urban rail transit construction in Hunan, and to some extent, expand the application of the Theory of Industrial Linkage to rail transit, hence a great influence of theoretically innovation.This study, based on the study of industrial relevant effects of urban rail transit construction investment in Hunan, on the full information of relevant policies of urban mass transit industry and on the tendency of the future changes of its policies, has provided several suggestions to the relevant policies from the angels of industrial sustainable development and that industry should promote area economy.The innovations of this study are mainly reflected in the following aspects:firstly, the study has made up the shortage of the domestic study in the industrial relevant effect of urban rail transit industry,and has laid the foundation for further comprehensive understanding of industrial relevant effect in urban rail transit industry; Secondly, traditional research pay more attention to industrial relevant effect of the operation stage, while this study focuses on the industrial relevant effect of the urban rail transit construction investment stage, undoubtedly this is a innovation of the perspective in the industrial relevant effect; Thirdly, this study not only has applied input-output analysis to study industrial relevant effect of urban rail transit industry from the perspective of medium, but also introduced the estimating and forecasting methods of investment multiplier, then research the influence of this industry’s construction investment to the the national economy operation from the macro perspective,so as to made up the shortage of the industrial relevant study in the macroscopic level.The study can help the government decision-making departments to fully understand the strategic position of urban mass transit industry in Hunan, and make clear that the development of urban mass transit industry is the most effective way to solve the traffic problems in Hunan, is key to build the sustainable development of transportation system in Hunan and meanwhile is a prime way to optimize the urban development layout in Hunan and even a necessary part for the provincial economic integration, so as to lay a foundation for the sustainable development for the urban mass transit industry in Hunan.更多还原