【作者】 邹筱；

【导师】 胡振华；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 工商管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 物流外包已成为装备制造型企业的重要发展趋势之一。而风险管理作为装备制造型企业物流外包管理的一个重要组成部分,由于内涵丰富、内容广泛、方式多样化,已经对装备制造型企业的整体管理产生深刻而广泛的影响。研究装备制造型企业物流外包风险的识别、评价,分析物流外包的风险控制、风险监控及装备制造企业物流外包风险管理中的外包商选择,具有一定的理论和实践意义。本文以装备制造企业物流外包风险管理为研究对象,在前人研究的基础上,针对我国装备制造企业物流外包风险的实际特点,利用文献分析法、专家访谈法、管理决策分析方法、定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,按照“风险的评价——风险的控制——风险管理中的外包商选择”这样一个合乎逻辑的过程展开,层层递进,较系统、全面地研究了我国装备制造企业物流外包风险的评价、控制及其外包商选择。首先,本章从装备制造企业发展现状及运行状况的分析出发、探讨了风险管理理论、企业物流外包相关理论、代理理论、实物期权理论、控制论。这些内容共同构成了装备制造企业物流外包风险管理研究的理论基础。其次,从掌握我国装备制造企业发展现状及运行状况分析出发,把握装备制造企业物流外包的风险点,讨论了装备制造企业物流外包风险识别的相关内容,接着对装备制造企业物流外包的风险的识别方法进行讨论,在此基础上,对装备制造企业物流外包的风险进行了的识别,最后应用FAHP对装备制造企业物流外包的风险识别进行了实证分析,根据实证分析结果,可以看出各个风险因素对装备制造企业物流外包的风险的权重大小依次是信息不对称风险、法律制度风险、决策风险、宏观经济环境风险等。第三,本文根据企业物流外包风险的实际情况,建立了装备制造企业物流外包和风险评价框架。运用系统工程的解释结构模型(ISM)方法对装备制造企业物流外包风险结构进行了实证分析。研究表明装备制造行业中有很多物流的外包不成功,主要原因是通过一个四级的递接层次结构的主要因素构成。对其中的现象分析如下：在企业的最底层缺少外包商的资金支持；第二层中导致装备制造企业物流外包失败有很多直接性的因素；对于需求分析做的不是很准确,这样就会导致在实施项目的过程中出现需求变更；装备制造企业的物流外包服务水平达不到企业的需要；企业在项目的实施中需求不断发生变化。第四,在对装备制造企业物流外包风险评价阐述的基础上,对装备制造企业物流外包的风险控制进行了详细分析。运用实物期权理论及委托代理理论对装备制造企业物流外包成本风险控制及企业物流外包执行过程中的质量风险控制进行了分析。第五,为了解决装备制造企业物流外包风险监控问题,本章首先对装备制造企业物流外包风险监控指标体系进行了设计,接着对装备制造业对物流外包风险的监控线进行确定,然后运用先进的分析方法和分析手段,如广义规则挖掘方法对装备制造企业在物流外包风险监控进行每一环节做出准确分析,以确保监控结果的准确性和有效性。最后从完善装备制造企业物流风险监控方式和优化物流外包行业风险和监控流程两个方面提出了装备制造企业物流外包风险监控对策。第六,从分析外包商选择失误可能带来的风险入手,建立了外包商选择的信息甄别模型。接着采用层次分析法和群决策聚类分析相结合的综合方法建立装备制造企业物流外包风险管理中外包商能力评价指标体系,通过问卷调查,得到装备制造企业物流外包商能力评价指标的比较判断矩阵,通过矩阵计算,得到单个专家的评价指标权重；通过模糊分析计算对该外包商进行综合评价。最后探讨了选择外包商风险控制的机理：首先应正确了解企业本身和外包商的风险选择,其次合理规划风险激励比例,第三与外包商签订的合约一定要选择合适的。总之,本文在吸收和借鉴物流外包风险管理方法理论的基础上,将装备制造企业物流外包的风险管理分为风险评价、风险控制、风险监控和进行外包商的选择探讨,并通过结构模型(ISM)、层次分析法(AHP)和群决策聚类量化分析结果,尝试建立我国装备制造企业物流外包的风险控制系统,这将对我国装备制造型企业物流外包风险规避和防范方面提供一些理论和方法上的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Currently, outsourcing has become one of the important trends of the logistics industry. Have a profound understanding of the important role of the supply and demand sides, but in practice, the logistics outsourcing difficult, often interrupted, or even failure. Reveal the equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk evaluation and analysis of the logistics outsourcing risk control, risk monitoring, the research equipment manufacturing logistics outsourcing risk management of the contractor selection, and for the promotion of domestic enterprise logistics outsourcing and the development of the domestic logistics industry has important theoretical significance and application value. Logistics outsourcing risk management of the equipment manufacturing industry, on the basis of previous studies, the actual characteristics of the logistics outsourcing risk for China’s equipment manufacturing industry, the use of literature analysis, expert interviews, management and decision analysis methods, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method of combining, in accordance with the evaluation of the risk-risk control Risk management contractor selection is a logical process to commence progressive layers, more systematic and comprehensive study of China’s equipment manufacturing the industry logistics outsourcing risk evaluation, control their choice of contractor.First chapter starting from the equipment manufacturing industry development status and health analysis to explore the theory of risk management, enterprise logistics outsourcing theory, agency theory, real options theory, cybernetics. These elements together form the theoretical basis of the equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk management.Then, according to the actual situation of the equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk, set up the equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk evaluation framework. The team nominations mode empirical analysis, prioritization of the equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk outsourcing decision-making mistakes was obtained through a questionnaire survey, logistics outsourcing risk control equipment manufacturing industry, mainly the contractor selection errors and inaccurate demand, the use of logistics outsourcing risk structure of systems engineering Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) method of the equipment manufacturing industry, the empirical analysis through questionnaires, the mental model of the equipment manufacturing industry unsuccessful logistics outsourcing risk factors, and then through the matrix operations, the equipment manufacturing industry the logistics outsourcing unsuccessful four Hierarchical to the hierarchy model, model, and equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk management made some suggestions.Third, for the equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk evaluation of group decision-making in the presence of uncertainty and complexity of the problem, this paper proposed Fuzzy Rough Group Decision Making Model ((FuzzyRough Group, Decision-Making. FRGDM) for the evaluation of the equipment manufacturing industry logistics The outsourcing risk new ideas and in-depth discussion of several key issues in the FRGDM model, including attribute reduction, attribute evaluators weights calculated and integrated risk assessment model to maintain the advantages of fuzzy group decision-making to avoid evaluation deviation, personal preferences to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the evaluation, which has been verified in the equipment manufacturing enterprise logistics outsourcing risk management project evaluation group decision making.Fourth, the paper on the basis set forth in logistics outsourcing risk evaluation of the equipment manufacturing industry, the equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk and risk factors were analyzed in detail. Real options theory and care agency theory to analyze the quality of the implementation process of the equipment manufacturing industry, the cost of logistics outsourcing risk control and equipment manufacturing logistics outsourcing risk control. On this basis, building the value of risk assessment, risk control costs, the risk of loss, including multi-target risk control model.Fifth, this paper presents the integrated spiral model based the VPFRS equipment manufacturing logistics outsourcing risk monitoring. Discusses the equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk analysis the difficulty and VPFRS applicable reason this field, then the process of mining equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk rules; proposed two methods, that is allowed to set down and the best classification error the interval rule mining method to study the dependence calculated the generalized rule mining rule criteria, decision rules, and how to choose the best key issues allow classification error intervals. Provided examples prove that the algorithm has strong rule mining capacity, fault tolerance and robustness, and high computational efficiency advantages, and the spiral monitoring model to assist decision-makers to better analyze and control equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk.Sixth, the the logistics outsourcing success or failure of the equipment manufacturing industry largely depends on the selection of the contractor, most of the risk from contracting parties, and therefore, in the implementation process of the equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing contractor evaluation and selection an important part. Comprehensive evaluation method, the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and group decision making clustering analysis equipment manufacturing logistics outsourcing contractor capacity evaluation index system, to solve the various experts from different areas with different knowledge background, or an indicator with a different point of view of understanding, or by the expert’s own preferences and other factors affect the judge for a decision problem is likely to have a larger problem of inconsistency, so as to select a qualified contractor to provide a scientific evaluation mechanisms and models.In short, absorb and learn from the theory of logistics outsourcing risk management methods based on the equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk management into risk assessment, risk control, risk monitoring and contractor selection to explore and structural model (ISM), quantitative analysis of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and group decision making clustering results, try to establish a logistics outsourcing risk control system of China’s equipment manufacturing industry, which will bring China’s equipment manufacturing industry, logistics outsourcing risk avoidance and prevention to provide some of the theoretical and methodological reference.更多还原