【作者】 邹晓霞；

【导师】 李玉娥；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业气象与气候变化， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 气候变化已成为全球性环境问题，其已经且将继续对自然环境和人类生活产生影响。农业是受气候变化影响最脆弱的部门之一，气候变化对我国农业的影响弊大于利。有效应对气候变化应将减缓与适应并重，但目前我国农业领域尚没有系统的从减排、适应和成本效益三方面评价气候变化应对措施的研究成果，所以本研究在分析农业领域主要减排和适应措施的基础上，筛选节水灌溉和保护性耕作这两种国家推荐且实施范围广的对我国农业生产有重要意义的措施作为研究对象，对其减排和适应效果及成本效益进行量化分析，以期为国家有效应对气候变化和实现经济的可持续发展提供技术支撑。本研究主要结果如下：1.就减缓气候变化而言，节水灌溉和保护性耕作均有积极的效果，2010年节水灌溉实施的总CO2当量减排量可达315.18～683.04万吨，保护性耕作可达1276.87~2584.16万吨。不同灌溉措施的排放强度与单位面积灌水量和提水扬程显著相关，提升水分利用率和地下水位可以降低灌溉过程的温室气体排放；保护性耕作过程的温室气体排放可能会部分甚至全部抵消土壤的固碳减排量，所以保护性耕作体系下温室气体排放通量的监测必须引起高度重视。2.就适应气候变化而言，2010年节水灌溉措施的总节水量可达316.5～478.5亿立方米，约占2010年农业总供水量的8.58%～12.97%，若节约的水资源用于扩大灌溉面积（将旱地变成水浇地），理论上可增加粮食产量1468~3015万吨，另外，由于水分利用率提高，节水灌溉当季可直接增加粮食产量2439.42~3101.99万吨；保护性耕作在实施过程中可以提高土壤水分利用率，减少土壤侵蚀，提高或保持土壤肥力，增加粮食产量，2010年保护性耕作实施约增加粮食产量172.30万吨。3.就措施实施的经济可行性而言：在综合考虑减排和适应收益后，节水灌溉和保护性耕作都有很好的经济可行性，但不同的是，相对于传统灌溉，节水灌溉措施中除防渗渠道外其他措施的实施都需要额外追加成本，而保护性耕作相对于传统耕作却能节约成本，每公顷平均节约781.7元；在考虑减排和适应收益的情况下，节水灌溉实施的总收益可达1068.22（微灌）~1783.68（防渗渠道）元/公顷，保护性耕作可达1562.47~2192.53元/公顷。4.基于本研究结果和我国的区域特色，对节水灌溉发展提出下述建议：1）加强水资源利用的宏观调控，统筹协调地下水和表水利用，积极推广节水灌溉技术；2）在发展中，若为求高减排效果，资金充足时建议选择微灌，不足时建议选防渗渠道；为求高适应效果，资金充足时建议选喷灌，不足时建议选防渗渠道；对保护性耕作的发展提出下述建议：1）研究和开发适宜不同地区种植特色的保护性耕作技术体系；2）开发和推广适宜于不同种植模式的配套农机具；3）探索和实施能调动农户积极性的风险补偿机制；4）监测和明确保护性耕作体系的温室气体排放通量；5）研究和推广与保护性耕作技术配套的杂草病虫害综合防治技术。本研究虽然探索性的评估了节水灌溉和保护性耕作在应对气候变化中的效果和成本效益，但是由于气候变化相关研究和评估方法还存在较大不确定性以及受到数据可获得性的限制，本研究目前还存在一些不足，建议后续加大研究力度和深度，以期更好地为我国有效应对气候变化提供技术支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 Climate change has become a global environment issue, which has had and will go on havingimpacts on natural environment and human life. Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectorsaffected by climate change. The effects of climate change on agriculture in China do more harm thangood. An effective response to climate change should include both mitigation and adaptation. But thereis no systematic researches focus on the effects of emission reduction, adaptation and cost-effectivenessof measures coping with climate change in China. So based on the review of response measures inagriculture in China, water saving irrigaiton (WSI) and conservation tillage (CT) which recommendedby Chinese government have been chosed for sduty. And this research quantitatively studies the effectsof mitigation and datpation and cost-effectiveness of WSI and CT in coping with climate change, with aview to provide technical support to address climate change effectively.The main results are as follows:1. As to the mitigation, both WSI and CI have positive effects on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionreduction. In2010, the CO2equivalent emission reduction of WSI is3.15～6.83Mt, that of CI is12.77~25.84Mt. The emission intensity of WSI significantly correlates with the amount ofirrigation water and pumping head, and emission intensity of irrigation can be reduced by theimprovement of water use efficiency and the increase of groundwater level. The GHG emission fluxfrom the process of CT may partially or even fully offset the emission reduction achieved by Soilcarbon sequestration. So great importance must be attached to the GHG emission flux of CT.2. As to the adaptation, the saved water achieved by WSI in2010is31.65～47.85Bm3, whichaccounting for8.58%~12.97%of water used for irrigation in the same year. If the saved water usefor expanding irrigated farm land. In theory, the possibly newly increased grain yield is about514.68~30.15Mt. The directly increased grain yield achieved by the impovement of the water useefficiency stands at24.39~31.02Mt. The implementation of CT can improve water use efficienfy,reduce soil erosion, improve or maintain soil fertility, increase food production. In2010, theincreased grain yield stands at1.72Mt.3. As to economic feasibility, when soncider the totoal benefit of mitigation and adaptaion, both WSIand CT have good economic feasibility. But the difference is that when compared to traditionalirrigation all the WSIs need additional cost input except canal ling irrigation, while when comparedto traditional tillage CT can save781.7RMB/ha. The total benefit achieved by mitigation andadaptaion of WSI is1068.22(micro-irrigation)~1783.68(canal ling irrigation) RMB/ha, that of CTis1562.47~2192.53RMB/ha.4. Based on the results of this research and the regional characteristics of China, this research makefollowing suggestions for the development of WSI:1) It is important to strengthen the regulationand control of the use of water resources, integrate and coordinate use of groundwater and surfacewater, and promote water-saving irrigation techniques actively;2) In the development of WSI, if forhigh emission reduction, the micro-irrigation is recommended when have sufficient capital, orotherwise canal ling irrigation; if for high effects of adaptaion, sprinkler is recommended when have sufficient capital, or otherwise canal ling irrigation. For the development of CT, suggestionsare made as follows:1) develop and promote different farm machineres to support differentcropping patterns of CT;2) research and develop different CT technical system to suitable forcultivations in different regions;3) explore and implement risk compensation mechanism tomobilize the enthusiasm of farmers;4) Monitor and make clear the GHG emissions flux from CTsystem;5) research and promote the integrated pest management techniques to supporte theimplement of CT technology.This research studied the effects and cost-benefit of mitigation and adaptaion of WSI and CT, butdue to the uncertainty of climate change research and assessment methods and the constraints of dataavailability, there are still some shortcomings and points need further study. More efforts and researchesneed to be carried out in order to provide technical support to cope with climate change effectively.更多还原