【作者】 何艳秋；

【导师】 庞皓；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 统计学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 近百年来全球气候正在经历一次以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化,经济发展和环境保护之间的矛盾越来越突出。一系列科学研究都表明,二氧化碳等温室气体排放与全球升温存在直接的关系,随着气候变暖带来的危害越更明显,各个国家都在积极寻求碳减排途径,以便以最小的经济代价带来最大的减排效应。随着发展中国家经济的快速增长和二氧化碳排放量的增长,发达国家越来越倾向于要求发展中国家控制碳排放和承担减排义务。1997年《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三次缔约方大会之后,发达国家纷纷向发展中国家施加压力,他们认为,要实现把大气中温室气体浓度控制在防止气候系统免受危险的干扰水平上的目标,中国、印度等发展中国家必须要实施大量的减排行动。目前,我国已成为了世界上经济增长最快的国家之一,随着我国工业化和城市化进程的加快,化石能源消费量和二氧化碳排放量也大幅度增加,成为了部分发达国家通过能源消耗限制中国经济增长的借口。他们认为中国应该承担起更多的减排义务,使得我国面临着巨大的减排压力。为了应对国际减排舆论和符合我国自身的可持续发展,我国在减排上也进行了不断的努力。在人类应对气候变暖的减排过程中有两个前提,第一个是各个国家各自面临多少减排量,这一点在各种国际协商会议的基础上已经取得了一定成效,应对措施也已形成一种不断发展演化并日益完善的国际制度框架,共同承担减排义务成为了国际社会的一致声音。第二个是各个国家内部各个地区面临多少减排量,目前仍在探索阶段,尤其是我国区域差距较大,只能通过区域分解、分区控制的方法实现整体减排目标。本文正是基于这样一个背景,从最终需求的角度出发,利用投入产出和计量经济模型相结合的手段探索了能源二氧化碳总量的地区分配方法,在理论和实践上均有重大意义。从理论意义上来看,把碳排放作为支撑经济发展的一个重要要素引入,认为各个地区在居民公平消费和经济健康发展基础上的二氧化碳排放需求应该同等的得到满足,从理论上丰富了发展经济学各个地区公平发展权利的内涵,并且这种既实现全国环境保护目标,又实现经济增长需求的地区分配方案还把环境经济学中经济发展与环境保护如何相协调具体化了,具有重大的理论意义；从实践意义上来看,本文的能源二氧化碳总量地区分配方法充分考虑了地区的差异化,是各个地区经过努力可以实现的控制目标,在国内碳交易平台还未成熟的情况下为国家进行地区能源二氧化碳排放考核提供了依据,并且充分考虑公平性的能源二氧化碳初始分配也为国内碳交易平台的建立奠定了基础,使国内.碳交易平台建立之后碳资源能够实现公平、有效的配置,再者本文的能源二氧化碳总量控制地区分配的公平性原则和效率性原则也为未来碳税的制定指明了方向,具有重大的实践意义。本文主要解决了以下几个问题：1、国家提出的是碳强度控制承诺,要实现正真意义上的减排,必须要从碳排放总量控制上进行,也就是说现阶段的碳强度目标只是到总量目标的一个过渡阶段,给经济发展充分调整的时间,所以本文要解决的第一个问题就是把国家碳强度降低承诺转变成总量控制承诺,为后文的分析奠定基础。2、要实现国家碳排放总量控制目标,很有必要研究过去我国能源二氧化碳变动的历史规律以及影响因素,为我国未来的减排提供历史经验或者不足,所以本文解决的第二个问题就是分析影响全国能源二氧化碳总量的各个因素及其影响程度如何。3、国家要实现碳排放总量控制目标的地区分解必须要考虑各个地区能够实现的能源二氧化碳总量目标,这就必须要考虑各个地区的差异化发展情况,所以,本文解决的第三个问题就是我国各个区域碳排放差异性的程度以及引起这些差异的原因是什么。4、由于国家的整体产业布局需要和各个地区发展的比较优势不同,地区间通过产品流动产生了碳转移,而在国家碳排放总量的地区分配中必须要把地区间的碳转移因素考虑进去,所以本文解决的第四个问题就是省际间过去存在多大的碳转移,影响碳转移的主要因素是什么,以及未来的碳转移情况如何。5、在解决前面几个问题的基础上,本文提出了如何进行全国能源二氧化碳排放权的区域分配,既保证公平性,又适当考虑效率性。为了解决上面提出的问题,本文从以下几章组织了全文的内容：第一章：绪论。本章主要介绍本文的选题背景、选题意义、研究思路和可能的创新点。第二章：碳排放及其碳排放控制的理论综述。本章从碳排放相关概念、测算方法、碳排放控制方法以及碳排放权初始分配四个方面总结和评述了过去的文献。第三章：全国能源二氧化碳排放现状和控制目标分析。本章主要以描述统计的方法分析了中国历年来的能源二氧化碳排放总量、能源二氧化碳强度和人均能源二氧化碳排放等情况,并把我国提出的到2020年全国碳强度较2005年降低45%的目标转变成了总量控制目标。第四章：全国能源二氧化碳排放主要影响因素的指数分解。本章从碳排放影响因素的理论分析入手,界定了高碳排行业和测算了地区全要素生产率,并通过碳排放因素分配分析法对引起能源二氧化碳排放总量各因素的影响程度进行了研究,一方面得到了各个因素的影响程度,另一方面也为未来的减排行动提供了可供参考的历史经验。第五章：地区能源二氧化碳排放差异和影响因素的建模分析。本章从各省市能源二氧化碳排放总量和强度的差异化分析入手,分别从经济因素、人口因素、能源因素和技术因素四个方面考察了引起地区碳排放差异的理论原因,并通过建立面板模型寻求引起地区能源二氧化碳排放差异的数量规律。第六章：各地区碳排放转移的特征研究。本章首先分析了各个地区国际贸易和省际贸易的总量和行业结构,其次计算国际贸易和省际贸易产品的载碳量,再次通过产业结构的变动预测了各个地区能源二氧化碳的省际净调出和净调入占比变动情况,为下文全国能源二氧化碳的地区分配奠定了基础。第七章：全国二氧化碳排放总量控制目标的地区分解研究。在前文研究的基础上,本章从最终需求的角度出发,利用投入产出和计量经济模型相结合的方法对国家能源二氧化碳总量目标进行了地区分配,充分的考虑居民消费需求的公平性、经济发展需求的公平性、碳转移的公平性,以及能源生产力的效率性。第八章：总结与展望。本章对全文进行总结,并提出了本文研究的不足和将来进一步研究的方向。本文的创新之处主要体现在三个方面：1.本文探索了一种从最终需求角度出发对全国能源二氧化碳总量控制目标进行地区分解的合理方式,这种分配方式充分考虑了消费需求公平性、经济发展需求公平性、地区间碳转移公平性以及能源生产力的效率性,解决了目前碳排放控制目标区域分解的难题。2.本文将因素分配分析法和投入产出法相结合,对全国能源二氧化碳排放的影响因素进行了分解,从数量上测算了各个因素的影响程度,论证了中国控制能源二氧化碳的历史经验与薄弱环节,得出了很有意义的结论。具体揭示出：最终需求规模的扩大是导致全国能源二氧化碳排放总量增加的主要因素,其中投资规模对全国能源二氧化碳排放的影响最为突出；目前中国净出口还并未扩大能源二氧化碳排放,甚至还抑制了能源二氧化碳排放的增长,但是应注意到净出口结构变化有扩大能源二氧化碳排放的趋势；行业完全碳排放系数的变动对能源二氧化碳排放总量具有有效的抑制作用,技术进步和需求结构调整是今后控制能源二氧化碳排放的最重要途径。3.本文探索了一种依据中国地区扩展投入产出表测算地区省际贸易隐含能源二氧化碳转移量的方式。特别是具体测算出了各地区省际贸易和国际贸易中隐含的能源二氧化碳排放转移数量,为全国能源二氧化碳排放总量控制目标合理的进行地区分解创造了条件。同时,由于资料和个人研究水平的局限,本文也存在一些不足。一方面是由于缺乏更近期的投入产出表数据,本文的研究只能利用2002年和2007年的投入产出数据,特别是在利用地区碳转移对各个地区分得的能源二氧化碳总量进行调整的时候,由于资料局限只能利用2002年的截面数据进行预测,这种预测的准确性还有待进一步验证。另一方面本文为了解决多重共线性问题采用了主成分面板回归,虽然得到的结论从理论上来解释比较合理,而主成分回归分析的缺陷是无法对原始变量的显著性进行统计检验。经过研究,本文得到了以下建议：第一,国家在进行碳排放总量控制的时候必须要根据各个地区的发展差异分配差异化的碳减排目标；第二,国家可以通过引导省际碳排放净调入的地区对向其输送产品的主要省市提供资金或技术支持的形式以实现全国减排的目标；第三,要充分发挥全要素生产率在碳减排中的作用；第四,统筹全国的产业布局,并进一步提高电力热力生产供应业、石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、交通运输仓储邮政业、煤炭开采和洗选业、非金属矿物制品业和化学工业等重点减排行业的能源利用效率；第五,进一步完善国家与碳排放相关的数据编制方法,充分发挥国家统计体系在碳排放控制中的作用。第六,应该努力调整进出口产品结构实现碳减排。更多还原

【Abstract】 The past century, the global climate is undergoing significant changes to warming as the main feature, The contradiction between economic development and environmental protection become more and more obvious. Series of scientific research show that there is a direct relationship between carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. More and more apparent as the harm of climate warming. Various countries are now actively seeking carbon reduction pathway. In order to minimize the economic costs of the largest emission reduction effect. With the rapid economic growth of developing countries and the growth of carbon dioxide emissions. Developed countries increasingly tend to require developing countries to control carbon emissions and undertake emission reduction obligations. After the Third Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in1997. The developed countries One after another put pressure on developing countries. They believe that to achieve the control the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to prevent dangerous interference level on the climate system from target. China, India and other developing countries have to implement a large number of actions to reduce emissions.At present China has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world’s countries. With the accelerated process of industrialization and urbanization. Both fossil energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are significant increasing. It has also become an excuse for some developed countries to limit China’s economic growth through energy consumption. They think China should take on more emission reduction obligations. China is facing tremendous pressure to reduce emissions. In order to cope with the international conservation opinion and in line with the sustainable development of our own. Our continuously make efforts in reducing emissions.There are two premises in the human response to climate warming abatement process. The first is how much emission reductions to facing for each of the individual countries. It has achieved some success in various international consultative meeting. The response also has formed a constant evolution and increasingly sophisticated international institutional framework. Undertakeing emission reduction obligations has become the unanimous voice of the international community. The second is is how much emission reductions to facing for various countries. It is still in the exploratory stage. Especially in china,Because there is large regional disparities. The partition control method to achieve overall emission reduction targets only through domain decomposition. This article is based on a background. In the point of final demand. Using input-output and econometric models to explore the regional distribution of the total energy carbon dioxide method. There are great significance in theory and practice In he point of theoretical sense. The introduction of carbon emissions as an important factor in supporting economic development. The carbon dioxide emission requirements for the residents fair consumer and healthy economic development should be met equally. Theoretically enrich the connotation of equitable development rights in development Economics, The egion allocation scheme which both achieve the national environmental protection goals and achieve economic growth needs make environmental protection and economic growth to Concrete. It is great theoretical significance.In the point of view of practice sense. The area allocation method considers regional differences fully. The regions can be achieved through the efforts. It provieded basis for egional energy carbon dioxide emissions assessment before domestic carbon trading platform is not yet ripe. And fully consider a fair energy carbon dioxide initial allocation also laid the foundation for the establishment of domestic carbon trading platform. The establishment of domestic carbon trading platform to be able to achieve a fair and effective carbon allocation of resources. Furthermore, the energy total control of carbon dioxide the principle of fairness and efficiency of the regional distribution principle also pointed out the direction for the future formulation of a carbon tax. It have great practical significance.This paper is mainly to solve the following problems:1. Countries proposed carbon intensity control commitment. But to achieve the emission reductions in true sense.We must be seen in the total amount of carbon emissions control. Carbon intensity target is only a transitional stage to the total target. It gives the economic development sufficient respite. So the first question to be addressed in this article is to reduce the national carbon intensity commitment into total control commitment. To lay the foundation for later analysis.2. Studying of the laws of history as well as the impact of changes in energy carbon dioxide factors are very important for the achievement of the country’s total carbon emissions control targets.It provids historical experience or insufficient for future emission reduction. This article addresses the second question is the impact of carbon dioxide in the national energy total impact of various factors.3. Region decomposition for countries to meet the carbon emissions target must take into account the various regions to achieve energy amount of carbon dioxide. Developments must take into account the differences in various regions, This article addresses the third problem is that the degree of differences of various regions in China carbon emissions as well as the cause of these differences.4.Because the country’s overall industrial layout needs and the comparative advantages of the various regional development. Regional carbon transfer through the product flow. During the regional distribution of the total carbon emissions,Countries must take the carbon transfer factors into distribution, This article addresses the fourth question is the inter-provincial existed in the past how much carbon transfer, what are the main factors affect carbon transfer, and how future carbon transfer.5. on the basis of the few questions. This paper presents a how regional distribution of national energy carbon dioxide emissions, Both to ensure fairness, but also due to consider the efficiency.In order to solve the problems mentioned above, we organized a full-text content from the following chapters:Chapter1:Introduction.This chapter introduces the research background, the significance of the topic, research ideas and possible innovations.Chapter2:Theory of carbon emissions and carbon emission control. This chapter is from the initial allocation of carbon emissions calculation method, the influencing factors of carbon emissions, carbon emissions control method and carbon emissions four summary and review of the literature of the past. Chapter3:analysis of national energy carbon dioxide emissions status and control objectives. This chapter is mainly used descriptive statistics method to anlyse energy carbon dioxide emissions, energy and carbon dioxide intensity and energy per capita carbon dioxide emissions in China over the years. And China has proposed to the2020carbon intensity target of45%reduction compared to2005was transformed into total control objectives.Chapter4:National statistical analysis of the main factors of energy carbon dioxide emissions, this chapter uses the2002and2007input-output table. Throught Input-output structural decomposition method to anlyse the reason of changing of total carbon dioxide emissions and energy CO2intensity of various factors. On the one hand has been the impact of various factors, The other hand, historical experience for reference for future mitigation actions.Chapter5:Statistical analysis of the regional energy differences and the impact of carbon dioxide emissions factors. This chapter start from a differentiated analysis of the total volume and intensity of the provincial and municipal energy carbon dioxide emissions. Seek indicators from four economic factors, demographic factors, energy factors and technical factors.using component regression model to seek law to causing carbon dioxide emissions differences.Chapter6:transfer of statistical studies of the carbon emissions of the various regions.. This chapter first analyzes the various areas of international trade and the total amount of inter-provincial trade and industry structure. Second, calculate the carbon load of international trade and inter-provincial trade products. Predicted by changes in the industrial structure of the various regional energy carbon dioxide provincial net transferred out and transferred to the accounting for changes. Laid the foundation for the geographical distribution of the carbon dioxide below the national energy.Chapter7:Studying country’s total carbon dioxide emissions control areas decomposition. This chapter from the point of view of the final demand. Using input-output and econometric models to Regional distributio of carbon dioxide in the national energy goals. Fully consideration of demographic factors fairness, the fairness of the level of economic development, carbon transfer fairness, and efficiency of energy productivity.Chapter8:Summary and Outlook. Summary of the full text of this chapter, and the lack of research in this article and future directions for further research..The innovation of this paper lies in four areas:1、This article explores a departure from the final demand perspective on national energy carbon dioxide goal of total control region decomposition reasonable manner, this allocation is fully taken into account consumer demand fairness, the fairness of the requirements of economic development, regional the carbon transfer fairness andenergy productivity, efficiency, solve the problem of the decomposition of carbon emissions target area.2、 Factors analysis and input-output combined factors affecting the decomposition of the carbon dioxide emissions of the national energy quantitatively measure the degree of influence of various factors, demonstrated control energy carbon dioxide historical experience and weak links, tooa meaningful conclusion. Specifically reveals:the expansion of final demand is a major factor in the increase in the national energy total carbon dioxide emissions,: in which the scale of investment in the most prominent national energy carbon dioxide emissions; China’s net exports did not expand energy carbon dioxide emissions, even suppression growth of energy carbon dioxide emissions, but it should be noted that the changes in structure of net exports expand energy carbon dioxide emissions; effective inhibitory effect of changes in the industry completely carbon emission factors for energy total carbon dioxide emissions, technological progress and demand structure adjustment is the most important ways to control energy carbon dioxide emissions.3、This article explores a basis for expansion in China amount of energy transfer of carbon dioxide put into the output table estimates the inter-provincial trade implied. The specific estimates implied in the various regions of inter-provincial and international trade the number of transfer of energy carbon dioxide emissions, total carbon dioxide emissions for the national energy control objectives reasonable decomposition region to create the conditions.The same time, due to the limitations of the information and personal research level, there are also some shortcomings. The one hand, due to the lack of more recent input-output table data, this study can only use input-output data for2002and2007, especially in the use of regional carbon energy transferred to the share of each region to adjust the amount of carbon dioxide, because of data limitations can only use the2002cross-sectional data were predicted accuracy of this prediction remains to be further verified. On the other hand this paper in order to solve the problem of multicollinearity using principal component panel regression, although the conclusions from theory to explain more reasonable, and principal component regression analysis of the defect is not the original variables significant statistical test.Last, the paper obtained the following conclusions:First, the state during the control of the total carbon emissions must be differentiated according to the development of the various regions of difference allocation of carbon emission reduction targets; Second, the state can guide the inter-provincial carbon emissions net transferred to the regions major provinces and cities on its transport products in the form of financial or technical support in order to achieve the national reduction targets; third, give full play to the role of total factor productivity in carbon reduction; fourth co-ordinate the country’s industrial layout, and further improve the electricity and heat production and supply industry, oil processing and coking and nuclear fuel processing, metal smelting and rolling processing industry, transportation storage and postal services, coal mining and washing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry and the chemical industry energy efficiency and other key emission reduction industry; further improve the national carbon emissions data preparation methods, give full play to the role of national statistical systems in the control of carbon emissions.更多还原