【作者】 杨宇轩；

【导师】 尹庆双；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 劳动经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 一、研究选题及意义教育可以通过提高劳动者知识和技能的方式提高人力资本和劳动生产率并进一步促进经济增长(Schultz,1963; Lucas,1988)。受教育程度越高,人们更易于提高劳动生产率;受教育的规模越大,人力资本积累越丰富,则更能促进长期经济增长。这一公认的假设也曾被许多国家教育发展与经济增长的事实所证明(Zeira,2009)。按此理论,高等教育更能够促进经济增长。然而,近年来,众多学者(Barro and Sala-I-Martin,2004; Richard Vedder,2004; Risti Permani,2009等)研究发现高等教育发展并非一定促进经济增长。实际上,高等教育只有适应经济增长的需要,才能促进经济增长,否则,就会阻碍经济增长(Cohn&Geske,1989;蒋义,2010；樊安群,2005；叶飞文,2004等)。改革开放以来,我国高等教育经历了从恢复、调整、快速发展的过程,并迅速过渡到大众化阶段。目前,虽然从总量上已经跃居世界第一,但在相对比例方面,与发达国家相比,还有很大差距,并且“就业难”与“招聘难”、结构性矛盾等初现端倪。在高等教育规模不断增加的同时,高等教育层次结构也一直不断地调整。改革开放初期以本科招生为主,现阶段本专科招生比例相当,研究生层次教育从零开始到大规模培养。这也从另外一个侧面使我们反思,改革开放以来,我国高等教育层次结构调整是否适应和促进了转型期间经济增长。另外在我国经济发展较为关键的“十二五”期间,为实现其总目标,我国高等教育层次结构应何种较合理的比例?因此,改革开放以来,高等教育层次结构调整与经济增长的关系如何成为本研究的主题。在以往的相关研究中,往往从高等教育对经济增长的贡献方面入手,较少从高等教育层次结构调整方面进行。高等教育有其自身的结构和体系,其二者之间的关系,实际上是高等教育结构调整与经济增长的适应与匹配问题。在高等教育结构体系中,始终存在总量和结构的矛盾(林荣日,2008),而在我国目前的研究中显然不足,甚至还未引起重视,也因此而造成教育发展规划的盲动性和混乱局面的主因,因此,从总量的角度,研究高等教育层次结构调整与经济增长的关系显得尤为重要,这对我国高等教育层次结构调整具有一定参考意义。二、研究内容、思路与方法根据本文的研究主题,研究内容如下：(1)在对教育与经济增长相关理论回顾的基础上,分析了高等教育层次结构与经济增长的关联机制。(2)系统梳理了改革开放以来我国高等教育层次结构调整与经济增长的历史关系。(3)从发达国家如日本、欧美以及新兴国家的相关经验和教训中得到启示,为我国高等教育层次结构调整提供一定的参考。(4)对我国改革开放以来高等教育层次结构调整与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究,进一步探明二者之间的相关关系。(5)根据“十二五”规划总目标计算与此相应的高等教育层次结构的合适比例。最后得出本研究的主要结论并提出相关政策建议。本文首先通过对我国目前高等教育规模扩大的现状与转型期间对不同人力资本需求不足的矛盾提出本研究的主题,对高等教育层次结构、经济增长相关理论进行回顾与综述：然后对我国改革开放以来高等教育层次结构调整与经济增长的历史关系进行梳理,并对美国、德国等发达国家高等教育层次结构调整的经验与教训进行了总结；并根据改革开放以来的相关数据以及“十二五”规划总目标进行实证研究,最后得出本研究的主要结论并提出相关政策建议。本文采用定性与定量相结合、理论与实际相结合的方法进行研究,具体表现在：(1)文献资料法。首先回顾了高等教育层次接结构、经济增长相关理论,以及在以往研究文献基础上分析与讨论高等教育教育层次结构调整与经济增长的关联机制。(2)比较分析法。本研究分别就我国改革开放以来不同时期高等教育层次结构调整对经济增长进行纵向比较,并与发达国家日本、美国、欧洲国家以及新兴国家韩国的高等教育发展情况与经济增长进行横向比较。(3)多元统计方法。本文运用多元统计分析中的主成分分析法、非线性相关、Logistic回归等方法,使用计量统计软件Spss20.0对所获数据进行数据处理与分析。三、主要结论1.高等教育层次结构与经济增长的关联机制分别表现为静态和动态两种互动机理。从静态角度,它们二者之间通过两条路径发生互动作用：(1)高等教育层次结构对经济增长的作用机理：其一是高等教育层次结构通过提高人力资本满足、适应、引领经济结构的转变与升级促进经济增长,其二是高等教育规模的扩大其本身有利于拉动内需,带动相关产业发展,直接促进经济增长；(2)经济增长对高等教育层次结构的作用机理：其一是经济增长通过经济结构的转换与升级而制约或促进人力资本,再对高等教育层次结构产生制约或决定作用,其二是经济增长又为高等教育的发展提供更多的投入,从而促进或制约高等教育的发展。从动态角度,高等教育层次结构与经济增长的适应性调整是由政府、高校、市场、家庭多方主体博弈的结果。2.改革开放以来,为了适应和促进经济增长,我国高等教育层次结构一直处于调整状态,其二者的关系符合本研究所提出的关联机制。高等教育层次结构调整减少了高等教育资源浪费,更大程度地适应和促进了经济增长,我国高等教育层次结构调整的总体趋势是专科层次的规模及比例增长最快,研究生层次教育保持稳定增长的趋势,本科层次教育则保持下降趋势。但在各层次增长幅度来看,在结构调整中,专科层次和研究生层次波动幅度较大,本科层次波动幅度较小,本科层次是我国高等教育层次结构中的基本层次。3.无论发达资本主义国家美国、战后迅速崛起的日本,还是新兴工业国家韩国,以及职业教育非常发达的德国,本科教育层次均占主要地位,在高等教育结构中的比例都是最大。但各国国情不同,其比例变动过程不同。在高等教育大众化和普及化的过程中都大力发展了专科教育,其增长率都超过了本科和研究生层次的增长率,并为工业化提供大量技能型人才,为第三产业提供大量服务型人才。随着经济社会的发展,高等教育各层次普遍出现向上递进的趋势。在数量扩张之后,都经历了学历高消费的过程,经历了就业难与招聘难的阶段,从而引起社会各界对从关注数量到关注控制质量的转变和结构的调整。4.实证研究表明,改革开放以来,我国高等教育层次结构经历了与经济增长从不适应、调整到逐步适应的调整过程,二者之间呈显著非线性相关,具体拟合为三次曲线关系。5.利用主成分分析法和Logistic回归方法,根据“十二五”经济增长目标以及改革开放以来我国高等教育层次结构调整的变化过程,对“十二五”期间我国高等教育层次结构进行预测。结果表明,该期间专科、本科、研究生的招生比例为0.445：0.48：0.075,专科、本科、研究生招生增长比例平均为2.164%、1.626%和1.714%。四、主要创新1.从静态和动态两个维度系统梳理了高等教育层次结构与经济增长的关联机制,特别是分析了高等教育层次结构-人力资本结构-产业结构-经济增长的双向互动的作用机理,丰富了高等教育层次结构与经济增长关联关系的逻辑路径,并从博弈的角度探讨了高等教育层次结构调整是由多方主体为实现各自既定利益和目标在一定约束条件下博弈的结果。在以往的研究中,系统分析高等教育层次结构与经济增长的文献较少,大多集中于高等教育对经济增长的贡献方面,而且大多从一般意义上分析二者的关系,很少有从层次结构调整入手研究高等教育层次结构与经济增长的关系。2.从层次结构调整的角度系统梳理了改革开放以来我国高等教育发展与经济增长的历史关系,有积极的文献价值。在以往的研究中,大多体现在分别就高等教育与经济发展各自分阶段进行梳理、概括与总结,很少针对它们二者互动关系进行分析与讨论,而且近年来的研究主要针对1999年高校扩招后与经济增长的关系方面,因此,本文系统梳理了改革开放以来我国高等教育层次结构调整与经济增长的关系。3.在数据处理与分析中,避免了先入为主的方式,通过绘制散点图观察其分布特征而进行回归分析以及最优曲线拟合,结果表明,改革开放以来我国高等教育层次结构调整与经济增长之间呈显著非线性相关关系。在以往的研究中,大都直接使用线性相关的研究方法得出线性相关的结论,但根据高等教育层次结构调整与经济增长的现象与经验判断,它们二者之间的关系未必呈线性关系,因此,根据其散点分布特征再进行相应的模型拟合将显得更加合理。4.根据我国“十二五”规划,改革开放以来我国高等教育层次结构调整与经济增长的关系变化过程,对“十二五”期间我国高等教育层次结构的规模、结构比例和增长比例进行了预测。其结论将对我国“十二五”期间高等教育层次结构调整提供参考。五、研究不足与未来方向1.研究不足。(1)在研究高等教育层次结构对经济增长的作用中,高等教育各层次的投入对经济增长也具有重要影响。但由于目前还没有针对高等教育层次结构中不同层次的投入数据,因此,在本研究中,还不能就高等教育各层次在教育投入方面对经济增长的关系进行研究。(2)在研究高等教育层次结构与经济增长的互动机理中,其中分析了政府、高校、市场、家庭多方主体的博弈行为。实际上高等教育层次结构调整是一个博弈的结果。不足之处是缺乏对社会需求的实际调查数据支撑。(3)在对“十二五”期间高等教育层次结构中各层次数量的预测中,首先以“十二五”规划中的经济增长目标和产业结构比例来推测该期间各年的产业结构构成比例指标。在数据处理中只有按照平均增长速度计算第三产业数据,并根据以往各年的三次产业所占国民生产总值的比例的发展趋势进行估计。而事实上,经济增长及三次产业的发展也并非简单的平均,期间肯定会产生一定幅度的波动,因而表现出与实际略有差异的不足。2.未来研究方向。(1)从高等教育各层次结构的投入视角研究高等教育层次结构调整对经济增长的关系研究,以进一步探索高等教育层次结构调整与经济增长波动的关系如何,力争较全面认识它们二者之间的关系。(2)建立相关决策主体的博弈模型进行进一步研究。增加对社会各界的实际数据调查。将本研究的理论分析落实到实际的调查中去,通过对政府相关决策部门、学校以及社会各界对高等教育层次结构调整的决策与需求情况进行调查,获取一手的信息,并建立相关决策主体的博弈模型进行进一步研究。(3)关于对三次产业在国民经济总量中的占比问题,力争从经济学的角度寻找更为精准的方法进行预测,而非本研究所采用的平均简化方法,从而使本研究结果更为精确,其研究结论更具参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 1. Research ObjectiveEducation can promote economic growth (Schultz,1963; Lucas,1988).The higher the education level is, people are more easy to raise labor productivity. The education scale is larger, the accumulation of human capital is richer. Which has been recognized by many nation’s education development and economic growth(Zeira,2009). According to this theory, higher education can promote economic growth better. However, in recent years, many scholars (Barro and Sala-I-Martin,2004; Richard Vedder,2004; Risti Permani,2009, etc.) found that higher education was not necessarily to promote economic growth. In fact, only higher education that adapts to the needs of economic growth could promote economic growth (Colin&Geske,1989; Jiang Yi,2010; Fan Kwan,2005; Ye Feiwen,2004, etc.).Since the reform and opening up, China’s higher education has experienced the process of recovery, adjustment and rapid development. At present, although the higher education scale of China has leaped to No1in the world, but in terms of the relative proportion, compared with developed countries, there is still a big gap. Some structural contradictions are emerging. While the scale of higher education increases, the layer structure of higher education has been constantly adjusted. At the beginning of reform and opening up, undergraduate enrollment is dominant. Until now, the scale of post secondary education is approximately equal to college education’s scale, and graduate education has developed from zero to a large-scale. However, whether the structure of higher education has adapted to and promoted economic growth remains a question. Moreover, in order to realize the twelfth-five-years’ over all goal, which proportion of the layer structure of higher education is reasonable? Therefore, the relationship between the adjustment of the layer structure of higher education and economic growth since the reform and opening up is the subject of this study.Previous studies of the relationship between higher education and economic growth often start from the contribution of higher education to economic growth, but seldom looking at the layer structure of higher education. Higher education has its own pattern. The relationship between higher education and economic growth, in fact, is the problem of adaptation and matching. There is always the contradiction between the total amount and the structure of higher education(Lam Wing,2008). It is obviously inadequately discussed in current research. So it is particularly important to study the relationship between the layer structure of higher education and economic growth from the overall point of view, whichwould offer a certain reference value to the adjustment of China’s higher education hierarchy.2. Research contents, ideas and methodsthe research contents are as follows:(1) Reviewed theories of education and economic growth to find the historical relationship between the adjustment of the layer structure of China’s higher education and economic growth.(2)reviewed and summarized the developed countries’ experiences and lessons in the development of higher education including Japan, Europe and the United States, as well as emerging countries, to provide a reference for the adjustment of the layer structure of China’s higher education.(3) Studyed on the relationship between structural adjustment and economic growth since China’s reform and opening up, furtherly proved the internal relationship.(4) Calculated the appropriate proportion of the structure of higher education based on the overall goal of the12th Five-Year Plan.The paper explored several ideas. Firstly, it reviewed the hierarchy of higher education and economic growth theory, and the subject of this study is drawn by looking into the contradiction between the current higher education scale and insufficient human capital needs at the transition period of Chinese economy. Secondly, it reviewed and summarized the developed and developing countries’ experiences and lessons from the development of higher education. Thirdly, an empirical research is done with data collected since the reform and opening up while taking the12th Five-Year Plan’s overall goal into consideration. Lastly, it came to a conclusion and made policy recommendations accordingly.In this paper, following methods are employed:(1) Literature method. Relationship between the layer structure of higher education and economic growth theory is reviewed.(2) Comparative analysis. This study compared different layer structures of higher education during different time period since the reform and opening up in China, and horizontal compared Chinese higher education system with the developed countries, Japan, the United States, European countries, and also emerging countries.(3) Multivariate statistical method. Multivariate statistical analysis is employed. principal component analysis, nonlinear correlation Logistic regression are all used with statistical software Spss20.0.3. Research Conclusions The layer structure of higher education and economic growth associated with each other in both static and dynamic interaction mechanism. From the static point of view, they interact as follows:(1) The mechanism of the layer structure of higher education to economic growth. On the one hand, higher education meets, adapts, leads the economic structure transformation and upgrade of promoting economic growth by increasing the human capital, and also the expansion of higher education itself is stimulating domestic demand, accelerating the development of related industries, and promoting economic growth.(2) the mechanism of economic growth to the layer structure of higher education:economic growth restrict the layer structure of higher education or promote human capital through conversion and upgrade of the economic structure. On the other hand economic growth can provide more input for higher education, so as to promote its development. From a dynamic point of view, the adaptation of higher education and economic growth results from the game of government, universities, market, family.Since the reform and opening up, in order to adapt and promote economic growth, China’s higher education system has long been in a state of adjustment. The relationship between Higher education and economy growth coincide the proposed correlation mechanism. The structural adjustment of higher education reduces the waste of resources, adapts and promotes the economic growth to a large extent. The trends of China’s higher education structure are that post secondary level develops the most rapidly; graduate-level education maintains a steady growth, and undergraduate-level education expriences the downward trend.No matter the developed capitalist countries, such as the United States, Japan and South Korea, or countries like Germany where vocational education has well developed, undergraduate education dominants the proportion of the layer structure of higher education besides slight difference according to national conditions. But all the countries share a same feature that the growth rate of post secondary education exceeds other layers’in the process of popularization of higher education. The fast growth of post secodary education provides huge talents pool for industrilization and later the rising third industy. Only after that, and with the development of economy and society, all layers of higher education would exprience an upward trend.The empirical studies show that, since the reform and opening up, adjustment of China’s layer structure of higher education adapts to the needs of economic growth significantly. Its relationship is non-linear correlation, specifically as cubic curve.At the period of12th Five-Year, the best enrollment ratio of post secondary education, undergraduate and graduate education would be0.445:0.48:0.075. And the average growth ratio would be2.164%,1.626%and1.714%respectively. 4. Theoretical Contribution(1) The paper reviewed the mechanism of the layer structure of higher education and economic growth systematically.It came to the conclusion that the adaptation of the layer structure of higher education results from the gaming among government, universities, market, and family. While previous research focus on higher education’s contribution to econoic growth, seldom has study looked at the relationship from this angel.(2) Systematically summarized the historical relationship of structural adjustment of China’s higher education and economic growth systematically. In previous studies, the time scope of most studies was after1999, while this article looked into the issue with a wider time scope starting from the reform and opening up of China.(3) Used principal component analysis and nonlinear fitting by drawing a scatter-plot to observe the distribution characteristics with Spss20.0statistical software. In previous studies, most conclusions were direct linear correlation, but according to the phenomenon and experience, the relationship between higher education adjustment and economic growth is not necessarily a linear relationship, therefore, curve fitting after bulk point distribution analysis would be more reasonable.(4) taking China’s12th Five-Year Plan into consideration, the paper used data of China’s higher education adjustment since the reform and opening up to forecast the scale and proportion of China’s higher education during the12th Five-Year. Its conclusions will provide reference for the future structural adjustment of higher education in China’s12th Five-Year period.5. Research Limitation and Future Research DirectionLimitations of the research could be concluded as follows.(1) The investment in all higher education has important influence on economic growth. However, as there is no detailed data about, it, this study can not include the prospective of higher education’s input.(2)The study of the interaction mechanism between the Higher Education structure and Economic Growth analyzes the game behavior of government, universities, markets, and family. The downside of this hypothesis is the lack of actual survey data of real community demand.(3) The industry data in12th Five-Year period was only calculated according to the average growth rate of goal.In fact, economic growth and the development of the three industries is not a simple average. It results in inaccurancy of predication.This paper has several indications for future research directions:(1) future study may look at the relationship between the layer structure adjustment of higher education and economic growth from the point of input.(2) Future reseach may increase the actual data survey of the community.(3) In terms of the proportion of the three industries of the national economy, future study should try to find a more accurate way to predict the relative data, thus the results of the study would be more useful.更多还原