【作者】 刘渝阳；

【导师】 周殿昆；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 流通经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 区域间的供需互补是开展区际贸易的重要前提,区际贸易的合理结构与充分发展对于国民经济的持续健康发展和国家整体竞争力的提升,以及国内产业空间布局和区域经济协调发展有着深刻影响。1992年被称为我国市场经济“元年”,本文通过深入考察我国市场化改革进程中,我国区际供需互补经济关系,并利用大量数据实证证明和分析,借此洞悉我国内陆与沿海之间产业和贸易发展趋势,为我国区域经济发展中的隐患治理提供现实依据,也对推动流通产业持续快速发展,促进我国区域协调与可持续发展具有重要意义。本文的理论分析工具是产业区位理论和西方经济学的国际(区际)贸易理论。区位理论发端于1826年德国经济学家杜能(Johann·Tnunen)创立的“农业区位理论”。其后,出现了工业区位理论,梯度转移理论,市场区位理论,反梯度推进理论等。国际(区际)贸易理论的发展大致经历了古典、新古典、新贸易理论以及新经济地理贸易理论等几个阶段。古典和新古典国际贸易理论以完全竞争市场等假设为前提,强调贸易的互利性,主要解释了产业间贸易。二战后,以全球贸易的新态势为契机,新贸易理论应运而生,从不完全竞争、规模经济、技术进步等角度解释了产业内贸易现象。新兴古典国际贸易理论则以专业化分工来解释贸易。区际贸易是国际贸易的基础,具有相同的理论内核,许多国际贸易理论可以直接用于解释和分析区际贸易现象。上述两大理论体系都对我国改革开放以来的区域和贸易发展战略产生了重要影响。论文分为三个层次,共六章：第一层次(第1、2章)为研究思路立论基础部分,主要阐述论文立题基础,产业区位选择理论和贸易理论的发展状况,以及最新研究进展,研究思路与方法,总体框架与内容安排等。同时,对区域供需互补性的相关概念,FDI在我国的区位选择和制造业区位选择,以及我国贸易贸易的研究状况做了分析评述,找到论文研究的着眼点,为立论的展开奠定基础。第二层次(第3、4章)为主体研究部分。主要在总结影响供需互补性各种因素的基础上,提出区域供需互补性形成的历史累积与经济制度基础、自然资源基础、社会经济基础、地区产业专业化基础等四大基础。通过设定需求满足度的计算方式和评价尺度,分别使用绝对需求满足度指标和相对需求满足度指标,既从行业层面又从产品层面,对区域间供需互补性及其变化的行业特征进行分析,又对东、中、西三大区域和典型省区之间的供需互补性及其变化的产品特征进行分析。第三层次(第5、6章)为问题与建议部分。通过上述分析指出供需互补性增强带来的四个方面的积极影响。一是促进各省区形成差异化的贸易产品结构；二是既节省土地资源占用又增加农产品贸易供给；三是强化区际贸易竞争提升能源产业生产效率；四是推动贸易规模持续增长和流通业更快发展。区域供需互补性增强也带来了一些负面影响：一是巨量大宗货物远距离运输,导致运力紧张和高能耗高排放问题；二是巨量低值货物的远距离运输,加上经营管理方面的缺陷,使我国社会物流总成本水平长期显著偏高；三是区域间垂直型供需互补性增强导致内陆省区贸易逆差逐年上升,不利于区际贸易的良性发展。然后从产业转移、向西开放、中西部增长极的发展等角度展望我国区际贸易未来发展,并提出相关建议。论文具有以下创新点：1、本文揭示了形成区域供需互补性的四大基础性因素,进一步完善了供需互补性的理论框架。前期相关研究中,对区域供需互补性形成基础的认识往往集中在历史因素、自然资源因素和社会资源因素的分析,而对基于规模收益的地区产业专业化所导致的供需互补性缺乏足够的重视。本文分析认为,区域间的自然资源和社会资源禀赋差异,必须经过“产业生产”和经济社会发展转换,才能形成有效的供给和需求。因此,经济体制度、自然资源、经济社会发展水平和产业专业化水平,是形成有效供给和需求的基础性因素。受其诱导和影响,在优化资源配置,提高生产效率的动力驱使下,产业、企业及其产能向具有资源禀赋优势的省区集中,导致其供给能力显著增强,与供给缺口显著省区构成显著供需互补性。2、本文从宏观、中观、微观多个维度和层面分析研究了区域间供需互补性问题。既使用了相对需求满足度指标,又使用绝对需求满足度指标；既从区域和省域两个维度,又从行业中观和产品微观两个层面,对我国市场化改革进程中的区域间供需互补性变化,进行了计量分析。对东中西三大地带间的供需互补性变动也有所涉及。多维视角的分析使结论更具说服力。3、前期研究国内贸易的相关文献在强调推动区际贸易时,更多关注区际贸易中存在的市场分割、西部贸易逆差和不等价交换问题,而对于我国区际贸易结构不合理所导致的高物流费用水平、高能耗与排放水平等一些列问题缺乏应有的关注,这一问题在本文中得到弥补。本研究指出,内陆与沿海省区间供需互补性在市场化改革进程中进一步增强促进了特色优势产业发展、节约资源占用、提高生产效率和经济效益,推动了流通产业持久快速发展,但同时也带来了物流成本水平居高不下,能耗和排放量大幅增长,内陆省区贸易逆差逐年上升等负面影响。由此,本文就促进区际贸易发展,消除负面影响提出五点建议：一是培育发展大型区际流通企业,带动区际贸易发展；二是鼓励内陆省区延伸原料加工业产业链,改善和提升输出产品结构；三是支持和鼓励民间资本进入内陆省区基础能源行业,加快发展增强供给能力；四是在完善内陆省区交通运输网的基础上,大力发展高效能综合物流体系,降低物流能耗和排放；五是推动区际产业转移,加快内陆重点经济区加工制造发展,促进东中西部供需互补性向水平分工型层面移动。区域供需互补性的研究是多维度多层次的,由于统计数据和资料收集等方面的困难以及笔者理论素养、研究能力和认识上的局限,论文在以下几个方面还存在不足,希望在今后的学习和工作中做进一步深入研究。一是行业层面的分析中行业划分过粗,时间过短。行业层面供需互补性的分析中,由于统计资料的局限,采用的是《中国区域投入产出表》中的42部门划分类型,无法完整获取139部门的省级数据,行业划分较粗,而且仅使用了2002-2007年的投入产出数据,一定程度上影响了行业分析的论证效力。二是缺乏对需求满足度的计量分析。尽管本文对需求满足度进行了定量测算和分析,但如何将区域经济发展数据与需求满足度数据结合起来计量分析,还未找到一个完善的计量方法。需要在今后的工作中进一步深入研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional complementation between the supply and demand is an important precondition for inter-regional trade. Reasonable structure and full development of inter-regional trade have profound impact to continued healthy development of the national economy, the country’s overall competitiveness, the domestic industrial layout and the coordinated development of the regional economy.1992is known as the first year of China’s market economy. The paper thoroughly studies the complementation between supply and demand in the region during China’s market reform process. By statistics and analysis, the paper demonstrates the trend of industry and trade between inland and costal areas, and provides realistic basis for the risk management of China’s regional economic development, so this paper is of great significance to the sustained and rapid development the circulation industry and the region.Industry location theory and international and regional trade of western economics are the theoretical analysis tools of the paper.The location theory originated in the agricultural location theory, founded in1826by the German economist Johann·Tnunen. Subsequently, appear the theory of industrial location, gradient transfer theory the market location theory, anti-gradient promotion theory. The international and regional trade theory experienced stages as classical, neo-classical, New Trade and New Economic Geography trade theory. Classical and neo-classical theory assumes perfectly competitive market, stresses the mutual benefits of trade, and mainly explains the inter-industry trade. After World War Ⅱ, new trade theory emerged when the global trade developed, and the theory explains the phenomenon of inter-industry trade by imperfect competition, economies of scale and technological progress. New Classical theory explains the trade by specialization. The inter-regional trade is the basis of international trade, and they are with the same theoretical core, so a number of international trade theories can be directly used to interpret and analyze the phenomenon of inter-regional trade. These two major theoretical systems have had a major impact to China’s reform and opening up regional trade development strategy.The paper is divided into three levels and six chapters:The first level (Chapters1and2) is the theoretical basis of the paper, mainly explains the development of the industry location choice theory and trade theory, as well as its latest research progress, research ideas and methods, the overall framework and content arrangements. The second level (Chapters3and4) is the main body of the paper. It mainly analyzes the regional complementation between supply and demand by different aspects. The third level (Chapters5and6) focuses on problems and solutions. Through the above analysis, the paper concludes that the increase of complementation between supply and demand brings four positive impacts. The first is to promote the provinces and regions to form different product structures. The second is to not only save land resource consumption but also increase the supply of agricultural supply. The third is to enhance the production efficiency of the energy industry by inter-regional trade competition. The fourth is to promote the continued growth of trade and fast development of circulation industry. The increase of complementation between supply and demand also brings some negative effects. The first is the capacity constraints and high energy consumption and high emissions. The second is high logistics cost due to the long-distance transport of huge amount of low-value goods and imperfect operation and management. The third is the increase of trade deficit between west and east areas, which is not conducive to the development of inter-regional trade. Then the paper provides advice and solutions.The paper has the following innovations:1. This article reveals the four basic factors in formation of regional supply and demand complementation, and further improves theoretical framework of the supply and demand complementation. Regional supply and demand complementation in early research is mainly concentrated on factors like historical, natural resources and social resources, while lacks attention to complementation caused by industrial specialization. This paper analyzes that effective supply and demand can only be caused by industrial production and the economic and social development. Therefore, the system of economy, natural resources, the level of economic and social development and industrial specialization level are the basis of effective supply and demand. Industry, enterprise and capacity accumulate into some provinces and its supply ability increases and the complementation between provinces increases.2. This article studies the regional complementation of supply and demand from the macro, meso, micro dimensions and levels. By using the relative demand satisfaction indicators and the absolute demand satisfaction indicators, from the regional and provincial domain, and from industry meso dimension and product micro level, this article analyzes changes of the regional complementation of supply and demand in China’s market reform process especially to changes between the east, middle and western areas.3. Preliminary studies mainly focused on market segmentation, trade deficit between west area and east area and unequal exchange problem in inter-regional trade, while this article focuses on irrational high level of logistics costs and high energy consumption and emission caused by unreasonable inter-regional trade structure. This article points out that complementation between supply and demand between the inland and coastal provinces is increasing, which brings the following effects, like the sustained development of circulation industry, resource consumption saving, improvement of production efficiency and economic benefits, and increase of trade deficit between west area and east area. In order to solve the problems, this article provides five suggestions. First, to foster and develop large-scale inter-district circulation enterprises to promote the development of inter-regional trade; Second, to encourage inland provinces to extend the industry chain of raw material processing industry to improve and enhance the product structure; Third, to support and encourage private capital to enter the energy industry in inland provinces to enhance the supply capacity; Fourth, to vigorously develop high-performance integrated logistics system to reduce logistics energy consumption and emissions; Fifth, to promote inter-district transfer of industry and to speed up the development of key manufacturing economic zones in inland cities.This paper also has the following shortages which will be improved in future study. The first is that the classification of industry is too rough, the time for study is too short and the statistics are not enough. The second is the lack of analysis of the measurement of demand satisfaction.更多还原