【作者】 孔维臻；

【导师】 余瑞祥；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学 ， 资源产业经济， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 地热资源是在当前的技术经济和地质环境条件下,可以从地壳表面下一定深度内科学、合理地开发出来的地下岩石中的地热能量和地热流体中的热能量及其伴生的有用组分。地热资源是能源家族中的新能源之一,不仅是重要的能源类矿产,又是可再生的清洁的、环境友好的绿色能源。合理的利用地热资源,是缓解资源约束和环境压力,调整和优化能源结构,提高经济增长的质量和效益,实现节约发展、清洁发展、安全发展和可持续发展,大力开发新能源,实行能源供应多元化的一项重要战略举措。地热资源作为绿色、可再生资源,在地热丰富的我国已经得到了较好的开发和利用。全国已经基本形成了以西藏羊八井为代表的地热发电、以天津和西安为代表的地热供暖、以东南沿海为代表的疗养与旅游和以华北平原为代表的种植和养殖开发利用格局。随着我国地热资源商业化、产业化、规模化步伐加快,地热资源开发利用经济评价工作的重要性也逐渐显现。近年来,国内外学者为地热开发利用作出了深入的研究和巨大的贡献,但是,总的来说,我国地热开发利用的经济评价的研究还比较薄弱。目前,这些研究主要的局限性表现在以下几个方面：一是,研究的方法和深度有待进一步加强。从目前的状况来看,国内外对能源经济评价方面进行的研究并不少,既有针对传统化石能源的,也有针对新能源的,但是总的来说对传统化石能源方面的研究更加深入。针对新能源的经济评价研究侧重于针对某个具体的项目作出运算和评价或者对不同方案的运算结果进行比较,总的来说,阐述比较笼统,研究的内容和方法还需完善,亟需形成一套系统的、针对性较强的评价指标体系和评价方法体系。二是,研究的对象应该细化。目前的能源项目经济评价研究的对象主要集中在不同能源或不同用能方式之间经济性的比较分析,通过对计算结果的比较选出最优方案,但优势或劣势的关键影响因素还缺乏深刻剖析,比较过程中所采用的经济评价方法针对性不强。三是,学术界对地热开发利用的研究相对薄弱,关于地热开发利用经济评价多是单独考虑技术、经济、环境、资源等因素,或者考虑其中两两组合的关系,缺乏以资源—经济—环境为系统的综合评价；关于地热开发利用的投入-产出主要是财务计算,缺乏对地热资源开发利用投入-产出的绩效研究。论文在“中国地质调查基金项目”的支持下,从地热资源开发利用已有的评价现状入手,结合资源—经济—环境系统,提出基于DEA的地热资源开发利用经济评价模型,结合地热资源主要的开发利用方式,完成了从理论、方法到实践的过渡,为地热资源开发利用经济评价、地热产业管理和决策提供了科学的依据。研究成果主要表现在以下几个方面：1.对地热资源开发利用经济评价的理论基础进行了分析。把资源禀赋理论、比较优势理论和可持续发展理论作为指导地热资源开发利用的理论基础。对地热资源开发利用经济评价的作用与原则进行了分析,指出地热资源经济评价的意义在于为开发决策提供科学依据,也有利于提高地热资源的综合利用水平。结合地热资源开发利用的特点,重点讨论了影响地热资源开发利用经济评价的关键因素,主要包括地质因素、技术经济因素、社会经济因素和生态环境因素等。为选择地热资源开发利用经济评价指标和建立地热资源开发利用经济评价模型提供了理论基础。。2.我国地热资源不同开发利用方式经济评价综合分析。对中低温地热资源的三种主要利用方式：深层地热水供暖、浅层地温能供暖、地热温泉分别进行了经济评价相关分析。分析表明,三种开发利用方式的项目对其进行评价时有不同的侧重点。深层地热水供暖项目投资大、风险高,比较侧重于净现值等财务数据的计算；浅层地温能项目经济评价注重对其节能效应的评价；地热温泉评价主要是对影响温泉开发利用的主要因素进行评价。通过分析,发现目前地热资源经济评价以单类型项目为研究对象,缺乏对各种不同开发利用方式的项目的宏观评价分析,缺乏以资源—经济—环境为系统的,能够适用于各种开发利用方式的经济评价模型。提出了建立地热资源开发利用经济评价模型的必要性。3.基于3E-DEA地热资源开发利用经济评价指标体系模型的建立。首先,在总结分析能源—环境—经济系统理论的基础上,将能源细化为地热资源,讨论地热资源、经济、环境之间的耦合关系。其次,引入DEA模型,根据地热资源开发利用的特点和3E系统的内涵,选择适合本文使用的DEA模型：一是3E-DEA模型,将3E引入到DEA模型中；二是超效率DEA模型,由于本文决策单元数不多,而超效率模型是解决单元相对较少情况下排序问题的有效手段,故而采用。最后,建立适用于地热资源开发利用的经济评价指标体系,具体来说,定性的从投入要素：地质因索、工艺因素、财务因素中筛选出地热资源量、单井产量、总投资、运营费用和环保节能投入作为输入指标；从产出要素：经济效益和环境效益中筛选出动态投资回收期、内部收益率、节约标准煤和减少废气排放量为输出指标。在此基础上,采用改进的主成分分析法,以实际案例计算结果为根据,选择出了单井产量、投资总额、动态回收期、内部收益率和节约标准煤这5个更加科学、合理、易操作且能反映3E系统的投入产出指标。4.实证研究。针对选取的10个典型项目(它们分别代表了深层地热水供暖、浅层地温能和温泉三大地热开发利用方式)结合DEA评价模型与新建立的指标体系,分析影响各种地热资源开发利用方式经济效益的关键因素,从更为宏观的角度对地热资源开发利用进行了评价。通过数据的分析,得出以下结论：深层地热水供暖项目调整参数为财务收益率、单井产量；对于浅层地温能项目,可以通过提高投资额和缩短投资回收期的参数来提高效率；对于地热温泉项目,可以通过提高投资额和内部收益率的参数来提高效率。采用FA软件进行DEA分析,得出DEA有效项目有2个；DEA无效项目8个。根据输出结果显示出的各项目的经济效率分值,对经济效率高的项目进行了因素贡献值分析,对经济效率低的项目展开了无效原因分析,发现无效项目中普遍存在投入水平效率损失现象,产出指标分别有不同程度的上升空间。实证结果表明,本文建立的地热资源经济评价模型可以针对不同开发方式的地热项目进行经济评价和经济效率排序,具有一定的实践操作性。5.提出我国地热资源开发利用的优化路径——推进我国地热资源—经济—环境协调发展。项目层面,通过梯级利用、地热回灌技术方法提高地热资源利用效率和积极开发CDM项目；产业层面,通过开展我国地热资源调查评价、合理规划地热产业、建立地热产业投资基金来保障我国地热资源—经济—环境协调发展。本文研究的主要创新点体现在以下两点：1.以资源—经济—环境为系统,针对地热资源特点,选取科学的投入产出指标体系,建立了基于3E-超效率DEA的地热资源开发利用经济评价模型。2.针对中低温地热资源不同的利用方式：深层地热水供暖、浅层地温能供暖和温泉旅游进行了经济评价和经济效率评价。更多还原

【Abstract】 The geothermal resource is one of the import energies in the current technical economy and under the geology environmental condition.The geothermal energy in underground rock and heat energy with other useful containment in geothermal fluid can be reasonable developed under earth’s crust surface in certain depth. The heat energy of geothermal resource partly originates from the Earth deep place high temperature lava body. Another originates the heat which produces to the radio active element decay.The geothermal resource is one of the new energies in energy family. It is not only the important energy class minerals, also is renewable, clean, the environmental friendly and green energy. The reasonable use geothermal resource is important strategic action which can alleviate the resources restraint and the environment pressure, improve the quality and the benefit which the economy grows, the realization save the development, the clean development, the safe development and the sustainable development, the adjustment and the optimized energy structure, vigorously develops the new energy, an implementation energy supply multiplication.As a green and renewable resource, geothermal energy has been deeply developed and utilizated in China which is rich in geothermal energy. China has been basically formed a utilization pattern that represented by Tibet Yangbajing geothermal power generation, Tianjin and Xi’an as the representative of the geothermal heating, southeast coast as the representative of the spa and tourism and north China plain as the representative of the planting and breeding. With the acceleration of commercialization, industrialization and large scale of geothermal resources in our country, the importance of economic evaluation for geothermal resources exploitation and utilization also gradually revealed.At present, the research about economic evaluation for geothermal exploitation and utilization is still in its infancy. The limitations of the research mainly displays in the following aspects:firstly, research methods and research depth needs to be further strengthened. From the current situation,there are lots of economic evaluation on energy both at home and abord, but they mostly research on the traditional fossil energy, there are also have reseach on new energy, but most of these studies only for one specific project itself which is made several indicators of the operation and evaluation or made different schemes,simple comparison of the calculation results.they research isarathernebulousterm and not formed a system of evaluation indexs and evaluation method. Secondly, the object of the research should be refined. Currently, economic evaluation is mostly focus on the economic evaluation on energy projects or different usepatterns. They only research on which projects is better through the comparison of the calculated results, key influencing factors for the advantage or disadvantage are not concrete.Thirdly,The use patten of geothermal resources have their own characteristics, the economic evaluation of the results are often not able to fully reflect the real situation of each project.This papers from the angle of view of development and utilization status of the existing evaluation about geothermal resources, combining resources-economy-environment system, based on DEA model, combining with the development and utilization of geothermal resources mainly, completed the transition from theory to practice, form method to practice. Provides scientific date to the goverments for the management and decision made which is benifent to the exploitation and utilization for geothermal resource.1. Making research on theories of economic evaluation of geotheermal energy developing and utilizing. This paper given summarized study on the key influential factors and current situation of geotheermal energy developing and utilizing, the theory of mineral resources developing and utilizing is reviewed in this chapter.Combining with the characteristics of geothermal resources development and utilization, making comprehensive analysis of the main influence factors of geothermal resources economic evaluation and it found out that the geological factor, the technical economic factors, social economic factors and ecological and environmental factors will affect the economic value of exploitation and utilization of geothermal resources. It provides a theoretical basis for choosing economic evaluation index of geothermal resources development and utilization based on DEA model.2.making systmical analysis on the different ways of development and utilization of geothermal resources.it makes analysis respectively on the three main use of low temperature geothermal resources,there aredeep geothermal water heating, shallow geothermal heating and geothermal hot springs.Analysis shows that the three ways of evaluate the development and utilization project have their priorities. Deep geothermal water heating projects need large investment have high risk, therefore,it focus on the financial data such as net present value calculation; economic evaluation on shallow geothermal project should pay attention to for its energy saving effect evaluation; Evaluation of geothermal hot springs is mainly to evaluate the main factors influencing the hot spring development and utilization. Through the analysis, it found out, most economic evaluation of geothermal resources focus on a single project, the lack of a variety of different ways of development and utilization in macroscopic views.it put forward the necessity of setting up economic evaluation model of geothermal resources exploitation and utilization.3. Set up economic evaluation index system of geothermal resources development and utilization based on3E-DEA.On the basis of analyzing the theory of energy-environment-economy system, refining the index of resources with geothermal energy, coupling the relationship between economy and environment.summaried the main models and methods of energy-environment-economy system and finding out the model method’s limitations. From the perspective of the relations between the inputs-output, by using DEA model make economic evaluation on the development and utilization of geothermal resources. Choicing the suitable DEA model which were used in this article, there are economic evaluation index system of geothermal resources development and utilization based on3E-DEA and Super efficiency DEA model. Super efficiency model is used to solve unit scheduling problem which is with relatively few cases. Focus on the two economic indicators:costs and yields. Geothermal cost including environmental cost; through adjustment of the economic parameters, studied the two influence factor to geothermal development such as cost and investment. Constructing suitable index system to meet the characteristics of the geothermal resources, expand the limitations of the traditional project economic evaluation method which making economic evaluation about geothermal resources development and utilization is more scientific. Through empirical analysis to the key influencing factors of geothermal resources exploitation and utilization, to make a evaluation of the development and utilization of geothermal resources from a more macro point of view. The five indicators have been fully tested in the influencing factors of geothermal exploitation and utilization and combining with the connotation of resources-economy environment, have certainscientificalness. According to the main factors influencing the value of geothermal resources development and utilization project, combined with the connotation of the3E and DEA evaluation model a newly established index system is established, through a practical example, the model was used to study the different ways of using geothermal development project plan, analysis the key factors which impacts the evaluation about geothermal resources development and utilization, to make a evaluation of the development and utilization of geothermal resources from a more macro point of view.Explore index system of economic evaluation which is suited to the characteristics of the geothermal resources development and utilization project, expand the limitations of the traditional economic evaluation method on project and makes the economic evaluation on geothermal resources development and utilization more scientific.4.Using data envelopment analysis setting up economic evaluation model of geotheermal energy developing and utilizing.according to the different ways and utilization of geothermal resources, selectted10representative projects including high-temperature geothermalwater,shallow geotheermal energyand hot spring projects as the research objects (namely decision-making unit), and then makes input-output research based on the evaluation model.The key point to a model lies in the choice of indicators, combining with the characteristics of geothermal, this article selects the single well production, total investment, dynamic payback period, financial internal rate of return and environmental benefits as input and output indicators. On the basis of previous research, using FA software to evaluate the efficiency of geothermal resources development and utilization then makes efficiency analysis on the operation results. According to the FA software there are2DEA effective project and8DEA invalid projects. The output shows the score of economic efficiency, and contribution to value analysis based on economic efficiency project, finds out the causes which makes the economic efficiency low. Loss phenomenon is widespread in the input level. There is cetain degree rise space in the output indicators.5. Optimization path of exploitation and utilization of geothermal resources in China is put forward.on the views of porject,promoting the coordinated development of the geothermal resources-economy-environment, there are multi-purpose on the resource, cascade utilization and geothermal injection to improve the efficiency of geothermal resources and technology actively;on the views of industry level, by conducting investigation and evaluation on geothermal resources,to plan the geothermal industry reasonablely and to set up the geothermal industry investment fund to safeguard geothermal resources-environment-economy coordinating developed.The innovation of this paper is mainly indicated on two aspects as follows:1.According to the characteristics of geothermal resources, combing with Resources-economy-environment system,selection scientific input and output index, setting up economic evaluation model of geothermal resources development and utilization based on3E-super efficiency DEA.2. Making economic evaluation and economic efficiency evaluation in view of the different ways of using low-temperature geothermal resources:deep geothermal water heating, shallow geothermal heating and hot spring tourism.更多还原