【作者】 邹利林；

【导师】 王占岐；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国城镇化水平从1978年的17.92%提高到2011年的51.27%,城市建成区面积由7438.0km2扩张到43603.2km2。在城镇化快速推进过程中,城市以其相对优越的地理区位条件、明确的行业分工协作、便利的交通运输条件和高效的行政服务能力等吸引周边人口向中心集聚,城市人口超越农村人口由1.72亿增加到6.91亿。人口的大量汇集需要在有限的城市土地空间上解决居住问题,于是住宅用地的价格与分布逐渐成为塑造城市时空格局的重要参量,并在时间维、二维地理空间与地价水平所构成的四维空间中不断演化与重构。城市土地价格是城市土地管理的核心问题,而住宅用地价格又是土地价格中最为敏感、社会反映最强烈的部分。城市住宅用地价格在时间和空间上具有较强的关联性,表现为在时间具有连续性,在空间上具有依赖性。随着城市功能性扩张和结构性调整的推进,住宅地价的时空关系不断演化,并呈现一定的规律,探索和捕捉这种规律信息及其影响机制具有重要意义。本文在对我国城市住宅地价时空差异进行理论分析的基础上,运用ESDA和Hedonic模型对武汉市近十年土地交易数据进行实证研究。ESDA将重点揭示住宅用地的时空演变规律,而Hedonic模型将识别影响地价的特征因素,并对其影响程度进行测度。本文在以下5个方面获得一些重要结论：(1)文献综述表明国内外对城市住宅地价时空演变机制及其影响因素的研究已经较为充分。城市住宅地价时空演变的动力机制主要来自内在传导机制和外在冲击机制,并且土地投机是城市住宅地价时空演变不可忽视的驱动因素。各国学者对影响因素的研究则主要从不同的分类体系展开。文献分析也揭示国内研究在研究方式、研究数据、研究技术手段和研究对象上存在一定的缺陷。(2)从我国政府对住宅土地市场干预的行为特征来看,更符合理性“经济人”的角色定位,政府凭借其在定价中的完全话语权和在配置中的决策导向权,驱动着城市住宅地价呈现出明显的时间增长和空间分异特征。从城市住宅地价时空演变的理论依据来看,其在时间上增长满足供给与需求理论,政府在不同阶段对土地商品属性的认知程度和采取的供地策略的转变是导致住宅地价上涨的内生原因,而制度变迁过程中各级政府行为取向的非均衡和国家宏观经济的强势拉动是推动住宅地价上涨的外生原因；在不同尺度的空间迁移上满足竞价租金理论、亨利·乔治定理和特征价格理论,竞价租金理论能够合理地解释城市住宅地价的区位差异,亨利·乔治定理则对住宅邻里地价具有决定作用,特征价格理论可以将各个地块的地价差异性地表现出来。(3)本文从研究数据的空间关联性以及时间序列的完整性出发,选取2003-2011年武汉市主城区出让的住宅用地和部分商住综合用地案例进行实证研究。在经过数据的录入、筛选、商住综合用地地价分摊、时间修正、缺值处理、异常点排除等处理后形成308个有效样点。统计分析表明样点总体分布存在一定的空间差异性,且比标准正态分布更陡峭,表现为尖峰分布。(4)GIS技术支持下的武汉市住宅地价时空演变特征研究表明：①从十地政策演化和市场运行状况来看,武汉市住宅土地市场大致经历了1992-1998年、1999-2005年以及2006-2011年三个阶段。从交易案例的时间特征来看,2003-2008年间处于一个高值波动期,2009-2011年是住宅市场的高速发展时期；从交易案例的区域特征来看,洪山区在2003-2011年间成交的住宅用地数量最多为75宗,青山区最少仅为19宗；从交易案例的环线特征来看,2003-2011年59.09%的交易案例发生在二环线与三环线之间,并且从2008年开始住宅土地出让的重心逐步由二环内开始向三环转移；从交易案例的动态演化特征来看,2003-2011年住宅交易案例与参照点的平均距离由6.04km增加到8.73km,年均向外扩展0.30km；②住宅地价的全局空间自相关指数Moran’s I表明“招拍挂”机制运行以来,总体上武汉市住宅地价呈现出某种空间相关性,而CV值则进一步揭示地价的空间差异由以往的低值集聚逐步向高值集聚转变；局部空间自相关Moran散点图表明武汉市住宅地价的空间关联性随着时间的推移不断加强,而LISA集聚图则显示两处住宅“热点”分别分布在汉口旧城组团以及中南组团,两处“冷点”分别在严西湖周围和黄家湖周围；③住宅地价空间自相关的各向异性分析表明,半变异函数在0°、45°、90°和135°四个方向上表现出带状向异性特征,且变程大都在12～15km左右；住宅地价空间自相关的各向同性分析表明,武汉市住宅地价最佳拟合模型为指数模型,其空间自相关范围为11.16km,而Co/(Co+C)值的大小表明武汉市住宅地价的空间变异46.2%由随机因素引起,而53.8%由结构性差异所引起；④地价的等值线图显示武汉市住宅地价的总体圈层模式仍然比较明显,而基于特定基点的剖面分析揭示了武汉市住宅地价既有渐变也有突变,但总体还是呈现从中心向边缘逐渐下降趋势。三个时段的住宅地价插值分析揭示住宅的高值区均聚焦于以传统商业中心为半径的一定范围内,表明现代城市的居住行为并未完全脱离对商服业的依赖,而相邻时段的减法运算则指出在2003-2008年期间武汉市住宅地价的空间演变连续性较强,尚未出现跳跃性的演变特征,2009-2011年期间则有多个局部住宅奇异点已经形成。(5)基于Hedonic模型的住宅地价影响因素识别和测度研究表明：①采用规范分析与文献总结相结合的方式,对影响武汉市住宅地价的关键因素进行了识别,在对选取的因素进行相关性检验后,最终确定以单位地面价作为因变量,并从区位特征、邻里特征、个别特征和其他特征中选取22个自变量进入模型；②采用最小二乘法对武汉市住宅地价的线性、对数以及半对数三种形式的特征价格模型估计结果表明,对数形式的模型解释能力最强,其所能解释因变量差异的百分比约为58.9%,线性形式的模型的解释能力最差,其所能解释因变量差异的百分比仅为53.9%,半对数模型居于二者之间,其所能解释因变量差异的百分比为55.5%；③对数模型的显著性分析表明,通过模型10%显著性检验的特征变量有13个,说明这是引起武汉市住宅地价差异的主要原因；从系数的符号来看,除宗地形状的符号与预期不一样以及宗地面积为负以外,其余均与预期保持一致；变量的弹性分析则揭示,交易方式的价格弹性最大为62.580,宗地面积的价格弹性最小为-0.078；变量的影响度分析表明,22个变量对住宅地价的影响程度存在差异,对住宅地价影响程度最大的变量是容积率；④典型特征因素的测度研究表明,武汉市住宅地价的总体上涨趋势较为明显,而且地价对时间的敏感性程度较高；城市中心区位价值的空间分析揭示,城市中心对住宅地价的影响并不具备明显的时间特征,但对住宅地价的影响存在明显的空间梯度效应；轨道交通对住宅地价的空间影响范围在500m左右,并且其运营期间对住宅地价的影响要明显高于工程建设期；湖泊公园对住宅地价的影响范围为400m,并且其空间影响效应随着距离的变化并不是均匀的,而是存在一定的梯度差异；容积率对单位地面价的影响要比对楼面地价的影响敏感得多,并且其对地价的影响表现为从中心到外围逐步衰减。国内关于城市住宅地价时空演变及影响因素的系统研究还比较缺乏,我国城市住宅市场成长于经济快速发展的转型年代,具有明显的制度痕迹,经济的发展和制度的改革引导着城市居住空间的阶段性演变。因此,本文在总结现有研究存在不足的基础上,对我国城市住宅地价时空演变的内在机理进行分析,进而以武汉市中心城区“招拍挂”机制运行以来的住宅用地案例进行实证研究。该成果不仅有助于深化和完善学科理论体系和指导今后实证研究,而且将为城市土地资源的优化配置和房地市场调控提供理论和实践指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 The level of urbanization in China increased from17.92%in1978to51.27%in2011, and the urban built-up area expanded from7438.0km2to43603.2km2, since the reform and development. Urban with its relatively privileged geographic location conditions, specific industry division of work, convenient transportation conditions and efficient administrative services ability to attract the surrounding population concentrate to the center in the rapid progress of urbanization, and urban population exceeded the rural population from172million to691million. The large collection of the population need to solve the housing problem in the limited space on city land, so the price and distribution of residential land becoming an important parameter of shaping the tempo-spatial pattern of the city, and evolving and reconstructing in a four-dimensional space:time-dimension, two-dimensional geospatial and the level of land price.The tempo-spatial pattern of urban residential land price evolved with some regularity in the driving of various factors, explore and capture the information and its impact mechanisms of this law has an important significance. This paper used the land transaction data of nearly a decade of Wuhan as a empirical study with the application of ESDA and Hedonic model based on the theoretical analysis of the tempo-spatial differences of China’s urban residential land price. ESDA focus on revealed the tempo-spatial evolution law of the residential land and Hedonic model can identify the characteristic factors that affect the land price and can measure the degree of the influence. Some important conclusions obtained in the following five aspects:(1) The literature review showed that the research of mechanisms and its influencing factors of urban residential land price tempo-spatial evolution has been more fully at home and abroad. The dynamic mechanisms of urban residential land price tempo-spatial evolution are mainly from the intrinsic conduction mechanism and external shock mechanism, and at the same time, land speculation is a driving factor of urban residential land price tempo-spatial evolution that can not be ignored. The researches of the influencing factors are mainly expanded from different classification system by scholars from various countries. The literature analysis also reveals that domestic researches have certain defects on research methods, research data, research technical means and research objects.(2) View from our government intervention behavioral characteristics of the residential land market, its more coincidence with rational "economic man" role, government by virtue of its full right to speak in the pricing and decision-oriented rights in configuration, driven urban residential land price presented a significant characteristics in the time growth and space differentiation. View from the theoretical basis of the urban residential land price tempo-spatial evolution, its growth in time meet the supply and demand theory, the awareness level of the land product attributes and the transition of land provide strategy to take for government at different stages are the intrinsic reasons which lead the growth of residential land price, and the non-equilibrium of government behavior in all levels and national macroeconomic strong pull in the process of institutional change is the external reasons to promote residential land prices grow. Space migration in different scales meet the Bid Rent theory, Henry George theorem and Hedonic theory, Bid Rent theory can reasonably explain the differences in location of the urban residential land price, Henry George theorem played a decisive role in the residential neighborhood land price, Hedonic theory can differently manifest the land price of various plots.(3) This paper started from the spatial correlation of the research data and the integrity of time sequence, selected the sell residential land and commercial and residential land case of the main city of Wuhan during the year2003-2011as an empirical study. Through data entry, screening, commercial and residential land price sharing, time correction, the handling of missing values, outliers exclusion, formed308valid samples. Statistical analysis showed that the overall sample point distribution has a certain amount of space differences, and steeper than the standard normal distribution, performance as spike distribution.(4) The characteristics of Wuhan residential land price tempo-spatial evolution studies that supported buy GIS shows that:①View from the evolution of land policy and the operation situation of the market, the residential land market in Wuhan roughly experienced three stages:1992-1998,1999-2005and2006-2011. View from the time characteristics of the transaction cases, between2003and2008is a high-value fluctuation period,2009-2011is a rapid development period of the residential market. View from the regional characteristics of the transaction cases, the number of residential land transactions in Hongshan District is the largest which up to75and in Qingshan District the number is the smallest which only19. View from the ring characteristics of the trading case,59.09percent of the trading cases occurred between the Second Ring and Third Ring in the2003-2011period, and the center of the residential land transaction has transferred gradually from within the Second Ring to Third Ring since2008. View from the dynamic evolution characteristics of residential land transaction cases, the average distance between residential land transaction cases and the reference point increased from6.04km to8.73km in the2003-2011period, and the annual outward expansion has reached0.30km;②The global spatial autocorrelation index of residential land price Moran’s I shows that Since the operation of "Bid Invitation, Auction and Listing system" mechanism, residential land price in Wuhan showing a certain space correlation in general, the CV value further reveals that the spatial difference of residential land price gradually transition from low value agglomeration to high value agglomeration; Local spatial autocorrelation Moran scatter plot shows that the spatial correlation of Wuhan residential land price continue to strengthen over time, the LISA shows that the two residential "hot spots" were distributed in Hankou old city district and Zhongnan district, two "cold spots" were around the Yanxi Lake and the Huangjia lake;③The anisotropic analysis of residential land prices spatial autocorrelation shows that the semivariogram at0°,45°,90°and135°four directions on the performance of ribbon anisotropic characteristics, and most of the change process in about12～15km. The anisotropic analysis of residential land prices spatial autocorrelation also shows that best-fit model for Wuhan residential land price is the index model, its spatial autocorrelation range is11.16km, while the value of Co/(Co+C) shows that the spatial variability of Wuhan residential land prices by46.2%caused by random factors, while53.8%was caused by structural differences.④The price contour map shows that the overall circle mode of Wuhan residential land prices are still quite obvious, based on the specific basis points in a cross-sectional analysis reveals residential land price showed both gradient and mutation in Wuhan, but still showed a gradually declining trend. The three periods residential land price interpolation analysis reveals the high value of residential area focus on traditional commercial center for the radius within a certain range, shows that modern urban living behavior has not completely out of the dependence on the commercial services industry. The adjacent period subtraction put out that the space evolution of residential land price in Wuhan showed a strong continuity in2003-2008period, yet appeared leap of evolution characterized, but in2009-2011period, multiple local residential singular points have been formed.(5) The research of influencing factors to identify and measure for residential land price based on Hedonic model shows that:①With the way which combine normative analysis with literature concluding, identified the key that factors affecting residential land price in Wuhan, Through correlation test of selected factors, ultimately determine use the unit floor price as the dependent variable, and selected22independent variables into the model from the locational characteristics, neighborhood characteristics, individual characteristics, and other characteristics.②The estimation results which use least squares method with three forms of linear, logarithmic and semi-logarithmic Hedonic model of residential land price in Wuhan shows that, the logarithmic form model about the percentage differences in the dependent variable, it can explain58.9%, the linear form model is the worst explanatory power, it can explain only53.9%, semi-logarithmic form model is between the two, it can explain55.5%.③The significant analysis of logarithmic model shows that13characteristic variables can through the model significantly in10%of the test, shows that these are the main reason caused the residential land price differences in Wuhan. View from the sign of the coefficient, except for sign of parcel shape is not the same as expected, and the area of the parcel is negative, the rest are in accord with expected. The variable elastic analysis reveals that the maximum price elasticity is transactions, it is up to62.580, the minimum price elasticity is parcel area, it is-0.078; The degree of variables affect analysis shows that22variables had differences in the degree of influence the residential land price, volume rate was the greatest variable that influence the residential land price.④The typical characteristic factors Measure study shows that the upward trend of residential land prices in Wuhan is obvious, and the land price had a higher sensitivity to time. The space analysis of the city center location value reveals that residential land price of the city center does not have the obvious characteristics of the time, but there is obvious spatial gradient effect of the impact on residential land price. The space sphere of the influence of rail traffic on residential land price in about500m, and its impact on residential land price during operations was significantly higher than the construction period. The range of the impact which lakes and parks on residential land price is400m, and its space effect is not uniform as the distance changes, but there is a certain gradient differences. The impact of volume rate to ground price is much more sensitive than its to floor area price, and the price performance attenuation gradually from the center to the periphery.The systematic study of the tempo-spatial evolution of urban residential land price and its influencing factors is relatively lack in the domestic. The urban residential land market grows in the transition era of rapid economic development, and has obvious traces of the system, the continuous adjustment of policies guide the phased evolution of urban residential space. Therefore, this paper analyzed the internal mechanism of the tempo-spatial evolution of urban residential land price in China from the perspective of the government action, and examined the economic functions of the government in the regulation of residential land price, then took Wuhan City residential land case since the operation of "Bid Invitation, Auction and Listing system" mechanism as empirical research. The results can not only help to deepen and improve disciplines theoretical system and provide guidance for future empirical research, and will provide guidance for the optimization of urban land resources and regulation of real estate market in both theory and practice.更多还原