【作者】 冯有良；

【导师】 高强；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 自然资源是一个国家经济、社会蓬勃发展的最基本要素。人类社会存在和发展始终离不开自然资源。随着人类认知水平的不断提高和科学技术快速发展，人类对自然资源的开发利用程度正逐渐加深。从古到今，自然资源开发经历了从单一地上到地上地下兼顾，从单一陆地到陆地海洋兼顾的进程。广袤无垠的海洋蕴藏着极为丰富的海洋生物、海洋油气、海洋矿产等自然资源。20世纪80~90年代，以美国为首的发达国家率先制定了海洋开发战略，随后日本、英国、俄罗斯等国也先后制定了海洋开发战略。我国在上个世纪90年代制定《中国海洋21世纪议程》，提出把海洋资源可持续开发利用作为我国发展海洋事业的指导思想。海洋独特的自然地理环境决定了海洋资源开发不同于陆地资源开发，除了技术、经济、生态环境等方面的制约因素，海洋灾害是影响我国近海海洋资源开发不可忽略的因素，从某种意义上说，海洋灾害是制约近海海洋资源开发最重要的因素之一。鉴于此，在研究过程中立足于系统工程论、灾害学、可持续发展理论、协同学、海洋资源开发理论、海洋工程的理论与方法做了如下研究工作：（1）在明确研究背景与目的，熟悉国内外研究现状的基础上，准确界定我国近海海洋资源开发灾害管理的研究边界，阐述本课题研究的整体思路，述评本研究所涉及的主要海洋灾害的测度方法。界定海洋资源开发相关概念，对海洋资源的构成，我国近海海洋资源的分布进行阐述；分析研究近海海洋资源开发灾害管理的相关基础理论，对比测度海洋灾害的理论与方法。（2）针对影响我国近海海洋资源开发的不同类型海洋灾害发生的时间、空间、方位等特征进行统计分析，总结其发生的时空分布规律。着重分析海洋灾害影响我国近海海洋资源开发的致灾机理，介绍我国近海海洋资源开发的现状，对海洋灾害影响我国近海海洋资源开发的致灾机理进行剖析；理论联系实际，从海洋灾害影响近海海洋资源开发的程度和导致灾害发生两个层面进行分析。（3）海洋灾害影响我国近海海洋资源开发测度体系构建作为论文研究的核心部分。在定性剖析近海致灾因子作用机理的基础上，考虑致灾因子影响海洋资源开发的特点，构建致灾因子的定量测度模型。然后在定性剖析近海主要海洋灾害致灾作用机理的基础上，考虑我国近海海洋资源开发的海域利用类型、自然地理环境、经济社会发展状况等方面的15个指标，构建海洋灾害定性测度体系。统计分析收集到的我国近海海域海况数据资料和相关文献，根据要测度的各个致灾因子形成不同的样本，根据海洋灾害对海洋资源开发的影响程度设定阈值，运用建立的定量测度模型对我国近海的主要致灾因子按照不同重现期从不同的空间、方位进行测度，最终得到致灾因子的定量测度结果。运用综合评价方法确定定性测度指标体系中的各个指标的权重系数，经过专家打分确定各个指标的数值，把计算出的定量测度结果带入定性测度指标体系，最终得到定性测度结果。海洋灾害影响我国近海海洋资源开发的定量测度结果反映的是海洋灾害的破坏强度；把定量结果带入定性测度指标体系，经过专家打分确定的是海洋灾害影响海洋资源开发的致灾概率。经过定量计算和定性分析后基本得出特定海域海洋灾害影响海洋资源开发的情况。（4）近海海洋资源开发御灾管理国际经验总结。借鉴美国、英国、俄罗斯、日本等发达国家在海洋资源开发、海洋灾害管理、海洋综合管理等方面的成功经验和做法，着重参考以上各国在海洋灾害御灾管理组织、御灾管理运行机制、御灾管理法律保障体系等方面的先进做法，总结发达国家在海洋灾害管理和海洋资源开发方面的共同特点。（5）保障我国近海海洋资源开发的御灾管理实现路径。在以上各个部分研究结果的基础上，借鉴国外发达国家和地区在海洋管理方面的成功经验，确定我国海洋资源开发御灾管理的基本原则和思路，提出优化我国近海海洋资源开发御灾管理机制的建议，从海洋灾害日常管理、海洋灾害监测预报、海洋灾害事中控制和海洋灾害后恢复重建四个方面确定我国近海海洋资源开发御灾管理的实现路径。御灾管理涵盖主要海洋灾害和突发事件的日常管理工作、预防与应急准备工作、监测与预警工作、应急处置与救援工作、灾后恢复与重建工作。实现路径综合考虑灾害应急机制、灾害预防机制、灾害预警机制、御灾反应机制和灾害控制机制，从全灾种、全过程、全方位、全天候、全人员和全社会的角度寻求保障我国海洋资源开发的可行路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Natural resources is the most basic element of a country’s economic and socialflourishing. The existence and development of human society has always beeninseparable from the natural resources. With the continuous improvement of the levelof human cognition and the rapid development of science and technology, the degreeof exploitation of natural resources is gradually deepened. Since ancient times, naturalresource development has experienced a long tough process. The vast expanse ofocean are extremely rich in marine life resource, marine oil and gas resource, marinemineral and other natural resources.80to90years of the20th century, developedcountries led by the United States take the lead in developing a marine developmentstrategy. Followed by Japan, the United Kingdom, Russia and other countries hasdeveloped a marine development strategy. In the90s of the last century, Chinaformulated the "China Ocean Agenda21", put forward the sustainable developmentand utilization of marine resources as the cause of China’s development of marineguiding ideology.The ocean’s unique natural and geographical environment determines thedevelopment of marine resources is different from the development of land resources.In addition to the constraints of the technical, economic, ecological environment,marine disasters affecting our coastal marine resources development factors can notbe ignored. In a sense, the marine disaster is one of the most important factorsrestricting offshore marine resources development. In view of this, based on thetheory of systems engineering disaster science, sustainable development theory,synergetics, the theory of development of marine resources, marine engineeringtheory and methods to do the following research work:(1)Clear research background and purpose, and familiar with the research status at home and abroad. Accurately define the boundary of disaster management of ourcoastal marine resources development. Expounded the whole idea of this research.Commentary on the method of the Institute involved a measure of marine disasters.The definition of marine resources development related concepts. Elaboratecomposition of marine resources and the distribution of our coastal marine resources.Analysis of the underlying theory of the offshore disaster management of marineresources development, comparative measure theory and method of marine disasters.(2) Statistical analysis for the different types of marine disasters affecting ourcoastal marine resources development time, space, and orientation characteristics.Summing up the temporal and spatial distribution of its occurrence. AnalyzedFormation Mechanism of marine disasters, the development of China’s coastal marineresources. Introduces the status quo of China’s coastal marine resources development.Formation Mechanism of parsing marine disasters impact the development of China’scoastal marine resources. Theory with practice, from marine disasters affect thedegree of development of the offshore marine resources and lead to disaster occurredtwo levels of analysis.(3) Marine disasters affect our coastal marine resources development measureSystem as a core part of the thesis. On the basis of qualitative profiling offshorehazard factor mechanism. Consider the hazard characteristics of the factors affectingthe development of marine resources, Quantitative model building hazard. Then in thequalitative analysis of offshore marine disasters causing mechanism based on.Consider the waters of our coastal marine resources development to take advantage ofthe14indicators of the type, natural and geographical environment, economic andsocial development. Construction of marine disasters qualitative measure system. Thestatistical analysis of data collected from China’s coastal waters sea conditions andrelated literature. To measure hazard to the formation of the different samples.According to marine disasters on the development of marine resources set threshold.Established quantitative model to measure the different return periods from differentspace orientation of China’s coastal waters hazard. The resulting hazard quantitativemeasure results. Weight coefficient comprehensive evaluation method to determine the qualitative measurement indicator system indicators. Rate by experts to determinethe value of various indicators. To calculate the quantitative measurement of resultsinto a qualitative measurement indicator system. Final qualitative measure results.Marine disasters, the development of China’s coastal marine resources for quantitativemeasurement results reflect the strength of the destruction of marine disasters.Quantitative results into qualitative measurement indicator system. Scoring by expertsto determine the hazard probability of marine disasters affecting the development ofmarine resources. Calculated after quantitative and qualitative analysis of the basicdraw the specific ocean disasters affecting the development of marine resources.(4) Offshore marine resources development Resilience ManagementInternational Experience. Learn from the successful experiences and practices of theUnited States, Britain, Russia, Japan and other developed countries in thedevelopment of marine resources, marine disaster management, integrated oceanmanagement. Focuses refer to the above countries advanced practices in the marinedisaster the Imperial disaster management organizations, the Imperial disastermanagement operation mechanism, Imperial disaster management laws and securitysystem. Summing up a common feature of developed countries in the marine disastermanagement and development of marine resources.(5) The protection of our coastal marine resources development in the Imperialdisaster management path. On the basis of the above findings of the various parts ofthe draw on the successful experience of foreign countries and regions in marinemanagement. Determine the development of our marine resources the Imperialdisaster management principles and ideas. Proposed to optimize the proposal ofChina’s offshore marine resources development the Imperial disaster managementmechanism. From the day-to-day management of marine disasters, ocean disastermonitoring and forecasting, marine disasters thing in control and marine disasterrecovery and reconstruction in four areas to determine our coastal marine resourcesdevelopment the Imperial disaster management to achieve path. The Imperial disastermanagement covers the day-to-day management of the major marine disasters andemergencies, prevention and emergency preparedness, monitoring and early warning, emergency response and rescue, disaster recovery and reconstruction work. Pathconsidering the disaster emergency response mechanism, disaster preventionmechanism, disaster warning mechanism, the Imperial disaster response mechanismsand disaster control mechanism.The whole process from full-hazard, all-round,all-weather, all staff and the point of view of society as a whole to seek the protectionof marine resources development feasible path.更多还原