【作者】 苏蔚潇；

【导师】 丁德文；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 环境工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 海岸带综合承载能力是海岸带及海洋主体功能区划的主要依据。它反映了海岸带环境、资源、生态系统对人类活动的综合承受能力，是划分海岸带优先开发、重点开发、限制开发和禁止开发区域的基础。本论文针对以海湾型、淤泥质海岸为特点的大规模港口、临海工业开发建设活动，对天津滨海新区的城市化与工业化区域进行调查，明确目前其生态环境现状及主要问题，掌握城市化与工业化进程对海岸带生态系统的压力，评估该区域综合承载力，为渤海海岸带开发布局、环境管理以及主体功能区划规划提供科学依据和技术支撑。本论文构建海岸带区域生态环境综合承载力评价指标体系，并利用2005-2009年间天津滨海新区的经济、社会、生态、环境及人文等数据，对海岸带的综合承载力进行评估。调查诊断分析结果显示，天津滨海新区面临的主要生态环境问题包括：（1）入海污染源的水质超标严重；（2）河流入海口水质污染严重；（3）近岸海域水质较差，污染海域未现好转；（4）入海污染物通量仍然较大。而形成这些问题的主要驱动力为：（1）过高的海岸带开发强度；和（2）滨海新区的大规模工业化、城市化所带来的经济活动。本文利用P-S-R概念模型，结合目前国内外有关海岸带综合承载力评价的各种方法，构建了海岸带区域生态环境综合承载力评价指标体系。指标体系由目标层、项目层、因素层和指标层构成，共14个具体评价指标用以评估承载力的压力和承压状况。计算结果表明，随着滨海新区的发展，海岸带承载指标出现明显下降趋势，从2005年到2009年承压指数从0.854下降到0.227，而压力指标呈缓慢上升趋势，从2005年到2009年压力指标由0.488上升到0.512。随着滨海新区的开发活动、经济生活活动和人口数量的快速增长，承压比从2005年的1.75逐渐下降到2007年的1.20，再到2009年的0.44。这些结果说明了天津滨海新区海岸带的综合承载压力日益增大，而承载能力却越来越差。根据天津滨海新区的海岸带综合承载力分析结果，本文提出管理对策如下：（1）树立可持续发展的理念，可持续发展要切实做到在实现经济目标的同时，实现相应的环境目标，使区域发展走上可持续发展的良性循环轨道；（2）优化产业结构，减轻海岸带压力，优先发展知识化、生态化的第三产业，大力推动生态产业转变与改造；（3）坚持陆海统筹，优化海岸带布局，海岸带区域生态系统管理要综合考虑、整体部署，协调岸线滩涂资源的保护与开发关系；（4）重视经济发展与海洋生态环境的改善同步。更多还原

【Abstract】 Integrated coastal carrying capacity （ICCC） is one of the important bases forcoastal and marine major function oriented zoning. It reflects the supporting capacityof the coastal environment, resources and ecosystem to human activities. It is also thefoundation to formate the priority development area, key development area, restricteddevelopment area, and prohibited development area on the coast. The paper isfocusing on the Tianjin Binhai New Area, which specified with bay-type, muddy coast,heavy developed with nearshore harbor and onshore industry. The ecological andenvironmental issues are analyzed by investigation with coastal urbanization andindustrization, then after the pressures to the coastal ecosystem are identified. TheICCC is evaluated to provide scientific supports to the developing layout plans,environmental management, and major function oriented zoning plans of Bohai area.The evaluation index for ICCC is built up in the paper, and the ICCC of TianjinBinhai New Area is assessed by using economic, social, ecological, environmental,and humanity data from2005-2009.The main ecological and environmental issues are identified by surveying anddiagnostic analysis, and the results shows:(1) pollution discharge water exceeds thedischarge allowable standard;(2) water quality of rivers’ outlets are heavily polluted;(3) nearshore seawater still are in bad quality, the polluted seas do not ameliorate;(4)the flux of pollutants into the sea is still huge. The dirver forces of these issues aremanifested in the following aspects:(1) high intensity of coastal developing; and (2)activities from large-scale urbanization and massive industrization in the coast ofTianjin Binhai New Area.An ICCC evaluation index is built up based on the Pressure-State-Response(P-S-R) concept model, which integrates various ICCC assessment methodsworldwidely as well. The ICCC evaluation index composes of objective layer, itemlayer, factor layer, and indicator layer. It contains14specific indicators to assess thecarrying capacity and the pressure conditions of the coast. The result shows thecarrying capacity indicator dramaticly declined with the development of Tianjin Binhai New Area. It is dropping from0.854to0.227from2005to2009, whilepressure indicator is rising from0.488to0.512. Following with the development ofthe Tianjin Binhai New Area, the intensity of development activities and economicactivities, as well as the population are rapidly grown. The ratio of carrying capacityto pressure decreased from1.75in2005to1.20in2007, then0.44in2009. All theseresults manifest that environmental pressure continuously increased in coastal zone,while the carrying capacity was getting worse.According to consequence of ICCC evaluation in Tianjin Binhai New Area, themanagement countermeasures are suggested as follows:(1) to consolidate the conceptof sustainable development, sustainable development must be able to achieve theeconomic goals and environmental objectives at the same time, so that regionalsustainable development can be a benign cycle track;(2) to optimize the industrialstructure to alleviate the pressure of the coastal zone, and give priority to thedevelopment of technological and ecological tertiary industry, promote eco-industrialtransition and transformation;(3) to adhere to the coordination of land and sea andoptimize the layout of the coastal zone, comprehensively consider and overall arrangeecosystem of coastal zone, harmonize the relationship between development andprotection between marine beach resources;(4) to put a high value on the economicdevelopment and the marine ecological environment improvement simultaneously.更多还原