【作者】 张征华；

【导师】 彭迪云；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化已经成为当今世界影响最为深远的全球性环境问题之一。2007年联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的第四次评估报告(AR4)指出：全球变暖现象,有90%的可能是由于人类活动排放的温室气体增加所导致的。中国作为温室气体排放大国和负责任的环境大国,承诺到2020年,单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%-45%。城市是我国国民经济和社会发展的中心,又是温室气体排放的主要来源,中国城市在应对气候变化和温室气体减排方面发挥着决定作用。城市低碳发展是全国实现低碳发展的必经之路,也是城市可持续发展和生态文明建设的必由之路。南昌市是全国第一批低碳试点城市中唯一的中部省会城市,又在全国较早提出低碳城市构想。因此,以南昌市为样本研究城市低碳发展具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。基于可持续发展理论等基本理论,本文采用反馈基模分析法、流率基本入树建模法、层次分析法(AHP)、数据包络分析法(DEA)等多种方法,对低碳城市的内涵与外延进行界定,阐述目前我国城市低碳发展面临的机遇和挑战,总结国内外不同城市低碳发展模式,建立城市碳排放测算体系,对全国首批低碳试点城市南昌市碳排放进行测算与分析,并重点对工业各行业碳排放进行测算和绩效分析,在此基础上构建反馈基模,建立基于反馈基模的城市低碳发展系统流率基本入树模型,通过仿真确定南昌市2020年碳减排目标和方向,明确南昌市碳减排的路径和相关措施。本文在结构上共分为10章。其中,第1章为绪论,第2章为文献综述与理论基础,第3章为低碳城市的内涵与外延,第4章为城市低碳发展实践研究,第5章为城市碳排放的测算与分析,第6章为城市碳减排目标的确定,第7章为城市低碳主导产业的选择,第8章为南昌城市低碳发展路径,第9章为南昌市低碳发展保障措施,第10章为结论与展望。除绪论、结论与展望之外,本文研究主要分为四大部分：第一,界定了低碳城市的内涵与外延,总结了国内外城市低碳发展的模式。城市低碳发展应以可持续发展理论、生态经济理论、能源经济理论、系统理论和政府干预理论等为指导。城市低碳发展的目标是实现低碳城市。低碳城市是在保障城市经济增长态势不变、城市居民生活水平应有提高的前提下,化石能源消费及以二氧化碳为主的温室气体排放处于相对较低水平的城市。低碳城市具有阶段性、经济性、系统性和易量化性等特点。低碳城市的核心内容包括低碳城市规划、低碳产业、低碳能源、低碳交通和低碳建筑等方面。纵观国外城市低碳发展,气候驱动是其背景,数据先行是其基础,全球联合是其平台,全面推进是其路径。而我国大部分城市仍处于城市化、工业化进程中,低碳发展的选择源于工业且重点领域亦在工业。第二,建立了城市碳排放测算体系,对南昌市城市层面和工业层面的碳排放进行了测算和分析。基于IPCC(2006)温室气体清单的编制体系,以生产模式为主,以消费模式为辅,从能源活动、工业生产过程、农业、土地利用变化和林业、废弃物处置五个单元建立了一套城市碳排放测算体系,并对南昌市碳排放进行测算与分析。工业是南昌市碳排放的主要来源,因此进一步对工业各行业碳排放进行测算,并以资本、劳动、能源为投入,以工业总产值和二氧化碳为产出,运用数据包络分析方法(DEA),对南昌市工业曼奎斯特碳排放绩效指数进行测算,该指数构成了低碳城市主导产业评价指标体系之一。第三,构建了城市低碳发展系统流率基本入树模型,确定了城市碳减排目标及方向。将流位变量的确定、反馈基模的定性分析与流率基本入树建模的定量分析首次进行了有机的结合,构建了基于反馈基模分析的流率基本入树建模法。运用该方法对南昌市低碳发展进行仿真及调控参数对比分析,确定南昌市2020年碳减排目标为47%,并明确了碳减排的重点方向为优化产业结构、降低单位GDP能源消费量、优化能源结构、降低单位能源碳排放量、倡导低碳生活、增加林业碳汇量。基于上述六个方向,进一步明确南昌市低碳发展路径应从产业和城市两个层面展开。第四,构建了城市低碳主导产业的选择模型,提出了城市低碳发展的对策措施和保障措施。产业层面,南昌市低碳发展主要路径应通过低碳主导产业带动产业结构优化。为此,基于低碳城市和低碳主导产业的内涵,构建了低碳主导产业选择的产业效率基准、产业潜力基准、产业关联基准和产业效益基准,采用层次分析法(AHP)构建了13项指标组成的城市低碳主导产业选择模型,并对南昌市制造业和服务业进行实证研究。城市层面,南昌市低碳发展主要路径应发展低碳能源、发展低碳交通、推进低碳建筑、加强低碳技术研发、倡导低碳生活以及增加林业碳汇,并在此基础上提出了相应的对策措施。为顺利实施上述措施,应加强制度保障、技术保障、人才保障、财税保障、资金保障、机制保障和组织保障。本文基于低碳城市的内涵与外延,以南昌市为样本,建立了适用于城市的碳排放测算体系,在此基础上构建基于反馈基模的城市低碳发展系统流率基本入树模型,通过仿真确定南昌市2020年碳减排目标和方向,明确南昌市碳减排的路径及相关措施。上述碳减排确定思路和低碳发展措施对于其他城市低碳发展具有借鉴和推广意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Climate change which takes global warming as the main feature has become one of the most far-reaching global environmental problems right now. In2007, the United Nations intergovernmental committee of experts on climate change (IPCC) published Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) notes:Global warming,90%may due to human activities as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases. China as a greenhouse gas-emitting countries and responsible big country, committed to2020, per unit of GDP CO2emissions decreased by40%-45%than in2005. City is the center of the national economy and social development of our country, as well as the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, those in response to climate change and greenhouse gas emission reduction plays a decisive role. Low carbon city development is the only way which must be passed the national implementation of low carbon that is the route one must take, and city sustainable development and ecological civilization construction. Nanchang is the national first batch of low carbon pilot cities, the only provincial capital in central cities, also the early idea of low carbon city. Therefore, Nanchang as the sample research of low carbon city development has important theoretical significance and practical significance.Based on the basic theory such as sustainable development, feedback basic mode analysis, rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), data envelopment analysis (DEA) and other methods are adopted in this dissertation to define the connotation and denotation of low-carbon city, to comb the opportunities and challenges facing in China, to summarize the low carbon development model of different city at home and abroad, to establish the city carbon emission measurement system which is used to measurement and analysis on Nanchang, with an emphasis on industrial carbon emissions measurement and performance analysis. On that basis and the feedback basic mode, the dissertation builds rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method to set Nanchang2020carbon reduction target and direction through the method of simulation, so as to clear carbon reduction path and related measures by the same token. In this dissertation, the structure is divided into10chapters. Among them, chapter1is introduction, chapter2is literature review and theoretical basis, chapter3for low-carbon city connotation and denotation, chapter4for low carbon city development study practice, chapter5for the urban carbon emissions measurement and analysis, chapter6for the determination of urban carbon emissions reduction targets, chapter7for low carbon city leading industry choice, chapter8for Nanchang city low carbon development path, chapter9for Nanchang city low carbon development safeguard measures, chapter10is conclusion and prospect. In addition to the introduction, conclusion and prospect, this thesis is divided into four parts:First, defines the connotation and denotation of low-carbon city, summarizes the domestic and foreign city low-carbon development mode.City of low carbon development should take the sustainable development theory, ecological economy theory, energy economics theory, system theory and the theory of government intervention as a guide. It is to achieve a low-carbon city goal. Low-carbon city is in the protection of urban economic growth momentum remains unchanged, under the premise of urban residents should improve living standards, the fossil energy consumption and carbon greenhouse gas emissions at a relatively low level of the city. This city has the phase, economy, system, quantitative characteristics. The core content of low carbon city include low carbon city planning, low carbon industry, low carbon energy, low carbon transport, low carbon buildings etc. Reviewing low carbon development in foreign city, climatic driving is the background, the data in advance is the foundation, the global coalition is its platform, promote its path. While most cities in our country are still in the process of urbanization, industrialization, low-carbon development choice comes from industries and key areas in industry.Second, urban carbon emissions measurement system is established, on the city and industry level of analysis has been made for the carbon emissions.Based on the IPCC (2006) establishment system of greenhouse gas inventories, mainly in the production mode, supplemented by consumption patterns, from energy activities, industrial processes, agriculture, land use change and forestry, waste disposal five units built a city carbon emission measurement system, calculating and analyzing of Nanchang city carbon emissions. Industry is the main source of Nanchang carbon emissions, further calculated on industrial carbon emissions, and with the inputs of capital, labor, energy, the output of industrial and CO2, using the data envelopment analysis (DEA), to calculate the Nanchang City Industrial Mann Qwest carbon emissions performance index, one of the leading industry evaluation index system of low-carbon city.Third, build a low carbon city development system rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method, the urban carbon emissions reduction targets and direction is determined.The determination of the flow-bit variable, feedback basic mode qualitative analysis and rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method quantitative analysis carried out an organic combination for the first time, build the fundamental mode analysis based on the feedback basic mode of rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method. The method is applied to simulation and analysis of control parameter on the development of low-carbon city, Nanchang, whose carbon reduction targets of47%, in2020. And clearly the key direction of the carbon emissions in order to optimize the industrial structure, optimize energy structure, reduce the unit GDP energy consumption, reduce carbon emissions by unit energy, advocating low carbon life, increase the amount of carbon sinks. Based on the above six directions, to further clarify Nanchang low-carbon development path should be expand from industry and urban two levels.Fourth, construct the low carbon city of leading industry selection model, puts forward the countermeasures of city low carbon development measures and safeguard measures.From the level of industry, Nanchang low-carbon development path should be driven by low-carbon leading industries industrial structure optimization. Therefore, based on the connotation of low carbon cities and low-carbon industries, establish the efficiency of choosing the leading industry in low carbon industry benchmark, industry potential datum, the industrial connection datum and industry benchmark, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to constructed the13indicators city low-carbon leading industries selection model, and makes an empirical study of manufacturing and service industry of Nanchang. From the level of City, Nanchang low carbon development path should be develop low-carbon energy, low carbon traffic, promote the low carbon building, strengthening of low-carbon technology research and development, advocate low carbon life and increase forest carbon sink, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. System security, technical security, personnel security, fiscal security, financial security, mechanisms to protect and organizational guarantee for the smooth implementation of the above measures should be strengthened.This dissertation based on the connotation of low carbon city and extension, with Nanchang City as a sample, carbon emissions measurement system was established, build the fundamental mode analysis based on the feedback basic mode of rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method. Nanchang2020carbon reduction target and direction is clear, carbon reduction path and related measures by the same token, through the method of simulation. Determined above carbon reduction and low carbon development measures have reference and promotion significance for low carbon development of other city.更多还原