【作者】 王和平；

【导师】 乌云娜；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 工程与项目管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 能源是关系国家经济命脉的重要战略物资,如何有效的开发利用我国潜在的各种能源,直接关乎到国民经济的发展和中国经济的增长。在进行多项目集投资决策时需实现项目目标、项目集管理目标与企业战略目标梯级协同,这就要求三个管理目标达到梯级战略对应的目的。以项目为导向的新能源电力项目要求项目目标、项目集管理目标与企业战略目标实现协同。多项目的管理要比单项目的管理更为复杂,多项目的组合不仅仅是项目间的组合,更要实现多项目组合管理目标的实现,以达到项目集管理目标与企业的战略目标间协同的目的。由于新能源电力项目所涉及的外部因素和内部因素是动态的,参与项目投资的投资人竞争性强,投资主体的投资行为影响面大、项目建设涉及地域广,这些特征给新能源电力项目的投资决策带来了困难。项目所处环境的内外部因素有些是可以量化,有些则不能,而这些因素的实时动态特性对项目决策以及信息对战略的对应性起到了决定性作用。只有当这些要素之间形成一种相互协调、和谐一致的状态时,才能满足在企业战略对应的前提下,实现项目的最优决策。实际上新能源电力企业面临的是对不同类型的发电项目的组合管理问题。PMI在《项目组合管理标准》中提到项目组合管理必须考虑投资和战略的一致性。在此,我们定义新能源电力项目组合管理的概念为“在可利用的资源和企业战略计划的指导下,进行多个新能源电力项目或项目群投资的选择和支持”。战略对应考虑组织某个具体工作领域的战略方向、应用目标与组织战略的方向、目标一致、协同的行为。由于新能源电力项目所涉及的外部因素和内部因素是动态的,参与项目投资的投资人竞争性强,投资主体的投资行为影响面大、项目建设涉及地域广,这些特征给新能源电力项目的投资决策带来了困难。所以本文致力于研究新能源电力项目决策的适时战略对应问题。此问题的概念可以阐述为：“在既定战略下,面对复杂多变的能源发展环境,新能源电力企业如何适时地做出战略对应的组合管理决策”。本文第2章将着重从理论上分析适时战略对应的可行性与具体方法。第3章将分析适时战略对应的组织基础及管理模式基础。第4章着重分析如何通过对KSF的适时生成,来建立新能源电力项目组合适时战略对应决策的基础。第5章根据前述分析和信息系统原理,建立了实现相应信息系统的框架设计。第6章根据已实现的信息系统,阐述了实际应用的案例。第7章提出了结论和展望。综上,本文进行的主要工作如下：(1)针对新能源电力项目决策时出现的问题,从全寿命周期项目组合管理的角度出发,引入实时战略对应理论,建立基于KSF (Key Success Factor,关键成功因素)的新能源电力企业项目评价体系,并将数据挖掘技术应用于KSF的实时生成中,以对新能源电力项目决策起到指导作用。(2)将实时战略对应理论引入新能源电力项目的决策中,在各投资人利用有限的资源配置的前提下,实现了项目目标、项目集管理目标与企业战略目标的协同以及KSF之间的协调,这对新能源电力项目的决策起到了决定性作用,从而实现以创新的管理手段解决以能源项目为导向的集团发展执行力问题。根据其集团决策、分公司统筹、项目公司运营的特征,建立以决策层、管理层和执行层为架构的三层项目组合管理架构。组合管理以目标为中心,而目标的依据应该是集团战略。根据管理层的组织特征,探究分公司职能部门与项目部可能的项目目标管理交叉点,以探求有效项目组合管理模式,形成新能源发电企业组合管理模式。(3)对新能源电力企业在企业产业结构、竞争策略、环境因素和暂时因素等方面的特点进行实际调研,得出企业成功影响因素的及其相关业务表征的原始数据。然后在其基础上,运用系统分析的方法,梳理因素间的因果链关系；并用粗糙集等方法进行因素的约简工作,进而得出一系列静态的KSF。拟在以上研究的基础上,进一步分析KSF与企业基础业务数据间的联系,为进行企业KSF实时生成研究打下基础。建立动态的KSF项目评价体系,借助管理信息系统收集各时点KSF的相关数据,根据此数据生成不同时点的KSF,进而对不同项目组合在全寿命周期中的KSF进行评价,以此评价结果作为新能源电力项目决策的依据。(4)通过数据挖掘技术,分析企业的实时内外部条件,从而得出企业的实时KSF状态,而企业的战略目标可以通过管理信息系统前台写入,这就实现了企业战略目标与企业KSF的关联。该管理手段对由于内外部条件的变化而对决策产生巨大影响的新能源电力项目起到了指导作用,并实现了企业战略目标与项目目标的战略对应。建立了一种KSF自动生成机制,这种机制从新能源电力企业所有业务,包括项目建设、项目运营和企业总部运作等中收集实时数据,通过数据挖掘的方法,找到企业新的KSF,从而实现企业KSF变化的自动提醒。这样可以实时地根据企业战略和企业内外条件的改变更新项目决选标准,并且对决策者起到提醒变化的作用。(5)在需求分析的基础上,提出了实时决策信息平台设计的方案,分析了系统关键成功因素,提出了系统架构,为文中建立的理论与方法提供了实现路径。针对系统需求,提出新能源电力企业的项目化业务流程重组方式。企业业务流程的重组应结合决策系统对数据入口的需求,将KSF挖掘的基础数据与项目化业务数据进行最大程度的融合。根据企业特点,考虑到系统性能需求、可维护性需求和可修改性需求,设计合理的系统架构。包括设计系统的分层模式,系统持久性存储方式和系统对象等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is a kind of important strategic material which shows great influence on the national economy. The development of potential energy directly affects the growth of Chinese economy. Along with the application of strategic rising industry policy in china’s twelfth five-year plan, the amount of renewable energy power project experienced great increase. The investors are facing more and more choice of decision and portfolio in projects, and the problem of resource allocation and optimization in this procedure. Give the consideration of following elements:the dynamiccharacteristics of in-and-out influencing factors of the projects, the huge competitiveness in the investment, and the great influence of the investment in for example geo-economics, a great difficulty has risen in the investment decision of these projects. Some of the quantization of outer factors is easy, while the other is not, the timely character of which has a key influence in decision and information alignment in strategy. Only when the harmony state of these factors is achieved, can the best decision be made.The concept of renewable energy electric power project portfolio management is defined as "in the guidance of usable resources and enterprise strategy, the processing of selection and support of the investment of projects or project groups". The concept of timely strategy alignment can be defined as "the processing of decision making of renewable electric power enterprise under certain strategy and versatile environment"Chapter2analyzed the feasibility and methods of timely decision making. Chapter3analyzed the management model and organization foundation. Chapter4analyzed the method of making timely strategy-alignment decision-making through the mining of KSF. Chapter5made an information system plan based on the theories above. Chapter6elaborated a case based on a realized system.Based on above, the main work of this paper is as followed:(1) As for the decision problems of renewable energy power project, from the perspective of whole lifecycle project portfolio management, a timely correspondingstrategy theory is used, and an evaluation system of renewable energy power enterprises based on KSF (Key Success Factor) is built, while also data mining technology is applied in the timely production of KSF. These results can give guidance to the decision of renewable energy power project.(2) Timely correspondingstrategy theory is brought into the decision of renewable energy power project, thus given limited resources, investors can balance between achieving project goals, project set goals, as well as enterprise strategic objectives, while also keep harmony with KSF. Based on the group company decision, branch company planning and project company operation structure, the management achitechture of decision layer, management layer and operation layer is built. Target is the core factoer of portfolio management, which is based on group company strategy. Based on the organization charactors, the cross point of functional department of branch company and target management in project organizaton is researched, which is to achieve effective management mode of portfolio management.(3) Dynamic KSF project evaluation system is built, and management information system is adopted to collect some data of every individual time spot, and then different time spot of KSF can be obtained, therefore we can evaluate the KSF in whole lifecycle for different project portfolios, whose evaluation results can be useful for the decision of renewable energy power project. This method plays exemplary role in enhancing the decision of renewable energy power project under multi-projectportfolios. Dynamic KSF project evaluation system is built. Relative data is built through management information system, based on which the KSF is created in different time point, so as to excute KSF evaluation on different project portfolio in the whole life-cycle. The evalution result can be used as refference to project decision.(4) Using data mining technology, the timely internal and external conditions of enterprise can be analyzed, and the timely KSF conditions of enterprise can be obtained. Given that the strategic objectives of the enterprise can be written through the front of management information systems, so enterprisestrategic objectives are liked to enterprise KSF. This management method gives useful guidance to renewable energy power project whose decisions are greatly affected by the change of internal and external conditions, and also realizes the correspondence of enterprisestrategic objectives and project goals.The auto KSF produciton mechanism is built, which collection timely data from all business area of a renewable energy company, including projcet construction, project operation and the operation of head quarter. Achieving new KSF of a company by data mining, to realise auto alter of KSF variation. By this method, the decision standard can be timely updated based on enterprise strategy and in-and-out conditions and perform a altering funciton to decision makers.(5) On the foundation of requirement analysis, a design scheme of timely decision-making information platform is built, and the key success factors of this system are discussed, while the system architecture is proposed. Therefore, they provides a practical path to the theory and method in this paper. The reengineering of enterprise’s business process should combine with the requirments of decision system’s data entrance, intergrating KSF’s foundamental data with project business data in the greatest degree. According to enterprise’s characters, system performance, maintainability and modifiability should be considered to design a reasonable system structure, including system’s hierarchical models, persistent storage and objectives.更多还原