【作者】 胡文艺；

【导师】 王绪本；

【作者基本信息】 成都理工大学 ， 地球探测与信息技术， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 旅游安全是制约西藏旅游产业健康和快速发展的主要因素之一。西藏高原平均海拔超过4000m，旅游资源快速开发与环境承载力、旅游接待能力之间矛盾突出；旅游线路长且易受灾害影响，旅游淡旺季特征明显，导致旅游管理运营成本高；而高海拔地区特殊的地理条件，加之相对落后的基础设施条件和公共服务能力，使西藏旅游业应对安全风险的能力更加脆弱。提高旅游服务质量、保障游客人身安全、保护自然生态环境是西藏旅游产业可持续发展的基本保障。聚焦有关高原旅游景区预警的新方法探索和技术解决方案，本论文选题来源于国家科技支撑计划课题“西藏旅游危机预防与应急救援关键技术研究及应用示范”（编号：2009BAH50B02）。以珠峰景区为核心研究对象，根据高海拔地区旅游风险特征，研究基于空间探测的旅游安全预警模型，整合多学科手段建立旅游安全综合评价方法体系，提出一套适用于西藏高原的旅游安全预警信息采集、处理和分析模式。论文研究成果不仅服务于研究区，为我国乃至世界高海拔地区的旅游安全预警提供了探索的思路。珠峰景区由于其地理环境的特殊性，旅游产品结构以徒步、探险、科考等特种旅游为主，旅游安全的构成因素与其他景区具有明显差别。论文针对影响景区安全的关键因子，识别了地质灾害、景区承载力、高原反应三项主要旅游安全风险，并研究了相应的预警方法。在此基础上构建了旅游安全风险探测器，经模型综合评价和预警等级划分，完成对珠峰景区旅游安全的综合预警。主要成果与结论如下：（1）提出了基于GIS空间探测的旅游通道安全风险预警方法。对典型泥石流和崩塌灾害的地质环境条件、发育特征、形成机制及危害性，公路病害点的特征及危险进行剖析、评价；在ArcGIS9.3软件中，将缓冲区分析、叠加分析、空间关联分析、空间密度分析等空间分析模块进行集成应用，创建基于地理空间建模的旅游通道安全风险探测模型。通过旅游通道安全风险预警发现：沿旅游通道的地质灾害分布较为零散，造成珠峰景区的地灾危险性分布区较为破碎化。公路病害点的分布较为均匀，且集中分布于普那村、云加村、珠峰桥附近，与地质灾害点的分布趋势极为一致，说明定珠公路的公路病害点的发育在较大程度上受地质灾害的控制。从旅游安全通道风险探测结果看，安全区域离散分布在普那村至珠峰大本营路段的下半部分；一般危险区广泛分布；中等以上危险区分布较离散，集中于卧龙村、普那村、吉隆崩塌点和珠峰桥附近，其中的普那村中心位置为高危险区；全区高危险区仅分布于云加村和普那村附近。（2）设计了基于景观生态学和生态足迹法整合的区域旅游环境容量预警模型框架，提出了基于空间表达的旅游环境容量测算方法，即在景观生态学“基质-斑块-廊道”的理论框架下，将景区环境承载力所决定的旅游环境容量，用GIS专题制图来表现旅游环境容量的空间分配格局。结果表明：珠峰景区旅游环境日容量1128人次高于定日县城732人次。珠峰景区的潜在旅游环境容量和现实旅游环境容量均处于弱载状态。目前一年5.91万人次游客量远低于其旅游环境所能承受的17.29万人次；也低于其接待设施所能承受的34.24万人次。尽管目前的实际旅游人数小于潜在旅游环境容量（17.29万人次）和现实旅游环境容量（34.24万人次）。但是，目前现实容量大于潜在容量，使整个珠峰景区已处于过度开发状态，旅游设施的承载状态为17.3%。若长期超过50%，则有可能使景区的潜在旅游环境容量透支。（3）提出了高原反应预警方法。通过分析AMS与个体因素的关系，以及AMS与生理指标关系，发现人体的下血压（舒张压）、额温、血氧浓度等生命体征与海拔之间有显著的相关关系，并选择三者作为高原反应预警模型的输入因子。再通过模糊BP神经网络，计算得到三项生命体征与人体高原反应之间的定量关系，建立了“海拔-生命体征-AMS”模式的高原反应预警模型。预警模型得到的仿真结果空间化后，显示出研究区高原反应的空间分布。结果表明：在珠峰景区内，高原反应的高发区域是在加吾拉山口和珠峰桥至珠峰大本营路段两个区域，低发区域是山口周边的较低地势区和珠峰桥附近的一片低地区域，在空间格局上与高程的分布高度耦合。（4）提出了旅游安全风险探测器的概念，阐述了探测器的结构、功能、工作原理。旅游安全风险探测器分为三个子探测器：旅游环境容量风险探测器，旅游通道安全风险探测器，高原反应风险探测器，分别用于探测游客在珠峰景区可能面临的旅游环境过载风险、旅游通道潜在地质灾害和公路病害风险及发生高原反应的风险。根据旅游环境容量风险探测器输出的风险等级，对珠峰景区的旅游安全风险等级分三种情景进行模拟预警（旅游环境容量弱载、饱和与过载）。模拟结果表明：在空间分布上，仅弱载情景下，珠峰景区内会有极小的安全区分布，全区大部都是一般危险区；饱和与过载情景下，吉隆崩塌点至珠峰大本营区域为最危险区域；在饱和情景下，全区无高危区分布，大部地区为一般危险区，加吾拉山口-卧龙村、普那村和吉隆崩塌点附近、珠峰桥附近区域是中等危险区；而在过载情景下，全区均为中等以上危险区，仅有极小的一般危险区分布。珠峰景区在环境容量弱载、饱和、过载情景下，旅游安全风险逐渐升高。（5）论文搭建了西藏旅游安全预警的软件模拟环境，模拟实现高海拔地区旅游安全预警的工作流程，验证相关方法、模型的实用效果。系统使用VB.NET10+ArcGIS Server API For Silverlight v2.3技术开发，根据游客实时位置，利用三个风险探测器评估游客的旅游风险预警等级，在基于WebGIS的软件环境中进行情景模拟，以可视化手段展示旅游环境容量风险探测、旅游通道安全风险探测和高原反应风险探测的动态交互过程。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tourism security is one of the main factors that restrict the health and fastdevelopment of Tibetan tourism. The average altitude of Tibetan plateau is over4,000meters. Its fast exploration of tourism resources have contradicted heavily with theenvironmental bearing ability and tourism reception capacity. The tourist routes here arevery long, and are easily affected by natural disasters, especially in the tourist peak season,which causes a high cost of tourism management and running. While the specialgeographical conditions of high latitude regions, combined with relatively laggard basicfacilities and public service, make the ability of Tibetan tourism to cope with safety riskeven weaker.It’s the basic guarantee of Tibetan tourism sustainable development to improve servicequality, to guarantee tourists’ safety and to protect the natural ecological environment.Focusing on the new method exploration and technical solutions related to early warning intourism scenic spot on plateau, the topic of this thesis came from the national science andtechnology support program “Study on Tibetan tourism crisis prevention and emergencyrescue key technology and its application demonstration (No.2009BAH50B02)”. MountEverest scenic spot as core research subject, according to tourism risk features on highlatitude areas, it studied early warning model of tourism safety based on space exploration,integrating methods of multidisciplinary to establish a comprehensive evaluation system oftourism safety, and put forward a set of information colleting, processing and analyzingmodel suitable for tourism safety early warning on Tibetan plateau. The researchachievement of this thesis not only service for the study area, but also provide explorationidea for tourism safety early warning in high altitude areas of our country even the wholeworld.Due to the geographical environmental particularity of Mount Everest scenic spot, thetourism here are mainly hiking, expedition and scientific investigation, so that its component factors of tourism safety are greatly different from other scenic spots. Accordingto the key factors affecting safety of this scenic spot, this thesis recognized three maintourism safety risks of geological hazard, scenic spot bearing ability, high altitude reaction,and researched corresponding early warning methods. Based on these, tourism safety riskdetectors were constructed, and through model comprehensive evaluation and earlywarning classification, tourism safety comprehensive early warning was completed in theMount Everest scenic spot.(1) The thesis put forward early warning method about geological hazard risk alongtour passages based on GIS space exploration. It analyzed and evaluated the geologicalcondition, development features, formation mechanism, harmfulness of typical debris flowand collapse along Dingzhu Road. Through integrated application of buffer analysis,overlay analysis, spatial correlation analysis and spatial density estimation in ArcGIS9.3software, a geological hazard risk detection model was established based on geographicalspace modeling. Through class early warning about geological hazard risk, it found that thegeological hazards were dispersed along the tour passages, which made the geologicalhazard risk areas distribute fragmented in the Mount Everest scenic spot. The risk roadpoints distributed relatively uniformly, while centralized near Puna Village, Yunjia Villageand Zhufeng Bridge. They had quite same distributing trend with geological hazard points,which indicates the growth of risk road points of Dingzhu Road was controlled bygeological hazard in great degree. Viewing from the risk detection results of tourism safetypassage, the safe areas discretely distributed along the down part of the road from PunaVillage to Zhufeng base camp; the general risk areas distributed widely; the above middiumrisk areas distributed relatively discretely, but centralized near Wolong Village, PunaVillage, Jilong collapse site and Zhufeng Bridge, and within which, the centre of PunaVillage had high risks; the high risk areas in the whole area only distributed near YunjiaVillage and Puna Village.(2) This thesis designed an early warning model framework about regional tourismenvironmental capacity based landscape ecology and ecological footprint method, and putforward a method to measure tourism environmental capacity based on space expression.That is, under the theory framework of “matrix-plaque-corridor” in landscape ecology,using GIS mapping function to manifest the spatial distribution pattern of tourismenvironmental capacity which are decided by the environmental bearing ability of thescenic spot. The result indicated: the tourism environmental daily capacity of MountEverest scenic spot was1128person times,732person times over that of Dingri City. Itspotential tourism environmental capacity and practical capacity were both in low bearing status. The annual tourist amount of59,100person times present was far below its tourismenvironmental capacity of172,900person times, also below the bearing capacity of itsreception facilities342,400person times. Although the actual tourist amount present waslower than the potential capacity (172,900person times) and practical capacity (342,400person times), the practical capacity was over the potential capacity, which made the MountEverest scenic spot in over-exploitation, and the bearing status of tourism facilities was17,3%. If it’s over50%in long term, the potential tourism environmental capacity of thisscenic spot may be in overdraft.(3) A plateau reaction early warning method was put forward in this thesis. Byanalyzing the relationship between AMS and personal factors, and relationship betweenAMS and physiological indexes, it found that the life signs, such as under blood pressure（diastolic blood pressure）, forehead temperature, oxygen concentration in blood, haddistinct correlativity with the latitude, so that such three indexes were chosen as the inputfactors of plateau reaction early warning model. Moreover, through calculation in fuzzy BPneural network, the quantitative relationship between the three life signs and plateaureaction, and a plateau reaction early warning model of “latitude-life signs-AMS” wasestablished. After spatialization of the simulation results received from the early warningmodel, the spatial distribution of plateau reaction in the study area. The results indicated: inthe Mount Everest scenic spot, the high incidence areas of plateau reaction were the col ofJiawula Mountain and the road from Zhufeng Bridge to Zhufeng base camp; the lowincidence areas were the lower region around the col and lower area near Zhufeng Bridge,the spatial pattern of which had high coupling with latitude(4) A concept of tourism safety risk detector was advanced, and its structure, functionand working principle were expatiated. The tourism safety risk detector had threesub-detectors. They are tourism environmental bearing ability detector, tourism passagesafety risk detector, plateau reaction risk detector, which are used to detect the tourismenvironmental overbearing risk, potential geological hazard and road points risk along thetourism passage, plateau reaction risk respectively which the tourists may encounter in theMount Everest scenic spot. According to the risk grades output from the risk detector oftourism environmental capacity, the early warning of tourism safety risk grades in MountEverest Scenic Spot were simulated in three situations (weak, saturated and over tourismenvironmetal capacity). The simulating results indicated: on the spatial distribution, onlywhen under weak capacity, the Mount Everest Scenic Spot has quite small safe regions,most of the whole area has general risks; when under saturated or over capacity, the areafrom Jilong collapse site to Zhufeng base camp is the highest risk area; when under saturated capacity, the whole area has no high risks, most regions has general risks, whileJiawula Col, Wolong Village, Puna Village, regions near Jilong collapse site and ZhufengBridge has middium risks; when under over capacity, the whole area has over middiumrisks, only some quite small regions has genreal risks. The tourism safety risk increasesgradually when the environmental capacity of Mount Everest Scenic Spot from weakcapacity, to saturated capacity, to over capacity.(5) This thesis putted forward software simulating environment of tourism safety earlywarning in Tibet, and through simulation, it realized the work flow of tourism safety earlywarning in area of high altitude, and verified the related methods and practical effect of themodel. With VB.NET10+ArcGIS Server API For Silverlight v2.3technology, accordingto the timely positions of tourists, the system used three risk detectors to evaluate thetourists’ tourism safety early warning grades, and carried out situation simulation inWebGIS software, and finally displayed the dynamic interaction process of tourismenvironmental capacity risk detection, tourism passage safety risk detection and altitudereaction risk detection.更多还原