【作者】 白忠菊；

【导师】 杨庆媛；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 土地资源学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 城市用地空间扩张已成为我国土地利用的主要特征之一,其扩张的速度和方位不仅关乎城镇化发展的水平和质量,而且对区域性的土地供应市场和房地产市场有重要影响。2001-2010年,全国建成区面积由24026.63km2增加至178691.70km2,10年间扩大了近7.5倍,常住人口城镇化率由2001年的37.66%提升到2010年的49.95%,上涨了32.63个百分点,可见,我国土地扩张的速度远大于人口城镇化速度,这在一定程度上反映了我国人口城镇化发展尚存低密度和分散化的倾向,这其中有地方政府“政绩化”发展的因素,也有城市规划“大而全”的因素,而最直观的反映是土地供应数量的逐年递增。为此,《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》明确指出要合理确定城市的开发边界,制定科学的土地供应计划,研究土地供应中长期规划,防止特大城市面积过度扩张。在城市快速扩张的同时,我国房地产价格呈现持续上涨和不确定性波动的状态,并成为社会各界关注的焦点,特别是2002年《招标拍卖挂牌出让国有土地使用权规定》出台之后,关于房地产价格影响因素和市场调控政策的争论更趋激烈,其中,土地供应对房地产市场价格有重要影响的论断得到各方的认可。从国内学者的研究成果来看,针对土地供应对房价影响或二者相互关系的研究数量较多,但研究内容主要从土地供应数量入手,对供应政策、供应结构、方式和区位因素考虑不足、不够系统,研究方法多以定性分析为主,定量研究方法较少,且主要集中在房价与地价相互关系的研究领域,但由于研究数据、研究区域和研究时限的不一致,导致研究结论尚不统一。另外,土地供应与房价方面的研究基础多以宏观数据为主,虽在一定程度上反映了全国的基本面,但由于房地产市场具有严格的区域性特质,宏观层面的研究数据一方面掩盖了房地产市场的区位因素,另一方面造成了政府和企业决策的缺乏。鉴于此,本研究以城市快速扩张为大背景,将雨地供应和房地产价格作为研究基础,以重庆市主城区为实证,系统分析城市扩张与土地供应数量、供应结构、供应区位、供应价格或级别的相互关系,并在此基础上深入分析土地供应政策、供应数量、供应结构和供应方式对房地产价格的影响机理和作用特征。为体现土地供应对房价影响的空间差异,本文从中观尺度入手,以重庆空间战略区划——“一圈两翼”为研究对象,系统地比较“一圈”和“两翼”地区土地供应数量、供应结构和供应方式对房价影响的异质性,以期为运用土地供应政策进行房地产市场的调控,为政府、企业(开发商)和消费者的决策提供参考。在理论研究方面,本文从城市扩张与土地供应的协同机制、土地供应对房价的作用机制和土地供应对房价的影响机制三方面剖析城市扩张背景下土地供应对房价的影响机制和作用机理。其中,前两部分的研究主要以规范分析为主,通过构建作用机制框架分析作用渠道和运行机理；在土地供应对房价的影响机制方面,笔者通过供需模型、四象限模型、税负归宿理论、边际效用理论和市场划分理论等经济学手段和理论,推导出7项预期结论：(1)在高房价的背景下,政府增加土地“有效”供应,理论上可以缓解市场的供需矛盾。(2)房价的变动与土地供应的弹性、周期的长短、区域土地资源可供给潜力等密不可分,长期的土地供应量不足会导致房价的持续上涨。(3)在房地产需求旺盛的情况下,容积率的增加会引起房价的上升,房价的走高会带动相应地价的抬升,进而引起土地市场投资预期的看涨,最终导致土地供应数量的进一步提升,容积率下降将产生一系列相反的影响。(4)土地供应方式对应的需求曲线缺乏弹性的地区,地价上涨溢价中的大部分被转移至开发商,其会提升房价维护预期利润,最终导致房价升高：土地供应方式对应的需求曲线富有弹性的地区,地价上涨中的大部分被转移至消费者,但预期利润的保障将引导开发商降低房价。“招拍挂”等土地供应方式本身不是引发房价上涨的原因,地方政府或开发商在高房价时期的惜售或储备等行为将推高房价。(5)土地供应方式变革可能会抬高地价,在市场上形成一种未来房价要上涨的预期,预期会促使现有地价的上升,地价的上升又会引起未来房价上涨的信号,从而引起新一轮的房价上涨,最终形成复杂的、双向的、长效的作用机制。(6)“招拍挂”对房地产和土地供应市场的影响有两方面：一是地价引起房价上涨并使其回归理性价格水平(社会平均价格水平)：二是使地价对房价的影响降低。(7)保障性住房供应量的增加不一定会将土地供应和房地产市场进行明确的划分,其对商品住房价格的影响呈现三种效应：抑制效应、抬升效应和不确定性效应。明确土地供应和住房需求市场,以量化的指标对两类市场进行严格的划分,可达到“增加保障房,平抑高房价”的目的。在实证分析方面,本文的基本逻辑是：城市扩张与土地供应的相互关系→土地供应政策对房价及其波动的影响→土地供应数量、结构、方式和区位对房价及其波动的影响→土地供应价格与房价的因果关系。具体而言,(1)城市扩张与土地供应的相互关系阐述,主要从城市扩张的趋势与特征、城市扩张对土地供应的历史影响、重庆主城区“二环时代”城市扩张对供应的趋势影响以及城市扩张对土地级别和基准地价的影响四方面系统阐述了重庆市城市快速扩张与土地供应的相互关系。(2)土地供应政策对房价及其波动的影响分析,在对土地供应调控房价的政策进行梳理的基础上,通过构建1998年1季度至2011年4季度全国层面的房价小波分析模型和VAR模型,从房价的演变趋势、房价的波动周期和外力作用的时滞性三方面系统地阐述了土地供应政策对房价影响的影响。(3)土地供应数量、结构、方式和区位对房价的影响研究。本文以2003-2010年重庆主城九区各类建设用地供应和房地产市场价格为基础数据,通过构建房地产市场的存量—流量模型、边际效用模型、虚拟变量模型分析了重庆市土地供应的各方面对房价的影响特征,另外,通过构建多元线性回归模型,分析了不同区域土地供应对房价影响的空间差异。(4)土地供应价格与房价的因果关系分析。从供需角度和市场综合角度对房价与地价的相互关系进行理论分析,进而应用2001年第1季度至2010年第4季度重庆市主城区的土地交易价格指数和住宅销售价格指数,借助Granger因果关系检验模型分析房价与地价的因果关系。通过上述分析,本文得出以下研究结论：(1)城市快速扩张过程中,由于扩张的方式、速度和趋势存在差异,土地供应数量、结构、区位和等级等也存在空间差异,这为土地供应对房地产市场的影响提供了区域性的大环境。(2)土地供应短期内供给无弹性和长期内供应量不足是引起高房价的重要原因,但就国内目前的宏观情况来看,土地和房地产市场需求仍然较为旺盛,试图通过增加土地供应来降低房价的做法不现实,所以有必要从供应方式变革和市场结构重划的角度来调控房价。(3)土地供应政策会在整体上对房价产生显著影响,进而改变房价的变动趋势、波动周期和时滞性。(4)土地供应对房价的影响较为复杂,土地供应的数量、结构、方式均会对房价及其波动产生不同程度的影响。(5)土地供应从总量、结构和方式等多方面影响房价,且影响机理和特征会因区域的经济发展水平、市场发育及完善程度不同而表现不一。(6)容积率是地价变动的正向“晴雨表”,且二者在处于较低水平下的关联性较强。(7)房价和地价的关系呈现动态波动特征。通过上述理论探索和实证研究,本文的创新有如下方面：(1)本文在城市快速扩张的大背景下,系统地研究了土地供应对房价及其波动的影响,这是该领域研究一次有意义的尝试。(2)从理论和实证对城市扩张的进程、特征及趋势分析进行了分析,并在此基础上归纳出城市扩张过程中土地供应的规模、布局、结构以及土地级别和价格对房价产生的影响,这是对地区性城市扩张过程中土地供应特点的宏观把握,为更清晰地研究土地供应对房价的影响提供了良好的基底,丰富了现有土地供应对房价影响的研究成果,也为研究的深入开展提供了方向。(3)本文运用针对性的研究方法系统地阐述了城市扩张与土地供应的关系,土地供应的数量、结构、方式、区位对地价及其波动的影响以及房价与地价的相互关系。运用土地供应速度、强度和趋势度等土地演变空间形态(景观格局)模型分析城市扩张与土地供应相互关系；运用“存量—流量”模型分析土地供应数量对房价及其波动的影响；应用区县的面板数据分析土地供应对房价及其波动影响的空间差异。(4)房地产市场具有很强的区域性特征,本文以重庆市主城区为实证,研究城市快速扩张中土地供应对房价的影响,一方面揭示了城市扩张对土地供应的影响,揭示了土地供应数量、容积率、供应结构、供应区位、供应方式、供应价格对房价的作用机理和影响特征,另一方面更清晰地认识地区性房地产市场,并为其健康有序运行以及房价的平稳回落提供了土地供应方面的调控举措。由于受限于人力和TM影像的获取时限,本文仅对1995年、2000年和2008年3年主城区的建设用地进行了人工解译,且建设用地细分为居住用地、公共服务用地和工业仓储用地主要依靠实际经验和人工判读,研究可能出现分析数据的偏差。另外,本文以实证分析为主体,侧重于文章实践意义的体现,对于理论分析和经验分析尚显薄弱。今后可以从研究数据的丰裕度、计量模型构建的合理性和土地供应对房价影响的理论研究方面进行深化。更多还原

【Abstract】 The expansion of city land space has become one of the main characteristics of land use in China, its expanding speed and range is not only related to the level and quality of the development of urbanization, but also have an important influence on the regional supply of land market and real estate market. From2001to2010, the built-up area increased from24026.63km2to178691.70km’, which expanded by nearly7.5times during the10years. The resident population urbanization rate rose from37.66%in2001to49.95%in2010, which went up32.63%. It is clear that the expansion of land in China is far greater than the population urbanization rate, which reflects the tendency of low density and decentralization of population urbanization in China. This sign is caused by the local governments’"achievements" of the development and the "big and complete" city planning and the most directly perceived reflection is the increasing number of yearly land supply. Therefore,"The Outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China" clearly pointed out that we should rationally determine the boundary city development, to develop the land supply plan of scientific research, land supply and long-term planning, to prevent excessive outspread of megalopolis. With the rapid expansion of the city, China’s real estate prices continue rising and uncertain, and become the focus of attention of the society, especially after "tender auction listing transferring state-owned land use rights provision" promulgated in2002, the debate about factors affecting the price of real estate and market regulation policy become more intense. Among them, the judgment that the supply of land has an important impact on the real estate market prices is recognized by the public. From the domestic scholar’s research results, due to the larger number of researches on land supply’s impact on housing prices or the relationship between the two sides, the research contents are mainly from the land supply, not considering enough and systematically of the supply policy, supply structure, style and location, and the research methods are mainly qualitative analysis, few quantitative research method, and mainly concentrated in the research field of mutual relationship between housing price and land price, and because of the inconsistency of data, research area and time, the research conclusion is still inconsistent. In addition, the land supply and housing prices are mainly based on the macro data. Although to some extent it reflects the basic aspect, the real estate market has strict regional characteristics, and research data in macro level conceals location factors of the real estate market, resulting in a lack of decision-making of government and the enterprise. In view of this, this study bases on the background of the rapid expansion of city and on the research foundation of the land supply and real estate price. Taking takes the urban area of Chongqing city as an example, it analyzes relationship among city expansion, land supply, supply structure, the supply of location, supply price or level and then systematically analyzes influence mechanism and price characteristics on real estate prices from the land supply policy, supply number, supply structure and supply methods. In order to reflect the housing space difference of the influence of land supply, this paper starts from the middle view measure and spatial strategy regionalization in Chongqing "one circle and two wings" as the research object, systematically compare heterogeneity of affects on housing prices from number of land supply, supply structure and the supply methods in "one circle and two wings" area to control real estate market supply of land use policy, providing reference for the government, enterprises (developers) to provide and consumers. In the aspect of theory research, three aspects of influence mechanism of synergy mechanism, the supply of land from the city expansion and land supply mechanism and the supply of land prices on the prices of analyzing the mechanism of effect of land supply mechanism and the effect on prices under the background of city expansion. Among them, the first two parts of the study mainly in the normative analysis, by the analysis of channel function and operation mechanism framework; in effect mechanism on the prices of land supply, the supply and demand model, the four quadrant model, tax incidence theory, marginal utility theory and the market division theory and other economics methods and theory, the expected conclusion is derived:1) in the context of high prices, the government to increase land supply," effective " theory can alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of market.2) Changes and land supply elasticity, cycle length, prices of regional land resource supply potential can be inseparable, rising long-term land supply shortage will lead to price.3) In real estate demand situation, to increase the volume of rising house prices will raise, the high prices will drive the corresponding price rise, causing investment in land market is expected to rise, eventually lead to further improve the land supply, the volume rate will produce a series of the opposite effect.4) the demand curve corresponding to the supply of land in the inelastic region, land prices in the premium most were transferred to developers, it will raise prices to maintain profit expectations, leading to price increases; the demand curve corresponding to the supply of land in the elastic region, land prices in the most were transferred to the consumer, but the expected profit security will guide developers to reduce prices." Dr. shoot up " the supply of land is not the cause of rising prices, the local government or developers will push up prices in the high price period, sell or reserve act.5) Change the way of land supply will increase land prices, the formation of a future prices to rise is expected in the market, the rise is expected to make existing premium, the premium increases will lead to signal future price increases, resulting in a new round of price increases, eventually forming a complex, bidirectional, long-acting mechanism of action.6)" two shoot up" the impact of real estate and land supply market:one is the land prices caused prices to rise and the return to rational prices——the average price level of social——two is to reduce the impact on the land price.7) Increase the affordable housing supply will not be the supply of land and real estate market clear division, its impact on the commercial housing price has three effects:inhibition effect, uplift effect and the uncertainty effect. Clear the land supply and housing demand in the market, strict division of the two types of market was performed to quantify the indexes, can achieve the purpose of "increase the low-income housing, stabilize the high prices"In the empirical analysis, the basic logic of this article is:city expansion and land supply relationship, land supply policy impact on housing prices and volatility, land supply, structure, mode and location on the price and its fluctuation, the supply of land prices and housing prices causality. Specifically,1) the relationship between city expansion and land supply, mainly from the city expansion trend and characteristics of city expansion, the supply of land for the historical influence, Chongqing city " second time" city expansion of supply and city expansion trend of land grade and standard land price system in four aspects elaborates influence the city of Chongqing city the rapid expansion and land supply relationship.2) analysis of the impact of land supply policy on house price and its volatility, on the foundation of combing the regulation and control of land supply policy on house prices, by building the analysis model and VAR model1quarter to the4quarter of2011the level of house prices in1998from the wavelet, the evolution trend of prices, price fluctuation cycle and the delay of external force three aspects elaborated systematically the impact of land supply policy on housing prices.3) The number of land supply, structure, mode and location of the impact on prices of. In this paper, taking the year2003-2010Chongqing nine districts of various types of construction land supply and real estate market prices for basic data, through the construction of the real estate market and the stock and flow model, the marginal utility model, dummy variable model analysis of the parties the supply of land in Chongqing city house prices impact characteristics, in addition, based on the multiple linear regression model, analysis of the influences of different regional land supply for housing space.4) Causality analysis of the supply of land prices and housing prices. The theoretical analysis of relationship from the perspective of demand and supply and market comprehensive perspective on housing price and land price, then the application of the first quarter of2001to the fourth quarter of2010in the urban area of Chongqing city land price index and housing sales price index, the causal relationship with Granger causality test model analysis of housing price and land price.Through the above analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions:1) the process of rapid expansion of city, there were differences due to expansion way, speed and trend, land supply, structure, location and level also exists spatial difference, this provides the regional environment as the supply of land to the real estate market.2) the supply of land supply in the short run without elasticity and long-term supply shortage is an important cause of the high prices, but the current domestic macroeconomic situation, land and real estate market demand remains relatively strong, trying to increase the supply of land to reduce the prices are not the reality, so it is necessary to control prices change from supply and market structure readjustment angle.3) the supply of land policy on the whole have a significant impact on prices, and then change the trend, the price fluctuations cycle and time delay.4) the supply of land on the impact of house prices is relatively complex, the quantity, the structure of land supply, the way will produce different effects on prices and volatility.5) The supply of land from the total amount, structure and methods and other aspects affect the price, and the influence mechanism and characteristics because of the level of economic development, market development and perfection in different regions and different.6) the volume rate is positive "barometer" of the price changes, and the two in the lower level of the strong correlation.7) The relationship between house price and land price dynamic features.Through the theoretical exploration and empirical study, the innovation of this paper are as follows:1) based on the background of the rapid expansion of the city, this paper has systematically studied the effect on prices and their fluctuation from land supply, which is a meaningful attempt to this field.2) This paper has analyzed the process, characteristics and trends of city expansion then concluded the impact on housing prices from scale, layout, structure of land supply and level and price of land in the process of land expansion. This is the macro control of supply characteristics of land area in the process of the city expansion, which provides a good base for the clearer study on the impact on housing prices from land supply enriches the above research and also provides a direction for deeper research.3) This paper systematically does a research methods of the system explained the relationship between city expansion and land supply, land supply quantity, structure, style, location of land price and its volatility and the relationship between housing price and land price. Use evolution (landscape) model of land supply in speed, strength and trend of land space to analyze the relationship between city expansion and land supply; use the Stock-Flow model to analyze the effects of land supply for housing and its volatility; spatial difference analysis based on panel data of district land supply for housing and its fluctuation.4) The real estate market has strong regional characteristics. As the empirical research to the urban area of Chongqing City, the paper does researches on the impact on prices from land supply in rapid expansion of city, reveals the influence of city expansion of land supply on one hand and reveals the impact on housing prices from the number, structure, volume, location, mode, price of land supply, on the other hand, it has a clear understanding of the real estate market area, and provides the control measures of land supply for its healthy and orderly operation and house prices.Due to the time limit for human resources and TM images, this paper only has the manual interpretation for the lands for construction in the main urban areas in1995,2000and2008,.and the conclusion that construction land divide into residential land, public services and industrial storage sites relies mainly on experience and manual reading, therefore, there possibly are some analytic data deviations. In addition, based mainly on the empirical analysis, this paper focuses on the practical significance, so the analysis of the theory and the experience is still weak. It would better deepen the study in abundant research data, reasonable econometric model and theory research on the impact on housing prices from land supply.更多还原