【作者】 黄先智；

【导师】 向仲怀；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 特种经济动物饲养， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 传统产业普遍面临着衰退的问题。传统产业的衰退是经济发展过程中存在的普遍现象,是社会发展过程中产业有序更替的必然结果,符合产业从产生、发展、成熟、衰退的周期性变化的客观规律。蚕桑产业是我国最为悠久的传统产业,我国目前生丝产量占世界产量的82%,在世界市场上居于绝对优势地位。但是,随着我国经济的高速发展和消费市场结构的快速变化,在技术、市场、产业组织等方面己经相当成熟的蚕桑产业,面临着产业生产规模和产品市场无法有效扩大,产品附加值难以提升,产业收益率相对下降,生产要素流出本行业等诸多问题,具有相对衰退产业的典型特征,面临着较大的产业转型压力。蚕桑产业长期以来受到政府的管制和计划经济的影响,产业内部思想僵化,技术体系相对封闭。同时,由于蚕桑产业的产业链区域布局不平衡,政府对这一产业重视程度不够,实现蚕桑产业的转型,重新构建其产业链条,又是极其复杂的问题。探讨蚕桑产业转型的技术路径,实现传统蚕桑产业的可持续发展,具有弘扬中华文明的重要战略意义和深远的历史意义,是非常有意义的研究课题。研究蚕桑产业面临的问题,还可以为其他进入相对衰退期的传统农业产业的转型提供借鉴；我国关于现代蚕桑产业的转型问题多是基于技术层面的,关于从产业层面上探讨蚕桑产业转型的方向、发展路径,国内外相关研究还不多见。本论文研究传统蚕桑产业如何适应我国社会经济发展的需求,实现产业转型,保持产业可持续发展的问题,具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。一、研究方法和研究内容本论文以产业结构理论、产业生命周期理论、可持续发展理论、技术创新理论为基础,利用多学科融合分析方法、定量与定性分析相结合等方法,对我国蚕桑产业转型的理论基础、转型的预期效果评价、转型后的科技研究方向等关键问题进行了研究,主要内容如下：(1)论文通过考察世界蚕桑产业中心的变迁历史,研究蚕桑产业社会经济功能的演化,分析影响蚕桑产业兴衰的因素；研究在经济高速发展时期,我国蚕桑产业在发展模式与技术特征、产品结构和消费市场特征等方面的变化趋势,分析我国蚕桑产业在生产、市场、技术、产业社会经济功能方面存在的困难,探讨我国蚕桑产业转型的内在动力和外在压力问题。(2)论文将研究日本在蚕桑产业衰退期振兴蚕桑产业的技术路径,蚕丝纤维的特性及其消费市场特征,并在此基础上分析我国多元化蚕桑产业的发展市场空间、区域空间,结合国家发展重大需求和蚕桑产业自身的资源和产业技术特点,运用可持续发展理论,对我国蚕桑产业转型的最有利方向进行比较、选择,并探讨蚕桑产业转型的路径以及发展模式等问题。(3)运用生态学研究方法,比较我国蚕桑产业转型中形成的多元化蚕桑产业的预期经济效益和生态效益,评价蚕桑产业转型后的生态经济效果；根据蚕桑产业转型后科技创新目标的变化,提出我国蚕桑产业转型后的科技发展方向和研究重点问题。二、主要结论本论文形成的主要结论如下：(1)世界蚕桑产业中心迁移的历史表明,世界蚕桑产业的中心是动态变化的,并受需求、科技和效益三个主要因素的影响,市场和社会需求是蚕桑产业存在和发展的基础,科技进步是蚕桑产业发展的内在动力,而比较效益是影响产业发展规模的关键因素。(2)当前我国蚕桑产业存在消费市场无法有效扩大、比较效益下降、科技发展迟滞,产业社会经济功能弱化的严重问题,产业已进入相对衰退期,迫切需要转型。(3)日本在20世纪后叶蚕桑产业进入衰退期时从提高蚕桑生产效率,拓展蚕丝纤维的新用途二个方面来振兴蚕桑产业,但收效甚微。本论文研究证明蚕丝作为纤维产业的小品种,由于化学纤维的激烈竞争,其消费市场的增长空间有限,增长速度缓慢,依靠增加蚕丝纤维的消费量这一路径很难保持我国蚕桑产业的持续增长。(4)由于我国蚕桑产业的社会经济功能的弱化,蚕桑产业转型后必须寻找到适应当前社会经济发展的新功能。而以多元化产品为核心的多元化蚕桑产业,在市场发展空间、区域发展空间方面都优于传统蚕桑产业,符合国家生态文明建设的重大需求,而且能最大限度地利用产业内部现有的生产要素,是我国蚕桑产业转型的最有利方向。(5)我国转型后的多元化蚕桑产业的社会经济功能定位为：在生态治理基础上的兼顾生态效益和经济效益的新型产业。发展路径为：发挥桑树在生态治理方面的优势,将桑树作为干旱、盐碱、沙漢、荒漢等脆弱生态、长江上游流域生态防护林树种,融入国家生态治理工程建设中去,建立多元化蚕桑产业系统工程；以饲料桑、果桑、桑叶食品、生态旅游为主导重构产业链,融入大农业、食品加工等大产业。发展模式包括现代蚕桑产业发展模式,桑-畜复合生态模式,桑-农复合生态模式,生态治理模式等。在发展次序上,应以生态桑作为突破口。(6)多元化蚕桑产业在桑园光能利用率、桑树干物质转化率、经济效益方面都优于传统蚕桑产业。传统蚕桑产业桑园利用光能约为2.5%,通过发展桑园间作套种,可将光能利用率提高到3.2%。传统蚕桑产业从桑园产物到蚕茧的物质转化率约为15.5%,通过桑枝、蚕沙、剩余桑叶的利用,可以将桑园的生物转化率提高到34.66%,提高幅度达到123.61%；桑园初级产物的价值提高182.22%。(7)桑树具有涵养水源、保持土壤、防风固沙、净化空气、治理土壤重金属污染等外延性生态功能。参照阔叶林生态价值的计算方法,估算出丰产期桑园土壤保护价值为1516.39元/hm2.a，涵养水源的价值为341.97元/hm2.a,空气废物处理价值1771.89元/hm2.a,固碳减排价值为18528元/hm2.a,据此不完全的估算,桑园的外延式生态总价值34413.94元/hm2.a,其中最高是固碳减排的价值,约其估算生态价值的90%。单位桑园的生态价值高于我国传统蚕桑产业生产提供的蚕茧的平均产值。(8)蚕桑产业转型后,其发展方向、路径,涉及的领域都与传统的蚕桑产业存在较大的差异,多元化蚕桑产业的科学研究方向和重点也需要进行调整。三、本论文的创新点本论文的创新点有三点：(1)系统地分析了我国蚕桑产业发展的历史、现状和存在的问题,在国内外率先从世界蚕业中心迁移与产业社会经济功能强弱转换的视角,审视我国蚕桑产业的兴衰,提出了我国蚕桑产业已进入相对衰退期,迫切需要转型的问题。(2)通过分析日本蚕业振兴的技术路径和蚕丝纤维消费市场特征,论证了从拓展蚕丝纤维用途的产业转型路径很难保持蚕桑产业的发展与国家经济的同步增长。尽管蚕丝技术短期突破性进步难、蚕丝纤维消费市场萎缩、农村劳动力短缺、养蚕比较效益下降,但蚕桑资源的多元化开发利用潜力巨大,并且桑树具有耐旱、耐盐碱、耐瘠薄、抗病虫害能力强等特性,在生态治理方面的潜在优势突出,而且能最大限度地利用产业内部现有的生产要素。有鉴于此,本文提出我国蚕桑产业转向的最有利方向是,由以蚕丝生产为核心的蚕桑产业转向以发挥桑树生态治理优势为中心的多元化蚕桑产业,突破了依靠技术进步扩大蚕丝消费量,维持蚕桑产业发展这一传统思维的约束,是我国蚕桑产业发展方向的根本改变。(3)本文运用系统原理分析了多元化蚕桑产业的生产过程及行成机理,指出其发展路径是融入国家生态治理工程,发挥桑树生态治理优势；以饲料桑、果桑、桑叶食品、生态旅游为主导重构产业链,融入大农业、食品加工等大产业；结合地区社会经济特点,可以采取现代蚕业、桑-农复合、桑-畜复合、生态治理等多种发展模式,进而用生态学方法对多元化蚕桑产业预期的生态和经济效益进行评价,提出了多元化蚕桑产业的科学研究方向和重点。这为未来我国蚕桑产业的转型提供了较系统的理论和技术支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Traditional industries are facing the trend of decline which is common over the development of economy and is the inevitable result of industrial improvement in the development of society. It accords with periodic objective laws of industries from terms of production, development, maturity to decline.Sericulture has a long history in China. The silk production of China, accounting for82%of the world’s output, is highly competitive in the world market. With the development of economy and the change of consumer market, though sericulture is flourishing in terms of techniques, market and industrial organization etc, there are several problems, for instance, the limit of industrial scale and market, the quality of additional value of product, the decline of profitability and the loss of factors of production etc. Therefore, it is in face of the pressure of industrial transformation. Researching on the problems of traditional sericulture gives a lesson to the transformation of other traditional agriculture and industries that face the problem of decline. It is strategically important and historically significant to discuss the way sericulture transforms.Because of the supervision of government and the influence of planned economy, the operational principle of sericulture is rigid and the techniques are not advanced enough. Meanwhile, the area layout is imbalance and government pay little attention to the development of sericulture. Therefore, it is complicated to reconstruct industrial chains and have sericulture transformation.At the moment, the researches of modern sericulture transformation and mulberry ecology in China are based on technical level, rather than industrial level in which not so many researches from home and abroad discuss the development direction and ways of sericulture. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to research the way traditional sericulture accommodates the requirements of China’s social and economic development, transform industries and maintain sustainable development.I Methods And Contents of the Research This thesis, based on industry-structure theory, industrial life cycle theory, sustainable development theory and technological innovation, makes use of multi-disciplinary analysis and analysis of quantity and quality. It focuses on the theoretical basis of sericulture industrial transformation, the estimate of expected effects and research area after transformation.1. Through examining the history of world sericulture, this thesis analyzes the evolution of social and economic function of sericulture and the factors of vicissitude of sericulture. And it researches on, during the rapid economic development, the tendency of China’s sericulture in terms of industrial development mode, technological features, product structure and market etc. It also discusses the problems of sericulture in production, market, techniques, economic function etc and the internal motivation and outside pressure of China sericulture transformation.2. This thesis analyzes the technology of Japan’s sericulture over its recession, the characteristics of silk fibers and its market. It discusses the market and development of China’s diversified sericulture. Combing with huge requirements of China’s development and its own features of resource and technology, this thesis, applying sustainable development, focuses on the comparison, and selection of China’s sericulture transformation and the discussion that the way it transforms.3. Utilizing ecology research methods, this thesis compares the expected profitability of China’s sericulture transformation with that of ecological condition, evaluates the economic condition after transformation and, in accordance with the change of innovation objectives after transformation, comes up with research direction and key issues.Ⅱ Conclusions And InnovationsConclusions1. The history of the shift of the center of world sericulture shows that world sericulture center is dynamically changed and is influenced by3major factors which are demand, technology and benefit. The basis of development of sericulture is market and social demand. Technological improvement is the internal motivation of sericulture. Comparative benefit is the key to industrial scale.2. Currently, the problems of China’s sericulture are the limit of consumer market, the decline of comparative benefit, the delaying of technological development and the weakening of social and economic functions etc. Thus, sericulture steps into recession and is dying to have industrial transformation.3. What Japan did in the industrial recession to develop sericulture is to improve productivity and expand functions of fiber. However, it appeared to have little effect. This thesis proves that silk, as the small breed of fiber industry, has some weakness such as the limit of growth and the slowness of growth rate. Thus, the sustainable development of China’s sericulture is not on the basis of increasing fiber consumption.4. Because of the weakening of social and economic functions of China’s sericulture, finding out what suits social and economic development is the priority after transformation. Diversified sericulture, with mulberry at the core, is way better than traditional sericulture in terms of development of market and region. Mostly, it meets the need of ecological construction and is best for China’s sericulture transformation.5. China’s diversified sericulture after transformation is the new industry that focuses on both ecological and economic benefit on the basis of ecological management. The way it develops is to bring mulberries ecological advantages in to play. It is of importance to plant mulberries as protection forest in upper reaches of Yangtze River and especially in certain ecologically fragile areas like arid area, alkaline soil and desert. Its development patterns are modern sericulture pattern, mulberry-livestock complex ecological pattern, agro-mulberry ecosystem and ecological management pattern.6. Speaking of LUE, conversion rate of dry matters and profitability, diversified sericulture is better than traditional sericulture. The LUE of traditional mulberry field is2.5%. Through developing intercropping of mulberry field, LUE can be raised to3.2%. The conversion rate of matters from what is produced in mulberry field to cocoon is around15.5%. The conversion rate can be raised to34.66%, increasing by123.61%. The value of primary product in mulberry field is increased by182.22%.7. Mulberries featured in water conservation, soil conservation, wind sheltering and sand fixation, air purifying and dealing with soil heavy metal pollution. According to statistics of broad-leaved forest, it estimates that conservation of mulberry field soil in bumper period is worth1516.39yuan/hm2·a. Conserving water is worth341.97yuan/hm2·a; air wastes disposal,1771.89yuan/hm2·a; carbon sequestration,18528yuan/hm2·a. It is estimates that the total ecological mulberry field is worth34413.94yuan/hm2·a, among which the highest is the value of carbon sequestration which accounts for90%of estimated ecological cost. The ecological value of mulberry field is higher than that of traditional sericulture.8. After transformation, the way sericulture develops and areas it researches in are different from that of traditional sericulture. Diversified sericulture, thus, should adjust its research direction.Ⅲ Innovations1. This thesis systematically analyzes the history, status quo and problems of China’s sericulture. In terms of the shift of world sericulture center, this thesis focuses on the vicissitude of sericulture, which is new in China’s sericulture researches. And it finds out that China’s sericulture steps into recession and is dying to have industrial transformation.2. Through analyzing the way Japan sericulture flourishes and the market features of silk consumption, this thesis proves that it is hard to maintain the development of sericulture keeping pace with China’s economic increase from the perspective of expanding industrial transformation of silk usages. There are several difficulties such as no breakthroughs in a short time, the sluggish consumer market, the shortage of farm labor, the decline of comparative benefit of silkworm breeding, but diversified development and utilization of mulberries have huge potential. And mulberries are drought-enduring, alkali-resisting, barren-resisting pest-resisting. Given the advantages of mulberries, this thesis indicates that the best way for China’s sericulture transformation is to transform from the core of silk production to diversified sericulture featured in ecological functions of mulberries, which is a breakthrough of traditional approaches.3. Based on ecosystem fundamentals, this thesis analyzes producing process and mechanism of diversified sericulture. It points out that the way it develops is making full use of advantages of mulberries and is what national ecological project entails. All that matters is to reconstruct industrial chains with feed mulberry, mulberry, mulberry food and ecological tourism. It could apply different development patterns such as modern sericulture, mulberry-livestock complex ecological pattern, agro-mulberry ecosystem and ecological management pattern. It, with ecological approaches, estimates the ecological and economic benefit of diversified sericulture, shows the research direction and focus of diversified sericulture and provides the industrial transformation of China’s diversified sericulture with strong theoretical and technical support.更多还原