【作者】 Ali Gohar；

【导师】 倪志伟；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 在企业发展的历史长河中,发生了很多的企业欺诈和丑闻事件,甚至到了危及全球经济的程度。这种情况的发生促使资本市场发展出了各种机制来控制企业,以使所有利益相关者的利益都能够最大化。这些机制归属于公司治理的范畴。公司治理的基本出发点就是增强薄弱的治理实践,在公司内部实施问责的制度和文化。由于上市公司公开发布的信息对资本市场的运转有着极其重要的作用,所以只有保证信息的质量和透明度,资本市场才能够健康的运转。只有基于完全透明但不损害公司竞争优势的信息,数据的使用者才能够赋予报告公司股权一定的价值。这些价值是由与公司有关的所有因素决定的,这些因素包括财务状况、资本结构、经营业绩、前景以及符合其运作市场的社会和法律规范。对大多数新兴的资本市场而言,大多数情况下,它的所有权都集中在管理者、银行以及其他金融机构和(或者)家族企业的某个家庭手中。这种结构在多数情况下对保护小投资者是不利的。为了保证市场的公平性,维护市场的可持续增长和发展,需要让小投资者了解到关于公司的有效和可靠的信息。这样才能保证他们的经济决策是建立在事实和数据而不是猜测的基础上。过去的十年间,巴基斯坦资本市场获得了巨大发展,在国内外市场上都饱受瞩目。但是,正如其他新兴市场一样,它也存在着公司财务欺诈、财务丑闻的状况,特别是经历了2008年的市场崩溃之后,更加突显出它的结构缺陷。市场缺陷对成百上千的小投资者造成了毁灭性的后果,使得他们失去了毕生积蓄。虽然对巴基斯坦资本市场进行细致研究是非常必要的,但目前关于这方面的研究甚少。本文试图通过细致分析巴基斯坦上市公司公开的财务信息,来决定其市场地位和质量。本文通过获取、分析巴基斯坦资本市场中业绩最佳股票的年度报表来判断公司报告的运营情况和市场价值间的关系。该分析有助于理解巴基斯坦现行的公司报告方式和公司治理方式。本文试图通过确定并建立公开财务信息与公司市场价值间的联系,以此证实公开信息的披露水平和透明度。此外,本文还通过分析年度财务报表来确定经通货膨胀调整的投资资本回报和上市公司的盈利能力的经济价值。为研究需要,所用数据取自2005至2010年度表现最佳的上市公司的公开年度报表。即样本来自巴基斯坦最大的股票交易市场——卡拉奇股票交易所的KSE100指数成分股,该指数涵盖了巴基斯坦超过90%的股票市值。本文共选用了前83家上市公司的年度报表进行分析。文章计算了体现不同基本面表现的财务比率指标,以满足分析模型的要求。通过以市场价值为因变量对资产周转率、负债率、每股收益、市盈率、资产收益率和流动比例等变量作回归,进而确定各类公开会计信息的重要程度。同时通过以样本公司公开的每股收益为因变量对它们各期的经济回报作回归分析来核实信息的质量。本文中的所有研究方法使用线性回归分析。研究结果表明,通过计算Tobin’s Q比率,发现巴基斯坦上市公司已公开的基本面运营业绩与市场价值的关联程度非常小。为了研究这些公司的经营业绩状况,本文使用了不同的度量指标,包括资产周转率、负债率、每股收益、市盈率、资产收益率和流动比例。这些指标均是通过上市公司已公开的年度报表提供的信息手动计算得到的。在所获取指标发生的时间段内,单独的公司绩效衡量,例如利润率、投资回报、金融资产组合、流动性等对公司市场价值并没有突出影响。在考察期内这些指标变化的协同性基本可以忽略,多数情况下与预期不一致。这个结论与现有文献的结论相反,文献认为公司经营效益与公司的股票市场价值具有非常显著的联系(伯纳德1994,布朗1968)。本研究认为,巴基斯坦市场依然缺乏好的公司治理机制,披露的信息不能够有效传导至公司的市场价值中。由于巴基斯坦资本市场中的公司公开的财务信息缺乏详尽度和透明度,效率低下,导致经营效益与公司市场价值之间的关联性很低,因此会误导投资人做出投资决策,。这种偏离市场规范的现象可能是由如下原因导致的,例如日益庞大的家族企业、国有企业以及脆弱的法律执行机制。还需要今后对此进一步研究和细致深入的分析。为了进一步研究和论证本文研究结果,以及检验公开财务信息的有效性,本文通过样本公司的年度报表中的每股收益(EPS)和相应的经济利润(Economic Margin "EM")等指标来分析其盈利能力。研究观测表明这两项指标不存在显著关联性,其中,经济利润值是公司运营和盈利能力的经济价值,反映了公司经过利率和通胀调整后的投资资本获取现金的能力。分析结果支持了本研究假设,即公司发布的财务运营信息并不能反映公司的实际运作状况,从而误导市场投资方向,使得投机力量盛行,从而导致投资者做出错误的投资决策。结果就是公司的经营效益无法在其市场价值中得到相应的体现。影响公司治理的因素还包括当地法律制度漏洞、法律执行力度、组织结构和程序、严重的贪污腐败、脆弱的经济基础设施、制约产业发展的能源短缺以及法律不力、社会秩序混乱导致的政治环境不稳定,这些都可能导致市场上投机行为盛行。因此需要更好的监管机制来确保上市公司信息披露的完整度和透明度,以此增强股票市场的有效性和运行效率,保障全体投资者的利益。更多还原

【Abstract】 The human society has witnessed a number of corporate frauds and scandals, even to extent of endangering the global economy, since the inception of corporations. This led the market to develop various mechanisms to control corporations and influence its management to work in the best interests of all stakeholders. Such mechanisms are herded under the umbrella of corporate governance. The simple idea behind corporate governance is to strengthen the weak governing practices and implement the system and culture of accountability within the firm.A well governed capital market cannot be imagined without the quality of disclosure and transparency in all publicly disclosed information by the listed companies because the information serves the same for the market as does the blood do for a living soul. It is only possible through complete disclosure of transparent information, without compromising the competitive advantage of the firm that the users of such data will be in a position to assign certain value to the equity of the reporting firm. Such value will be based on all factors relating to the firm including its financial position, capital structure, operating results, future prospects and compliance to the social and legal requirements of the market where it operates.Most of the emerging markets are characterized by concentrated ownership wherein in most of the cases the owners are management, banks and other financial institutions and/or single family in case of family-controlled business. Such set ups have led to weak protection for small investors in most of the cases. In order to ensure the fair play in the market and its sustainable growth&development; the small investors needs to be protected though dissemination of valid and reliable information about the participating firm in the capital market, so that their economic decisions are driven by facts and figure instead of speculations.During the last decade the Pakistani capital market observed enormous growth and was appreciated at both domestic and international forums. But just like any other developing market it also has structural deficiencies, which were witnessed in the form of numerous corporate financial frauds and scandals and also a huge market crash in the year2008. The results were devastating for thousands of small investors who lost their life savings because of the weaknesses of the market. Despite the utmost need for conducting comprehensive research studies on Pakistani capital market, very little has been done so far. This research has attempted to critically analyze the published accounting information of listed Pakistani corporations for determining its market significance and quality. The published data in the form of annual reports was taken and analyzed to determine the link between the reported performance and its associated market value for top performing stocks of Pakistani capital market. The analysis has helped in understanding the existing corporate reporting practices and corporate governance prevailing in Pakistan.This work was done with the intention to determine and establish the link between published accounting information and market value of the respective firm in order to authenticate the level of disclosure and transparency in such published information. Furthermore, the annual reports were also analyzed to determine the economic value of return against inflation-adjusted-invested-capital and reported profitability of the listed firms. To serve the purpose data was extracted from published annual reports, for the period of2005to2010, of top-performing listed firms, namely firms comprising the KSE-100Index, on Karachi Stock Exchange, Pakistan, being the biggest stock market in Pakistan representing more than90%of the market based on market capitalization. A total of top83listed firms were selected for this study and their published annual reports were analyzed. Different performance fundamentals in the form of financial ratios were calculated as per the requirement of our analytic models was calculated. To determine the significance of published accounting information the market value was regresses against assets turnover ratio, debt ratio, EPS, price earning ratio, return on assets and current ratio. To check for the quality of the information the reported EPS of the sample firms was regressed against their respective calculated economic return for the period under study. Both the works have utilized linear regression principles for analysis.The results of this work concluded that the reported performance fundamentals carry a very weak relationship with the market value, measured through Tobin’s Q ratio, of listed firms in Pakistan. To study the performance of these firms, different financial ratios including assets turnover ratio, debt ratio, EPS, price earning ratio, return on assets and current ratio were manually calculated from the published information provided in the annual reports of these firms. For the period under study, individual performance measures like profitability, return, financing portfolio and liquidity all have no prominent effect on the market valuation of these firms measured and the movement of these ratios over the period under consideration has negligible similarity in few cases while mostly defying expectations. This result was in contrast to the available literature where individual performance measures are found significantly related to market value of the firm (Bernard1994, Brown1968). It was concluded that Pakistani market still lacks the existence of strong corporate governance system where reported information are not effectively translated into market value of the firm. Thus the published public accounting information of Pakistani firms is lacking thorough disclosure and transparency and inefficiency in the capital market because such weak association between performance and market value of the listed firm can mislead the investors at the time of making investment decisions. Such a deviation from market norms might be be attributed to reasons including increased number of group or family-owned business, state owned enterprises and weak law enforcement system existing in Pakistan, which needs further research and more detailed study and analysis.To further explore and authenticate our results and to check for the validity of the reported accounting information, the annual report of all these firms were comparatively analyzed for reported profitability in terms of earning per share (EPS) and its corresponding economic margin (EM) values; while EM being the economic value of firms operations and profitability in terms of ability of a firms to actually generate cash on invested capital after adjustment for the interest and inflation to determine the true. It was observed again that both measures are insignificantly related. The results supported our assumption that the firms are reporting accounting operating results; that cannot be supported by the actual economic operational capability of the firm, thus misleading the market and leaving it at the mercy of speculative forces, which might push the investors to make wrong investment decision. As a result the performance fundamental cannot be linked to market value of the firms.Factors affecting corporate governance might include weaknesses in local laws and its implementation, organizational structures and procedures, high level of corruption, weak economic infrastructure, acute energy shortages hindering industrial growth and political instability accompanied by deteriorating law&order situation in the country, thus resulting in more speculative activity in the market. Better regulatory regime is needed to ensure thorough disclosure&transparency in the published data by firms listed on stock market in order to strengthen the effectiveness and efficiency of stock market and ensure safeguarding of all stakeholders’interests.更多还原