【作者】 赵颖智；

【导师】 刘传江；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 社会经济发展过程中,随着生产生活方式的变化,社会生产形成农业(泛指广义上的农业,包括农林牧渔等第一产业)和工业(泛指广义上的工业,包括除农业以外的其他产业)两个部门；社会生活形成农村和城市两种类型。社会经济中最先出现的是农业部门,通过利用土地资源和劳动力生产农产品并在市场上进行交易来满足社会需求。随着科技的进步和社会生产分工的明确,各种生产机器的出现和资本、劳动力的集聚带来了工业的发展。工业生产在空间上的集聚引导非农人口的集聚,从而形成了城镇。土地、劳动力、资本和技术等各种生产要素在农业与工业、农村与城市之间流动,共同完成资源在时间和空间上的配置,促使产业分工引导不同产业的专业化生产,促进生产力的发展,提高了劳动生产效率,同时推动农业现代化、工业化和城镇化的形成与发展。中国社会经济发展进程中,工业化、城镇化和农业现代化的发展表现出一定的优先程度和相互关系。新中国建国初期,我国工业发展落后,国家开始实施优先发展重工业的赶超战略,同时严格限制农业人口向城镇转移,将大量农业生产剩余用于工业和城镇的发展；1978年我国实行改革开放政策,农业经营制度开始变革,但随后国家又将发展重心转向城镇；进入21世纪,随着“三农”问题的日益凸显,国家取消了农业税并提出社会主义新农村建设方针。这些发展方式和模式的选择导致中国现代化进程中出现工农关系不平衡、城乡关系不协调等问题。党的十七届五中全会明确提出了“十二五”时期“在工业化、城镇化深入发展中同步推进农业现代化”的重大任务。目前我国多数地区已经进入工业化中期阶段,具备了以工补农、以城带乡,重构工农关系、城乡关系,实现“三化”同步发展的现实条件。因此,本文从现代化进程中工业化、城镇化和农业现代化发展的阶段和相互关系入手,以农业和农村为中心,分析我国“三化”发展的相互影响,测算相互之间发展的协调度。首先通过古典区位理论、二元经济理论、增长极理论和制度变迁理论解释了农业现代化、工业化和城镇化发展变迁中土地、劳动力、资本和技术等生产要素的配置问题,说明发展中国家从落后农业国向发达工业国的转变,基础是通过工业发展,带动现代城市的产生,继而实现农业现代化。三化”发展中,农业现代化是基础,为工业化提供生产要素,为城镇化发展创造需求；工业化是主导,为城镇化提供产业支撑和资金支持,为农业现代化提供先进的技术、设备和经营方式；城镇化是载体,为工业化发展提供土壤,为农业剩余劳动力转移提供环境。在理清“三化”发展相互关系的基础上,本文对“三化”发展阶段进行划分。依据人均GDP和非农就业比重对工业化发展阶段进行划分,依据农业劳动生产率和农业机械化率的农业现代化发展阶段进行划分,依据城镇化率对城镇化发展阶段进行划分。将农业机械化率、非农就业率和城镇化率等相对指标的六个纵向不同阶段结合起来进行横向比较,得到判断“三化”是否同步发展的依据。根据上述“三化”发展阶段的划分依据,我国进入工业化中后期阶段,处于农业现代化初步实现阶段,位于城镇化加速期,农业现代化的发展一直处于滞后状况,在不同时期滞后于工业化和城镇化的发展。通过脉冲响应函数对我国1980-2010年农业现代化水平、工业化水平和城镇化水平进行分析,从工农关系来看,工业化对农业现代化的拉动作用明显大于农业现代化对工业化的拉动作用,说明工业反哺农业条件已逐渐成熟,发展工业仅靠占用农业剩余已经不够。从城乡关系来看,城镇化发展对农业现代化的推动效果明显大于农业现代化对城镇化发展的推动,说明城镇化发展中后期不可能光依靠从农业农村获得资源要素积累,将城镇发展收益投入农业农村建设会带来良好的效果。为了进一步说明“三化”发展之间的协调程度,本文构建了农业-工业-城镇复合系统(AIUCS),采取层次分析法和主成分分析法,确定农业现代化、新型工业化和新型城镇化各子系统的子准则层并选取相应的评价指标,利用1991-2010年数据,计算子系统各子准则层的得分和子系统综合得分。基于AIUCS各子系统的综合得分,构建协调度测算标度函数,对子系统内部的协调程度和子系统间协调程度进行测算分析。结果显示,从子系统内部协调度来看,新型工业化系统内部近20年发展的协调程度最差；从子系统之间协调度来看,农业现代化系统对新型城镇化和新型工业化系统的协调程度最差。基于上述研究分析结果,本文提出了“三化”协调发展的对策建议。我国从“三化”不协调走向“三化”协调发展需要推进发展方式转变,在可持续发展的理念下需要实现环境承载力、经济承载力和社会承载力“三个承载力”与“三化”同步发展,其中重点在于推动农业现代化的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 As lifestyles change in the process of social and economical development, social production divides to agricultural sector and industrial sector and social life divides to rural lifestyle and urban lifestyle. Agricultural sector can be seen as the earliest sector emerged in social economy to produce agricultural products and trade them in markets by making use of land resources, labor forces and to meet social needs. With technology progress and a clear social division of labor, the emergence of a variety of production machines and the accumulation of capital together with labor bring about further development of industry. The gathering of industrial production in space gives rise to the assemblage of non-agricultural production population, which thus forms the town. The flows of various essential productive factors of production such as land, labor, capital and technology in agricultural as well as industrial sectors between rural and urban areas has completed the configuration of resources in both time and space and helped to lead industrial division to specialized production of different industries. It also promotes the development of productive forces and labor productivity. Meanwhile, it pushes forward the formation and development of agricultural modernization, industrialization and urbanization (use "three modernizations" for short in the following paragraphs).Developments of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in China’s social and economic progress demonstrate certain degrees of priority and interrelations. Our country implemented strategies to promote industry by occupying agricultural surplus products and strictly limiting migration from rural to urban in the early of New China. System of agricultural operation begun to change since the reform and opening-up in1978, but then the country shifted development focus to cities again. As the problems of agriculture and rural become more and more critical, the country abolished agriculture taxation and formulated new socialist countryside construction guidelines in recent years. Those development strategies lead to the problems of imbalanced industry-agriculture relationships and uncoordinated urban-rural relationships in China’s modernization process. The seventh session of the Fifth Plenary Session of the Party has clearly put forward the major task of implementing further developments of industrialization and urbanization with the synchronization of agricultural modernization during the "12th Five-Year" period. Most areas in China step into industrialization medium term and have the conditions to development agriculture and rural by making use of subsides and investments from industry and urban.Therefore, this dissertation starts analysis with the interrelationships of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization during the course of China’s modernization. It analyses the influences and interacts among "three modernizations" and calculates degree of coordination in terms of "three modernizations" centers on agriculture and rural.Firstly, this dissertation interprets the allocation of production factors such as land resources, labor forces, capital and technology during the process of agricultural modernization, industrialization and urbanization based on theories including classical location theory, dual economic theory, growth pole theory and institutional change theory. It explains that the transitions from developing countries to developed industrial countries is based on the development of industry to promote the generation of cities and then to realize agricultural modernization. During the developments of "three modernizations", agricultural modernization is the foundation to provide productive factors for industrialization and create demands for urbanization; industrialization is the leading force to provide capital for urbanization and advanced technology, equipments and management mode for agricultural modernization; urbanization is the carrier to provide space for industrialization and conditions for the transfer of agriculture surplus labor.In clarifying the interrelationships of "three modernizations", this dissertation classifies the evolutionary phases of "three modernizations". It divides the development stages of industrialization based on GDP per-captia and non-agricultural employment rate, divides the development stages of agricultural modernization based on agricultural labor productivity and agricultural mechanization level, and divides the development stages of urbanization based on percentage of urbanization. Combining the six stage of relative indicators with agricultural mechanization rate, non-agricultural employment rate and urbanization rate and making horizontal comparison, we can get the basis to assess whether "three modernizations" in synchronic stages.According to the basis of classified phases of "three modernizations", our country is now in the middle and late periods of industrialization, in the initial implementation phase of agricultural modernization and in the accelerated phase of urbanization. The development of agricultural modernization has been lagging behind industrialization and urbanization. Using impulse response function to analyze the interactions of "three modernizations" from1980to2010, we find that the pulling effect on agricultural modernization from industrialization is significantly greater than the pulling effect on industrialization from agricultural modernization. It illuminates that conditions of industry nurturing agriculture has matured. View from urban-rural relations, the pushing effect on agricultural modernization from urbanization is significantly greater than the pushing effect on urbanization from agricultural modernization. It illuminates that the development of urbanization in the middle and late period can’t only rely on resources factor accumulation from agricultural and rural access, putting certain urbanization benefits to agricultural and rural construction will bring better results.To further illustrate the coordination degree of "three modernizations", this dissertation builds Agriculture-Industry-Urban Composite System (AIUCS), uses analytic hierarchy process and principal component analysis to confirm the sub-criteria layer of "three modernizations" and selects appropriate evaluation indexes. It calculates the score of sub-criteria layer of subsystem and its composite score by using the data from1991to2010. Based on the score of AIUCS, it builds measure scaling function to calculate coordination degree within subsystems and between subsystems. The results show that the coordination degree within new industrialization system is worst in the recent20years. Between subsystems, agricultural modernization system coordinates worst to other two systems.Based on the above analysis results, this dissertation puts forward strategies to coordinate the development of "three modernizations". It is of great significance for China to transform development pattern from unharmonious way to coordinate "three modernizations" by promoting developments under the bearing capacity of environment, economy and society and focus more on how to promote the development of agricultural modernization.更多还原