【作者】 Gerard Joseph White；

【导师】 黄宪；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 金融学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 本文系统地分析了美国金融体系制度的根本缺陷。人为降低利息率和连续进行的8个经济刺激计划,使美国国债在短短四年内增加了6万多亿美元。作者认为在凯恩斯主义的经济理论的指导下,在遭遇经济危机的时候,通过增加政府支出解决不了现代的债务危机；非生产性消费融资借来的钱若花在货币刺激政策上将导致美国的债务危机越来越难以解决。本文列举了主流经济学家对2007年危机发生的原因分析和理解。前美联储主席格林斯潘于2008年国会听证会上就金融危机作证时,承认了他抗拒对金融市场监管的做法有部份的过错。投资者轻视风险,政府一再减息,助涨房地产市场泡沫化,最后房地产市场崩溃拖垮了信贷市场,这是比较公认的危机发生原因。作者认为不仅要分析危机的起因,更重要的是要了解危机的根源,分析更具体的经济和货币政策的传导产生的巨大负面影响。只有充分了解这些具体的经济和货币政策,才能够更深入的理解已经发生的危机,才能预测其未来的趋势,并在当下对未来做好准备。关于金融危机的理论研究,共有两大类有影响力的人,已经赢得了全球的瞩目。第一群人是凯恩斯经济学派的支持者,他们认为危机发生的时候需要政府更多参与、控制和监管经济运行,必须通过积极的财政政策扩大信贷,刺激需求。第二群人,代表人物是米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)他们是古典经济学的支持者,他们往往在危机时刻提出紧缩,用弗里德曼的话说,让市场冷静的最好办法就是让他去碰壁,而不是人为的降温。另外还有较少的一群人,他们提出系统的改革,并非单纯的更多或更少的政府干预,更多或更少的金融法规,他们建议采用新思路,试图改变美国在全球经济体系中的地位。正是这种迥异的理念决定了世界对上世纪30年代“罗斯福新政”历史地位完全不同的两种评价：凯恩斯主义认为,罗斯福新政采取的扩张性政策和干预措施防止了恐慌的进一步蔓延,并通过恢复有效需求帮助美国走出萧条；而货币主义者则认为,正是因为政府的不当干预和救助,扰乱了市场自身调整的周期,反而延缓了痛苦结束的时间,直到1939年二战爆发,美国才依靠战争带来的繁荣摆脱了危机,因此是战争而不是罗斯福新政让美国走出萧条。对于中国而言,凯恩斯主义的指导性正在发生作用。1998年因为及时启动的积极财政政策,使得波及亚洲的金融危机并没有对中国实体经济产生实质性的影响。2008年底中国为应对金融危机推出了4万亿元投资大单,4万亿救市政策可看做是凯恩斯主义药效的最佳发挥。4万亿投资和2009年货币投放约9.6万亿元贷款,是配合刺激计划所采取的“适度宽松”货币政策的体现,似乎取得了抵御金融危机的“胜利”。日本政府遵循西方的经济规划,其中包括诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)和美国联邦储备委员会主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的意见,大幅增加政府赤字支出超过20年,在将利率维持极低的标准的同时,政府持续借贷和消费,投入基础设施和其他政府计划。结果是：两个失去的十年。不断增加的债务占国内生产总值的比例现已达250%。日本人储蓄率从1990年的15%到如今的不到1%。美元作为世界储备货币的地位允许美国不仅向自己的纳税人借债,还向全世界包括日本人借债。美国政府显然已经选择了跟随约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的模型,实行规模的经济刺激支出,希望再次实现繁荣。当然,在危机时期的刺激总是比紧缩政策更容易执行。为什么美国8个刺激计划都没有如政客之前许诺的那样奏效?本文认为,2007年开始的危机完全不同于1929年的大萧条,大萧条主要是快速的货币收缩引起的,而目前的情况是相反的。现在政府选择凯恩斯主义,除了看似能对经济取得短期刺激效果之外,更为深层的原因恐怕还在于,让政府获得更多和更广泛干预经济的理论依据。凯恩斯主义关心的是短期问题,不关心长期问题。一项政策给这个国家的长期发展带来伤害的时候,为什么还要坚持这样的政策?唯一的理由是政治上的考虑。地方政府官员一般只考虑短期的事情,不考虑长期的事情,凯恩斯主义尤其适合只考虑短期利益的地方政府官员使用。本文还进一步论述,如果没有世界的其他国家资助并持续增加购买美国国债,美国经济取得目前的状态是不可能的。美债的危机除了降低美元地位,动摇世界对美国的信心外,也使得全球市场变得更加不明朗与不确定。截至2013年1月,外国政府持有的美国国债从2012年1月的5.056万亿美元增加至5.6165万亿,涨幅为11%,被压抑的美元供应和价格造成的扭曲,就像大坝不能永远阻止流动的水一样,水坝在高压下终将崩溃,美元拟或有同样的命运。本文全面详细地介绍了美国8个经济刺激计划,并评述了这8个计划对国家债务、对企业、对教育、对其他各方面的深刻影响。还通过具体实例列举了如家庭保暖工程、汽车补贴等计划中存在极大的浪费性支出。本文提出应对危机的政策建议是降低企业税负、降低福利水平、限制政府过度干预市场、吸引海外资金回流等。本文撰写的目的是让读者清晰地了解未来更大的危机是不可避免的,为什么会发生在美国,其原因是什么。目前正在持续的金融危机没有简单的解决方案,本文力图以普通美国人的立场和较全而角度来描述危机的根源、影响和我们应该采取的行动,以及采取不同行动带来的后果。更多还原

【Abstract】 This thesis is focuses on proving the U.S. financial system is fundamentally flawed. Artificially low interest rates and8failed American "stimulus" plans adding more than＄6trillion to the U.S. national debt in just four years; is more than enough evidence that the currently followed Keynesian economic theory in times of economic crises, involving the government via increased government spending can not solve modern debt crises. The question of how can America pay its debt cannot be answered truthfully because the money borrowed to finance unproductive consumption in the United States has been spent on monetary stimulus. It is not sitting in a bank or invested someplace else.This thesis also describes the financial crisis itself, and analyzes its cause and fundamental background. As Alan Greenspan admitted his faults at the Congressional Hearings of2008, banks made risky loans and used a high degree of leverage and the government lacked control financial activities. This would be the most common understanding of the reason why the crisis of2007occurred. But it is important to analyze not only the origins and causes of the crisis, but economic and monetary policy in general and more specifically, who influences it and why it is important. Only by having a clear understanding of the aforementioned sentence can we ever hope to have a clear idea of what is happening now and possibly have some clues of what is to come in the future and be able to prepare for it.This thesis explains several philosophies to solve the financial crisis from different groups of people. There are two main groups of influential people that have garnered much global attention during this dire time of financial crisis. One group of people, proponents of Keynesian economics are more or less disciples of John Maynard Keynes who believed times of crisis required more government involvement in the economy. Others such as Milton Friedman are proponents of classical economics that often propose austerity in times of crisis. A third yet, less heard group of people are the ones that propose change in the system whether that mean more or less government interference, more or less regulations, and of course suggestions of new ways that instigate change in our global economic system.For the Chinese government, the government spending obviously worked. After the4trillion yuan stimulus package was announced by the Chinese government in2008to minimize the impact of the global financial crisis, GDP growth rate expanded by6.74%from2.36%in2009. China reduced fluctuations in the economy and brought the economic growth close to baseline level in the near post-crisis period.The Japanese government followed the advice of western economic planners including Nobel laureate Paul Krugman and current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. For more than20years the Japanese government has continued to borrow and spend on infrastructure and other wasteful government programs while keeping interest rates artificially low. The result:two lost decades and ever increasing debt to GDP ratio which now stands at nearly250%. Japanese people had a savings rate of15%a year in1990, today it is less than1%. America is no different than Japan with the exception of the U.S. dollar being the world’s reserve currency that currently allows it not only the ability to print money to pay its bills, but also, to borrow from its taxpayers and all the countries in the world.The U.S. government has chosen to follow the model of John Maynard Keynes and engage in massive stimulus spending in the hope that the United States can "spend" its way to prosperity. Stimulus in times of crisis is always easier than austerity. This thesis covers the political reasons of why it does.This thesis also analyzes the potential American national debt crisis and its relationship with the financial crisis. The U.S. economy in its current state could not exist without the support of the rest of the world subsidizing U.S. dollars by its increased purchases of U.S. debt. By locking away foreign owned U.S. debt recorded in a Federal Reserve computer, not only does the debt need not be printed but it also need not enter the market place to purchase real goods and services thereby preserving the U.S. dollar purchasing power. As of January2013foreign governments held＄5616.5billion worth of U.S. treasuries up from＄5056.8billion in January2012(+11%) It is crucial to remember that pent up dollar supply and the price distortions caused by it will not last forever.In this thesis’s main content, the author enumerates the effects of the eight stimulus plans including national debt, private companies, and higher education. Also, the author gives suggested solutions for an improved American economy including lowering corporate tax rates, curtailing public benefits, limiting government involvement in free-market activities and eliminating financially destructive corporate welfare.The aim of this paper is for reader to understand why a future crisis is inevitable in the United States and what its causes were. There are no easy solutions to the current and pending financial crisis. Many academics, scholars, media commentators and the like have commented and written about specific aspects of the financial crisis at different points in time. I have never before seen a truly comprehensive thesis describing not only the origins of the crisis, but the effects of it, actions taken to avert it, and the impending benefits and consequences we can all expect in the future. I believe this thesis is unique in that it describes in full detail every step of the financial crisis.更多还原