【作者】 艾琳娜（Elena Nechaeva）；

【导师】 刘德斌； 宋鸥；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 国际政治， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 本项研究旨在探讨中俄在石油和天然气谈判的过程和结果中存在的差异,研究的问题是为什么石油谈判能够成功促成“东西伯利亚—太平洋”石油管道的建成,并增加了俄罗斯向中国的石油出口,而天然气谈判却陷入停滞。本文从三个不同的理论视角分析石油和天然气的谈判,并运用实例来佐证每种理论方法的适用性,将三种理论模型应用于石油和天然气谈判两个案例中。之所以选择这三种方法是因其或多或少都会对谈判产生作用。笔者基于相对收益、达成谈判协议的最佳选择和未来的阴影三种模型设置了三个相关假设,并将之应用于验证中俄石油和天然气谈判。假设一：俄罗斯和中国担心与潜在协议相关的相对收益,共同的关注阻碍了它们在天然气合作项目上的长足发展,但是在重要的石油谈判问题上,因为回报率很高,所以这项合作更加稳定。假设二：俄罗斯和/或中国在天然气方面有更好的替代方案,这可能会阻碍进一步的合作。石油谈判之所以进行顺利,是因为外部选择价值不大。假设三：俄罗斯和中国在谈判的不同阶段将未来变化的可能性和合作的稳定性因素考虑进去,那么在每个阶段都会有影响谈判的进程的因素,并且在双方达成协议的过程中也会影响利益幅度。本文用两个案例来研究分析“进程跟踪法”。个案研究是作为学科结构类型来展开的,既考虑到以运用理论对个案进行解释的形式所呈现的经验主义贡献,同时又兼顾以理论确认形式呈现出的理论贡献。分析性叙事和内容分析是写作的两种运行机制,访谈、媒体报道和双方文档也被用于支持这项研究。文章论证以区域和全球能源关系作为大背景展开。论文分析了中俄的能源形势,确认了两国能源战略之至为关键的迫切需求以及在各自的能源安全中的相互作用；对石油和天然气领域的合作谈判进程进行跟踪分析,随后论析了双方在互动过程中面临的主要挑战和机遇以及能源问题在其政治议程中的地位。最后在大量的事实和分析材料基础上对中俄石油和天然气合作的交易模式(相对收益模式、达成谈判协议的最佳选择模式、未来阴影下的谈判模式)进行了验证。通过分析发现,当前俄罗斯的燃料和能源部门的发展为内部和外部能源政策的制定提供了一些重要依据。一方面,俄罗斯拥有世界上最大的矿物原料基地,在当前和未来一段时间内能够满足俄罗斯经济发展中对碳氢化合物的需求；另一方面,传统的天然气甚至是更具价值的油田减少了一半以上,因此转移到新的勘探区域是至关重要的,当然其中包括俄罗斯近海地区。但是,俄罗斯主要出口原油,发展高附加值产品的出口是其能源政策的主要任务。一些主要的勘探地建设了炼油厂和液化厂。俄罗斯能源产品的主要出口方向是欧洲和独联体。俄罗斯能源出口战略主要侧重于地缘化和产品多样化,此外高附加值能源展品的出口量也是其主要目标,其中“东西伯利亚—太平洋”石油管道的建成就是其转向东部多样化的最好体现。这种面向东部的转变是由俄罗斯东西伯利亚和远东地区的政策发展所决定的,它包括天然气运输和分配体制的大规模扩张,东部多元化是其国内和国际发展政策的一部分。俄罗斯能源发展政策是根据能源部门提出的一项名为“2030年前俄罗斯能源战略”的全面计划而制定的。这项战略是国家全面发展社会和经济的一部分,旨在确保能源资源更有效地开发,从而挖掘出俄罗斯经济发展潜力。这项战略意味着在俄罗斯经济发展中从“能源支配”转向了能源作为其经济健康发展的一部分。俄罗斯能源部门的发展呈现出灵活性特征：具备一套手段和发展机制；国内市场和国际市场的双重转向；非传统区域石油和天然气资源的开发。北极海域和北部地区是战略发展的重点,它不仅与新区域能源开采政策有关,而且从长远来看它可能关系到能源安全和可持续发展。国内能源政策转变的方向是减少经济发展中的能源强度、提高能源效率。俄罗斯能源战略的国际层面也是全面战略布局的一部分。俄罗斯的目标是充分融入世界能源市场,通过与传统的俄罗斯的能源消费者维持稳定的关系来确保其国民经济获得最大的效益。此外与新伙伴也建立了平等的稳定关系,加强与能源进口国和能源出口商在双边和多边层面上的对话。这一能源战略意味着与国际伙伴在俄联邦领土上不确定的勘探与生产项目上进行合作式互动,同时加强俄罗斯海外能源公司的地位。中国在俄罗斯能源战略中扮演重要角色。在与中国能源合作中,俄罗斯面临两个关键性的框架难题：中国的独家经销权和俄罗斯的能源的区域出口；资源运输路线的划定。俄罗斯在能源领域对中国的态度有以下五个特点：1.在亚太地区,中国是重要的但绝不是唯一的俄罗斯能源消费国。俄罗斯能源政策向东部转向能否成功很大程度上取决于与中国的合作。2.俄罗斯对中国的能源政策植根于俄罗斯的远东发展战略。东部能源战略的发展方向有两个相互关联的目标——地区能源资源的发展和接近亚太市场。3.俄罗斯计划利用出口收入、基础设施方面的投资和发展其他项目来促进国内发展。4.俄罗斯非常欢迎与中国能源企业在俄联邦和海外进行联合开发。在俄罗斯近海地区发展项目上与中国公司进行合作的前景得到研讨。5.俄罗斯对中国能源政策的实现机制涉及了国家层面、能源企业层面、政治举措、政府间会议、谈判和法律合同框架层面,而且谈判也提及了其他国家企业可能进入亚太地区市场的可能性这一问题。中国能源政策的主要目标是常规的安全获取资源,确保维持国家经济、社会和政治的稳定。中国领导人追求降低当地经济发展对能源的过度依赖,强调的是改进现有的能源框架,以单位面积内的国内生产总值最低的能耗创造最高的资源利用率,限制能源生产和消费对环境的影响。以上优先政策是源于第十二个五年计划(2011—2015)的具体方案的提出：提高电力生产能力、扩大国家电网的范围；全面发展石油、天然气和新能源。明确提出节能和对可再生资源的和合理利用,改善能源结构、采取措施逐渐取代煤炭开发,积极合理利用国内资源。与此同时,面对地方措施未能解决中国石油和天然气依赖进口的问题,一些计划要求对国内资源进行综合开采。但是,随着中国能源生产增长率持续下降,石油和天然气的进口不断增高。过度依赖外国能源资源使中国经济易受外国供应商行为变化的制约。因此,国家能源政策的国际维度重要性日增。国际层面是中国能源战略的重要组成部分,能源战略的实施主体是国家能源公司及国家政治领袖的密切合作。近年来,中国的企业已经扩大了他们的全球的业务范围,其中包括勘探和开采、管道建设、参与工程项目、设备出口、石油和天然气供应、能源项目的股份分配等方面。中国政府进行的这项政策总体上呈现多样化的特点：供给路线、供给资源、直接获取中亚国家和俄罗斯、中东和北非、北美和南美国家的资源。迄今为止,尽管中国采取了诸多政治和经济措施,其能源资源的主体部分仍然来源于中东和波斯湾地区。但是多样化的进程并不局限于地理层面。中国计划将继续用清洁能源来取代煤炭,这可能会成为天然气进口的额外因素。俄罗斯在中国能源战略中的作用是由其多元化政策界定的。在与俄罗斯交往的过程中,中国使用一些有效手段实现其政策,包括政治支持、政府间组织和业务咨询、建立法律框架以及使用财政和政治手段。中俄之间石油和天然气的合作历史表明了国家间能源政策逐步和解的趋势。最初的能源合作探讨是基于原有能源合作的积极因素,例如“供应商一消费者”关系模式、地理上的邻近性、两个经济体的对应需求等等。在合作的过程中,政治动议和定期对话模式的建立对于促进两国的和解直至能源合作都起到了重要作用,并且成为了中俄关系的支柱之一。俄罗斯国内的发展和包括合作项目在内的国内能源行业的转型的愿望都对石油和天然气的谈判产生重要影响。政治对话和相互让步(折扣和信贷)在这两个行业的合作发展中产生了积极的影响。俄方国家层面以及国有企业的参与都积极促进了合作的稳定进行。然而,在石油供应领域的谈判进行得更加迅速,而天然气的谈判经历了一系列的立场转变与延误。定价仍然是俄罗斯与中国能源关系的重要议题。合作双方都试图通过与第三方积极的合作来增强自己在谈判中的优势地位。对于中国来说,第三方主要是来自中亚的一些国家；而对于俄罗斯来说,第三方主要是日本和韩国。中国也将发展与俄罗斯的关系作为其确保能源安全的一部分,将旨在提高能源利用率与能源节约的措施相结合,运用科学的方法发展能源板块,推广新技术、广泛利用国内资源和抢占国外市场都为社会和经济的可持续发展奠定了基础。中国能源政策的国际层面填补了国内资源缺口,通过多元路线与资源供应确保了能源安全,增加了外汇储备。中国能源消费量的稳定增长使中国成为全球石油和天然气市场的主要参与者之一。俄罗斯有机会在几个方向扩大它的活动范围：增加石油和天然气的出口量,利用联合基础设施项目吸收中国的资金,开采东西伯利亚和远东地区的能源资源。俄罗斯的高素质的技术人员可以参与中国发起的能源项目,与此同时,俄罗斯在中国能源市场面临同一区域其他国家的激烈竞争,因此,中俄能源关系是东亚和中亚共同能源市场形成的一部分。俄罗斯与中国之间的能源合作不仅巩固了两国的战略伙伴关系,也是亚太地区区域能源安全体系建立过程中的重要组成部分。在中俄石油和天然气谈判的过程中相对收益理论并没有起到很大的作用,未来阴影模式也没有为中俄石油和天然气合作存在的差异提供解释。尽管这两种模型都被纳入了谈判的进程,而且在不同阶段也着重考虑了一些必要因素。为了分析相对收益问题,我们已经开发一套跟踪分析方案,它可以作用于这两个例子。相对收益模式的重要追踪分析成果就是相对收益模式在中国和俄罗斯都没有发挥决定性的作用。然而,两个国家都被证实一直关注“未来的阴影”问题,而且在谈判进程中的不同阶段都会应用这种模式,这意味着俄罗斯和中国都会认真看待两国的能源关系。双方花费很长时间讨论交易细节,争取达成最佳的谈判协议,石油谈判顺利表明相关的模型命题很快就实现了。真正对中俄能源谈判提供解释的模型是“达成谈判协议的最佳选择”,我们可以通过评估达成谈判协议的最佳方案来预测国家的行为。中国更愿意等待与俄罗斯在昂贵的基础设施项目上的合作,或者力图让俄罗斯去承担实施的风险。我们可以预测到中国在谈判中会坚定立场,除非中国认为俄罗斯的项目是它达成谈判协议的最佳选择,否则对协议的达成不会提供足够的信贷与投资。从长远来看,俄罗斯的“达成谈判协议的最佳选”的价值将会降低,而与中国达成协议的兴趣可能会增加。随着时间贴现率的增大,俄罗斯倾向于达成协议。但由于它的时间贴现值尚不是很高,所以它需要时间进行谈判。风险更多是中期的,和未来的挑战相比,俄罗斯更愿意确保现在的地位,但如果尽量将对方的战略选择符合俄罗斯的战略需要,那么依旧会有一些合作的机会。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this research was to find an explanation of the differences in the process and outcomes of Sino-Russian oil and gas negotiations. The research question was why did the oil negotiations lead to a successful realization of the ’Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean’oil pipeline and resulted in growing exports of oil from Russia to China; whereas gas negotiations have stalled.The oil and gas negotiations were analyzed from three different theoretical angles, and applicability/non-applicability of each approach was identified with a provision of substantiation. Three bargaining theory models, which single out specific reasons for the more or less effective negotiations, were applied to the two cases. Three relevant hypotheses, based on Relative gains model, Best alternative to a negotiated agreement model and Shadow of future model, were tested on the Sino-Russia oil and gas negotiations:Hypothesis1was that Russia and China worried about relative gains associated with the potential agreements. Mutual concerns prevented them from making considerable advances in gas cooperative projects, but mattered less in oil negotiations, because the payoffs from such cooperation were more balanced.Hypothesis2was that Russia and/or China had significant alternative options in gas sector, which created obstacles to cooperative advancements. Oil negotiations proceeded more effectively, as the outside options were of less value.Hypothesis3was Russia and China at different stages of negotiations took into account the probability of future changes versus future stability of cooperation. At each stage it influenced the pace of the negotiations and level of interest of the parties in the negotiated agreement.Process-tracing method, using two-case studies analysis, was utilized in this research. The case studies were conducted as a disciplined-configurative type, which allowed for empirical contribution in the form of interpretation of the case with a theory, and theoretical contribution in a form of theory-confirmation. Analytic narrative and content analysis were used as operational mechanisms. Interviews, press accounts and documents were used to support the research. The analysis was placed in the context of the regional and global energy relations.Current energy situation in China and Russia was analyzed, and key imperatives of the energy strategies of the two counties as well as the role they attributed to one another in their energy security were identified. Process-tracing of the negotiations and cooperation developments in oil and gas sectors was followed by identification of main challenges and opportunities of such interactions and of the value the sides attributed to energy issues on their political agendas. The bargaining models (relative gains model; best alternative to negotiated agreement model; and bargaining in the shadow of future model) were tested on the vast factual and analytical material on the two cases of the Chinese-Russian oil and gas cooperation.The performed analysis revealed that current state of development of the Russia’s fuel and energy sector provides some major imperatives for the development of the internal and external energy policies. On the one hand, Russia has one of the largest mineral raw material bases in the world and can guarantee provision of the current and future demand of the Russian economy in hydrocarbons. On the other hand, traditional gas and even more importantly oil fields are depleted by more than50%, which provides for the necessity of shifting to the new exploration regions, including Russia’s offshore area.Russia primarily exports crude, however, development of the high value products export is one of the major tasks of the energy policy. Refineries and liquefaction plants are constructed by the major exploration sites. Russia’s major export directions for its energy products are Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Russia’s energy strategy focus is geographical as well as product diversification and increasing the volumes of exports of energy products with high added value. The shift towards eastward diversification was witnessed with the launch of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline. The turn to the East is determined by the domestic need for the development of the Russia’s East Siberia and Far East, which includes major expansion of the gas transportation and distribution system. Eastern direction of the diversification policy is a part of the domestic and international development.Russia’s energy policy is based on a comprehensive program of the energy sector development defined in the "Russian Energy Strategy till2030". The strategy is a part of comprehensive social and economic development goals of the country and aims at securing most efficient exploitation of the energy resources and realization of the economic potential of Russia. The strategy implies gradual transition from the energy domination to the healthy share of the energy sector in the Russia’s economy.Russia’s approach to energy sector development is characterized by flexibility in terms of the set instruments and mechanisms of development; orientation both on the domestic and foreign markets; development of the oil and gas resources in non-traditional regions. Development of Arctic seas and Northern territories is a focus of the strategy. It is connected not only with (he policy of developing new regions’ resources, but with the energy security and sustainable development of the sector in the long-term perspective. Domestically energy policy is oriented at decreasing energy intensity of the economy and developing energy efficiency.International dimension of the Russian energy strategy is a part of the comprehensive approach. Russia aims at full integration in the world energy market and getting the most out of it for the national economy by maintaining stable relations with the traditional consumers of the Russian energy resources, as well as establishment of equally stable relations with new partners; intensifying dialogue with the states-importers of the energy resources, as well as states-exporters on bilateral and multilateral levels. The energy strategy implies engagement of international partners in the risk and problematic exploration and production projects on the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as strengthening positions of the leading Russian energy companies abroad.China plays a growing role in the Russian energy strategy. Russia’s approach towards energy cooperation with China developed within the frame of two key dilemmas resolved on the Russian side:exclusivity for China versus regional exports of Russia’s energy, and definition of the routes of the supplies.Russia’s approach to China in energy sector implies five main features:1. China is an important, but not exclusive consumer of the Russian energy exports in the Asia-Pacific region. The outcome of the Russia’s energy policy in the eastern direction will strongly depend on the success of the cooperation with China.2. Russia’s energy policy towards China is incorporated in the Russia’s strategy of development of Far East. Eastern energy policy direction has two interrelated goals-development of the energy resources of the region and access to Asia-Pacific markets.3. Russia plans to use export revenues and investments in infrastructure and development projects for the domestic developments.4. Russia welcomes joint projects with Chinese energy enterprises both on the territory of the Russian Federation and abroad. Potential opportunities for cooperation with Chinese companies in Russia’s offshore development projects are investigated. 5. The instruments of the realization of Russia’s energy policy towards China include both state level and the level of the energy companies, political initiatives, intergovernmental meetings, negotiations and contractual-legal framework, as well as bargaining leverages arising from the possibility of entering the markets of the other states of the Asia-Pacific Region.China’s energy policy main objective is regular trouble proof access to resources. The strategic character of the industry is derived from its utmost importance for supporting economic, social and political stability of the state. China’s leaders pursue well-directed policy of decreasing energy dependency of local economy. Emphasis is given to energy structure improvement, energy efficient economy with lower energy consumption per one unit of GDP, limiting effect of energy production and consumption on the environment.The priorities mentioned above are implemented through programmes covered by The Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011-2015):expansion of electricity generating capacities and the national electricity grid; comprehensive development of oil, natural gas and new energy resources. Energy conservation projects and renewable energy resources are clearly advocated. Plans of energy structure improvement are developed introducing measures for gradual replacement of coal. Domestic resources are exploited actively.At the same time, local measures fail to solve the problem of China’s dependency on imported oil and gas. Programmes and statements call for comprehensive exploitation of domestic resources. But growth rates of China’s energy production continue to fall, while oil and natural gas import goes up and up.Heavy dependency on foreign energy resources makes China’s economy vulnerable to the performance of its suppliers. As a result, international dimension of the country’s energy policy is growing in significance.The international dimension forms a key part of China’s energy strategy and is implemented by the state energy corporations and political leaders of the country in their close collaboration. Over recent years, Chinese enterprises have been expanding their global activities, which now include exploration and exploitation, pipeline construction, participation in engineering projects, equipment export, oil and natural gas supply, shares in energy projects.The government of China proceeds with its policy of total diversification:supply routes and supply sources, direct access to resources of Central Asian countries and Russia, the Middle East and North Africa, North and South America. So far, in spite of political and economical measures, major part of energy resources comes to China from the Middle East and the Persian Gulf region. Diversification process is not limited to geography. The country plans to continue substitution of coal with cleaner energy resources. This may become an additional factor in favor of natural gas import.Russia’s role in the Chinese Energy Strategy is defined by its diversification policy. China uses available means of pursuing its policy in the Russian direction, which include political support, intergovernmental and business consultations, creation of legal framework as well as the use of financial and political leverages.The history of the oil and gas cooperation between Russia and China demonstrates the tendency of gradual rapprochement of the countries’energy policies. Initial cooperative discussions were based on the pre-existing positive factors of energy cooperation, such as relations of the structure of the relations in the’supplier-consumer’format, geographical proximity, correspondence of the needs of the two economies. In the course of cooperation development, political initiative and the establishment of regular dialogue formats played a crucial role in the promotion of mutual rapprochement until energy cooperation occupied a strategic place in the relations of the countries and formed one of the pillars of the Sino-Russian relations.Both oil and gas negotiations were influenced significantly by the internal developments in Russia and its desire to include cooperative projects in the frame of the domestic energy sector transformation. Political dialogue and mutual concessions (discounts and credits) had a positive impact on the development of the cooperation in both sectors. Involvement of the state and state companies on the Russian side brought an effect of stabilization and development of cooperation. However, the negotiations in the field of oil supplies went faster, whereas gas negotiations have experienced a series of shifts in positions and delays.Pricing remains the key issue of Russian-Chinese energy relations. Both partners try to strengthen their positions at negotiations through more active cooperation with third parties. For the People’s Republic of China these are the countries of Central Asia, for Russia—Japan and Korea. In shaping its energy relations with Russia, China makes them a part of a comprehensive approach to its energy security. A combination of measures aimed at improving energy efficiency and energy conservation, scientific approach to energy segment development, promotion of new technologies, extensive exploitation of domestic resources and forced occupation of foreign markets are meant to create a solid foundation for further sustainable social and economic development. The international dimension of China’s energy policy provides for filling in the gaps in domestic resources, ensuring energy security through diversification of routes and sources of supply, asset acquisition in foreign deposits.Stable growth and energy consumption volumes of China make the country one of the major players at the global oil and gas market. Russia has an opportunity to extend its activities in several directions:to add volumes of exported oil and gas, to draw China’s funds for development of joint infrastructure projects and exploitation of resources of East Siberia and the Far East. Highly qualified Russian technicians could take part in energy projects initiated by China. At the same time, Russia is only one of the players at China’s energy market facing serious competitors with similar geography. Thus, energy relations of Russia and China are a part of a general trend associated with formation of a common energy market of East and Central Asia.Energy cooperation between Russia and China not only strengthens their strategic partnership, but is also a part of the process of establishing a regional system of energy security in Asia-Pacific region.Relative gains did not play a considerable role in oil and gas negotiations between Russia and China. Shadow of future model also did not provide explanation for the differences. Although both models provided incites into the process of negotiations and factors needed to consider at different stages. We have developed a tracing analytical scheme for analyzing relative gains concerns, which worked on both of the cases. Important outcome of the relative gains model application is that relative gains did not play decisive role in the behavior of neither Russia, nor China. Both countries however proved to have been concerned with the’shadow of future’, and acted according to the model at each stage of the negotiation process. This implies that Russia and China take their energy relations perspective seriously. The deals are elaborated for long periods of time, and the sides take time to negotiate better agreements, albeit realization in the case of oil showed the relevant model proposition of a fast realization. The enforcement of the gas agreement when it is reached can be expected to be realized with political support and positive advancements.The model which provides an explanation is the principled negotiations formula of the Best alternative to a negotiated agreement. We can predict the behavior of the state by evaluating the value of its BATNA. China will prefer to wait with the realization of the costly infrastructure projects from Russia, or to load the burden of responsibility for the risks of their implementation on the Russian shoulders. The more China trusts to have BATNA in the future the less commitment it shows to the negotiated agreement. We can expect that until China considers Russia’s projects as her BATNA, China will take a firm stand in negotiations, by not providing sufficient credit or investment into the negotiated agreement.In the long-run Russia’s BATNA value will be decreasing; and the interest in reaching an agreement with China will be growing. Russia will be inclined to reaching an agreement as the time discount rate becomes larger. But as its time discount value is not high yet, it can allow for some time to negotiate. The risks are more of middle-range ones, and Russia would prefer to secure its position now in front of future challenges, but still has certain time availability to try to bring the position of the counterpart closer to the Russia’s preferred outcome.更多还原