【作者】 李慰；

【导师】 刘重力；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 开放经济条件下市场均衡由来自供给和需求两方面的多种因素所决定，这些因素的结构性或冲击性波动使世界经济呈现出一定的商业周期。为保持对外贸易的稳步发展，降低国际市场波动对国内经济的冲击，政府往往需要通过政策手段对市场进行干预。国际贸易理论及长期的经济实践为宏观调控提供了多种出口导向型的政策工具，但是随着世界经济一体化和贸易自由化的程度加深，这些政策工具中绝大多的贸易促进措施被国际组织所限制。在这样的背景下，各国政府的干预手段均从直接干预转向间接干预，出口退税作为其中的一种政策工具愈发被各国政府所重视。同时，出口退税制度作为我国重要的财税制度和贸易制度，已经成为我国政府宏观经济调控的一个重要组成部分。2008年下半年开始，在世界经济危机的影响下我国对外贸易出现大幅度下滑，进出口额连续数月呈现负增长，特别是我国长期以来具有国际竞争优势的轻工业产品、机电产品，出口量均持续下降。为应对经济危机的冲击，我国政府综合使用了多种积极调控措施，出口层面则在2008年8月到2009年6月不到一年的时间内，先后七次上调出口退税率，机电产品中缝纫机、CRT电视及电视用发送设备等商品的出口退税率提高到17%，基本实现了全额退税；轻工业产品中纺织品、服装的出口退税率提高到16%，与全额退税相比只差一个百分点。在多种调控政策的综合作用下，当前我国的经济形势已有所好转。但是，从短期来看，欧洲债务危机前景仍不明朗，美国经济复苏步伐缓慢且失业率居高不下，发达国家量化宽松和隐性量化化宽松政策导致的输入型通货膨胀使新兴市场国家需求萎缩，这些因素互相叠加将对我国的出口贸易形成新一轮的冲击；从长期来看，此次经济危机促使各国重新审视当前的世界分工格局，发达国家更加重视经济的“再实体化”，发展中国家也在不断寻找未来经济的增长点，中国则应当以本次危机为发展机遇，转变粗放型的出口发展方式，加快出口产品结构优化升级，切实提高出口产品国际竞争能力，为在下一轮全球经济增长中占据有利地位奠定基础。根据目前国内外的经济发展形势，系统、规范的研究出口退税政策是促进我国对外贸易发展、减少贸易摩擦、调整出口结构、优化产业结构、改善国民福利的需要。本文以出口退税这一政策工具为分析主线和研究对象，讨论了出口退税政策对出口产品竞争力的影响，广义来看也是对中国对外贸易可持续发展的探讨。文章首先建立不同市场结构下出口退税政策的数理模型，以国民福利最大化为政策目标求得了最优的出口退税率，并从理论上分析了出口退税政策对出口产品竞争力的影响。在此基础上，使用1978-2010年的数据对模型分析得到的结论进行了检验。全文分析共分六章，第一章是导论部分，介绍了论文的写作背景、选题意义、国内外研究现状、研究思路等；第二章至第五章是本文的主体部分，其中第二章在现有研究成果的基础上，对出口退税理论进一步加深认识。从完全竞争市场下贸易大国和贸易小国，以及不完全竞争市场下的古诺竞争和伯川竞争四个角度对出口退税的政策效果进行了分析，讨论了每种情况下出口退税政策对本国出口产品竞争力的影响并从国民福利最大化角度阐述各种市场结构下出口退税政策的合理性，进而明确不同市场结构下政府使用出口退税政策的动机；第三章总结了中国出口退税政策的实践经验，按照国内相关法规的出台时间将出口退税制度分为三个阶段，同时又对法国、德国、韩国等具有代表性的国家的出口退税政策进行了比较分析；第四章是中国出口贸易及出口产品竞争力的基本情况分析，描述了我国进出口商品的贸易规模、贸易方向、出口结构、市场分布，并结合竞争力影响因素，借助相关竞争力指标对中国出口产品的出口竞争优势进行了定量检验，明确了中国出口产品竞争力及国际地位；第五章基于理论分析和经验归纳，综合使用多种计量分析方法评价了出口退税对我国出口产品竞争力的影响；第六章则是本文的主要结论和相关政策建议。通过数理推导和计量经验的分析，本文得出如下结论：理论分析方面，完全竞争市场下贸易小国出口量的变化对世界均衡价格影响较小，因此出口退税政策在提高本国产品出口竞争力的同时通过价格机制所造成的负面效用较低，以国民福利最大化为政策目标的贸易小国可以通过实行出口退税政策提高本国产品竞争能力，进而改善本国福利。但是对于完全竞争市场下的贸易大国来说，出口退税通过价格机制所形成的负面作用将明显提高，贸易大国提高出口退税率将显著提高本国产品出口竞争力，但大量的产品供给到国际市场将使产品的均衡价格下降。因此与贸易小国相比，贸易大国退税的福利作用既包括了本国产品竞争力提升带来的利润增加也包括了世界价格下降给本国企业造成的利润损失，最优的出口退税率将取决于综合作用的正负。在不完全竞争市场下，如果企业之间进行古诺竞争，政府实施出口退税政策能够降低产品的边际成本，提高产品在国际市场上的竞争力，但是出口退税政策对本国福利的影响还受到国际市场消费者需求的约束，政府应结合世界市场的需求特点有针对性的决定是否实行出口退税政策。伯川竞争的结论较为特殊，均衡为角点解，出口退税政策对产品竞争力的影响呈离散分布。实证检验方面，整体来看出口退税对于我国出口贸易的竞争力存在正向作用，提高了出口产品的国际市场占有率，且随着中国出口贸易的不断发展，出口退税对出口产品的竞争力的提升能力不断增强。SITC行业分类检验表明出口退税对行业出口竞争优势的作用在很大程度上取决于出口退税政策的长期取向、产品的要素密集度及市场竞争结构。从产品层面来看，出口退税率下调降低了对应产品的贸易竞争力，且竞争力降低显著，这一结果从反方向证明了理论分析得到的结论，表明出口退税政策对产品的出口竞争力特别是市场竞争激烈的产品有较强的调整作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the economic globalization, the equilibrium of the market is decided byvarious factors of demand and supply. The structural or impacting fluctuations ofthese factors make the world economy show a degree of business cycle. In order tomaintain the steady development of foreign trade, reduce the impact of internationalmarket fluctuations on the domestic economy, the government often adopts policyinstruments to intervene the market equilibrium. The international trade theory andlong-term economic practice provide a number of export-oriented policies formacro-control. However, as the developing of world economic globalization andliberalization, most of these trade-promoted policies are limited by the internationalorganizations. Against this background, the government interferences shift fromdirect intervention to indirect intervention. As one of the indirect intervention, exporttax rebate is highly valued by the governments. At the same time, belonging to the taxsystem and trade system, the export tax rebate system has become an importantcomponent of macro-control in China.From the second half of2008, China’s foreign trade suffered a sharp decline inthe world economic crisis. The import and export exhibited negative growth forseveral months. Particularly, export volume of light industrial products and electronicproducts in which China keeps a long-time international competitive advantagecontinued to decline. In response to the economic crisis, China government employeda variety of positive-control measures synthetically. The export tax rebate rate isincreased for7times from August2008to June2009. The export tax rebate rate ofsome mechanical and electrical products, such as the sewing machine, CRT TV andtelevision transmission equipment, is rose to17%which is almost the level of full taxrebate; the export tax rebate rate of light industrial products, such as textile, clothing,is rose to16%which is one percent less than the maximum refund.China’s economy has recovered from the crisis gradually under the combinedeffect of a variety of macro-control policies. However, in the short-term, the prospect of the European debt crisis is still uncertain; the recovery of the U.S. economyprogresses slowly and the unemployment rate is kept in a high level; the demand ofthe emerging market countries shrinks which is caused by the imported inflationunder the quantitative easing and implicit quantitative easing policies of thedeveloped countries. These factors, superimposing on each other, will form a newround of attacks to China’s export. Meanwhile, in the long-term, experiencing thiscrisis most of the countries begin to reconsider the current pattern of the worldeconomic structure. The developed countries pay more attention to the producingindustries. The developing countries search for a new growth point in the future worldeconomy. Taking this crisis as an opportunity for China should change the extensivemode of export, accelerate optimizing and upgrading export product structure,improve the international competitive advantage of exports effectively, laid a steadyfoundation for the next round of global economy expanding.According to the current situation, a systemic and normative study on the exporttax rebate policy is required by the developing of international trade, the reducing ofthe trade frictions, the adjusting of the export products composition, the optimizing ofthe industrial structure, and the improving of the national welfare. Therefore, takingthe export tax rebate policy as the thread and the subject,this dissertation discussedthe impact of the export tax rebate to the international competitive advantage of theexport products. In a broad sense, this thesis is also an approach to the sustainableeconomic development of China. We build up models for different market structures,and obtain the optimal export tax rebate rate from the aspect of the national welfaremaximization. The impact of the export tax rebate on the international competitiveadvantage is determined on mathematical analysis. Then, the theoretical conclusionsare checked by using the economic data from1978to2010.Our study consists of six chapters: the first chapter is an introduction includingthe writing background, the significance of the topic, the status quo, the researchroute and method. Chapter II to Chapter V is the main part of this research. Based oncurrent research results, the second chapter deepens the theory of the export tax rebate.The effect of export tax rebate policy is analyzed under four aspects that are theminor trading nation in perfect competition, the major trading nation in perfect competition, the Cournot competition and the Bertrand competition. Under eachaspect, the impact of the export tax rebate policy on the international competitiveadvantage is discussed. After that, the rationality of the export tax rebate policy isexpounded from the view to maximize the national welfare. Then the motivation ofthe government using the export tax rebate policy is clarified. The third chaptersummarizes the practical experience of China. According to the issue of the relevantdomestic laws and regulations, the development of the export tax rebate system isdivided into three stages. Meanwhile, the international experiences, such as thepractice of France, Germany, Korea etc., are compared. Chapter IV is a basic analysisof China’s export trade and the international competitive advantage of products. Inthis chapter, the scale of Chinese foreign trade, the trade direction, the exportstructure, the market distribution is described. Further, by using the relevant indexes,the international competitive advantage of Chinese exports is tested quantitatively.Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, we select some proper econometricsmethods. The impact of the export tax rebate on the international competitiveadvantage is measured in Chapter V. Finally, Chapter VI contains the mainconclusions and policy suggestions.We draw following conclusions through the mathematical and empirical analysis:on the theoretical side, the changes in the export of the minor trading nation in perfectcompetition will not influence the world equilibrium price obviously. Thus, when thegovernment uses the export tax rebate policy to promote the international competitiveadvantage of domestic products, the negative effects caused by this policy are low. Bythis reasoning, the minor trading nation can use the export tax rebate policy toenhance the international competitive advantage of domestic products as while asimprove the national welfare. However, the circumstances for the major tradingnation in perfect competition are different. The negative effects caused by the exporttax rebate policy are significantly increasing through the price mechanism. The exporttax rebate policy of a major trading nation will enhance the international competitiveadvantage of domestic products observably. However, the world equilibrium pricewill decrease which is due to the large amount of domestic export products.Compared with the minor trading nation, the effect of the export tax rebate policyconsists of two parts, one is the profit increase caused by the internationalcompetitive advantage enhancing, and the other is profit lost because of equilibriumprice reducing. Thus, the optimal export tax rebate rate depends on the balance ofthese positive and negative effects. In the imperfect competition market, if firms rivalas the model of Cournot competition, the home government could implement theexport tax rebate policy to reduce the marginal cost of production, and improve theinternational competitive advantage of domestic product. Nevertheless, the effects onthe national welfare are also constrained by the property of the demand function. Thehome government should combine with the characteristics of the world demand todecide whether to implement the export tax rebate policy or not.The result of theBertrand competition is special. The equilibrium of the model is a corner solution.The impact of the export tax rebate policy on the international competitive advantageis a discrete distribution.On the empirical side, overall, the impact of the export tax rebate policy on theinternational competitive advantage is positive. The policy could enlarge theinternational market share of domestic products. Meanwhile, the positive effect isenhancing when the export develops. Next, we test the effect of the export tax rebatepolicy by the SITC classification. The influence on the international competitiveadvantage depends on the long-term policy orientation, the factor intensity ofproducts and the market structure. Finally, the effect on the product level is calculated.The international competitive advantage decreases observably when the export taxrebate rate is reduced. This result from the opposite direction proves the conclusion oftheoretical analysis, and exhibits that the impact of the export tax rebate on theinternational competitive advantage is remarkable particularly the perfect competitionmarket.更多还原