【作者】 徐放；

【导师】 刘秉镰；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 区域经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 保险具有风险保障、资金融通和社会管理职能，能够有力促进与保障经济发展。近年来，我国保险业在整体迅速发展的同时，空间分异加剧的态势越发明显，实际上影响了保险产业的持续发展与功能作用的有效发挥。同时，目前关于保险产业理论研究成果不断丰富，而关于保险产业空间问题的学术研究却相对滞后，保险空间分异的理论框架尚处于探索阶段，致使对保险产业分异态势和程度、分异机理、影响因素以及变动趋势的认识不够深入，保险监管的政策设计与空间布局的实践均缺乏理论指导。论文围绕保险产业空间分异问题建立了一个系统的分析框架。首先，从保险产业空间分异的内涵出发，按照保险要素、保险机构、保险业务和保险功能的不同空间属性划分出承载保险业的三类保险区域，按照三类区域、省级区域两个层次，利用空间不平衡指数测度了我国保险产业的分异程度与分异过程。结果表明，二十年来我国保险产业分异呈现阶段性“U”型特征，并在2002年后呈现分异程度加剧的态势。第二，基于市场主体视角构建了保险产业空间分异的FCII模型，分析了保险业垄断竞争、报酬递增、产品要素空间流动等特征，研究了这些特征制约下的保险产业空间分异的形成和演进机制，得出了影响保险产业空间分异的规模经济、空间成本、制度因素和本地市场等“四大影响因素”，以及本地市场及其放大效应、市场拥挤效应“两类动力效应”，据此模拟了保险产业空间分异自我强化的演进路径。第三，在理论研究的基础上，论文利用面板数据回归模型及夏普里值分解法实证检验了“四大影响因素”的作用机理，定量测度了各项因素贡献程度，得出了总体上空间成本和制度因素是导致保险产业空间分异的决定因素，规模递增和本地市场则是重要分异条件的结论。最后，在对“四大影响因素”变动趋势的分析基础上，提出了我国保险产业空间分异的演进趋势，并利用时间序列和H-P滤波模型进行了实证检验，得出了至少在较长时期内空间分异将保持自我强化的研究结论，从而表明威廉姆森倒“U”型曲线揭示的收敛现象在我国保险产业未来一段时期内尚难以出现。论文有以下几个方面的创新：1.论文从保险产业空间分异的区域划分、我国保险产业空间分异程度及过程的定量分析、保险产业空间分异模型及其实证检验的构建三个主要方面入手，搭建起保险空间分异的理论研究框架，尝试拓展了保险学理论的研究视角和研究方法，努力为保险产业持续协调发展及政策研究寻找理论基础。2.论文利用地理经济学思想及自由资本模型，结合保险产业特征，将保险公司逐利而导致的微观接近动机与保险产业宏观空间分异现象有机联系在一起，采用FCII模型系统推导出保险产业空间分异的“四大影响因素”和“两类动力效应”，探索了保险产业空间分异机理研究，系统解释了保险产业空间分异的内在机理与演进路径。3.论文从“三类区域”和“省级区域”两个层次，分别利用衡量经济增长的不平衡指数，测度了近20年来我国保险产业空间分异程度及过程，并利用面板数据、夏普里值分解法实证检验和测算了“四大影响因素”的分异贡献程度，从计量层面分析了引发保险产业空间分异的生成机理，将保险产业分异影响因素研究从分析性描述拓展至计量层面，一定程度上完善了保险空间理论。4.论文对我国保险产业空间分异演进趋势的理论研究及其实证检验，讨论预测了保险产业较长时期的分异趋势，提出了较长时期内我国保险产业难以显现威廉姆森倒“U”型曲线的变动特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 Risk protection, funds facility and social management are the salient features ofinsurance, which could protect economic development strongly. In recent years,increasing trend of rapid developing of Chinese insurance industry as a whole and itsspatial variation is more obvious, actually affect the insurance industry onsustainable development and function effectively. At the same time, the results oftheoretical studies on the insurance industry is constantly enrich, but rarely study thespatial aspects, let alone to establish the theoretical framework of spatial variation,resulting in a very superficial understanding of insurance industry differentiationtrend and extent, fractionation mechanism and influencing factors. Sincerely,insurance regulatory system and the industrial layout is lack of the necessarytheoretical basis.The doctoral dissertation about the insurance industry space differentiationestablished a theoretical analysis framework. Starting from the spatial variation ofthe connotation, according to the different spatial properties of the elements,insurance agencies, insurance business and insurance functions, divide it into threetypes of insurance district. Divided into three categories regional, provincial,regional level, make use of the spatial imbalance index measure the degree andprocess of differentiation. Two decades, the insurance industry differentiationpresented stage characteristic "U" shape and the growing phenomenon of differentdegree of departure, based on the perspective of market players to build a spatialdifferentiation of the insurance industry FCII model, analyze the monopolisticcompetition, increasing returns, the spatial flow of factors or production and otherfeatures, research the formation and evolution mechanism of spatial differentiation,come to the conclusion that economies of scale, space costs, institutional factors andthe local market, as well as the local market and its amplification effect, the marketcrowding effect are two types of different power, simulate numerically the spatialvariation of the insurance industry self-reinforcing changes in the path. On the basisof theoretical studies, we use panel data regression model and the Shapley valuedecomposition to empirical test the four factors and their mechanism, determinatequantitatively the contribution of various factors, come to the conclusion thatinstitutional factors and space costs lead to spatial differentiation, scale incrementand the local market are important conditions. In the end, using time series and theHP filter, empirically analyze the spatial variation trend, conclude thatself-reinforcing of differentiation at least a longer period which verified Williamsinverted U-shaped curve does not exist in a longer period to Chinese insurance industry, contrary to the existing main conclusions.Innovation of the dissertation:First, proceed from region of space from the insurance industry, quantitativeanalysis of the differentiation process and trend, building spatial differentiationmodel and empirical test, build a theoretical research framework, try to expand theperspective and methods of insurance theory, find a theoretical basis for thesustained and coordinated development and policy research to insurance.Second, using geography economic thought and freedom capital model, combinedwith industry features, organically linked the microstructure close to the motivationof profit-driven insurance companies and insurance industry macro spacedifferentiation, establish and use the FCII model system to derive the fourinfluencing factors and two types of differentiation power of the spatial variation,explore the industrial spatial differentiation mechanism, explain the intrinsicmechanism and evolution path, is an useful attempt to expand the space of economictheory to finance and insurance industry.Third, from two levels of the three types of region and provincial areas, usingrespectively imbalance index which could measure economic growth, measure theextent and evolution trend of spatial variation, make use of panel data and theempirical test of the Shapley value decomposition method, estimate thedifferentiation contribution of the four factors, analyze the formation mechanism ofdifferentiation from the measurement level rather than analytical description whichimprove the insurance space theory.Forth, the explanation, research and empirical test, discuss the differentiation trendof the insurance industry in a longer period, put forward that it is difficult to perceivethe changes characteristic of Williams inverted U-shaped curve for Chineseinsurance.更多还原