【作者】 廖勇诚；

【导师】 朱铭来；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 保险学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 中国大陆老龄人口数高达1.2亿，人口老龄化冲击与养老保障将成为中国大陆一大挑战；尤其中国大陆民众所得有限，难以面对人口老龄化之冲击。处于未富先老阶段下，可预见中国大陆民众对于具有退休养老保障功能之个人年金保险商品需求必日益殷切。所幸中国保监会已于2011年5月5日公布变额年金保险之试点办法，开启了年金保险新纪元。然而中国大陆目前仍十分缺乏变额年金保险或利率变动型年金保险之发展经验与实证研究。本研究发现美国、日本、英国与台湾地区之个人年金保险商品种类齐全而且个人年金保险保费规模高，颇受社会大众青睐；也可以发觉个人寿险商品或企业年金保险难以取代个人年金保险商品。再者，本研究以2003～2010年度之月保费数据，透过向量误差修正模型研究台湾地区利率变动型年金保险与变额年金保险初年度保费收入发展之宏观经济影响因素。研究发现利率变动型年金保险保费、变额年金保险保费与宏观经济变量间，确实存在共整合关系，而且利率变动型年金保险保费、变额年金保险保费与宏观经济变量间之长期均衡关系或短期互动关系，存在许多相同点与差异点。本研究将有助于两岸保险主管机关或寿险业者，拟定年金保险监理规范或业务发展之参酌。本文共分为七个章节，第一章主要提出选题背景、文献回顾与研究方法，第二章则探讨个人年金保险需求之理论基础与论述个人年金保险商品对于国家之正面功能。第三章针对台湾地区个人年金保险之商品特质与规范进行研究，以便于中国大陆的产官学界更进一步了解台湾地区个人年金保险之发展背景与经验。第四章针对美国、日本、英国与台湾地区个人年金保险商品之保费趋势与发展概况研究，可进一步供中国大陆年金保险发展的借鉴。第五章内容为台湾地区个人年金保险保费与宏观经济变量间之实证研究。长期均衡关系方面，本研究发现存款余额与变额年金保险保费或利率变动型年金保险保费皆呈现正向关系。此外，股价指数与变额年金保险保费呈现正向关系；但与利率变动型年金保险保费呈现负向关系。另外，通货膨胀率、定存利率与汇率，与变额年金保险保费呈现负向关系；但与利率变动型年金保险保费呈现正向关系。短期互动关系方面，本研究发现利率变动型年金保险保费成长率与各宏观经济变量之短期互动关系间，主要呈现正向关系；但变额年金保险保费成长率与各宏观经济变量之短期互动关系间，主要呈现负向关系。第六章则进一步针对两岸的年金保险商品特质与规范现况进一步比较分析，并进一步依据台湾经验与主要国家经验，提出对于中国大陆个人年金保险发展之借鉴与建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are over120million elderly citizens in China’s mainland. This aging population has a significant impact making retirement protection a great challenge for China’s mainland. The national income level is still not high enough to meet the needs of the aging population in China. The demographic situation combined with the low-income environment leads us to forecast that people will have a higher and higher demand for individual annuity products. Fortunately, The China Insurance regulator has published a variable annuity guideline meaning China has entered into a new annuity insurance era. As of yet, there is very limited experiences and empirical data on variable annuity and interest-sensitive annuities in China.The study finds that the entire range of annuity products with higher premiums share exist in the United States, Japan, United Kingdom and Taiwan. Moreover, the study concludes that individual annuity is popular and important to clients and so cannot be replaced with individual life or enterprise annuity products.The Taiwan empirical study focused on the impact of macroeconomic variables on individual annuity insurance premiums using the vector error-correction model monthly figures from2003to2010. The study finds that a long-term cointegration relationship exists between macroeconomic variables and individual annuity insurance premiums in Taiwan. Furthermore, the study finds that there are some similarities and differences between variable annuities and interest-sensitive annuities in long-term and short-term relationships. The study is helpful for developing annuity product regulation or business by the Insurance Bureau or Life insurers across the Taiwan straits.The essay is composed of seven chapters. Chapter I describes the background, literature review and the research methods of this study. Chapter II covers the theory of individual annuity insurance demands and a commentary on the positive function of annuity insurance for the country. Chapter III focuses on the product features and main regulations for individual annuities in Taiwan. It is intended to give insight into the background and development of individual annuity in Taiwan. Chapter IV describes the premium trend and development of annuity insurance in the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and Taiwan.Chapter V is the empirical study of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and individual annuity insurance premiums in Taiwan. For the long-term equilibrium relationship, the study finds the following results:1. There is a positive relationship between bank deposits balance and the premium of variable annuity and interest-sensitive annuity. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between the stock index and the premium of variable annuities. However, there is a negative relationship between the stock index and the premium of interest-sensitive annuities.2. There is a positive relationship for inflation rate, interest rate of time deposit, exchange rate and premium of interest-sensitive annuity; however, there is a negative relationship with the premium of variable annuities.The study finds the following results for short-term relationships. There mainly exists a positive relationship between macroeconomic variables and interest-sensitive annuity; however there is a predominantly negative relationship between macroeconomic variables and variable annuity. Chapter VI includes the comparative study of annuity product features and regulations across Taiwan straits and ends with some suggestions for China’s reference.更多还原