【作者】 孙红霞；

【导师】 陶江；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 金融学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着虚拟经济不断发展，金融产品交易日趋频繁，货币分流于实体经济和虚拟经济的趋势日渐明显，促使其交易媒介职能不再仅仅局限于实体部门，而是越来越多地向虚拟部门偏移，形成广为人知的两大货币交易速度并存、互动格局。这一经济现象，不仅为我们从事理论研究提供了崭新的宏观视角，也为我们试行微观基础议题拓展了广阔空间。寻求货币交易速度运行的微观基础，是当代货币理论研究的前沿课题。居民是宏观经济的重要微观主体，对其行为的研究有助于深入理解货币速度运行规律、趋势走向，进而为科学制定及实施宏观经济政策提供重要指南。具体来讲，居民消费行为直接关乎实体经济货币—商品交易动向，从而影响该领域内交易速度运势和规律，而投资行为又与虚拟经济货币—资产交易关联密切。一方面投资行为制约着资产价格的起伏波动，另一方面左右着虚拟经济交易速度的变动轨迹。可见，居民的行为选择对货币交易速度的形成和运行起着关键作用。诚然，由于两部门经济的特有属性及其内在联系，货币交易速度在其内表现出趋同性和异质性的矛盾统一。鉴于此，我们在实体经济和虚拟经济框架下，以居民消费投资行为为起点，研究货币交易速度问题就具备了微观现实依据。本文分析步骤如下：首先，构建两大经济体系的简易交易模型，从中找出既能契合微观交易行为特征，又能真实反映速度变动规律的货币交易速度表达式。随后使用数理求导等经济学分析工具，刻画交易速度与货币支付变量之间的逻辑关系，并运用包络定理绘制交易速度趋势图，形象描绘速度本身及其两大经济货币速度之间的互动关系。需要说明的是，这里采用了封闭式理想状态条件下的模型构建方法，它不同于传统货币理论中的函数方程解析思路，虽然与现实经济有一定距离，但是将模型诸多条件予以适度放松，便可以从中探求影响速度运行的各种瓶颈，包括主体行为的微观因素和制度环境的客观因素。这对于指导后续科研大有裨益。其次，运用动态规划理论、跨期消费理论来探求居民最优消费、最优投资的生成机制，试图从中寻求微观主体因素对消费—投资行为的作用方式，并以货币支付为起点，以消费者行为选择为桥梁，逐步进行逻辑演绎，推导出货币交易速度的微观影响机理。再次，结合我国的具体国情，根据宏观经济发展的不同阶段，居民行为参数（主观贴现、风险偏好、心理预期等）表现的不同特征，研究特定历史时期条件下货币交易速度的长期趋势和短期波动。并采用边界协整检验等方法，实证考察我国居民的风险厌恶水平、主观贴现率、信心指数等对交易速度的影响力度，为下一步制定和实施有效的货币政策提供重要的参考价值。本文写作旨在探索货币交易速度的运行规律及其微观影响机理，侧重于理论模型构建和实证数据检验。由于历史统计资料有限，对我国货币交易速度的经验分析不足（仅就改革开放以后的交易速度问题进行了相关探讨）。除此之外，本文研究没有涉及企业、政府、金融机构等微观主体的行为选择，这也是未来我们所要努力的方向，希冀为货币交易速度的宏观经济分析奠定坚实的理论基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the development of virtual economy, financial products are tradingmore and more frequently. The trend of the money diverted into real economy andvirtual economy has been greatly obvious which prompts the medium of exchangefunction transferring to virtual department from entity department and forms theinteraction pattern of well known two velocity of money. This economic phenomenonnot only provides a new macro perspective to research but also extends a vast spacefor us building on microeconomic foundation.Seeking the micro foundation of velocity movement is an advanced topic inmonetary theory currently. Residents are important microscopic main bodies inmacro-economy. Thus, the research on residents’ behavior will help us to understandthe movement law and direction of the velocity of money. In turn, the finding may bepossible to provide importance guide towards the macroeconomic policy which isdrafted and enforced. Specifically, consumer behavior is directly related tocurrency-commodities trading in real economy and influences on the law of velocityin this field. Meanwhile, the investment behavior is association with currency-assetstransaction in virtual economy. Because it not only restricts the asset price fluctuationbut also controls the velocity’s track in the virtual economy. Therefore, peoples’behavior choice plays a key role on velocity’s formation and movement. Indeed, sincethe two departments have their own specific attribute and there are relationshipsbetween them, two kinds of velocity of money show convergence and heterogeneousin contradictory and unified manner more or less.In view of this, we are engaged in the velocity of money base onconsumer-investment behavior in the real economy and virtual economy frameworkwill have microscopic realistic meaning. This paper’s procedure is as follows:First of all, we constructed two big economic system of simple trading model inorder to find out velocity expression Equation which can correspond to micro trading behavior characteristics and reflect the law of velocity truly. Then we usemathematical derivation and economic analysis tools to depict logical relationshipbetween trading velocity and spending money. Meanwhile, we adopted the envelopetheorem to draw trend diagram of velocity of money which described velocity andtransaction between two velocities. It should be noted that this paper is built on idealand enclosed environment which is different from traditional theory using functionequation to analyze problems. Although there are some distances between theory andreality, we could relax many conditions properly then discuss kinds of factors existedin the rule of velocity from model such as individual subject factors and institutionalenvironment factors and so on. It is helpful to guide the scientific research greatly.Second, we used the Dynamical programming theory, the cross timeconsumption theory to explore the mechanism of the optimal consumption-investment of residents for seeking microcosmic factors on consumption-investmentbehavior of the manner of action. And we conducted the logical syllogism anddeduced the micro influence mechanism of velocity from spending money andconsumer behavior choice as tie.Furthermore, this paper studied long-term trend and short-term fluctuation of thevelocity of money according to different performance (subjective discount, riskpreference, expectations, etc.)displayed from residents behavioral parameters in thespecific historical stage of economic development, and we carried out the EmpiricalTest by the method of the Bounds co-integration test to investigate influence betweenrisk aversion, subjective rate of discount, confidence index and traction velocity ofmoney. We believe that this paper will be incredibly useful handbook for developingand implementing effective monetary policy in the next step.This paper aims to explore the movement law of traction velocity and themicroscopic influence mechanism. It mainly focuses on the theoretical model andempirical test. Because of lack of data resource, it is only after Reform and Openingup that discussed in this paper. Therefore, it led to insufficient analysis in someextend. In addition, this paper has not been involved in the behavior choice ofenterprise, government, financial institutions. This field is the future that we want to explore and we wish that this paper will lay solid theoretical basis for research onmacroeconomic analysis of the traction velocity of money.更多还原