【作者】 李程；

【导师】 逄锦聚；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 经济发展方式转变已经成为我国国民经济长时期发展的主线，实现经济发展方式转变包括企业、产业和国民收入三个层次，即企业的要素投入结构、产业结构和内需结构的优化。在发展方式转变的过程中，伴随着经济体制各个方面的改革和完善，金融体系的健全居于核心位置，而利率市场化是金融体系改革中的重要一环。我国的利率市场化改革取得了很大进展，但目前仍然处于“双轨制”中，利率管制以及持续的低利率使得我国资本要素价格被扭曲，对我国经济造成了诸多不利影响。因此，本文拟从理论和实证方面对利率市场化与经济发展方式转变的关系进行研究，揭示利率对经济发展的传导机制，为我国成功进行经济转型提供参考。首先，针对我国利率市场化中存在的问题，本文对当前利率状态进行了分析，基于生产函数对我国资本的租金成本和使用成本进行了估算，实证表明利率水平被低估，阐明了这种低利率会造成资本要素价格的扭曲。同时借鉴国外的经验，对利率市场化改革的风险进行了研究，认为银行业的转型是利率市场化成功实施的保障。其次，从货币政策传导机制出发，研究了利率作用于经济发展的具体方式和机制，表明利率市场化通过对银行利差的影响，以信贷投放为纽带，使得经济体系各个层面发生变化。从理论上论证了利率市场化对我国流动过剩、经济结构和经济效率的作用机制，认为利率市场化能够通过银行利差变化来缓解流动性过剩局面；平衡实体经济和虚拟经济，防止经济过度金融化；改善银行信贷配给，增强对中小企业资金支持，并有助于正规金融和非正规金融市场之间的协调发展。再次，根据以上的理论分析，从实证角度分别验证了利率变化对企业要素投入结构、产业结构和内需结构的影响。企业要素投入结构方面，打破贷款利率下限，通过贷款利率下浮使得中小企业资金成本降低，有助于企业创新效率提高，而创新效率提高则有助于企业要素投入结构的优化；产业结构方面，贷款利率上升有利于银行加大对高效率产业的贷款支持，有利于提升产业资本配置效率，进而使得产业结构不断升级；内需结构方面，存款利率的提高能够纠正低利率带来的资源配置的扭曲，使得消费和资本形成增加，使得外汇储备激增的局面被有效控制，缓解内外失衡的局面，同时贷款利率提高可以提高投资效率。结构与效率的变化是同步进行的，在结构转换的过程中，伴随着资本配置效率的提高，利率通过对效率和结构的双重作用来促进经济发展方式转变。最后，由前面的理论分析和实证结论，提出了我国利率市场化改革方向，认为在低利率的背景下，放开存款利率上限，使得存款利率提高，并放开贷款利率下限，实现贷款的差别化定价是利率市场化的应有之义。同时也指出，利率市场化不等于简单的加息或减息，而是包含政府有效管理、银行改革和规范民间金融等一系列配套体制的完善，使我国利率市场化能够平稳健康的进行，为我国经济发展方式转变提供有效的微观基础。围绕利率改革与经济发展方式转变的关系，从企业、产业和国民收入等角度展开论述是本文的主题，围绕这一主题，本文拟实现的创新有：第一，对利率失衡进行定量的分析，分析了利率低估对资本要素价格扭曲的影响；第二，借鉴金融窖藏理论，结合我国的经济金融化现实情况，认为利率市场化有助于资金向实体经济回流，有利于经济结构和经济发展方式的转变；第三，借鉴信贷配给理论，结合我国的分割经济特征，研究了利率市场化对经济效率提升，进而对经济发展方式转变的促进作用；第四，研究了利率市场化对化解货币政策两难困境的作用，认为利率市场化有利于经济增长和减轻通货膨胀压力，从而有利于于经济发展方式转变；第五，提出利率市场化改革的方向是存款利率的提高和贷款利率的差别化，并在利率改革的同时辅之以经济体制的完善。更多还原

【Abstract】 Now in China, to accelerate transformation of the mode of economicdevelop-menthas become one of our long-term strategy, this strategy includes three levels ofbusiness, industry and national income, includes the optimization of the structure ofthe enterprise elements, industrial structure and the structure of national income. Inthis development mode transformation, along with the perfection of the economicsystem, the soundness of the financial system is in the core position, while the interestrate marketization is an important part of the financial system reform, China’smarket-oriented interest rate reform has made very big progress, but is still in the"dual system".The control of interest rates and continued low interest ratemakeChina’s capital factor prices to be distorted, causing many adverse effects on oureconomy. Therefore, this paper hope to study the relationship between the interestrate marketization and the economic development mode transformationbased on thetheoretical and empirical research, to reveal the interest rate transmission mechanismto economic development, and provide a reference for China’s successful economictransition.First of all, for the problems in China’s interest rate market, on the state of the currentinterest rate analysis, based on the production function, this paper estimatesthe rentalcost and running cost of China’s capital. The evidence shows that the level of interestrates is undervalued, stating such a low interest rate will result in distor-tions of thecapital factor prices. Usingthe experience of other countries for reference, this paperstudies the risk of interest rate reform and considers that the transformation of thebusinessbank is the effective safeguards of the implementation of the interest ratemarketization.Second, based on the theory of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, thispaper studies the role of interest rates in the economic development that by means ofbank spreads and credit, the marketization of interest rates affects the economicsystem at all levels of change. The mechanism of the interest rate market-orientedreform to excess liquidity, economic structure and economicefficiency is theore-tically proved that the interest rate market canalleviate thesituation of excess liqui-dity by means of the change of bank spreads, can balance thereal economy and virtual economy to prevent the economy from excessivefinancializationand can optimize bank credit rationing, increase their financial supportto SMEs and contri-bute to the development of coordination between the formalfinancial and non-formal financial markets.Then,according to the above theoretical analysis, from an empirical point of view, thispaper verifiesthe impact of interest rate changes on the input structure, industrialstructure and the national income structure. In the aspect of elements of the enterpriseinto the structure, after breaking the lower limit of lending rates, downward floatofthe lending rate can reduce the cost of capital for SMEs, which can help improve theefficiency of enterprise innovation, which can help business inputs to the optimizationof the structure; in the aspect of industrial structure, the increase of loan interest rateswill make the banks to increase credit support for high-efficiency industry, which canhelp enhance the industrial efficiency of capital allocation, thereby making continueto upgrade the industrial structure; in the aspect of structure of national income, theincrease of deposit interest rates can correct the distortions of the allocation of re-sources caused by low interest rates, that consumption and capital formation will in-crease, the situation of foreign exchange reserves will be surged to effective control,the situation of internal and external imbalances will be eased, while the increase ofloan interest rates can improve the efficiency of investment. Changes in the structureand efficiency are carried out simultaneously.In the process of structural transfor-mation, along with the improvement of the efficiency of capital allocation, interestrate play dual roleon the efficiency and structure to promote the transformation ofeconomic development pattern.Finally, by the previous theoretical analysis and empirical findings, in the con-text of low interest rates China’s market-oriented interest rate reform direction is thatthe liberalization of deposit interest rate ceiling to make the deposit rate to raise, andthe release of the loan interest rate floor to achieve loans differences of pricing are theproper meanings of the interest rate marketization. This paper also points out that the interest rate marketization is not equal to the hike or cut of interest rates, but containsthe government effective management, banking reform and standardization of thenon-formalfinancial market etc. related financial supporting system improvement.China’s marketization of interest rates can provide an effective micro-foundation tothe smooth and healthy transformation of China’s economic development mode.Around the interest rate reform and economic development mode shift, discus-sing from the perspective of the enterprise, industry and national income is the subjectof this article.On this theme, this article intends to achieve the innovation fromseveral aspects: first,by means of quantitative research of interest rate imbalancethispaper analyzesthe impact of interest rates underestimate on the capital factor pricedistortions; second, drawing on the financial cellars theory, combined with China’seconomic and financial realities, this papershows that the interest rate marketizationcan help funds return to the real economy and is conducive to the optimization of theeconomic structure and the transformation of economic development mode; third,drawing lessons from the theory of credit rationing, combined with thesplit-economic characteristics of China, this paper analyzes the role of the interestrate marketizationin promoting to enhance economic efficiency and accelarate theeconomic development mode shift; Fourth, this paper studies how the interest ratemarketization resolves the dilemma of monetary policy, that the interest rate mar-ketization is conducive to economic growth and reduces inflationary pressures, thusdo favor to the economic development mode shift; Fifth, the proposed direction of themarket-oriented interest rate reform is the improvement of deposit rates and thediferentiation of lending rates, andthe interest rate reform should be complemented bythe improvement of the economic systemat the same time.更多还原