【作者】 王丽萍；

【导师】 刘刚；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 本文从经济增长源泉的角度，研究了我国的经济增长模式。结果表明，我国经济增长依然是资本驱动型增长模式，全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献率偏低，中国经济增长模式本质上属于要素驱动型增长。文中使用1978-2010年的数据，通过总量生产函数，测算了我国的全要素生产率及其变动率。结果表明，1978-1985年间，全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献率为3.25%，1986-1994年间该贡献率上升为5.91%，1994年以后全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献率为负值，总体上拉低了1978-2010年间我国全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献率。上世纪90年代以后，我国经济快速增长的同时，储蓄率不断上升，为投资的扩张提供了充足的前提条件。同时，我国凭借廉价的劳动力优势和巨大的市场优势吸引了大量外国直接投资，成为世界产品的集散地和组装中心。另外，1996年高等教育的产业化使得我国在增加人力资本的同时，也投入了大量的资本。这些都使得经济增长越来越多地依靠资本而不是技术进步。为了实现经济增长模式从要素驱动转向创新驱动，提高全要素生产率及其对经济增长的贡献率十分关键。同时，本文对我国三次产业的全要素生产率分别进行了估算，结果表明：1978-2010年间我国第一产业的全要素生产率对增长的贡献率平均为16.47%，而资本的平均贡献率为83.65%；第二产业的全要素生产率平均贡献率在1878-2010年间平均为22.81%，资本贡献率为59.88%；第三产业全要素生产率在1978-2010年间对增长的平均贡献率为负，约为-5.26%。我国三次产业均为要素驱动型增长模式，其中第二产业的全要素生产率贡献率最高，第一产业次之，第三产业的全要素生产率贡献率最低。这说明，我国第二产业全要素生产率贡献率稍高，有可能率先实现从要素驱动增长向创新驱动增长的转变；第一产业和第三产业的增长中，技术进步作用较低，这两个产业仍有较大的增长空间和潜力，特别是第三产业。当前我国国内面临着资源和环境约束以及劳动力约束，国内消费不足，加上外部市场受国际金融危机的影响，贸易摩擦频发，这些使得我国国内投资和出口增长受到了冲击和影响。原有的经济增长模式难以为继，我国经济增长模式不得不转向创新驱动型增长模式。本文接下来从全要素生产率角度分析了决定和影响经济增长模式的原因，考察了决定和影响全要素生产率的因素：国内的人力资本、研发投入、产业结构、金融深化、所有制结构、技术转移和市场集中度，来自国外的国际技术溢出。文中使用1990-2010年间的数据，用SPSS软件进行了岭回归分析和主成分分析，结果表明：外商直接投资、出口和第二产业的增长有力地促进了全要素生产率的提高；而人力资本、自主研发投入、进口、金融深化、全国固定资产投资资金中的国家预算资金、技术转移和市场竞争对全要素生产率有负影响。在此基础上，本文提出了提高全要素生产率、转变经济增长模式的机制和政策建议。转变经济增长模式的机制主要是要激发技术创业活动。技术创业活动能通过资源配置效应和激励效应，进一步加强企业、大学和科研机构与政府之间的联系，促进技术向现实生产能力的转化，从而提高技术进步对经济增长的贡献。政策建议方面，构建自主创新体系是当前的主要对策，要通过财政政策、税收政策、金融政策、政府采购等方面的结合来实现。此外，提高教育质量增加人力资本，改变产业结构，大力发展中小企业，转变政府职能对转变经济增长模式也很关键。当前，对我国而言，提高全要素生产率、转变经济增长模式的现实选择是大力发展战略性新兴产业，并给出了促进战略性新兴产业发展的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This dissertation studies China’s economic growth mode from the perspective ofeconomic growth source. The results show that China’s economic growth is stillcapital-driven mode, and the contribution rate of total factor productivity to economicgrowth is low. China’s economic growth mode is factor-driven growth essentially.This dissertation uses the data of1978-2010to estimate China’s total factorproductivity and its rate of change in the aggregate production function. From1978to1985, the contribution rate of total factor productivity to economic growth was3.25percent; from1986to1994, the contribution rate rose to5.91percent; after1994totalfactor productivity was a negative contribution to economic growth, on the wholereducing China’s total factor productivity contribution during the years of1978-2010.After the1990s, the savings rate rising with China’s rapid economic growth, providesa sufficient prerequisite for the expansion of investment. At the same time, Chinaattracts a large sum of foreign direct investment with cheap labor advantage and ahuge market advantage, and becomes the world’s product distribution center andassembly center. In addition, with the industrialization of China’s higher educationfrom1996, while human capital increased, a lot of capital was also put in. Thesecause China’s economic growth more and more relying on capital rather thantechnological progress. Therefore, to improve the total factor productivity and itscontribution to economic growth rate is the key to transforming economic growthmode from factor-driven to innovation-driven.This dissertation also estimates total factor productivity of three industries inChina, and the results show that the contribution rate of TFP to China’s first industrygrowth is an average of16.47%from1978to2010, while the average contributionrate of capital was83.65%; the second industry TFP average contribution rate in theyears of1878-2010is an average of22.81%, capital contribution rate of59.88%; theaverage contribution rate of TFP to the third industry in the years of1978-2010isnegative, about-5.26%. Three industries in China are factor-driven growth mode;contribution rate of TFP in the second industry is the highest, followed by primary industry, tertiary industry, the lowest contribution rate. This shows that contributionrate of China’s TFP in the second industry is higher, and perhaps the second industrywill beceome the first one to achieve the transformation of factor-driven growth toinnovation-driven growth; in the growth of the primary industry and tertiary industry,technological progress contributes lower, and there are still a large room for growthand potential, especially for the tertiary industry.Facing domestic resource and environmental constraints and labor constraints,lack of domestic consumption, coupled with the external market by the internationalfinancial crisis, frequent trade friction, which makes China’s domestic investment andexport growth has been on the impact. The original mode of economic growth isunsustainable, and China has to turn to innovation-driven growth mode.The following section examines the determinants and factors that affect totalfactor productivity: the country’s human capital, R&D investment, industrial structure,financial deepening, the ownership structure, technology transfering and marketconcentration, the international technology spillovers from abroad. The dissertationuses data of1990to2010to make a ridge regression analysis and principalcomponent analysis by SPSS software. The results show that: the growth of foreigndirect investment, exports and secondary industry promotes the improvement of totalfactor productivity; human capital, independent research and development investment,imports, financial deepening, state budget funds in the fixed asset investment funds,technology transfering and market competition have a negative impact on TFP.On the basis of above, the dissertation proposes the mechanism and policyrecommendations of improving total factor productivity and transforming economicgrowth mode from factor-driven to innovation-driven. The mechanism is to stimulatetechnology entrepreneurship. Through resource allocation effect and the incentiveeffects, technology entrepreneurial activities will further strengthening the linksbetween companies, universities and research institutions and governments, andpromote the transformation of technology into practical production capacity, therebyenhancing the contribution of technological progress to economic growth. Policyrecommendations as follows: to build the innovation system is the current mainmeasures, with the combination of fiscal policy, tax policy, monetary policy and government procurement. In addition, it is also critical for transformation ofeconomic growth mode to improve the quality of education to increase human capital,to change the industrial structure, to vigorously develop small and mediumenterprises, to transform government’s functions. At present, the practical choice is todevelop strategic emerging industries, and gives preferential policies to promote rapiddevelopment of strategic emerging industries.更多还原