【作者】 马龙；

【导师】 戴相龙； 马君潞；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 金融学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 21世纪以来，我国先后发生了三轮通货膨胀，引起了社会各界的广泛关注，学术界对通货膨胀问题也进行了大量的研究，对于通货膨胀的认识也不断多元化，在传统货币主义和菲利普斯曲线分析的基础上衍生出了国际大宗价格输入、通胀预期和劳动成本上升等多种通货膨胀成因的分析。对通货膨胀成因的界定、通胀成因是否发生了变迁等问题是相关研究的核心关注点。2000年以来，中国经济最大的变化就是对外开放程度大幅提升，这不但带来了经济的持续快速增长，也带来了输入性通货膨胀问题，而且加快了城乡转移和刘易斯拐点的出现。而正是刘易斯拐点的出现使巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应在中国开始发挥效力，在名义汇率并未充分浮动的背景下，实际汇率的升值压力转化为通货膨胀压力，并使通货膨胀的结构性特征加剧，农产品价格的涨幅明显超越服务类和工业品价格，是推动整体通胀上升的主要动力。本论文以最近十年中国通货膨胀的成因及其变迁为研究对象，在对过往通货膨胀研究和通货膨胀理论的发展路径进行梳理的基础上，从中国经济对外开放度提升、带来刘易斯拐点出现并推动通胀上升的角度，进行了系统而全面的研究。为了突出通货膨胀成因的变迁和对以往研究的承上启下，本论文首先对过往通货膨胀成因的研究进行全面的归纳和总结，并对相关结论、研究方法、理论模型和实证数据等问题进行了详尽和缜密的梳理与比较。其次本论文将各种通货膨胀成因置于同一模型中进行综合性检验，以找出具有显著解释能力的变量。本文首先系统的计算了货币成因变量，在重新核算广义货币供给之后，又通过分析流动性需求计算流动性过剩系数。此后又选取了总需求、输入性通胀、劳动力成本和通胀预期等成因理论的代表性变量，并将它们置于扩展菲利普斯曲线模型中，采用分布滞后模型的方式进行回归分析。随后我们采用SVAR模型来分析变量间相互的动态联系，以验证菲利普斯模型的回归结果，并借助结构性脉冲响应和方差分解等分析方法，来揭示各种成因对通货膨胀的影响程度。综合两种实证检验的结果，2000年以来随着我国对外开放度的提升，通货膨胀的成因发生了变迁，以往的经济过热和货币超发对通胀的影响逐渐减弱，而国际工业品价格输入和农民工工资上涨成为对通胀有显著影响的成因，并且对通胀变化的解释比例更高。再次，本论文对农民工工资上涨推升通货膨胀这一成因进行了更加深入的研究。通过观察东亚国家的历史经验，作者认为对外开放程度的提升，带来城乡转移加速导致刘易斯拐点出现，并使巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效用逐渐生效是农民工工资推升通胀的理论基础和传导渠道。作者在日本学者Minami提出的5个判定准则的基础上，进行了修正和扩展，提出了本文判定中国经济何时跨越刘易斯第一拐点的5个准则。根据实证结果本论文认为中国经济在2004年左右越过了刘易斯第一拐点，但没有充分的证据说明中国经济接近或达到了刘易斯第二拐点。最后，本论文以巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应为理论基础，将二元经济理论引入Rogoff模型，将农业部门单独考虑，并去除了各部门工资相等的假定，创新性的以刘易斯第一拐点为界分别推导了劳动力过剩阶段和劳动力短缺阶段的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森模型。在名义汇率并未充分浮动的背景下我们忽略国外部门，即实际汇率的升值压力主要体现为本国的通胀压力。之后对两阶段模型分别进行验证，结果表明在1991-2003年的劳动力过剩阶段，巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应在我国并未完全体现，工业部门相对农业部门劳动生产率的提升对通货膨胀有一定的推动作用，但可贸易的工业部门相对不可贸易的服务业部门劳动生产率的提升对通胀没有影响。而在2005-2010年的劳动力短缺阶段，巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应开始发挥作用，农业劳动生产率、工业部门相对农业部门劳动生产率的提升都对通胀具有显著的推动作用。最后我们简单阐述了上述现象的传导机制，即一国走过刘易斯第一拐点之后，最重要的特征就是农业部门的工资水平开始由农业劳动生产率决定，这与工业部门的工资决定机制趋于一致，这一转变带来了部门工资开始趋同，并带来劳动生产率较低的农业部门（不可贸易部门）产品价格相对于劳动生产率较高的工业部门（可贸易部门）产品价格提升，最终推动整体通货膨胀水平的上升。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the21st century, China has experienced inflation for three times, causingthe widespread concern of all sectors of society. Scholars also did a lot of researchon inflation, result in an increasingly diverse understanding. Based on the traditionalmonetarist and Phillips curve, a lot of analysis on causes of inflation is derived, suchas international price input, inflation expectations and increasing labor costs. Theconcerned research is focus on definition and change of the causes of inflation. Since2000, the largest change in China’s economy is the degree of openness has beenincreased dramatically, which not only brought a sustained and rapid economicgrowth, but also brings the input-inflation, accelerated the emergence of urban-ruraltransformation and the Lewis turning point. It is just the Lewis turning point, whichmakes the Balassa-Samuelson effect begin to be effective in China. In the contextof the nominal exchange rate not fully floating, the real exchange rate appreciationpressures translate into inflationary pressures, at the same time, the structuralcharacteristics of and inflation aggravates. The increase of agricultural-goods pricessurpasses the service and industrial-goods prices significantly, which is the mainforce to improve inflation level. This thesis is to study the causes of inflation and itschanges in the last decade, to make a systematic and comprehensive study on thebasis of sorting out the development path of past inflation and inflation theory, and inview of upgraded China’s economic openness, the emergence of Lewis turning pointand the promotion of inflation.In order to highlight the causes of inflation changes and the previous studies, thispaper firstly summarizes researches on the causes of past inflation comprehensively,and combines the conclusions, research methods theoretical models and empiricaldata detailedly and carefully.Secondly, this paper will be a comprehensive test of the causes of a variety ofinflation in the same model to identify variables with significant explanatory power.This article first systematically calculated the monetary-cause variables, after the recalculation of broad money supply, calculated liquidity-excess factor through theanalysis of the liquidity needs. And then the author selected total demand, inputinflation, labor costs and inflation expectations variables and place them in theextended Phillips curve model to make a regression analysis by the distributed lagmodel. After that, the author use the SVAR model to analyze the mutual dynamicrelationship between variables to verify the regression results of Phillips model, andto reveal the extent of the impact of the various causes of inflation with the structuralimpulse response and variance decomposition analysis method. Combining twokinds of empirical test results, with the degree of improvement of China’s opening tothe outside world since2000, the causes of inflation changed. The impact fromover-heated economy and over-issued currency is decreasing, instead, the input priceof the international industrial goods and the rise of migrant workers’ wages become asignificant impact on the causes of inflation and explain the higher proportion ofinflation changes.Again, the paper did a deeply research on how the rising wages for migrantworkers push up inflation. By observing the historical experience of East Asiancountries, the authors suggest that the upgrading of opening up will bring theacceleration of urban and rural transfer and lead to the emergence of Lewis turningpoint, which makes Balassa-Samuelson utility effect gradually. This is the theoreticalbasis and conduction channels for wages of migrant workers to push up inflation.The author modified and extended the five criteria proposed by Minami, a Japanesescholar, and proposed the five criteria to determine when the Chinese economy comeacross the first inflection point of Lewis. Based on the empirical results, this thesisconcluded that Chinese economy have come cross the fist Lewis turning point inaround2004, but there is no sufficient evidence that the Chinese economy is close toor reach the second turning point of the Lewis.Finally, this paper regarded the Balassa-Samuelson effect as a theoretical basis,introduced the dual economy theory into Rogoff model, considered the agriculturalsector separately, deleted the assumption of equal wages in various departments, andthen calculated the surplus labor phase and labor shortages phase of theBalassa-Samuelson model with the first turning point of the Lewis as a boundary for the first time. The author ignored the foreign sector in the context that the nominalexchange rate is not fully floatable, that is the real exchange rate appreciationpressures mainly reflected as the domestic inflationary pressures. After that, thetwo-stage model was verified separately, the results show that the labor surplusphase during the1991-2003, the Balassa-Samuelson effect in our country was notfully reflected. The increased labor productivity of industrial sector, relative to theagricultural sector, promoted the inflation to a certain extent, but this is not truewhen considered the increased labor productivity of tradable industrial sector,relative to the non-tradable service sector. During the labor shortage stage, from2005to2010, Balassa-Samuelson effect began to play a role. It is the increase ofproductivity of the agricultural sector and the industrial sector relative to theagricultural sector that have a significant role in promoting inflation. In the end, theauthor briefly discusses the conduction mechanism of the phenomena above, namelythe most important feature is that the wage-level of the agricultural sector begins tobe decided by the agricultural labor productivity, after the country go through thefirst Lewis turning point, which is consistent with the industrial sector wagedetermination mechanism. This transition leads the wages between different sectorsto converge and the price of agricultural sector (non-tradable sector) with lowerlabor productivity to rise, relative to the price of industrial sectors (tradable sector)with higher labor productivity, which ultimately pushes the overall inflation level.更多还原