【作者】 白战伟；

【导师】 逄锦聚；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 作为一个具有二元经济结构的国家，我国经济增长经历着一个典型的劳动力无限供给下的经济发展路径。大量的农村剩余劳动力源源不断地向以城市工业、服务业和乡镇企业为主的现代经济部门流动，促进了现代经济部门资本的不断积累和产值的持续增长，现代部门的不断扩张又吸引着更多的农村剩余劳动力向现代部门的转移。正当我国经济按照这条发展路径继续前行时，“民工荒”的持续发生和波及范围的越来越广，引发了关于“刘易斯转折点”的热烈讨论。与此同时，促进我国经济发展方式转变成为我国经济全面协调可持续发展所面对的主要任务。对我国农村剩余劳动力数量的判断是目前我国学术界判断“刘易斯转折点”的主要依据，但是，现有的测度方法和数据方面的差异导致了农村剩余劳动力数量的测算结果存在着巨大差异，单纯以此为依据对我国的经济发展阶段做出判断缺乏足够的基础。本文通过对刘易斯二元经济模型及其扩展模型的全面审视，发现“刘易斯转折点”应该是被广泛介绍的费景汉和拉尼斯模型中的“商业化点”；“刘易斯转折点”的判断标准应该是传统部门中劳动力的边际生产力和其收入的关系。据此，运用计量模型进行实证分析后我们发现，我国农业劳动力的边际生产力与平均收入水平之间还存在着较大的差距，我国尚未到达“刘易斯转折点”，仍处于二元经济发展阶段。“民工荒”反映了农民工的工资水平上升需求，而这种需求与我国农村剩余劳动力向现代部门转移的模式息息相关。以户籍制度为核心的人口迁移制度和土地制度共同决定了进行非永久性迁移，保留农村集体的成员权，将家庭劳动力在农业部门和非农部门进行配置，以充分利用家庭资源，最大限度地增加家庭就业和收入并降低风险成为多数农村家庭的最优选择。在非永久性迁移模式下，现代部门可以以低于永久性迁移模式下的工资获得发展所需的劳动力，但是，农村剩余劳动力对转移工资水平存在着一种上升需求。并且，非永久性迁移模式所能释放的劳动力数量有限，随着现代部门劳动力需求的不断增加，其能释放的农村剩余劳动力会被吸收殆尽，此后，必须进行永久性迁移才能释放更多的剩余劳动力。农村剩余劳动力进行永久性迁移，将进一步强化工资水平上升需求。经过多年的经济发展，我国非永久性迁移所能释放农村剩余劳动力已被吸收殆尽，我国已进入永久性迁移阶段，农村剩余劳动力的工资水平上升需求将得到不断强化。“民工荒”标着提高农民工工资水平制度的供给不足，而地方政府的资本偏向和农民工的集体失声共同决定了工资调整制度供给不足的局面。因此，治理“民工荒”，关键在于提高农民工工资水平，而农民工工资水平的提高，需要从制度供给着手。促进经济增长由主要依靠投资、出口拉动向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变是我国经济发展方式转变的内容之一。这个转变的核心在于解决消费需求不足问题。我国农村居民人均纯收入占国民人均可支配收入的下降是导致我国最终消费率下降最主要的原因，提高农村居民人均纯收入在人均国民可支配收入中的比重是提高解决消费需求不足的关键。提高农民工工资水平不仅可以直接提高农村家庭的工资性收入，进而提高农村居民人均纯收入在人均国民可支配收入中的比重，还可以通过促进农村土地流转、合并促进农地的规模经营进而增加务农收入的效果，这可以间接提高农村居民人均纯收入在人均国民可支配收入中的比重。因此，提高农民工工资水平，对于提高消费水平进而促进我国经济发展方式的转变具有重要的积极作用。提高农民工工资水平对于我国全要素生产率的提高进而对促进转变经济发展方式也具有重要意义。农民工工资水平提高促进全要素生产率提高的具体作用机制主要为：技术进步方面，农民工工资水平的提高将导致物质资本收益水平的降低进而加强企业进行技术创新或者技术引进的激励，同时，扩大市场需求规模，通过分摊研发成本、降低研发风险、优化市场结构、提高国家创新能力等增加企业进行技术创新或技术引进的动力。人力资本方面，农民工工水平的提高可以通过增加人力资本的预期收益提高人力资本投资的需求并增强农村居民人力资本投资的供给能力。同时，工资水平的提高可以降低农民工的流动性、增强雇用稳定性，确保企业有足够的时间收回其投资成本并获得投资收益，从而增强企业对其进行人力资本投资的可能性和力度。此外，农民工工资水平的提高有利于提高企业劳动力队伍的质量和工作的努力程度、降低农民工的流动性，这可以直接提高企业的生产率，进而有利于全要素生产率的提高。提高农民工工资水平，关键在于制度供给。解决制度供给不足问题，主要对策有转变地方政府职能，将农民工的公众福利纳入到转入地政府的考核范围；通过工会体制改革、吸引农民工加入工会，增强农民工组织性等措施。本文拟实现的创新有：首先，从理论上明确“刘易斯转折点”的判断标准应该是传统部门劳动力的边际生产力与其收入水平的关系，并利用这个判断标准对我国的发展阶段进行了实证研究；其次，从迁移模式的角度对我国农村剩余劳动力的工资上升决定机制进行了较为深入的考察，为研究“民工荒”的成因提供了新的思路。同时，在经典二元经济理论关于经济阶段划分的基础上，结合我国的经济实际，将二元经济发展阶段进一步细分为劳动力非永久性迁移和永久性迁移两个阶段，进一步修正了经典二元经济理论。第三，对农民工工资水平提高与我国经济发展方式转变之间的作用机制进行了较为深入和全面的研究，补充了我们对工资水平和经济发展之间关系方面的研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a country that has a dual economic structure, our economic growth is goingthrough a typical economic development with unlimited labor supply. Lots of ruralsurplus labor continuously flows into modern economic department which isprimarily made up of urban industry, service industry and township enterprises. Itpromotes capital accumulation and output value growth of the modern economicdepartment. Expansion of the modern department attracts more rural surplus labor. AsChina’s economic development moves in accordance with this path,“the migrantworkers shortage” constantly occurred and its scope is more and more wide, ittriggered a heated discussion about “Lewis turning point”. At the same time, promoteour country’s economic development mode change becomes the main task that thecomprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of economy faces.The judgment of the number of rural surplus labor in our country is the mainbasis of judging the“Lewis turning point”. However, the differences between theexisting measure method and data lead to a big difference of the calculated results.Only using it as the basis for judging the economic development of our country is notenough. This paper reviewed the Lewis dual economic model and the extendedmodels, it found that the “Lewis turning point” should be the “commercial point” inthe Fei and Ranis model. The judgment standard of the “Lewis turning point” shouldbe the relation between the marginal productivity of the traditional department laborand his income. Accordingly, using empirical analysis of measurement model, wefound that there was still a big gap between the marginal productivity of agriculturallabor and the average income level in our country, our country has not reached the“Lewis turning point”, economic development is still in the dual economicdevelopment stage.The “migrant workers shortage” reflects the demand of high wages level ofmigrant workers, and this demand is closely linked with the migration patterns thatthe rural surplus labor move into the modern department. The population migration system with the household registration system as the core and land institutionsdetermined the temporary migration pattern of rural labor together. Keep the ruralcollective member right, it become the best choice for the most rural families toallocate family labor between the agricultural department and non-agriculturaldepartment, make full use of family resources, maximize employment and familyincome and reduce risk. In the temporary migration pattern, the modern departmentcan get labors using the wage less than the permanent migration pattern, but in thetemporary migration pattern, there was a rising demand of the wages. And, thequantity of rural surplus labor that the temporary migration pattern release is limited,with the labor demand of the modern department increases, the quantity of ruralsurplus labor that temporary migration release will be absorbed up, after that, it needspermanent migration to release more surplus labor. It will strengthen wages risingdemand when the surplus rural labor take the permanent migration pattern. Afteryears of economic development, the surplus rural labor that the temporary migrationcan release has been absorbed up, our country has entered the stage of permanentmigration, the rising demand of rural surplus labor wage level will be constantlyimproved. As a kind of institution wages, the “migrant worker shortage” standard aundersupply of the institutions which can raise the level of the rural migrant workerswage, the local government’s capital tendency and the Organization failure of themigrant workers determined the undersupply of the institutions which can raise thelevel of the rural migrant workers wage. Therefore, the key of managing the “migrantworker shortage” is to increase peasant worker wage level to meet the rising demandmigrant workers salary, while it needs supply institution in order to raise the level ofmigrant worker wages.Promoting economic growth transform from mainly rely on investment andexports to rely on coordination pull by consumption, investment and export is one ofthe content of China’s economic development method transformation. The core of thischange is to improve the final consumption rate, solve the consumption demandshortage. The main reason of the consumption rate decline is the decline of the rate ofthe net per capita income of rural residents and national per capita disposable income.The key of improving the final consumption rate and solving the consumption demand shortage is to improve the rate of the rural per capita net income and nationalper capita disposable income. Improving the rural migrant workers wage level candirectly increase wage income of rural households, and improve the rate of the ruralper capita net income and national per capita disposable income. It also can increasethe farming income through promoting the circulation and combination of rural land,promoting the scale operation of the land, this can indirectly improve the rate of therural per capita net income and national per capita disposable income. Thus,improving migrant worker wage level can also improve the level of consumption andhas a significant positive role in promoting the economic development method inChina change.Improving the migrant worker wage also has important meaning of economicdevelopment method transformation through promoting total factor productivity. Theimprovement of the migrant worker wage level has two main ways to promote totalfactor productivity. On the aspect of technology progress, improving migrant workerwage level will enhance the incentive of enterprise technology innovation ortechnology import through reducing physical capital gains level. At the same time, itexpands the market demand scale, through sharing research and development costs,reducing the research and development risk, Optimizing the market structure,improving the nation innovation ability to increase enterprise technology innovationor technology import power. On the aspect of human capital, improving the migrantworkers wage level can improve the demand of human capital investment by addingthe expected return, and improve the supply capacity of rural residents’ human capitalinvestment. At the same time, it can reduce the liquidity of migrant workers, andenhance the employment stability, ensure enterprise have enough time to recover theirinvestment costs and get porfit, and strengthen the enterprise of the possibility ofhuman capital investment and strength. In addition, improving migrant worker wagelevel can improve the quality of the enterprise worker and hard work, reduce thedegree of migrant workers’ liquidity, those can directly increase productivity, which isbeneficial to the improvement of total factor productivity.The key of improving migrant workers’ wage level is the supply of institution.Tosolve institution supply shortage problem, the main countermeasures have to change local government function, bring migrant workers’ public welfare into thegovernment’s assessment scope; take the union system reform, attract migrantworkers to join into the union, strengthen the organization of migrant workers.This paper intends to realize the innovation are: first, theoretically clear thejudgment standard of "lewis turning point" should be the relation between themarginal productivity and average income level of the labor in the traditionaldepartment. Using this judgment standard, it takes a empirical research on thedevelopment phases of our country; Then, it takes a deeply investigation on China’srural surplus labor wage rise decision mechanism from the view point of themigration patterns, and provides a new ideas for the study for the cause of “migratworkers shortage”. At the same time, on the basis of the classic dual economic theoryand combined with our country’s economy, it revises the classic dual economic theorythrough dividing the dual economic development stage into two stages, the permanentmigration stage and the temporary migration. Third, it takes a deeply comprehensiveresearch on the mechanism of migrant workers wage level and our economicdevelopment mode change, and adds to the research on the relation between thewages level and economic development.更多还原