【作者】 崔昊；

【导师】 朱彤；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 对外直接投资、逆向技术溢出属于国际技术溢出研究领域的一个分支。对国际技术溢出现象的研究源自技术对一国经济发展的重要性以及世界经济一体化程度的日益加深。在国际竞争越来越激烈的当前，技术水平对一国的综合实力起着至关重要的决定作用。虽然很多国际经济活动都有可能伴随着技术溢出，但是该领域的研究者主要关注以下三条国际技术溢出的渠道：对外直接投资、吸引外资、进口商品和服务①。自Lichtenberg&Porterie开启逆向技术溢出②的研究领域以来，部分学者对该领域的研究进行过发展。由于数据可得性的限制，目前对逆向技术溢出的研究相对较少。在已有的研究中，大多数学者认为对外直接投资所获得的东道国逆向技术溢出能够促进母国技术水平的提升。本文的研究也建立在国际技术溢出领域的已有研究之上，并且引入了“吸收能力”这一因素进行研究，本文首先对逆向技术溢出的研究做了一定深入和创新，在此基础上，欲解决以下问题：中国企业对外直接投资所获得的东道国逆向技术溢出能否促进中国整体技术水平的提升③？为了进行必要的原因分析，本文还研究了中国的研发资金存量和人力资本能否形成一定的吸收能力，以促进中国对逆向技术溢出的吸收④，为使得东道国逆向技术溢出对国内技术进步有促进作用，是否存在国内研发资金存量或人力资本的“门槛效应”？此外，本文最后在全文研究的基础上提出了一定的政策建议。本文的主要创新在于：1）将逆向人力资本溢出纳入了逆向技术溢出的研究范畴，进而将人力资本溢出纳入了国际技术溢出的研究范畴。传统研究都以研发资金溢出来代替技术溢出，而研发资金溢出的衡量指标是用研发资金投入来构造的，忽略了人力资本投入，本文第一章将会对“研发资金溢出”和“人力资本溢出”进行概念界定⑤，也会对本文引入人力资本溢出的原因进行说明。2）在吸收能力理论的基础上，提出了“抑制作用”这一概念。传统研究认为，母国的研发资金投入和人力资本能形成一定的吸收能力，促进母国对东道国逆向技术溢出的吸收；而本文认为，母国的研发资金投入和人力资本可能会对逆向技术溢出产生“抑制作用”，阻碍逆向技术溢出对母国技术水平的促进作用⑥。本文的第一章是绪论部分，提出了本文要研究的问题并且进行了相关概念界定，同时介绍了本文的章节安排和逻辑结构及研究方法，还指出了本文的创新及不足之处。第二章是理论基础部分，本文以国际技术溢出理论、吸收能力理论、“战略资产”寻求理论作为理论基础，在国际技术溢出理论和吸收能力理论的基础上构建起基本分析框架，在“战略资产”寻求理论的指导下提出政策建议。第二章对这三方面的理论及其研究方法进行了充分、详尽的阐述。第三章对逆向技术溢出研究领域进行了深入和发展，并做了一定的创新，为进一步对中国问题的研究提供理论和方法上的依据，同时其实证结论也具有一定的指导意义。第三章建立了理论模型，以说明逆向技术溢出对母国技术水平的影响机制；同时，第三章的理论部分还对吸收能力理论进行了发展，指出了“抑制作用”的存在；此外，本文理论模型还说明了母国在约束条件下最大化自身技术水平的策略。本文随后用OECD国家数据进行实证研究以检验理论模型，主要发现有：1）对外直接投资所获得的逆向研发资金溢出和逆向人力资本溢出可以促进母国技术进步；2）母国的研发资金存量（以及人力资本）对东道国的逆向研发资金溢出产生了“抑制作用”；3）母国的人力资本对东道国逆向人力资本溢出产生了“抑制作用”。第四章是本文的重点章节，开始对中国问题进行研究，以解决本文的核心问题。第四章第一节对中国对外直接投资的历史和现状进行了一定的研究，目的在于分析中国对外直接投资的行业分布和区域分布的发展和现状，同时还分析了中国对世界主要经济体的投资情况。研究发现，近年来，中国制造业的对外直接投资都占有一定的份额；此外，中国对欧美等发达国家和地区的投资呈现一定的上升趋势，并且其中制造业的投资占了较大份额（少数国家除外，比如澳大利亚和俄罗斯）。本文认为，制造业的对外直接投资是获取海外技术溢出的主要方式，并且发达国家和地区以及新兴工业化国家和地区是技术溢出的主要来源地，因此，中国的对外直接投资有可能获得东道国的逆向技术溢出。随后，第二节进行了企业层面的案例分析，研究发现，部分中国企业通过对外直接投资获得了东道国逆向技术溢出并且带来了企业自身的技术提升，而这样的东道国主要是一些发达国家和新兴工业化国家，如美国、日本、英国、法国、德国、韩国、新加坡等。企业层面技术的提升有可能带动国内整体技术的提升，因此，第二节的分析为进一步国家层面的实证研究做了铺垫。第三节采用上一章所建立的研究方法，通过计量分析来研究逆向技术溢出对中国整体技术水平的影响，本文采用全要素生产率来衡量国内技术水平，并且将逆向技术溢出分为逆向研发资金溢出和逆向人力资本溢出两类进行研究；同时，为了进行必要的原因分析，第三节还研究了国内的研发资金存量和人力资本能否形成一定的吸收能力，促进中国对逆向技术溢出的吸收，或者是否表现为“抑制作用”。通过第四章的研究，本文发现：1）在本文的研究年限中（1985年——2008年），整体而言，东道国逆向研发资金溢出和逆向人力资本溢出对国内技术水平没有显著的影响；2）对于逆向研发资金溢出而言，国内的人力资本可以形成一定的吸收能力，为使得逆向研发资金溢出对国内技术有正向的影响，存在国内人力资本的“门槛效应”，即，从2001年开始，逆向研发资金溢出经过国内人力资本的吸收，对国内技术水平有促进作用；3）对于逆向人力资本溢出而言，国内的研发资金存量可以形成一定的吸收能力，为使得逆向人力资本溢出对国内技术有正向影响，存在国内研发资金存量的“门槛效应”，即，从2004年开始，逆向人力资本溢出经过国内研发资金存量的吸收，对国内技术有促进作用。第五章是本文的结语部分，对全文的主要结论进行了归纳总结，并且提出了相应的政策建议。本文在国际技术溢出理论的基础上，对逆向技术溢出的研究进行了深入和发展，并且引入了吸收能力进行研究。相关理论认为，对外直接投资所获得的逆向技术溢出可以带来母国技术水平的提升，第三章的理论模型和实证检验也支持这一观点。对于中国而言，本文通过案例分析发现部分中国企业通过对外直接投资获得了东道国的逆向技术溢出并且带来了企业自身的技术提升；但是，国家层面的实证研究却发现东道国逆向技术溢出没有带来中国整体技术水平的显著提升（1985年到2008年的整体情况）。比较积极的发现是，中国的人力资本对逆向研发资金溢出形成了一定的吸收能力，当国内人力资本超过“门槛值”时，即，2001年（含）之后，逆向研发资金溢出经过国内人力资本的吸收对国内技术水平有促进作用；同时中国的研发资金存量对逆向人力资本溢出形成了吸收能力，当国内研发资金存量超过“门槛值”时，即，2004年（含）之后，逆向人力资本溢出经过国内研发资金存量的吸收对国内技术水平有促进作用。在此基础上，本文进行了一定的原因分析并且提出了相关政策建议，指出了未来中国对外直接投资可行的发展方向，这正是本文研究的意义所在。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study of reverse technology spillovers belongs to the research field ofinternational technology spillovers. The research of international technologyspillovers originated from the importance of technology in the development of acountry’s economy and the depening of the world’s economic integration. Nowadays,technology becomes more and more important to a county’s national power while thecompetition between countries becomes more and more fierce.Although there may be a lot of international economy activities that consist oftechnology spillovers, researchers of international technology spillovers mainlyconcerns three of them: outward foreign direct investment, inward foreign directinvestment, and the import of goods and services.Nearly two decades ago, Lichtenberg and Porterie started toresearch reversetechnology spillovers.Some researchers followed them to re-study the problem andtried to make some developments. But until now, the study of reverse technologyspillovershas been limited due to the scarce of data. In all the studies that we can find,most of them thought that reverse technology spillovers contribute to the technologyof home countries.Standing on the theory of international technology spillovers and the theory of“absorptive capacity”, after a proper development of the theories and researchmethods, this paper wants to solve the following problems: Could reverse technologyspillovers that China’s firms got overseas promote China’s technology? If reversetechnology spillovers that China’s firms got cannot promote China’s technology, whatcan be the proper reasons? In order to analyse the reason, this paper also studies thefollowing problem: Does China’s R&D capital stock or human resources show someabsorptive capacity to reverse technology spillovers, and whether or not there is“threshold effect”?Besides, this paper gives some policy advicesin the last chapter.There are two main innovations in this paper:1) Bringing “reverse humancapital spillovers” into the research field of reverse technology spillovers, and thusbringing “human capital spillovers” into the research field of international technology spillovers.Classical studies used “R&D capital spillovers” to substitute technologyspillovers, however, the measurement of “R&D capitalspillovers” only considersR&D capital, ignores human capital. Chapter1will explain why I introduce “humancapital spillovers” to the research field.2) On the basis of absorptive capacity, offeringthe concept of “restraining effect”. Traditional researchers hold the view that R&Dcapital or human resources of home countries could show some absorptivecapacityand accelerate the absorption of reverse technology spillovers, but I think thatthere also can be some kind of “restraining effect” between the R&D capital orhuman resources of home countries and reverse technology spillovers, that is, theR&D capital or human resources of home countries may restrain the effect of reversetechnology spillovers.Chapter1is the introduction of the whole paper. In chapter one, I will introducethe problems this paper wants to solve, explain some concepts, show the logic andarrangement of the paper, and I will also introduce the research methods, innovationsand imperfections of the whole paper.In chapter2, I will introduce the theoretical basis of the paper. The study of thispaper stands on three theories: the theory of international technology spillovers, thetheory of absorptive capacity, and the theory of “strategic asset” seekingforeign directinvestment. This paper builds research method on the theory of internationaltechnology spillovers and the theory of absorptive capacity, and offers policy adviceson the theory of “strategic asset” seeking foreign direct investment.Chapter3makes some proper developments to the research of reversetechnology spillovers. This chapter offers research methods to the next chapter, andits empirical studies’ results have some guiding value for China, too. Thischapterbuildstheoretical models to illustrate how reverse technology spillovers affecthome countries’ technology; and the models also explain “restraining effect”; besides,the models illustrate home countries’ strategy to maximize their technology underconstraints. Then this chapter uses empirical studies to test the models. The empiricalstudies of chapter3uses the data of OECD countries, and the main discoveriesare:1)Reverse technology spillovers can promote home countries’ technology;2) Homecountries’ R&D capital stock and human capital show some “restraining effect” to reverse R&D capital spillovers respectively;3) Home countries’ human capital showssome “restraining effect” to reverse human capital spillovers.Chapter4is the core of the whole paper. In this chapter, I will study China’ssituation so as to solve the problems chapter1has put forward.The first part of chapter4studies the history and status quo of China’s outwardforeign direct investment, this part mainly studies the industry distribution and areadistribution of China’s outward direct investment, and it also studies China’sinvestment in the main economic integrities. The discoveries are:1) In the recentyears, China’s manufacturingfirms’ outward foreign direct investment take a smallportion of the whole outward foreign direct investment of China,2) China’sinvestment in developed countries began to increase，and most of the firms thatinvested in developed countries were mamufacturing firms(except for some countries,for example, Australia, Russian). This paper hold the view that manufacturing firms’outward direct investment is the maily way to get reverse technology spillovers, anddeveloped countries (or some newly industrialized countries) are the main resourcesof technology spillovers. Thus, China’s outward direct investment may get somereverse technology spillovers from overseas.The second part chooses some China’s firms to study their outward directinvestment in detail, and I find thatthose firms can get some reverse technologyspillovers from host countries like USA, Japan, UK, France, Germany, Korea,Singapore, etc.. And I also find that reverse technology spillovers can promote thetechnology of those firms.The increase of firms’ technology may contribute to thetechnology progress of China, thus the study of this part lays a foundation for thefollowing study.Using the research methods built in chapter3, the third partresearches therelationship betweenreverse technology spillovers and China’s technology (TFP), andin order to analyse the reason, this part also studies whether China’s R&D capitalstock/human resources shows some absorptive capacity or “restraining effect” toreverse technology spillovers. The main discoveries are:1)From1985to2008, as awhole, reverse technology spillovers cannot promote China’s technology;2) China’shuman capital shows some absorptive capacity to reverse R&D capital spillovers, and reverse R&D capital spillovers could promote China’s technology if China’s humancapital exceeded“threshold”, that is, from2001, reverse R&D capital spillovers couldpromote China’s technology after being absorbed by China’s human capital;3)China’s R&D capital stock shows some absorptive capacity to reverse humancapital spillovers, and reverse human capital spillovers could promote China’stechnology if China’s R&D capital stock exceeded“threshold”, that is, from2004,reverse human capital spillovers could promote China’s technology after beingabsorbed by China’s R&D capital stock.Chapter5concludes the whole paper, sums up the main discoveries of the paper,and offers some policy advices.Theories of international technology spillovers hold the view that reversetechnology spillovers can promote the technology of home countries. Chapter3’stheoretical models and empirical studies supportit. As for China, chapter4finds thatsome China’s firms benefit from reverse technology spillovers they got overseas, buthowever, from1985to2008, as a whole, I didn’t find some remarkable and positiverelationship between reverse technology spillovers and China’s whole technology.The positive findsare:1)China’s human resources show some absorptive capacity toreverse R&D capital spillovers, and reverse R&D capital spillovers could promoteChina’s technology if China’s human capital exceeded “threshold”;2) China’s R&Dcapital stock shows some absorptive capacity to reverse human capital spillovers, andreverse human capital spillovers could promote China’s technology if China’s R&Dcapital stock exceeded “threshold”.Then I give some proper reasons, put forwardsome policy advices, point out the feasible development path of China’s outwardforeign direct investment in the future, thus the study of this paper becomesmeaningful.更多还原