【作者】 杨成林；

【导师】 何自力；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 政治经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 战后增长的“黄金时期”后，西方发达国家普遍经历了经济中服务业重要性不断上升，相反，工业特别是制造业在经济中重要性不断下降的过程，即经济的去工业化进程。在卡尔多看来，这一现象是战后时期经济发展过程中的最显著的“特征事实”之一。20世纪中叶，社会科学家们开始预测后工业社会的来临，在这种社会形态中，经济主要围绕着服务活动，而不是实物生产活动来展开。自此，经济的去工业化问题逐渐引起了人们的注意，并逐渐地进入了学术界的视野。然而，主流观点认为，经济的去工业化进程是经济发展的必然趋势，是经济或产业结构“高级化”的必然表现，是一种积极意义上的经济演变过程。因此，去工业化主要是经济内部力量驱动的结果,如制造业劳动生产率的相对提高以及消费需求结构的变化等。但是，资本主义经济发展的历史实践，特别是2008年金融危机以及主权国家债务危机的发生，都向这种观点提出了质疑和挑战。另外，同样重要的是，这种观点根本不能解释很多发展中国家和地区出现的早熟去工业化，而现有的关于早熟去工业化成因的解释，如经济政策等外生因素，至多对这种去工业化形式的发生起次要或辅助性的作用。很显然，去工业化的发生必然存在其它更为深层次的原因。这些深层原因不但可以解释发达国家的去工业化进程，而且也可以解释发展中国家和地区出现的早熟去工业化进程。对去工业化发生机制或根源的探求，不仅是经济实践的要求，更是理论探索的魅力所在。而这正是本文所要做的。工业，特别是其中的制造业是经济增长和运行的核心和基础。这一原理对任何时期的资本主义都是适用的。经济的去工业化使出现这一现象的国家，丧失了经济运行和增长的基础，以及财富创造和价值来源的主体。而这主要是1965～1973年间出现的资本盈利能力危机以及1973以来资本世界经济长期停滞和萎缩的结果。进一步地说，实体经济的停滞和萎缩源于资本主义生产的系统性过剩以及由此造成利润率下降，而生产的系统性过剩又是资本主义制度的必然产物，它源于资本主义的基本矛盾。因此，去工业化是资本主义制度的必然产物。本文在现有研究的基础上，构建了一个用于解释去工业化发生机制的分析框架。这一分析框架是围绕着资本逐利的本质来展开的，它不仅将去工业化的不同成因纳入进来，而且还进一步地探讨了去工业化的更深层次的根源——20世纪70年代以来全球制造业的生产过剩以及由此引起利润率下降。这是本文的主要创新点之一。其次，本文结合资本主义经济历史发展的实践，对去工业化的影响进行了有益的探讨。这些影响从经济增长到经常账户的收支失衡，再到虚拟经济的过度膨胀、2008年金融危机以及主权国家债务危机等各个方面。第三，本文在对去工业化发生机制进行分析的基础上，对经济的“再工业化”能否取得成功进行了分析。这一分析不仅适用于20世纪80年代美国提出的“再工业化”策略，而且也适用于2008年危机爆发以来，欧美等发达国家再次提出的“再工业化”策略。这又是本文的主要创新点之一。最后，本文也对中国经济去工业化的可能性进行了分析，并对中国如何避免出现去工业化，提出了相关的对策建议。论文的主要内容如下：第一章是导论部分。本章主要介绍了论文的选题背景、意义以及问题的提出、论文的研究方法、主要内容以及论文的创新点及不足等。第二章是工业化的内涵和意义。本章简要回顾了有关工业化的一些问题，主要包括工业化的内涵及标志、工业化与现代化的关系、工业化的本质和意义等。第三章是去工业化的内涵及影响。本章主要对去工业化的内涵进行了界定，梳理了对去工业化现象的不同认识（积极和消极的去工业化），概括了去工业化的经济社会影响。第四章是去工业化的发生机制。首先，本章探讨了去工业化的实质，并在简要分析去工业化不同成因的基础上，构建了一个用以解释去工业化发生机制的分析框架。接下来，本章对去工业化的发生机制进行了系统的分析。第二节分析了去工业化的根本动因，探讨了去工业化的制度根源；第三节对资本主义世界经济长期停滞的去工业化效应进行了实证分析。本节先后给出了盈利能力危机和长期停滞的原因及其对不同去工业化形式的影响；第四节分析了资本逐利本质下去工业化的实现途径或方式，主要包括对外直接投资以及“荷兰病”和不当经济政策等对去工业化的影响。第五章是去工业化的国际比较。本章以美国、英国、巴西和哥伦比亚为例，对不同类型的去工业化形式进行了比较分析，其中，英美两个国家是典型去工业化的代表，而巴西和哥伦比亚是早熟去工业化的典型代表。本章通过不同去工业化形式的比较分析，加深了我们对去工业化现象的理解。第六章,去工业化与资本主义繁荣的终结。本章围绕着四个方面展开讨论，首先，去工业化对经济发展的影响，包括去工业化对经济增长、国际收支失衡以及国家竞争力的影响；其次，资本主义经济从战后繁荣到长期停滞；第三，去工业化与经济金融化和2008年金融危机的关系；第四，去工业化对主权债务危机的影响。第七章，“再工业化”的提出和探索。本章给出了再工业化提出的背景及内涵，总结了再工业化的思路和具体路径，并以上文的分析为基础，对传统经济和产业结构演变模式进行了反思，回答了为什么要对经济进行再工业化以及再工业化能否取得成功。第八章,中国经济去工业化的可能性及对策。本章首先回顾了中国工业经济的发展，并对中国的工业化水平进行了测度；其次，本章总结了中国工业发展存在的问题及现有对策，并对现有问题、对策以及当前流行的关于中国产业结构演变模式的观点进行了反思；再次，本章重点阐述了中国经济去工业化的可能性和现实性；第四，对中国经济如何避免去工业化，提出了相关的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the “golden period” of Post-war growth, western developed countriesgenerally have been experiencing the increasing importance of services industries, incontrast, the declining importance of industry, especially manufacturing, that is,de-industrialization process. In Kaldor’s opinion, this phenomenon is one the mostsignificant “stylized facts” of the economic development of the post-war period.Mid-20th century, social scientists are beginning to predict the arrival of theindustrial society, in this social formation, the economy is mainly around the serviceactivities, rather than physical production activities. Since then, thede-industrialization of the economy gradually attracted attention, and graduallyentered the academic field of vision.However, the mainstream view think that, the process of economicde-industrialization is the inevitable trend of economic development, is the inevitableperformance of “high-class” of economic or industrial structure, is a positive senseof the economic evolution. Therefore, the de-industrialization is mainly driven by theinternal forces of economy, such as the relative improvement of the manufacturinglabor productivity and consumer demand structural changes. However, the historicalpractice of capitalist economic development, especially the2008financial crisis andthe sovereign debt crisis, raised questions and challenges to this view.In addition, itis equally important, this view can not explain the emergence of prematurede-industrialization in many developing countries and regions, on the interpretationof premature de-industrialization, such as economic policy and other exogenousreasons, are at most playing a secondary or auxiliary role for this type ofde-industrialization process.Obviously, there must be some other, more deep-seated reasons explain theprocess of de-industrialization. These underlying reasons can not only explain theprocess of de-industrialization of the developed countries, but also can explain theprocess of premature de-industrialization of the developing countries and regions. The quest of mechanisms and roots of the de-industrialization，is not only thedemands of economic practice, but also charm of theoretical exploration. This iswhat this thesis will to do.Industry, in particular the manufacturing of which is the core and foundation ofeconomic growth and running. This principle is applicable to any period ofcapitalism. The economic de-industrialization of the countries which have thisphenomenon, loss the foundation of economic performance and growth, as well aswealth creation and the main body of the sources of value. This is the result of thecapital profitability crisis between1965and1973, and the long-term stagnation andatrophy of the world economy of Capitalism since1973. Further said that thestagnation and atrophy of the real economy derived from the systematic excess of thecapitalist production and the resulting declining margins, while the systematic excessof production is the inevitable product of the capitalist system, which originatedfrom the basic contradictions of the capitalism. Therefore, the de-industrialization ofthe economy is the inevitable product of the capitalist system.This thesis is based on existing research, to build the analytical framework usedto explain the de-industrialization in the form of Marxism. This analyticalframework is built around the profit-driven nature of capital, it will not only containthe traditional interpretation of de-industrialization, but also to further explore thede-industrialization of the deeper root causes——Since the1970s, theoverproduction of the global manufacturing and the resulting profit margins decline,and then the stagnation and atrophy of the real economy. This is one of the maininnovation of this thesis. Combing the historical development of capitalist economicpractice, this thesis usefully investigates the impact of de-industrialization. Theseeffects from economic growth to the current account imbalances, and thenover-expansion of the virtual economy, the financial crisis of2008, the Sovereigndebt crises, Etc. In addition, on the basis of analyzing the mechanism ofde-industrialization, this thesis analyzes the economic “re-industrialization” Whethercan achieve success or not. This analysis applies not only to “re-industrialization”strategy in the United States in the1980s, but also applies to the“re-industrialization” that raised again by Europe and the United States and other developed countries since the crisis broke out in2008.Finally, this thesis analyze thepossibility of de-industrialization in the Chinese economy, and put forward relevantsuggestions.Main content of the theis are as follows:Chapter Ⅰ is an introduction part. This chapter introduces the researchbackground, the significance, the problem proposed, the research method and themain content, and the innovative points and Shortcomings.Chapter Ⅱ is the meaning and significance of industrialization. This chapterbriefly reviews some of the issues related to industrialization, including connotationand signs of industrialization, the relationship between industrialization andmodernization, the nature and significance of industrialization.Chapter Ⅲ is the meaning and performance of the de-industrialization. Thischapter focuses on different connotations of the de-industrialization, comb adifferent understanding of the phenomenon of de-industrialization (both positive andnegative de-industrialization), summarizes the economic and social impact ofde-industrialization.Chapter Ⅳ is the mechanism of de-industrialization. First of all, the chapterexplores the essence of de-industrialization, and based on a brief analysis on thedifferent causes of de-industrialization, constructs an analytical framework toexplain the mechanism of de-industrialization. Second, the chapter analyzes thefundamental motivation of the de-industrialization, explores the root causes of thesystem of de-industrialization; Third, the chapter analyzes the empirical analysis ofthe effect of long-term stagnation of the capitalist world economy onde-industrialization. This section gives the causes of the profitability crisis andlong-term stagnation and its impact on the de-industrialization; Fourth, the chapteranalyzes the way or manner of realization of the de-industrialization under theprofit-driven nature of Capital, including the impacts of foreign direct investment aswell as the “Dutch disease” and inappropriate economic policies on thede-industrialization.Chapter Ⅴ is the international comparison of de-industrialization. In the case ofthe United States, Britain, Brazil and Colombia, this chapter give a comparative analysis of different types of de-industrialization, in order to deepen ourunderstanding of the problem of de-industrialization. Among them, the UnitedKingdom and the United States are the representative of the typicalde-industrialization, while Brazil and Colombia are the typical representative of thepremature de-industrialization.Chapter Ⅵ is the relationship between the de-industrialization and the end ofcapitalist prosperity. This chapter is around four aspects to discuss. First of all, theimpact of de-industrialization on economic development, including the impact ofde-industrialization on economic growth, the imbalance of international payments aswell as the country’s competitiveness; Second, the relationship between thede-industrialization and capitalism long-term stagnation; Third, the relationshipbetween industrialization and the2008financial crisis; Fourth, the impact ofde-industrialization on the sovereign debt crisis.Chapter Ⅶ is the re-industrialization and its exploration. This chapter gives thebackground and content of the re-industrialization proposed, summarizes thethinking and specific paths of the re-industrialization, and based on the aboveanalysis, reflects on the traditional economic and industrial evolution model, answerswhy re-industrializes the economy, and Whether the re-industrialization can achievesuccess or not.Chapter Ⅷ is a possibility of de-industrialization in the Chinese economy andits countermeasures.The chapter first reviews the development of China’s industrialeconomy, and measures the level China’s industrialization; Second, this chaptersummarizes the existing problems and countermeasures of China’s industrialdevelopment, and reflects on the existing problems, its countermeasures, and currentpopular views of evolution of Chinese industrial structure; Third, the thesis focuseson the possibility and reality of the de-industrialization of China’s economic; Fourth,the policy recommendations on how to avoid the de-industrialization of the Chineseeconomy.更多还原