【作者】 周亚飞；

【导师】 刘茂；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 环境工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 台风灾害是我国沿海及部分内陆地区经常发生的一种气象灾害，是世界上最严重的自然灾害之一，而由台风引起的台风风暴潮灾害是我国海洋灾害之首，会造成重大的人员伤亡和财产损失。对台风风暴潮的风险进行评价，确定风险较高的地区；对台风风暴潮的影响进行预测研究，确定其淹没范围和深度，对台风风暴潮的防灾减灾规划和应急资源配置具有重要的指导意义；对台风风暴潮时的应急交通疏散理论和方法进行研究，可以更加快速有效地将受影响的人员和财产转移到安全地区，从而降低台风风暴潮灾害所造成的人员伤亡和财产损失。本文通过对台风风暴潮灾害的定量风险评价方法和影响预测技术进行研究，对应急交通疏散的理论和方法进行研究，构建了台风风暴潮灾害的风险评价、影响预测和应急交通疏散体系。在台风风暴潮灾害的风险评价研究方面，本文综合考虑台风风暴潮的危险性、脆弱性和暴露性，构建了台风风暴潮灾害的风险评价指标体系，根据历史统计资料等数据对各评价指标进行量化，利用GIS的空间分析功能将各评价指标按其权重进行叠加分析，得出台风风暴潮灾害的风险等级区划。以浙江沿海为例，对台风风暴潮灾害的风险评价进行了案例应用研究。在台风风暴潮灾害的影响预测技术研究方面，本文利用台风风暴潮预测模型ADCIRC (ADvanced CIRCulation Multi-dimensional Hydrodynamic Model)对台风风暴潮灾害的淹没范围和深度进行预测分析，根据ADCIRC的原理，包括控制方程、风场模型、干湿网格划分方法等，对预测流程和方法进行研究；以浙江省台州市为例，利用其30m精度的DEM数据对研究区域进行建模，结合台风“云娜”的相关数据作为ADCIRC模型的输入参数，模拟得出了台州市在台风“云娜”时的淹没范围和深度。在应急交通疏散的理论与方法研究方面，本文将数值求解与微观交通仿真结合起来，对应急交通疏散模型进行数值求解，利用微观交通仿真软件VISSIM对疏散过程进行微观仿真，并将数值结果与仿真结果进行比较分析，使应急交通疏散的研究更贴近于实际情况。以元胞传输模型（CTM）的理论为基础，以最小化总的行程时间为目标函数，构建了疏散路径选择模型；以最小化总的行程时间为目标函数，构建了逆向车道操作模型，来确定最佳的逆向车道入口位置；以最小化加权总时间为目标函数，构建了分期疏散模型，来对起点处的网络进行优化。对各个疏散模型分别进行了案例应用，利用MathProg和Lp-solve对模型进行数值求解，并与VISSIM的仿真结果进行了分析比较。最后，以浙江省台州市为例，对台风风暴潮灾害时的应急交通疏散进行了案例分析。利用ADCIRC预测得出台风风暴潮灾害的淹没范围和深度，确定疏散范围和人员；结合数值求解和微观交通仿真方法，对台风风暴潮时的应急交通疏散进行了分析研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Typhoon disaster is a meteorological disaster which often happened in China’scoastal and some inland regions, it is one of the world’s most severe natural disasters.The storm surge disasters caused by typhoon are the first of China’s marine disasters,which often result in significant casualties and property lossess.Evaluating the risk of typhoon storm surges to identify high-risk areas,predicting the impact of typhoon storm surge to determine the submerged area anddepth, will provide important guidance on disaster prevention and mitigationplanning and emergency resource allocation. The research on theory and methods oftyphoon storm surges is helpful on transferring the affected population to safe areasmore quickly and effectively, thereby reducing the casualties and property lossesscaused by typhoon storm surge disasters.In this paper, a system for risk assessment, impact prediction and emergencytraffic evacuation is proposed, through studying the quantitative risk assessmentmethods and the impact forecasting techniques of the typhoon storm surge disasters,the theory and methods of emergency traffic evacuation.In the section of risk assessment for typhoon storm surge disasters, the hazard,vulnerability and exposure of the typhoon storm surge are consideredcomprehensively to propose a risk assessment index system. Each index is quantifiedaccording to historical statistics and other data, then an overlay analysis based ontheir weight is carried out using the spatial analysis function in GIS, and the risk ratezoning of the typhoon storm surge disasters is obtained. The area along the coast ofZhejing Province is selected as an example to have a case study on risk assessmentof typhoon storm surge disasters.In the section of impact prediction technology for typhoon storm surge disasters,the storm surge prediction model ADCIRC (ADvanced CIRCulationMulti-dimensional Hydrodynamic Model) is used to analyze the flooded scope anddepth of the typhoon storm surge disasters. Based on the principles of ADCIRC,including the control equations, the wind field model, the wet and dry mesh methods, the forecasting processes and methods are researched. The Taizhou City of ZhejiangProvince is selected as an example to have a case study, the DEM data in30maccuracy are used to model the study area, the relevant data of typhoon ‘Rananim’are used as the input parameters of the ADCIRC model, and the submerged rangeand depth of Taizhou City in the typhoon ‘Rananim’ are obtained.In the section of theory and methods study for emergency traffic evacuation, thenumerical solution and the microscopic traffic simulation methods are combinedtogether, the emergency traffic evacuation models are solved numerically, theevacuation processes are simulated microscopicly using the the microscopic trafficsimulation software VISSIM, the numerical results and the simulation results areanalyzed comparatively to make the study closed to the actual situation. Based onthe theory of the cell transmission model (CTM), the evacuation route selectionmodel is built with the objective function to minimize the total travel time. Thecontraflow operation model is built with the objective function to minimize the totaltravel time, which is used to determine the best reverse lane position. The stagedevacuation model is built with the objective function to minimize the weighted totaltravel time, which is used to optimize the network at the starting point. Case studiesare carried out for each evacuation model, the MathProg and Lp_solve is used tohave numerical solutions for the models, which are analyzed and compared with theVISSIM simulation results.Finally, the Taizhou City of Zhejiang Province is selected to have a case studyon emergency traffic evacuation for typhoon storm surge disasters. The submergedrange and depth of the storm surge disasters are forecasted using ADCIRC, theevacuation scope and popuation are determined, then the emergency trafficevacuation under typhoon storm surge disasters is analyzed combining the numericalsolution methods and the microscopic traffic simulation methods.更多还原