【作者】 李艳飞；

【导师】 戚安邦；

【作者基本信息】 南开大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 城市化进程的加快和城市人口的增加，对城市的综合承载力水平提出了更高的要求。城市承载力水平的提高是通过城市建设项目来实现的，城市综合开发项目是典型的城建项目，是提升城市承载力的重要途径。然而，城市综合开发项目在建设和运营的过程中出现了若干问题，主要表现为投资盲目、对自然和历史环境破坏程度大、基础设施不配套以及在拆迁过程中的一些社会问题等。这些问题的出现，是由于在项目的决策阶段忽略了城市综合开发项目与城市承载力的双向关系的评价而造成的。城市综合开发项目与城市的发展和功能的完善有着密不可分的关系。城市综合开发项目的建设通常是为了弥补城市功能的某些“缺口”，提升城市功能，也就是提升城市的综合承载力水平；同时，项目的建设和运营的过程中也受到城市经济、自然环境、社会等各方面因素的影响和制约，要综合评价城市的自然环境、现有基础设施、经济和社会是否能够满足城市综合开发项目的需求。基于此，本文运用了文献调研、案例研究和问卷调查相结合的方法展开了基于承载力的城市综合开发项目评价模型与方法的研究，对城市的综合承载力与大型城市综合开发项目之间的双向制约关系进行了分析，构建了基于城市承载力的大型城市综合开发项目评价模型和指标。本论文在以下几个方面开展了创新的研究，论述如下。1．研究并构建了基于承载力的城市综合开发项目评价模型城市综合开发项目与城市承载力关系密不可分，城市综合开发项目是提升城市承载力的直接途径，同时，城市综合开发项目的正常建设和运营也需要城市承载力的支持。城市综合开发项目若不考虑这种双向制约的关系，不仅不利于城市综合承载力的提高，也会给项目的建设和运营带来诸多问题。本文提出了这个新的研究视角，并构建了基于承载力的城市综合开发项目的评价模型，提出在项目启动阶段，要综合评价城市综合开发项目对城市承载力的贡献以及对其依赖性。首先，要评价城市开发项目对于承载力的贡献，能够弥补承载力缺口的项目才得以启动，这是解决当前城市“承载力不足”和“承载力过剩”问题的基本准则和途径。同时，要评价城市承载力对城市综合开发项目的影响，只有充分的认识到城市经济承载力、基础设施承载力、社会承载力和自然环境承载力对城市综合开发项目的支持与否以及支持程度，才能够避免城市综合开发项目中出现的若干问题。2．构建了全新的城市综合开发项目受城市承载力影响的评价指标城市综合开发项目受到城市综合承载力的影响和制约，本文运用文献调查、案例分析的方法对城市综合开发项目的影响和制约因素进行了分析，确定了影响项目建设和运营的城市自然环境、城市基础设施、城市经济和社会四个承载力因素，构建了城市承载力对城市综合开发项目影响评价的指标体系。本文使用问卷调查法通过专业人士对这些指标进行评分，对指标体系进行删选，论证了指标体系的科学性和有效性。3．研究并提出了城市开发项目承载力不足的提升方法本文运用规范的研究方法通过对承载力的基本内涵的分析研究了城市综合开发项目承载力不足的提升方法。承载力的基本内涵包括压力和承压系统两个方面，是否在承载范围内，不仅要看承载系统的承压能力，也要看压力源所产生压力的大小。当前对于承载力的提升方法的研究通常是从提升承载系统的承载能力来考虑的，然而，在某些情况下，降低压力源的压力是解决承载力不足的唯一途径。一部分基础设施承载力不足可以通过城市开发项目自建来弥补，而自然环境、经济和社会承载力系统都是不能够轻易改变的，在这种情况下，城市综合开发项目的规模和方案要适应当前承载力的水平，才能够避免城市开发项目中的诸多问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The accelerated urbanization and urban population increases asks for a higherUrban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity level. Raising the level of Urban CarryingCapacity is achieved through urban construction projects and Urban ComprehensiveDevelopment Project is a typical urban construction projects, through which the city’sCarrying Capacity is improved. However, the Urban Comprehensive DevelopmentProjects(UCDP) met a number of issues in the process of construction and operation,mainly as blind investment, damage on the natural and historical environment, theinfrastructure not comparable with construction scale and some social problems in theprocess of demolition. These problems are caused by ignoring two-way relationshipbetween UCDP and the Urban Carrying Capacity in the decision-making assessmentof the project. UCDP and Urban Carrying Capacity have a close relationshipbetween each other. The development and construction of the UCDP is usually tocompensate for some of the "gap" or improve urban functions, that is, to raise theurban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity. Meanwhile, the success of the UCDP isinfluenced and constrained by city’s natural environment Carrying Capacity, existinginfrastructure Carrying Capacity, economic and social Carrying Capacity. Based onthis, UCDP’s assessment models and methods is studied with the consideration ofcity’s comprehensive carrying capacity. Literature survey, case study and survey arelaunched to reach a assessment model and indicator on the relationship betweenUCDP and urban carrying capacity.This dissertation has carried out innovative research in the following areas whichare discussed below.1. Build the UCDP’s evaluation model with the consideration of urban carryingcapacityUCDP and Urban Capacity is inseparable, UCDP is a direct way to improve thecity’s carrying capacity. At the same time, UCDP’s construction and operation needthe support of the city’s carrying capacity. Neglecting the relationship betweenUCDP and urban carrying capacity is not conducive to improve the city’s comprehensive carrying capacity, it will also bring a lot problems in UCDP’sconstruction and operation. Based on the new perspective, an evaluation model withconsideration of carrying capacity is built. The model proposes that in the UCDP’sstart-up phase, the UCDP’s contribution to urban carrying capacity and itsdependence on the carrying capacity should be evaluated. First, UCDP’scontribution to the carrying capacity should be assessed, only the project that canmake up for the carrying capacity gap is initiated, that is the basic criteria and meansof solving the coexistence of ‘carrying capacity shortage’ and ‘carrying capacitysurplus’. Meanwhile, it is necessary to evaluate UCDP’s dependence on urbancarrying capacity. Whether city’s natural carrying capacity, economic carryingcapacity, infrastructure carrying capacity and social carrying capacity supportUCDP’s construction and operation should also be assessed in order to avoid anumber of issues happened to a lot of UCDPs.2. Build a new UCDP’s influential evaluation indicatorThe success of UCDP is influenced and constrained by city’s carrying capacity.Literature study and case study are applied on the impact and constraint factors ofUCDP’ success, and urban natural environment, urban infrastructure, urban economicand urban social---four carrying capacity elements are identified and verified, and theevaluation indicator of UCDP influenced by carrying capacity is built. The articleuses questionnaire to score these indicators by the professionals, to make sure thescientificity and effectiveness of index system.3. Promotion method of UCDP’s inadequate carrying capacity is proposedA normative method is used to analyze the basic connotation of carryingcapacity to get a promotion method when UCDP’s carrying capacity is not enough.The basic connotation of the carrying capacity has two aspects, one is the source ofpressure and the other is the bearing pressure systems. Whether it is on the range ofthe carrying capacity not only depends on ability of the bearing pressure system, italso depends on the strength of the pressure source. Now, the method to improvethe carrying capacity is usually through enhancement of the bearing pressure system,while in some cases, reduce the strength of the pressure source is the only way toinprove the inadequate carrying capacity. The city’s infrastructure inadequate carrying capacity can sometimes be made up by self-built by UCDP, while naturalenvironment, economic and social carrying capacity can not easily be changed, so theUCDP’s size and construction programs must be adapted to the level of the currentcarrying capacity.更多还原