【作者】 周利安；

【导师】 陈英武；

【作者基本信息】 国防科学技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 有线数字电视(Cable Digital Television，CADTV)项目的成败，不仅取决于技术先进与否、资金雄厚与否，更取决于管理水平如何，特别是对CADTV项目风险管理。如何有效地识别CADTV项目、评估CADTV项目风险并有效控制CADTV项目风险，是CADTV项目有效进行的前提。本文在系统分析CADTV项目风险管理需求的基础上，总结了项目风险管理的现状，系统地、深入地研究了CADTV项目的风险管理中基本问题，提出了CADTV项目风险管理的基本框架，从关键风险识别、风险评估、风险分担及对策分析等三个方面进行了深入的研究。本文的主要研究内容和创新研究成果如下：(1)在现有风险管理研究的基础上，研究了CADTV项目的组成，CADTV项目风险管理的定义、特点、目标和基本原则，并在此基础上分析了CADTV项目风险管理的需求，为CADTV项目风险管理的研究提供了概念基础。(2)建立了CADTV项目风险管理的基本框架，本框架将所有风险管理活动分成风险识别、风险评估、风险对策分析等三大部分，该框架为CADTV项目风险管理提供了可操作的实用指南。(3)阐述了项目风险识别的概念、提出了项目风险的三维定性结构，在此基础上进行了CADTV项目关键风险因素识别过程设计。在相关CADTV研究报告、作者亲历的CADTV项目实践、项目访谈的基础上进行了CADTV项目潜在风险因素假设，并以此为调查问卷内容设计调查问卷。利用风险辨识方法对CADTV项目风险进行分类和辨析，构建CADTV项目风险层次模型，系统总结分析了CADTV项目风险因素，并且通过问卷调查和统计分析，对CADTV项目风险风险因素进行了定量实证分析，筛选出CADTV项目9大关键风险因子和25个关键风险变量和5个风险后果。(4)建立CADTV项目风险评估框架，该框架包括基于统计分析的指标体系的验证方法、基于MACBETH方法的交互指标体系定权模型和基于模糊综合评估的CADTV项目风险计算模型，解决了CADTV项目风险评估问题，使CADTV项目风险管理更加具有针对性和有效性，有利于对CADTV项目实施有效的风险管理。(5)在风险评估结果的基础上，针对运营框架、技术方案、信息内容等主要风险源进行了详细的对策分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 CADTV (Cable Digital Television) project’s success depends not only on thetechnologically advanced or not, a strong financial background or not, more dependingon how the management level, especially for project risk management. How toeffectively identify CADTV projects, how to manage CADTV project risk assessmentand effective control CADTV Project risk are a prerequisite for the effectiveimplementation of the CADTV project. On the basis of analysing the CADTV projectrisk management needs of Hunan province, this paper summarizes the status of projectrisk management, and systematic, in-depth study the basic problem of the CADTVproject risk management, the basic framework of CADTV project risk management ispresented. The key risk identification, risk assessment, countermeasure analysis andrisk-sharing are depth researched. The main research content and innovative results areas follows:(1) On the basis of the existing research of risk management, the composing ofCADTV project is studied. The characteristics, objectives and basic principles ofCADTV are studied. Then CADTV project risk management is analyzed. Theconceptual basis for research of CADTV project risk management needs is provided.(2) The basic framework of CADTV project risk management is established, allrisk management activities will be divided into three large groups: risk identification,risk assessment and response analysis, risk-sharing in the framework. The frameworkprovides a practical guide to operational for CADTV project risk management.(3) Sets out to identify the concept of project risk, present the project risk of thethree-dimensional characterization of the structure, then the process of identificationkey risk factors of CADTV projects is designed. Based on the related study of CADTVand the author’s experience of the practice of CADTV projects, potential risk factors ofCADTV project are assumed, and use it as the content to design the question of thequestionnaire. The risk of CADTV project is classified and identified. The hierarchicalmodel of CADTV project risk is build. And through a questionnaire survey andstatistical analysis, the risk factors for CADTV project are quantitative empiricalanalysis. The9Items of the key risk factors and25key variables of the risk and5riskconsequences are presented.(4) The risk assessment framework of CADTV project is established. Theframework includes: the verification method of indicators system based on statisticalanalysis, the model of determining the right to cross-index system based on theMACBETH method, the calculation model of CADTV project risk based on the FuzzyComprehensive Evaluation method. The problem of CADTV item risk assessment issolved, so that CADTV project risk management is more targeted and effective. (5) Based on the risk assessment results and the calculation of risk-sharing. Fivemain risk sources and risk-sharing and the distribution of benefits, the business model,technology, information content are analyzed detailedly.更多还原