【作者】 汪莹；

【导师】 黄新；

【作者基本信息】 南京林业大学 ， 森林工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 近年来，随着社会经济的讯速发展，我国城市化水平日益提高，城市交通面临着巨大的挑战和考验，其交通安全问题显得尤为突出。城市道路交叉口作为各类交通流交汇的节点，其交通安全状况相对而言较差，交通事故容易发生，因此不仅影响了整个交通系统的安全，而且也在一定程度上影响到整个城市的发展。如何对城市道路交叉口的安全进行科学合理的评价是交通领域的主要研究内容之一，也是提高交叉口安全性能必须解决的问题。本文以此为出发点，就如何构建城市道路交叉口安全评价指标体系，建立安全评价模型，以及对模型计算结果进行量化进行了研究和探讨，其主要工作和研究成果如下：（1）为了在简单、快捷评价交叉口交通安全状况的同时，保证评价的准确度，本文通过对常见评价方法（基于交通事故的安全评价和基于交通冲突的安全评价）的评价思路归纳和总结，分析其不足之处，从导致交叉口不安全的实质或原因角度出发，提出利用安全服务水平作为城市道路平面交叉口的安全评价。（2）针对我国城市交通特有的混合特性，在对城市道路交叉口进行功能性分类的基础上，从城市道路平面交叉口及其附近所组成的交通系统中的人、车、路及环境四大组成要素出发，较完整的归纳出影响城市道路平面交叉口安全的诸多影响因素，并通过对影响因素的定性和定量分析，筛选出评价指标，构建了四层次交叉口安全评价指标体系。（3）通过分析常见的交通安全评价方法，以基于灰色关联度的模糊层次理论为基础，并以安全评价指标体系所涵括的内容为出发点，建立了交叉口安全评价模型，该模型以造成交叉口不安全的本质——冲突点情况（个数、类型及严重程度）为核心，考虑交通流量变化等动态因素及交通物理特征等静态因素对交叉口安全带来的影响综合而成。（4）根据3σ质量管理控制理论，以及和现行的城市道路服务水平划分层次相一致，本文以安全评价模型的计算结果危险度数值作为中心线，将城市道路交叉口的安全服务水平划分为四个等级，制定了等级标准，并对相应的安全服务水平进行了定性描述。在此基础上，针对安全服务水平等级为三级及以下的交叉口，提出了详细的安全改善措施，以提高交叉口的安全性。（5）考虑到基于安全服务水平的交叉口安全评价方法涉及到的评价指标较多，为了提高评价效率，采用Microsoft Visual Studio2012作为开发平台，按照安全评价模型应用的步骤，设计了交叉口安全评价系统软件程序，并通过实际工程实例的应用，验证了评价模型的合理性和评价系统软件程序的实用性，结果达到了预期目标。基于安全服务水平的交叉口安全评价方法以安全服务水平等级作为安全评价的标准，评价结果直观，数据采集方便，不仅可以为交叉口的安全设计、安全改造提供一定的参考标准，而且还为使用者提供了一个了解交叉口所具有的基本条件能达到一种什么样的服务质量标准，将交叉口的交通安全上升到了交叉口的一种服务，有很好的应用前景。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with the news fast development of social economy, the urbanization level isincreasing day by day in our country, the urban traffic is faced with great challenges and tests, thetraffic safety problem is particularly prominent. Intersection nodes of all kinds of trafficintersection, the traffic safety situation is relatively poor, prone to traffic accidents, thus not onlyaffected the safety of the transportation system, but also to a certain extent, affect thedevelopment of the whole city.How to carry on the scientific and reasonable evaluation on thesafety of the intersection is one of the main research content in the field of transportation,improve the intersection safety must solve the problem. This article as a starting point, safetyevaluation index system, how to build the intersection safety evaluation model is set up, and toquantify the model calculation results are studied and discussed, the main work and researchresults are as follows.(1)In order to easy and quick evaluation of intersection traffic safety conditions at the sametime, guarantee the accuracy of the evaluation, this article through to the common evaluationmethods (based on the safety evaluation of traffic accidents and safety assessment based ontraffic conflict evaluation idea of induction and summary, analysis of the shortcomings, from thenature or cause of the intersection is not safe Angle, put forward using the safety gradeintersection service level for urban road safety evaluation.(2)Specific to the mixing characteristics of urban traffic characteristic, the urban roadintersection, on the basis of functional classification, from near the urban road grade intersectionand traffic system consisting of a person, vehicle, road and environment in the four majorelements of the integrated urban road grade intersection which affect safety of many influencefactors, and through the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the influence factors, evaluationindexes, four hierarchy intersection safety evaluation index system is constructed.(3)Analyzing common traffic safety evaluation method, based on fuzzy hierarchy based ongrey correlation theory, and to include the contents of safety evaluation index system as thestarting point and the intersection safety evaluation model was established, the model in order tocause unsafe intersections, the nature of the conflict situation (the number, type and severity) asthe core, considering the dynamic factors such as changes in traffic flow and traffic intersectionsafety static factors such as physical characteristics of the impact of combination and into. (4)According to the3sigma quality management control theory, and the current urban roadservice level of the hierarchy is consistent, based on the calculation result of safety evaluationmodel of risk value as the center line, the safety service level of urban road intersection is dividedinto four grades, formulated the standard grade, and has carried on the qualitative description tothe corresponding safety service level. On this basis, in view of the security service levels for theintersection of level3and below, the detailed safety improvement measures are put forward, inorder to improve the safety of the intersection.(5)In consideration of the intersection safety service level is a complete set of traffic safetyevaluation system, many indexes are involved.In order to improve the evaluation efficiency,through the analysis of the intersection safety evaluation model and steps, using Microsoft VisualStudio2012as a development platform, and compiled the intersection safety evaluation systemsoftware program,.Through the actual engineering example proves the rationality of theevaluation model and evaluation system software program is practical, the result has reached theexpected goal.Urban road intersection traffic safety assessment based on level of service of safety use thesecurity service level as a standard of safety evaluation, the evaluation results intuitive,convenient data acquisition, can not only for the safety of the intersection design, safetyrenovation to provide certain reference standards, but also provides the user with anunderstanding of intersection with the basic conditions to achieve a kind of what kind of qualityof service standards, increased the intersection traffic safety to intersection of a service that has agood application prospect.更多还原