【作者】 刘俊；

【导师】 张智光；

【作者基本信息】 南京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 造纸术是中国古代的“四大发明”之一，在人类历史留下了灿烂的一页。二十一世纪信息时代、电子时代的来临也没能动摇纸产品在社会各方面发展中的重要地位。中国的森林资源比较有限，由于长期的砍伐和利用，全国不少地区的可利用资源已经濒临枯竭。传统林、浆、纸三个环节分离的模式已经造成了原材料供应需求很大，这必然造成木材资源供应的缺口。纸张生产和林木资源一体化的模式可以抵御由于原材料价格的波动带来的企业生存危机，保证林木资源长期稳定供应；同时，一体化集团内部进行利益的再分配，实现整体利益的最大化，能够抵御外部经济的波动给集团企业带来的冲击。林纸一体化供应链原料供应管理是林纸供应链管理最核心的部分，原料供应管理的目标是能保证造纸使用的植物纤维稳定可持续地供应，避免原料价格出现剧烈的波动和原料供应的短缺。目前林纸集团木片库存积压严重，造成原料时间性损耗严重和原料质量下降；纸产品的库存不能在短期内消化，造成资金的大量占用；产能在纸产品的品种上分配不合理，不能最大限度的满足客户对纸产品的需求；不能实现均衡生产，导致生产运作成本较高。针对这些情况，本文提出了林纸供应链原料供应短期优化的综合性解决方案。林纸供应链原料供应短期优化首先是对纸产品的销售进行预测，然后基于销售预测的结果进行排产优化，使产能合理分配，最后基于排产优化的结果，制定木材纤维原料的供应策略和供应计划。通过林纸供应链原料供应的短期优化，实现造纸原料的需求与供给平衡，既保证企业生产的平顺性，又实现节约型生产，降低林纸集团的生产运作成本，提高纸产品的收益率。文中以HF公司为例，进行了林纸供应链原料供应短期优化的应用研究，取得了较好的效果。为了规避了中长期木材原料的供应短缺、产能过剩等风险，保证林纸集团造纸用木材的供应安全，实现造纸木材原料的可持续供应；实现林木的经济价值、生态效益、社会效益相统一，促进林业经济和区域生态的可持续发展，在此前提下实现林木经济价值的最大化，即采取合理的采伐方案和林地种植面积实现林地木材产出的最大化。为了实现以上目标，本文建立了林纸供应链原料供应的中长期仿真控制系统。首先，完成仿真计算前的准备工作，包括建立仿真运算约束环境（纸张销量预测模型、木材采购预测模型和林木生长模型），设置仿真控制目标（战略规划期，可控林地形成稳定木材供应的目标过度期和木材过度期之后木材的对外依存率），输入仿真控制变量（林地的种植面积，林木的砍伐方案和林木战略储备水平）；然后，进行林纸供应链原料供应中长期仿真计算，并输出仿真结果（战略规划期内每年林地砍伐的木材量，战略规划期内每年采购的木材量，战略规划期内每年缺口的木材量，仿真结束时活立木的蓄积量，单位林地平均参考经济价值，战略规划期内可控林地形成稳定木材供应的过渡期，战略规划期内每年木材的对外依存率）；分析仿真结果，对于部分年度出现木材自给供应不足和市场供应短缺的情况，仿真控制系统提供建议解决方案，即通过增加虚拟林地的供应，解决了木材原料供应短缺的问题；比较仿真输出结果，调整仿真控制变量，再次进行仿真运算；最后，遴选优秀仿真方案作为决策备选方案。林纸供应链原料供应的短期优化和中长期仿真与ERP系统的集成解决了优化和仿真可重用性和柔性差的难题。对于ERP系统来说，优化和仿真的功能是其决策支持的重要组成部分，随着企业对战略决策和优化的越来越重视，以及仿真和优化的理论和方法越来越成熟，ERP中决策支持模块将成为判断ERP竞争能力的重要指标。更多还原

【Abstract】 Papermaking was one of the "four great inventions" of ancient China, and left a brilliantpage in the history of mankind. Information age of the21st century, the advent of the electronicage could not shake the important position of paper products in the development of all sectorsof society. China’s forest resources are relatively limited, due to the long-term deforestation andthe available resources in many areas of the country are on the verge of depletion. Thetraditional mode of seperation of forest, pulp and paper has caused a great demand for thesupply of raw materials, which will inevitably lead to the supply gap of timber resource. Themodel of Forestry-Paper integration that can withstand the enterprises to survive the crisis dueto fluctuations in the prices of raw materials, to ensure a steady supply of long-term forestresources; At the same time, the internal redistribution of interests in integration Group in orderto maximize the overall interests of grouping can resist the impact of external economicfluctuations to the Group’s business.Supply management of raw materials in Forestry-Paper integration supply chain is themost central part of Forestry-Paper integration supply chain. The objective of supplymanagements of raw materials is to ensure the sustainable supply of timber used inpapermaking plant to avoid dramatic fluctuations of raw material prices and supplyshortages ofraw materials.Currently, the serious backlog of wood chips in Forest&Paper Group has caused serioustimber loss and the descending in the quality of timber; Inventory of paper products can not besold in the short term, to cause capital occupied; Unreasonable distribution of productioncapacity on a variety of paper products, could not maximize to meet customer demand for paperproducts; Balanced production can not be achieved, to result in higher cost of production andoperation. For these situations, a comprehensive solution to optimization of short-term supplyof raw materials was proposed. Firstly, the optimization of Short-term supply of raw materialswas to predict the sales of paper products, then according to the results of the sales forecasting,production capacity was rationally allocated, and finally the strategy and planning of supply ofraw materials was scheduled. Short-term optimization of supply of raw material was helpful torealize the balance of demand and supply of materials. Not only smooth production but alsoeconomical production were achieved, the costs of production and operating was reduced, andthe yield of the paper products was improved.In order to avoid long-term supply shortages of raw material, overcapacity, and to ensurethe sustainable supply of timber in Forest&Paper Group, and on the premise of realizing theunification of the economic value, the forest ecological benefits and social benefits, promotingsustainable development of forestry economic and regional ecological, achieving themaximization of the economic value of the forest was required. In order to achieve the aboveobjectives, the long-term simulation control system of material supply based on Forestry-Papersupply chain was established. Firstly, preparation was ready for simulation, includingestablishment of the simulation constraint environment—paper sales forecasting model, timberprocurement forecasting model and tree growth model, the goal of simulation control was set—strategic planning， supply transition period of controllable woodland which formed a stable wood supply and the rate of timber external dependency, and the simulation variables was input—woodland quantity, tree felling programs and forest strategic reserve level; then calculation oflong-term simulation based on Forestry-Paper supply chain was executed and simulation resultswas put out—the amount of harvesting wood per year during strategic planning period, theamount of wood purchased each year during the strategic planning, the amount of shortage ofwood during strategic planning period, the volume of live trees at the end of the simulation, theaverage referenced economic value per woodland, supply transition period of controllablewoodland which formed a stable wood supply during strategic planning period, and the rate oftimber external dependency during strategic planning period; Suggest solutions to solve theproblem of shortage of wood supply by increasing the supply of virtual woodland; Compare theoutput of simulations, adjust the simulation control variables, and ran simulation again; Finally,select excellent simulation programs as decision-making options.The problems of poor reusability and flexibility of optimization and simulation weresolved by the integration of short-term optimization and long-term simulation of supply of rawmaterials based on Forestry-Paper supply chain with ERP system.Optimization and simulation were important parts of their decision-making support in ERPsystems. With the increasing emphasis on strategic decision-making and optimization, and moreand more mature of the theories and methods of simulation and optimization, supportingdecision-making in ERP system would be an important indicator to determine thecompetitiveness of ERP.更多还原