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天津滨海新区人才需求预测与人才竞争力评价研究

Research on Forecasting of Labor Demand and Competitiveness of Labor Force of Tianjin Binhai New Area

【作者】 邢洁

【导师】 赵涛;

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 , 管理科学与工程, 2011, 博士

【摘要】 中央将滨海新区纳入全国战略布局以来,给滨海新区带来了难得的历史性机遇,“十二五”时期更是实现国家对新区功能定位决战决胜的关键时期,急需大量的人才支撑。本文认为,区域人才竞争力的水平与发展态势如何,如何增强人才竞争比较优势、提高人才使用效能、创新人才发展体制机制,最终提升该区域人才竞争力的途径是什么,都需要通过构建区域人才竞争力评价指标体系来明确和解决。本文以区域竞争力理论为基础,借鉴国家及城市竞争力评价模型,设计了独立的区域人才竞争力评价体系的理论框架,构建了区域内子区域人才竞争力的动态演进模型和独立的区域人才竞争力总体评价模型,对滨海新区人才竞争力进行实证检验,找出滨海新区人才竞争力演进变化规律和提升的空间及对策措施。对滨海新区人才总体状况进行了详尽的分析,对人才的数量和质量做出定性和定量的分析。运用预测理论构建人才需求的预测模型,使用多元回归模型构造预测方程,指出滨海新区未来发展人才供需变化趋势,并做出相应的对策分析。设计和构建了子区域人才竞争力动态分析模型,从总体经济实力、人才现实竞争力、人才投入和产出竞争力以及人才环境竞争力维度上对滨海新区不同时点上,五个主要子区域的人才竞争力进行测定,以计量分析方法对自建区以来各子区域人才竞争力的演变规律进行了测算,又定性分析了人才竞争力分布不平衡的历史和现实原因,提出了对策建议和措施。借鉴国家和城市人才竞争力评价的方法,构建了区域人才竞争力评价指标体系,独立地对中国三大经济圈的重要区域进行了人才竞争力评价的实证研究,运用MATLAB网络环境建立基于遗传算法的神经网络模型评价模型,对我国三大经济圈五个重要区域的人才竞争力进行了测算和排序,证实了滨海新区的人才竞争力在全国所处的位置,并提出对策建议和措施。

【Abstract】 With the integration into the national development strategy andentering into the “12th FIVE year plan” time, Tianjin Binhai New Area isgoing into a critical period to realize and win the new orientation of thearea, as a result, requiring for a large amount of qualified labors andtalents to fulfill the mission. Furthermore, the ultimate success ofdevelopment and openness of Binhai New Area attribute to the capacityof its people. The only way to guarantee the development andcompetitiveness of its workforce is to acquire and maintains thecompetitiveness of its talents. Therefore, in order to assesscompetitiveness of labor force of an area, how to raise comparativeadvantage of talent’s competitiveness, enhance effectiveness of laborusage, create talent’s development, and finally improve competitivenessof labor force, this paper propose a point of view that constructing ancriterion measuring system of competitiveness of labor force of the regionis essential. Basing on Regional Competitiveness Theory and thereference of evaluation models of countries or cities, this research designsa theoretical framework for an independent evaluation system of regionalcompetitiveness of talents, constructs a dynamic assessment model of theevolution of competitiveness of talents and an independent evaluationmodel of overall competitiveness of the regional talents, on which itmakes an empirical research of talent’s competitiveness of Tianjin BinhaiNew Area. The research results unravel the rules of evolution ofcompetitiveness of labor force, identifies the space for improvements anda set of countermeasures.The research provides quantitative and qualitative analysis of thequantity and quality of labor force thorough analysis of the overallsituation of the talent pool of Tianjin Binhai New Area; establishes alabor demand forecasting model by utilizing forecasting theory and pointsout the future trend of labor demand through construction linearregression equation under multi-regression analysis, and presentscountermeasure at last.This paper design a dynamic analysis model for assessment of evolution of talent’s competitiveness of the five sub areas, whichmeasures the competitiveness of labor force of five sub-area in differenttime point from such divisions as overall economic capacity, talent realitycompetitiveness, talent input and output competitiveness and talentenvironment competitiveness, in order to measure and estimate theevolution rules of the competitiveness of labor force of Binhai New Areasince its establishment.This research conducts an empirical analysis of competitiveness oflabor force of the key region of China Three Economic Circle, by whichit measures and ranks the competitiveness of regional labor force byArtificial Neural Network in MATLAB environment, basing on modelingan independent measuring criterion system of overall competitiveness ofregional labor force. At last, we proofs the position of competitiveness oftalents in the country’s major economic areas and presents solutions andsuggestions.

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 天津大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2014年 06期
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