【作者】 李昊；

【导师】 赵道致；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 本文围绕供应链管理领域出现的力量不对等现象和低碳化供应链问题展开研究，采用基于Agent的仿真方法，对所研究问题中供应链参与方的行为进行仿真建模，在不确定市场环境以及主体行为的复杂条件下，进行多情境多周期的仿真实验，通过对仿真结果所展现出来的发展趋势与对比关系，为供应链企业运营优化的演化路径和决策制定提供参考。本文的主要内容和创新点包括：1、通过仿真方法对零售商主导的供应链协调进行研究。在包含制造商与零售商的两级供应链和包含制造商、零售商和消费者的三级供应链的协调机制中，深入研究了零售商占主导地位时，如何进行整个供应链各参与方利益协调优化问题。引入了供应链企业行为因素和复杂不确定市场环境，采用计算机仿真的方法来考察在不确定条件下双方利润演化模式，以此找出能够促进供应链优化的协调定价机制。2、低碳化供应链的提出与研究。低碳化供应链概念的提出与问题的提炼，具有很强的社会背景和现实意义，也是供应链研究领域的新的研究着眼点。本文在低碳化供应链概念与相关影响因素的梳理过程中，提炼出在一个现实的供应链系统中，对参与方各方利润产生影响的主导因素，建立了具有原材料提供商、制造商、零售商和消费者的多级供应链模型，并引入主体决策的动态特性以及多主体之间的交互性进行了研究。3、基于主体行为的碳排放权交易机制研究。在低碳化供应链仿真研究的基础上，同样采用基于主体行为的仿真方法对供应链参与方的碳排放权交易机制进行了比较研究，分析了在不同的交易机制下，供应链参与方不同行为决策时，交易各项指标对供应链个体以及总体的影响。4、基于复杂理论的供应链问题研究。采用基于主体Agent仿真的方法去研究供应链问题，将供应链看成一个复杂的自组织系统，通过内部行为以及动态的演化机制来分析具体问题。基于Agent的企业行为仿真，关键的问题在于分析供应链中企业的自有属性、行为规则、学习模式、决策规则以及外部环境特征和演化机制等。这些也是本文研究的重点和难点所在。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper focuses on phenomena of unbalanced bargaining power andlow-carbon in the search field of supply chain management, uses Agent-basedsimulation method by simulation modeling of the behavior problems in supply chainparticipants. It studies in an uncertain market environment, and main behavior undercomplex conditions through multi-situational and multi-cycle simulation. Thedevelopment trends and comparison between the simulation results provide areference to develop optimal evolution path for the supply chain of businessoperations and decision-making.The main content and innovation of the paper include:1. In the research of supply chain coordination mechanism, the paper studied theoptimization problem of retailers dominated the entire supply chain and how theinterests of all parties to coordinate. This paper studied the two-echelon supply chainwith manufacturers and retailers and three-echelon include manufacturers, retailersand consumers, the leading retailer pricing mechanism as a starting point,introduced the corporate behavior factors and complexity of uncertainty in the supplychain market environment, using computer simulation methods to examine theevolution model under conditions of uncertainty, both sides profit, in order to identifyinstitutions that promoted the coordination of supply chain optimization pricingmechanism.2. The refining of low-carbon supply chain concepts and problems is a strongsocial background and practical significance, but also supply chain research areas ofnew research focus. This paper extracted the concept of low-carbon supply chain andrelated factors in the combing process and the dominant factor in a realistic supplychain system with the participant parties profit impact. Based on the traditional supplychain, the paper introduced the low-carbon factors, established a multi-stage supplychain model with raw material providers, manufacturers, retailers and consumers, andintroduced the dynamic characteristics of the main decision-making, multi-subjectinteraction problem.3. On the basis of the low carbon supply chain simulation study, the paper carriedout a comparative study and analyzed the participants of supply chain in the differenttrading mechanisms by the same simulation method based on the principal behaviorof the supply chain that participated in the carbon emissions trading scheme and different behavior decisions to find the indicators of the transaction supply chainindependent of each body, and overall impact.4. The paper used Agent-based simulation method to study the problem of thesupply chain as a complex self-organizing system, through the internal behavior andthe dynamic evolution of mechanisms to analyze specific issues. Agent-BasedEnterprise behavioral simulation, the key question is to analyze the supply chainenterprise’s own property, rules of conduct, mode of learning, decision-making rules,and external environmental characteristics and evolutionary mechanisms. These arealso the focus and difficulties of this study.更多还原