【作者】 宋倜；

【导师】 魏连雨；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 结构工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 有异于一般的产品物流，工程物流具有独特性、复杂性等特点，工程物流的很多服务需要根据现场条件以及物流对象性质来确定服务内容与方式，工程物流系统的运行状况直接影响了项目的工期、成本等。工程物流需要专业的设施设备完成物流活动，工程项目本身通常无力承担全部的物流活动。随着物流市场细分，工程物流成为物流服务商追逐利润的重要领域。对项目而言，选择工程物流服务商的同时意味着存在物流外包风险；对工程物流服务商而言，工程物流能够带来丰厚利润，由于业务的复杂性，也存在巨大的风险。为了工程项目顺利进行，有必要对项目的物流系统的风险进行全面管理。目前对工程物流风险的研究，仅关注风险管理的某一方面，对工程物流风险的评价研究比较多。本文从我国的物流发展实践出发，结合风险管理的基础理论，对工程物流的风险管理进行了全面的分析。以狭义的工程物流即建筑项目物流为研究对象，分析了工程项目的基本的物流运作模式，指出第三方物流模式会有更加广泛的应用。通过对工程物流风险的特点分析，分析了工程物流风险管理的概念，基本原则和管理目标，对工程物流风险管理的内容进行了研究，提出工程物流风险管理的工作程序。风险管理的过程包括风险识别、风险估计与分析、风险评价、风险控制与应对。每一个过程又根据风险管理的对象可以应用不同的方法来完成。风险识别是风险管理的基本工作，风险识别工作的好坏构成了风险管理是否有效的基础。在工程物流的风险识别中，通过对工程物流的业务内容、工程物流所处环境、工程物流的风险因素及可能后果的分析，利用以美国风险管理和工程系统中心（CRMES）开发的风险评级与过滤方法(RFM）为基础改进的RFRM(风险过滤评级与管理RiskFiltering,RankingandManagementFramework)方法，结合等级全息建模方法对工程物流的风险因素进行了识别。建立了由技术、经济、操作、管理等9个主因素以及其细分的41个二级因素组成的工程物流风险识别的等级全息模型（HHM）。通过RFRM的工作程序，对工程物流风险进行了过滤，得出工程物流需要重点关注的风险情景。工程物流的风险估计与风险评价没有绝对界限，工程物流风险估计侧重于对物流各个过程阶段局部的单个风险利用概率论的相关理论进行估计和后果量化，风险估计没有从工程物流的总体目标上考虑风险的影响，在利用RFRM对风险进行过滤的过程中，利用贝叶斯理论对风险进行了初步量化。风险评价需要从风险估计的基础上，对所有风险事件的风险值综合考量，选出主要的影响因素，考虑工程物流所有环节的整体风险。评价方法各有优缺点，本文对适用领域比较广泛的模糊综合评价、人工神经网络法、灰色综合评价、物元评价进行了比较，建立了基于层次分析法与熵权组合赋权的物元评价模型。风险管理最好在风险损失发生前，切断风险的诱发条件，尽可能的避免风险。对于工程项目来说，基础的工作是选择合适的物流服务商。所以本文对如何选择工程物流服务商进行了研究。利用复合物元理论，通过计算欧式贴近度，建立了选择工程物流服务商的复合物元模型。在工程物流服务中，服务商采用适应性项目框架(APF)的管理模式，控制物流过程。风险应对措施还包括风险规避、风险转移等措施。本文对工程物流保险进行了研究，分析了工程物流的投保条件。在施工标段中，预制梁往往作为独立标段，承担多个桥涵的预制、运输、安装任务。预制梁的质量、运输安装作业和工期控制关系到桥梁的质量及工期，文章最后以西外环高速15标段预制梁运输为例，主要从风险识别和评价角度对预制梁运输风险进行了分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Construction project needs a large amount of steel, cement, gravel and other raw materials, and is often associated with the transportation and installation of special equipment. Project logistics is different from general products logistics.It has its own characteristics such as complexity、uniqueness etc. Many project logistics service need to determine the content of logistics services according to the site conditions and nature of the logistics object. Operating conditions of project logistics system directly affect the project schedule, quality, and cost.So the project logistics is high risk.With the logistics market segmentation, project logistics become the important field for service providers to pursue the profit. At the same time, project logistics need professional equipment to complete logistics activities, the project itself is powerless to bear all of the logistics activities.For the project to choose project logistics service providers means losing the control power of logistics activities as a result the project bears the logistics outsourcing risk.On the other side for project logistics service providers the project logistics can bring rich and generous profit.But because of the complexity of the business,the logistics are full of huge risk. No matter for which angle, it is necessary to manage the project logistics risk in order to carry out the project smoothly.This paper analyzes the risk of project logistics based on the combination of the basic theory of risk management and Chinese logistics development practice. According to the status of China’s logistics development present situation and the risk management theory applying present situation, project logistics risk management present situation and the existing problems are analyzed. Put forward project logistics risk management research.. Through the analysis of the project logistics risk management concepts,characteristics,principles, target, content and working program of project logistics risk management was discussed. Combined with the basic theory of risk management, the project logistics risk management theory system was improved.The process of the risk management includes risk identification, risk estimate and analysis, risk assessment, risk control and countermeasures. Each process can use different methods to accomplish according to risk management object. Risk identification is the basic work of risk management; risk identification work quality is the basis of risk management effective. Analyze the project logistics business content, project logistics environment, project logistics risk factors and possible consequences in the project logistics risk recognition. Using improved RFRM (Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management Framework)method which was development based on RRF (Risk Ranking and Filtering Method) explored by CRMES (Center for Risk Management of Engineering System) combined with the hierarchical holographic modeling the risk factors of project logistics were identified. Project logistics risk identification model of HHM (hierarchical holographic modeling) is established which includes9main topics such as technology, economy, management, operation etc.and the subdivision of the41sub topic composition. Through RFRM procedures the41project logistics risk factors were filtered and the main risk scenarios which need focus on were getting.Project logistics risk estimation and risk assessment has no absolute limit. Project logistics risk estimation focus on individual risk of each logistics process stage using probability theory to estimate and quantify the consequences. Risk estimates were not to consider the impact of risk from the works of the overall goal of logistics. In the risk filtering process with RFRM risk was quantified preliminary by Bias theory. Risk assessment requires considering all aspects of the overall risk of project logistics and all the risk event value based on the risk estimation to choose the main influence factors. There are many evaluation methods which are of different advantages and disadvantages.The paper compared the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, data envelopment analysis, TOPSIS analysis, the matter-element evaluation because these methods are widely used.At last the matter-element evaluation model based on AHP and entropy weight to evaluate the project logistics risk was established.It had better for risk management cut the inducing conditions of risk and avoid risks as much as possible before the loss occur. For the project itself the most fundamental job is to select the appropriate logistics service providers. So this paper discusses how to choose the project logistics service providers. Composite matter-element model was established to choose project logistics service providers by using matter element theory and calculating the Euclid approach degree. Risk response measures also include risk avoidance, risk transfer and other measures. In this paper, the logistics insurance and the insurance conditions was discussed and analyzed.更多还原