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基于协同理论的市矿统筹发展机理研究

Development Mechanism Research of City and Mine Collaboration Based on Synergetics Theory

【作者】 袁祖怀

【导师】 周敏;

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 , 管理科学与工程, 2013, 博士

【副题名】以淮南市为例

【摘要】 论文从我国矿业资源型城市发展面临的困难和挑战入手,依托国内外相关研究成果,在界定市矿统筹概念及系统边界的基础上,对矿业资源性城市市矿统筹发展问题进行了系统研究。主要从市矿统筹的实践中引入协同发展相关理论,对市矿统筹的机理进行分析、研究和总结,并以典型矿业资源型城市淮南市为例,对矿业城市市矿统筹发展进行实证分析。首先,对矿业资源性城市市矿统筹发展历史及现实可行性进行梳理和分析,归纳出市矿统筹是矿业城市发展的一种必然趋势这一重要结论。在此基础上,对市矿统筹发展概念进行界定。从系统划分看,市矿统筹发展系统主要包含经济、社会、城市与环境、管理这四大子系统,并具有市矿系统特有的发展规律和特征。其次,从外部因素和内部因素两个方面分析市矿统筹发展的影响因素。外部因素主要包括政策、市场、社会文化等因素。内部因素主要包括经济、社会、城市与环境、管理等四个子系统方面的因素。在内外部因素分析基础上,利用结构方程模型构建影响因素的结构与体系并进行相关性分析。研究发现,除产业结构等少数因素外,其余因素对市矿统筹均有着不同程度的显著影响。然后,在影响因素结构与体系分析基础上,分别从市矿统筹系统发展动力、系统演化机理、系统发展路径与优化三个方面研究市矿统筹发展机理。第一,市矿统筹系统发展动力主要体现在推力、拉力、阻力和压力四个方面。在利用振动力学模型分析动力作用机理的基础上,以淮南市为例,对市矿统筹发展的推力、拉力、阻力和压力进行解析,研究动力演变趋势及作用机制。研究表明,以推力和拉力为代表的正向力要大于以阻力和压力为代表的负向力,从而形成市矿统筹发展的正向动力。第二,市矿统筹系统演化机理则按照子系统内部演化、子系统之间的演化、市矿统筹发展系统的演化这一思路进行分析。分别利用协整分析、内生增长理论及哈肯模型的分析表明,市矿统筹系统不仅存在子系统内部的协同演化,也存在子系统之间的协同演化,它们的共同作用促进了市矿统筹发展系统的演化。其中,地区生产总值是市矿统筹系统运行过程中的序参量,地区生产总值和三废综合利用的协同作用有利于推动市矿统筹的快速发展。第三,从系统发展路径与优化看,市矿统筹系统变量主要从城市发展和矿业发展两个着力点切入,通过对市矿产业发展、产业结构调整、城乡居民收入、居住及出行等方面进行综合统筹推动市矿统筹发展。利用系统动力学模型对市矿统筹系统的分析表明,提高市矿统筹发展水平需要长期、持续的投入,投资比例的合理性及管理水平是影响市矿统筹总水平的重要因素。进而,利用DEA模型对我国34个典型矿业城市市矿统筹系统发展效率的测度表明,我国34个典型矿业城市中,有27个城市属于市矿统筹系统协同发展DEA有效,它们均处于规模报酬不变阶段,已达到技术和规模上的有效。最后,利用博弈论对市矿统筹发展制度体系进行理论分析,并从建立沟通与协调机制、完善市场机制、构建产业发展机制、建立技术创新体系、建立社会发展新体制、完善生态环境保护机制等方面对市矿统筹发展进行制度设计,并提出相应的政策与建议。

【Abstract】 Most of China’s resource-based cities, especially cities based on coal resource,were started as mine enterprises and developed into cities afterwards. The relationshipbetween cities and enterprises has had direct impact on the overall development ofcities as well as the largen and strengthen of enterprises. Senior leaders from everylevel are highly concerned about it, thus the proposition of balancing urban and minedevelopment was put forward.The dissertation takes the typical resource-based city Huainan as an example,starts from the practice of coordination of the city and mines, introduces relativetheory, makes summary, analysis and studies of the mechanism of city and minecoordination, and conducts an empirical analysis based on the effectiveness ofeconomic and social development and the data collected in Huainan.The article extracted many theoretical conclusions of relationship andcollaborative development of city and mine from a large number of researchliteratures about resource cities. Many successful experiences and failures from thepractices of city and mine collaborative development home and abroad is figured out.It explores the mechanism of city and mine collaborative development on the basis oftheoretical exploration and practice sum-up. Under the wide theoretical background ofmany theories such as Synergetics, Eonomics, Game Theory, System Dynamics andso on, it takes deep consideration of the practical experience of coordination betweencity and mine, draws lessons from many academic researches, proposes andestablishes the first innovative theory framework of this article, namely City and MineCollaboration System which promotes the common development of city and mine andis consists of four major subsystems, economic development subsystem, managementsubsystem, urban and environment subsystem, social development subsystem.The system of City and Mine Collaboration is complex. The dissertationanalyzes the collaborative mechanism of the four major subsystems, including thecollaborative mechanism research on economic development based on Cobb-DouglasFunction, the collaborative mechanism research on urban environment, urban andsociety based on Econometrics, the collaborative research on urban management andenterprise management system along with the main line of Game Theory, the structureand establishment of collaborative development model of city and mine collaborative economic growth subsystems and social development subsystems on the basis ofEndogenous Growth Theory, and empirical demonstration according to KuznetsovTheory.Studies the influencing factors to the coordination of city and mine and theimpact on the city and mine coordination exerted by industrial development based onthe analysis of factor loadings and three times of industrial structure transition in mineand non-mine industry; researches the urban environmental system of city and minecoordination from three dimensions:urban functions, urban efficiency, urban structurecompetitiveness; analyzes the city and mine co-ordinative system from the angle ofsocial development based on social elements utilization, historical and characteristicculture, and public service capacity; studies urban and environmental system on thebasis of environmental regulation, effective mechanism of environmentalcomprehensive governance, scientific technology of mine; analyzes the fluctuationmechanism, control mechanism, explicit-implicit mechanism of city and minecollaboration theoretically with the application of Synthetics Theory, elaborates thecollaborative development trends and effects of city and mine.After system structuring and mechanism analyzing,this paper ascertains thesynergetic order parameters of the four subsystems of City and Mine Collaboration,demonstrates twelve order parameters of economic development system under theprinciple of scientific, stable, universal and feasible, sets eight order parameters ofsocial development system under the premise of consisting with social developmentmechanism of general cities; determines thirteen order parameters of city andenvironment system under the conditions of the special background of mining citiesand taking into account the principle of feasibility, identifies six order parameters ofmanagement system in accordance with the current development status of mininigcities amid transformation, combining with principle of China’s market economycharacteristics. The co-ordination of city of mine identifies a total of forty four orderparameters.Using System Dynamics as foundation and forty four order parameters of foursystems as a variable relationship, establishes a simulation model of City and MineCollaboration, draws a casual relationship diagram of City and Mine CollaborationSystem, intuitively describes the complexity of City and Mine Collaboration, analysesthe logical relationship and influence of the system, confirms the weight of variables.Time series data of44order parameters for the past decade of Huainan are collected through great efforts. According to panel data and hands-on classification andcalculation, and by making use of computer software to carry out complexcalculations, City and Mine Coordination simulation conclusions are obtained, such asinfluencing factors to the co-ordination is complex, period is long, the influence ofinvestment and investment ratio over the development of the overall level of city andmine development, the level of management is an important factor in co-ordination ofcity and mine and so on. Drawing from the preliminary conclusions of the research,this paper presents relative policy recommendations to the city and mineco-ordination.

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