【作者】 曹松；

【导师】 刘春煌；

【作者基本信息】 中国铁道科学研究院 ， 交通信息工程及控制， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 安全是铁路运输工作的永恒主题。随着铁路运输朝着高速度、高密度、重载,技术密集、技术系统构成复杂,业务系统联动性高等方向的发展,铁路运输安全保障系统面临着许多新需求和严峻挑战。加强铁路行车安全预警理论与方法的研究,无论对于加强铁路安全管理的科学性和可靠性,预防及减少铁路事故,还是对于促进铁路健康有序、安全高效、可持续发展,都具有重要的理论和现实意义。针对国内外铁路安全预警研究工作的不足,结合目前我国铁路安全预警面临的重点问题,运用安全系统工程理论、事故致因理论、安全预警理论、信息集成理论等相关理论和方法,抓住铁路行车事故致因的本质,提出安全预警思路,研究行车安全综合集成预警框架,构建事故趋势预测、行车安全综合预警、安全状态评价等模型和方法,研究预警框架实现的若干关键技术,包括信息共享平台技术、信息融合技术、业务流程优化技术和综合预警应用技术等。主要创新点如下:(1)依据事故致因理论和行车事故实际案例数据分析,提出基于安全信息的动态-综合铁路行车安全事故致因模型。(2)建立综合集成的铁路行车安全预警框架,指出若干需解决的关键技(3)从三个方面研究提出了安全预警模型。针对铁路事故的宏观预测,提出了灰色系统预测方法和时间序列预测方法的组合预测方法;针对行车安全综合预警,提出了网络化综合预警模型形式化描述;针对铁路安全状况评价,建立了铁路安全状态指标体系和评价方法。(4)对铁路安全预警领域中信息集成的相关关键技术进行了重点研究。包括自主研发出分布式数据协同中间件、铁路安全监控系统互操作平台和面向安全监督业务的轻量级工作流系统等,并结合项目应用于实际。更多还原

【Abstract】 Safety is the eternal theme of railway transport. Especially with the rail transport developing towards high speed, high density, technology-intensive and complex technical system, the railway transport safety and security system are facing new demands and challenges. Therefore, it is significant, in theory and practice, to enhance the research on safety early warning of railway transport for the sustainable development of the railway.Aiming at the inadequacies of the research on railway safety early warning and key issues of China’s railway safety early warning, this paper applied related thearies and methods such as safety system engineering theory, accident-coursing theory, safety early warning theory, information integration theory,ect, and fuses modern and advanced management concepts, to carry out the following research areas:1. Based on accident-coursing theories and actual accident case data analysis, propose dynamic-comprehensive railway operation accident-coursing model based on safety information.2. Present metasynthetic early warning framework for railway operation safety based on safety information, analyze the key technologies to be resolved.3. In order to solve macroeconomic forecast for the railway accident, propose a combination trend forecasting method based on gray system and time series; research the formal description of the network comprehensive early-warning model; as for safety assessment, present a railway safety evaluation index system.4.A number of key technologies of information integration, including distributed data collaboration middleware, interoperability platform of railway safety monitoring system and lightweight workflow system for railway safety supervision activities are researched and developed independently, which solve the problem of how to integrate railway safety information effectively. Key Words: Railway operation safety early warning, Comprehensive evaluation, Information integration更多还原