【作者】 陈柯旭；

【导师】 范军；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 国际关系， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 本论文以地缘政治理论为视角,运用层次分析、历史研究、案例分析等技术方法,通过全面、系统地考察冷战后美国在中亚地区各个领域的渗透以及在中亚地区与其他大国的互动来剖析冷战后的美国中亚战略实质,并对美国中亚战略的功效和前景做出初步分析,旨在有助于中国清楚地认识美国的中亚战略,并做出恰当的战略应对。要研究美国的中亚战略,首先得确认美国占主导地位的战略思维。论文通过研究美国历史上的三个战略转折时期的领导人的战略思维,认为传统地缘政治思维是美国大战略的灵魂。正是在地缘政治思维的作用下,美国自建国以来的国家战略都具有权力扩张性。冷战后美国的国家战略同样受传统地缘政治战略思维所左右,凭借世界超级大国地位,白宫的新主人们决定继续追逐被冷战中断了的世界霸权梦想。在美国全球霸权战略的指导下,冷战后美国的中亚战略目标被确定为排挤俄罗斯、中国在中亚的影响力,达到削弱俄、中挑战美国世界地位的能力和奠定美国在中亚地区的绝对优势地位,同时实现孤立伊朗的目标。当美国控制中亚后,它就可以利用中亚的欧亚大陆中心地位将美国在欧亚大陆东、南、西三面的军事部署全面对接。冷战后,美国根据上述战略目标,通过政治、经济、军事和援助等手段对中亚进行渗透,逐步增强它在中亚地区的存在。政治方面,美国主要通过软硬兼施,上下兼顾的策略致力于向中亚各国输出西方式民主,使中亚国家成为美国领导的“民主大家庭”中的成员。军事方面,美国旨在按照西方模式和标准改造中亚国家。早在1994年美国就通过北约框架下的“和平伙伴关系计划”对中亚国家进行渗透。2001年“9·11”事件后,美国还在中亚建立了多个军事基地。在经济领域,美国开始试图通过修建绕过俄罗斯的中亚能源出口管道来削弱俄罗斯的影响力,进而逐步掌控中亚国家的经济命脉。发现此方案难以在近期奏效后,美国又推出“大中亚计划”。“大中亚计划”可谓是美国为了建立其在中亚的势力以及增强其在南亚地区的影响力而在地缘政治和经济方面的新创举,它希望借促进中亚国家、阿富汗、和南亚国家间的合作来实现多重战略目标。美国中亚战略的另一重要工具是政府援助。美国的援助实质上是打着道义的旗号,谋取私利的战略工具。美国实施中亚战略,必定对中亚的外部大国造成影响,从而产生互动。对于美国在中亚与大国的互动关系,可以分为两类,一是俄罗斯、中国和伊朗,他们是美国挤压、遏制的对手,另一类是美国的盟友或想要拉拢的对象。美国与俄罗斯在中亚的争夺最为激烈,两者在中亚的势力呈现出你进我退、此起彼伏的状态。俄罗斯、中国和伊朗与中亚国家的传统联系和地缘优势有利于它们之间发展关系,美国想在中亚占据绝对优势十分困难。美国对那些被其视为朋友的外部力量则加以利用,尤其是土耳其。美国最初旨在将土耳其培养成为其向中亚地区投射力量的跳板,终因土耳其自身实力不足不能胜任而放弃。总体来说,美国的中亚战略在联合盟友达成目标方面是比较薄弱的环节,没有具体的政策和机制来整合盟友的力量,主要依靠它们在中亚地区谋求基于相同价值观上的共同利益而形成的默契来相互扶持。不过,美国也越来越认识到在中亚地区集盟友之力量达成战略目标的重要性,开始呼吁盟友间加强合作。总体来看,美国的中亚战略给美国、中亚国家以及中亚地区的其它外部力量都带来了相应影响。对美国而言,是利大于弊,它已从一个无从染指中亚事务的国家变成了对中亚事务具有重大影响力的国家。美国对中亚国家的影响既有积极的一面,也有消极的一面。积极影响主要是,在一定时期内有助于中亚国家增强独立性,拓宽外交舞台,提升国际地位；另外,美国在中亚的技术和经济援助对中亚的经济发展起到了一定的促进作用；民主输出活动给中亚播下了民主的种子；军事合作增强了中亚国家的国防能力,在某种程度上有利于中亚的安全与稳定。消极影响在于：美国向中亚输出民主动摇了中亚政局的稳定性,给极端势力提供了浑水摸鱼、借机做大的机会；美国与中亚各国合作步调的不一致致使中亚国家相互猜忌,加深了它们之间的矛盾,从而削弱了中亚国家的地区合作意愿；美国与俄罗斯在中亚的争夺增添了中亚的紧张气氛。除此之外,美国的中亚战略对俄罗斯、中国、伊朗以及其它大国也有影响。美国的中亚战略虽取得了一定成果,但离其所追求的战略日标还相当遥远,究其原因,是以下因素阻碍了美国的中亚战略：第一,中亚国家内部的经济和社会问题,以及国家间难以调和的矛盾与分歧；第二,中亚国家的战略选择(大国平衡战略)；第三,美国自身经济实力的限制和不同领域政策目标的冲突；第四,阿富汗反恐问题以及其他大国力量的制约；第五,对抗性的地缘政治思维是美国当前战略的最深层次制约因素。文章最后认为美国的中亚战略在可见的未来不会有太大的改变,至多也是根据其全球战略或欧亚战略的需要作出重心上的微调,他可能在某一时期获得并保持在中亚的优势地位,但全面控制中亚的战略目标终难实现。论文的结语部分指出美国的传统地缘政治战略思维已不能适应当前的国际环境,美国根据这种战略思维所制定出的国家战略不仅目标难以实现,还可能将美国拖入灾难。中国不必对美国在中亚以及西太平洋地区的咄咄逼人之势做出过度回应,坚持中国传统的以和为贵的地缘政治思维来建构和谐世界,坚持与中亚国家互信、互利、平等、协商、尊重多样文明、谋求联合发展的新安全观,坚持睦邻、富邻、安邻的周边外交政策,以此应对美国的遏制。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using techniques such as hierarchical analysis, historical research, case study to investigating the United States permeating into the new Central Asia countries and the interaction between the United States and the other powers in Central Asia, this dissertation is aimed at exposing the essence of America’s Central Asia strategy, assessing its results and prospect, from the perspective of geopolitics.A study on America’s Central Asia Strategy needs verifying America’s predominating strategic thinking first. The dissertation observes the strategic thinking of the leaders’at three strategic turning points in the history of the United States to affirming that the traditional geopolitical thinking is the soul of America’s grand strategy with the characteristic of power expanding.After the cold war, in the guidance of traditional geopolitical thinking, and as the only superpower in the global, the United Stated decides to go on with pursuing world hegemony which was interrupted by the Cold War. Serving to the national strategy, the Central Asia strategy of the United States is aimed at weakening the influence of Russia and China in this area so as to undermine their capacity to challenge America’s world position and to establish its predominating position in Central Asia, based on which the United States can link its military deployment in the eat, south and west into a integrated body.In order to realizing the up-mentioned goals, the United States enhances its presence in Central Asia by involving in political affair, economy and military of Central Asia countries. In the political aspect, the United States makes efforts to output its democracy value to Central Asia countries with the stick and carrot policy so as to bring them in to "the democratic big family" under its control. In military aspect, with the objective to reshape the Central Asia states’military system according to its standard, the United States has promoted cooperation with Central Asia states with the instrument of "peace and partnership plan" under NATO sine1994. After the event of "9.11", the United States established several air bases in Central Asia first in its history. With the goal of replacing Russia to control Central Asia states’economy, the United States attempted to undermine Russia by building the pipeline by-pass Russia. Finding it was hard to build a pipeline traversing the Caspian Sea recently, the United States proposed "the great Central Asia plan", trying to enhance its power in Central Asia and the South Asia by promoting the countries to strengthen cooperation among them. Foreign aid is another important instrument for the United States to promote its Central Asia strategy.America’s entry into Central Asia must make some effect on the other powers with interest in the area. According to their relation with the United States, these powers are grouped into friends and rivals. The rivals are Russia, China and Iran, which the United States wants to elbow out from Central Asia. But it’s more and more clear that it’s hard to spoil the relation between the up-mentioned three countries and the Central Asia countries because of their traditional contacts. Regarding friends, the United States is stressing the necessary of coordination among them.Inevitably, the Central Asia strategy of the United State affects America itself, the Central Asia states and the other powers active in Central Asia. As to America, the Central Asia strategy makes it one of the most important actors in Central Asia from a bystander. There are positive and negative effects in the Central Asia countries. Regarding the positive effects, it is useful for the countries to become more independence, to broaden their diplomacy and to improve their international position first. Secondly, the technology and economy aid to the Central Asia countries promote their economical development. Thirdly, the cooperation in military between the United States and the Central Asia States upgrades the later defensive capability, which is in favour of the Central Asia states in their security and stability. The negative effects are as follows:1, Challenging the present government of Central Asia states by outputting democracy to them.2, Undermining the cooperation will of the Central Asia states among themselves by valueing them unequally.3, the contest among the out powers intensifies the relationship there. Although the United States has made big progress in Central Asia, but there still a long distance to reach its strategic goals. Actually, the problems exist in the Central Asia countries and the conflicts among them hinder the United States’local strategy. There are other hinder factors, such as the power balance strategy of the Central Asia choices, the limitation of America’s power and the colliding objectives of its policies, the Afghanistan War and the other powers, the strategic thinking of the United States and so on. It can be infer that the United States will maintain its present Central Asia strategy with some adjustment. America may make advantage over Russia sometimes, but there is no way for him to control Central Asia thoroughly.In the ending of this dissertation, it is mentioned that China, insisting its traditional geopolitical thinking based on compromise, needn’t to make too much reaction to America’s recent aggressive movements in Central Asia and the West Pacific, for the strategic thinking of the United states is based on the western geopolitics theories with the characteristic of conflict and expanding powers, which is not suitable the much changed international environment. It must bring trouble to the United States and weaken itself if the United States insists the strategic thinking unchanged.更多还原