【作者】 牛明香；

【导师】 赵庚星；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 土地资源利用， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 海洋是人类赖以生存和发展的基础，鱼类作为海洋生态系统的重要组成部分，为人类提供大量的优质蛋白，在食物保障方面发挥了重要作用。但随着捕捞力量加剧和气候变化的影响，海洋渔业资源遭到严重破坏。为应对人类活动和气候变化对海洋生物资源和环境的影响，国际组织推出了一系列全球性的海洋研究计划，海洋渔业资源对全球变化和人类活动的响应是目前正在进行的IMBER计划的重要内容之一。本研究以黄海生态系统的关键种鳀鱼为研究对象，基于1986-2010年其在我国重要的渔业海域黄海的底拖网调查数据，借助遥感获取的海洋环境因素数据，分析在捕捞压力和气候变化的双重影响下，其种群分布时空变动及其与海洋环境因素的关系，对于探索我国近海生态系统如何响应气候变化和人类活动具有重要意义，同时也为该海区的渔业管理和资源养护提供科学依据。在对黄海海洋环境因子进行遥感分析的基础上，本文主要进行了以下几方面的研究：首先，分析了黄海鳀鱼相对资源密度的季节变化和年际变化。季节变化结果显示，相对资源密度秋季最低，多数年份冬季最高；出现率冬季最高，多数年份秋季最低；相对资源密度和出现率均在春季到夏季时变化幅度最小。年际变化分析表明，1986年以来，鳀鱼相对资源密度在四个季节均呈下降趋势，以夏季下降幅度最小；但出现率的年际变化不大，冬、春季节略下降，夏、秋季节反呈上升趋势。其次，对黄海鳀鱼空间分布的季节变化和年际变化进行了深入研究。在利用资源丰度分布图定性分析的基础上，利用边界分布直方图定量分析了鳀鱼捕获站位及资源密度聚集区的年际变化，并结合GIS的空间统计和地统计，应用趋势面分析、热点分析、标准差椭圆等方法多角度、全方位阐明鳀鱼空间分布的季节变化和年际变化，并利用资源密度重心法分析了鳀鱼资源密度的迁移规律。结果表明，鳀鱼空间分布季节变化明显，冬季，鳀鱼资源密度由深水区向岸边逐渐递减；春季，与冬季相反，资源密度由岸边向深水区递减；夏季，整体上为由北向南递减趋势，但资源密度高值点散乱分布；秋季，与冬季相似，由深水区向岸边环形递减。自1986-2010年，春、夏、秋三个季节鳀鱼在空间上均向北移动，冬季无明显变化趋势；不同年份不同季节鳀鱼均沿经度123.5°-124°E范围内分布最多，但资源密度聚集区无明显分布趋势。第三，利用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）方法分析鳀鱼空间分布特征的基础上，结合GIS技术，以Moran散点地图分析鳀鱼空间分布格局。大多数年份，鳀鱼呈空间集聚分布，但集聚程度各不相同。不同季节，鳀鱼空间分布格局年际变化差异显著，春季，鳀鱼分布呈“北高南低”趋势，但高高类型和低低类型站位数量比例年际变化较大；夏季，高高类型站位数量呈年际递增趋势；秋季，高高类型分布区北移；冬季高高类型主要集聚在深水区，低低类型则分布在沿岸浅水区和调查区域的北部，无明显年际变化趋势。第四，分析了鳀鱼分布和遥感获取的水温、叶绿素浓度的关系，结果表明，不同季节，鳀鱼分布在不同的适温范围内，1月份，鳀鱼分布与水温关系最为明显，主要分布在黄海暖流暖水舌右侧；尽管叶绿素浓度混有泥沙等其他信息，但冬季和春季鳀鱼分布与叶绿素浓度关系比较密切。在此定性分析基础上，利用广义可加模型（GAM）定量分析了海洋环境要素与各季节鳀鱼资源密度（CPUE）、出现率（P/A）的关系，以区分环境要素对鳀鱼资源量和地理分布的影响，并揭示不同季节的影响差异。对海洋环境要素与CPUE的关系分析发现：下网时间对四个季节的CPUE影响均较大，但不同季节影响方式不同；除秋季外，水深对CPUE均存在不同程度的影响；海表温度在冬季影响显著，夏秋季节次之，春季不存在相关性；叶绿素浓度在春季影响显著，冬季次之，夏秋季节无相关性；海表温度梯度仅在冬季有影响。对海洋环境要素与P/A的关系分析发现：除夏季外，下网时间对鳀鱼P/A存在显著影响，但影响趋势与CPUE不同；春夏水深对鳀鱼P/A影响显著，且影响趋势与CPUE相同；海表温度在冬季和夏季、叶绿素浓度在春季和冬季、海表温度梯度在冬季与P/A显著相关，影响程度较大。第五，利用鳀鱼适宜温度因子作为特征温度，研究越冬鳀鱼空间分布年际变动、空间分布格局与遥感获得的海表水温的关系，结果表明，水温变化影响越冬鳀鱼在纬度方向上的分布，而向岸分布程度则由黄海暖流年际变动决定；海水温度变化影响越冬鳀鱼资源密度的高高类型聚集区沿纬度方向的分布。更多还原

【Abstract】 Marine is the foundation of human survival and development, as an important part ofmarine ecosystem, fish plays a significant role in ensuring food security and provides a largeamount of high-quality protein for human being. With the increasing of fishing effort andeffects of climate change, marine fishery resource has been seriously damaged. As an react tothe effects of anthropogenic activities and climate changes on marine living resources andenvironmet, international organizations have launched a series of global ocean researchprogram, the response of marine fishery resources to global change and human activities is animportant part of the ongoing IMBER plan now. In the present study, under the doubleinfluences of fishing pressure and climate change, spatioemporal dynamics of anchovy（Engraulis japonicus）population and its relationship with environmental factors in theYellow Sea were analyzed. The data for this study were fom the1986-2010bottom trawl datain the Yellow Sea and related marine environmental data obtained by remote sensing. Thisstudy will be of great significance to explore how China coastal ecosystems respond toclimate changes and human activities, and also offer a scientific evidence for fisherymanagement and resource conservation in the Yellow Sea. On the basis of marineenvironmental factors being analyzed by remote sensing in the Yellow Sea, this paper mainlystudied the following several aspects.First, seasonal and interannual changes in the relative stock density of anchovy in theYellow Sea were analyzed. As for seasonal changes, the lowest value of the relative stockdensity appeared in autumn, and the highest value appeared in winter in most years, thefrequency of occurrence was the highest in winter and lowest in autumn in most years, andboth the relative stock density and frequency of occurrence changed minimally from spring tosummer. As for interannual variations, the relative stock density of anchovy declined in allseasons after1986, and the decrease was the smallest in summer, but the interannual variationin frequency of occurrence was relative small, which had a slight drop in winter and spring,and an upward trend in summer and autumn.Second, seasonal and interannual variations in spatial distribution of anchovy in the Yellow Sea were studied thoroughly. On the basis of qualitative analysis using resourceabundance maps, the interannual variations in centralized distribution regions of theanchovy’s capture locations and stock density were quantitatively studied using borderhistogram. And combining with spatial statistic and geostatistic technique of GIS, with themethod of trend surface analysis, hot analysis and standard deviational ellipse, seasonal andinterannual changes in spatial distribution were clarified comprehensively and in multi-angle,and the migration trend of anchovy was analyzed by the change of stock density center. Thespatial distribution changed obviously in different seasons. The stock density of anchovydropped gradually from the eastern deep waters to the shore in winter, but in spring whichwas contrary to the winter trend and decreased gradually from the shore to the deep waters,and in summer which dropped from the north to the south with the high stock densityscattered, in autumn which was similarity to the winter and decreased from the deep waters tothe shore. About spatial distribution, anchovy moved northward in spring, summer andautumn, and there was not obvious change trend in winter from1986to2010. The anchovy’scapture locatons mainly distributed between123.5°E and124°E in longitudinal direction indifferent years and different seasons, but the centralized distribution regions of anchovy’sstock density had not apparent trend.Third, spatial distribution characteristics of anchovy were analyzed using exploratoryspatial data analysis (ESDA) method, and combining with GIS, we had a further study ofspatial distribution configuration by moran scattered maps. Anchovy was located with spatialcluster in most years, but the degree of centralization was different. And the spatialdistribution configuriation of anchovy had apparent interannual variations. The relatilve stockdensity of anchovy had a trend of “high in north and low in south” in spring, but there was alarger interannual change in the proportion of station numbers of high-high type and low-lowtype. The station numbers of high-high type had an interannual increase in summer, and thehigh-high type regions moved northward in autumn. In winter, the high-high type regionscentralized in the eastern deep waters, but the low-low type regions was distributed in theshore shallow waters and the north of studied area, and neither of them had significantinterannual change.Fourth, the relationship between anchovy’s distribution and sea surface temperature(SST), chlorophyll concentration was studied. The result indicated that the anchovy wasdistributed between different suitable temperature range in different seasons, the relationshipbetween anchovy’s distribution and SST was most significant and mainly located on theright of warm tongue of the Yellow Sea Warm Current in January. Despite the chlorophyll concentration value was mixed with other information such as sediment, there was a closerelation between anchovy distribution and chlorophyll concentration in winter and spring.After qualitative analysis, the relationship between marine environmental factors and catchper unit effort (CPUE), presence/absence (P/A) of anchovy of all seasons were exploredquantitatively using generalized additive models (GAMs), in order to distinguish the impactof environmental factors on the stock density and geographical distribution of anchovy, andreveal the differences of the influence in different seasons. The relationship between marineenvironmental factors and CPUE of anchovy indicated that the netting time had a greaterimpact on the CPUE in all four seasons, but the affecting way was different in differentseasons. The water depth had impacts of different degree on the CPUE except in autumn.The influence of SST on CPUE was significant in winter, the summer and autumn followedby, and there was no correlation in spring. The influence of chlorophyll concentration onCPUE was significant in spring, the winter followed by, and there was no correlation insummer and autumn. The sea surface temperature gradient (TGR) affected the CPUE only inwinter.The relationship between marine environmental factors and P/A of anchovy showed thatthe netting time had significant influence on the P/A except in summer, but the influencingtrend was different from the CPUE. It was obvious of the impact of water depth on the P/Ain spring and summer, and the influencing trend was the same to the CPUE. SST in winterand summer, chlorophyll concentration in spring and winter, and TGR in winter were allrelated to the P/A significantly, and which influenced the P/A of anchovy on great degree.Fifth, by way of anchovy’s suitable temperature being as the characteristic temperature,we studied the relationship between interannual variations in spatial distribution, spatialconfiguration of wintering anchovy and SST obtained by remote sensing. The resultsuggested that the variations in water temperature had effects on the latitudinal distributionof the wintering anchovy, and whether the anchovy distributed shoreward or not wasdetermined by the interannual variations of the Yellow Sea Warm Current. And the high-hightype centralized regions of wintering anchovy’s stock density in the latitudinal distributionwas affected by the variations in water temperature.更多还原