【作者】 赵明亮；

【导师】 臧旭恒；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪90年代中期以来,经济全球化条件下生产技术与信息技术的发展使得国际产业分工进一步细化,逐渐从产业间分工、产业内分工发展到了产品内分工,产品生产在空间上得以分离,国际垂直专业化分工日益盛行。在国际垂直专业化分工这种生产与贸易模式下,不同的生产环节与工序对生产要素有着不同的需求,对处于生产价值链不同地位的国家也存在差异化的经济影响。中国凭借低成本制造优势广泛参与到了国际垂直专业化生产分工体系当中,大规模的从事国际垂直专业化分工生产对中国社会就业、工资、工业企业技术进步和产业升级等的影响是巨大和深远的,但这一影响的效果却并不确定。而且,中国已经越来越多地受到其他具有相同比较优势和要素察赋、处于类似经济发展阶段的国家或地区(如墨西哥、印度以及越南等东南亚国家)的挑战。在这种经济背景下,就中国参与国际垂直专业化分工的经济效应进行分析,对于中国更好的参与国际垂直专业化分工,实现分工利益,促进国内产业升级及提升产业竞争力具有重要的意义。本文在对国内外学者有关国际垂直专业化分工研究文献进行概括总结的基础上,根据中国的分工及贸易现实改进了国际垂直专业化分工的测算方法,对中国参与国际垂直专业化分工的程度进行了更为准确的测算,并进一步分析了参与国际垂直专业化分工对中国劳动力市场就业结构、熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力相对工资收入差距、技术进步以及产业竞争力的影响机理。通过理论分析与实证分析相结合,考察国际垂直专业化分工对中国经济的影响机理及产生的经济效应,得到了一些具有启发性和参考价值的结论。这对于准确把握中国参与国际垂直专业化分工现状,明确国际垂直专业化分工对中国经济影响的途径及程度,制定经济发展政策具有重要的意义。本文创新点可以概括为：第一,根据中国参与国际垂直专业化分工的特点,改进中国国际垂直专业化分工程度的测算方法。应用改进的PA方法①,对中国参与国际垂直专业化分工的程度进行了更为准确的测算。第二,分析认为Feenstra&Hanson(1995)就国际垂直专业化分工对发展中国家劳动力市场就业结构影响的分析假设,不适合分析国际垂直专业化分工对中国劳动力就业结构影响问题。本文假设发达国家转移出去的生产环节,在发展中国家未必就是熟练劳动力密集型的高技术生产环节,同时不同技术水平产业的国际垂直专业化分工,对劳动力市场就业结构产生的影响也存在差异。在此假设基础上根据中国劳动力市场就业结构特点,探寻了国际垂直专业化分工对中国劳动力市场就业结构影响的理论机理。第三,根据中国目前非熟练劳动力资源丰富,存在大量农村剩余劳动力的现状,本文假定中国非熟练劳动力的供给曲线应是由不同供给弹性决定的一条折线,而不是一条向右上方倾斜的线,熟练劳动力的供给线则为一条正常的斜率为正的线。在此基础上探讨了国际垂直专业化分工对中国熟练劳动力和非熟练劳动力工资收入的影响机理。第四,在Goh(2005)模型分析的基础上改进其假设,假定不同技术水平产业的研发投入成本函数存在差异,分中低技术产业和高技术产业分别分析了国际垂直专业化分工对技术转移和技术溢出的影响。第五,根据理论及实证分析结论,有针对性的提出在国际垂直专业化分工生产过程中实现中国分工利益及促进中国产业升级的有指导意义的政策建议。本文的主要研究结论为：第一,通过PA方法和HIY方法对中国分产业和总体VS值的测算分析发现,近十几年来,中国不同产业和总体的VS值都有了较大幅度的增长。其中,中国高技术产业的国际垂直专业化分工程度相比中低技术产业较高,这与高技术产业产品生产易于分割、发达国家更多的外包高技术产业产品的低技术生产环节有关。中低技术产业因产品生产环节较少,且大多数中间产品都可以在国内完成生产,垂直专业化生产程度相对较低。同时,PA方法测算的分产业和总体的VS值都要高于HIY方法测算的VS值。就中国与其他有代表性的发展中国家和发达国家的对比分析发现,发达大国的国际垂直专业化分工程度相对较低,新兴市场经济体及发达小国的国际垂直专业化分工程度相对较高。在发展中国家中,由于中国对外贸易的快速增长及提倡大力发展来料加工、进料加工、来件装配等加工贸易,印度、巴西等国与中国相比国际垂直专业化分工程度相对较低。第二,就国际垂直专业化分工对中国劳动力市场就业结构和工资收入差距影响的理论机制分析表明,当产业为中低技术产业时,非熟练劳动力的需求较高,而垂直专业化程度相对较低,这对熟练劳动力的就业可能会产生消极影响。当产业为高技术产业时,中国从事从发达国家转移来的低技术生产环节的生产,这些生产环节在中国并不一定都属于高技术环节,可能相当一部分仍属于技术水平低的非熟练劳动力密集型环节,因此使得中国熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力的需求都有所增加。同时,对中国这样一个非熟练劳动力资源丰富,存在大量农村剩余劳动力的发展中国家来讲,非熟练劳动力的供给曲线将不会是一条向右上方倾斜的线,而是由不同供给弹性决定的一条折线,熟练劳动力的供给线则为一条正常的斜率为正的线。因此,国际垂直专业化分工对劳动力市场就业结构的影响效应,并不必然会反映在熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力相对工资的差距上,即中低技术产业熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力的工资收入差距未必缩小,高技术产业熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力的工资收入差距未必扩大。实证分析发现国际垂直专业化分工对中国劳动力市场就业结构产生了重要的影响,中国工业部门参与国际垂直专业化分工,总体上降低了对熟练劳动力的相对需求,非熟练劳动力的相对需求增加,对中低技术产业的回归结果表明这一影响更为显著。而对高技术产业的分析显示,国际垂直专业化分工增加了对熟练劳动力的相对需求,降低了非熟练劳动力的相对需求,但劳动力需求变动的百分比相对于全部产业和中低技术产业要小。就国际垂直专业化分工对中国劳动力工资收入差距的分析表明,国际垂直专业化分工会缩小中低技术产业熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力相对工资差距,而会轻微拉大高技术产业熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力相对工资差距。国际垂直专业化分工对熟练劳动力相对需求和相对工资收入的实证分析结论与理论分析相吻合。第三,通过对中国全要素生产率的测算分析发现,近十几年来中国各产业的全要素生产率基本呈上升趋势,中低技术产业中采掘业、原材料冶炼加工及基础性生产产业的全要素生产率较高,其他中低技术产业相对较低,高技术产业的全要素生产率较高。就全要素生产率的构成来看,中国绝大多数产业全要素生产率的进步更多的体现在技术变化上,技术效率指数普遍偏低,高技术产业的技术变化增长更为明显。国际垂直专业化分工对全要素生产率及其分解的技术进步和技术效率大都产生了负向影响,只有中低技术产业对技术进步的影响为正。就全要素生产率而言,高技术产业的负向影响更为明显,就技术效率而言,中低技术产业的负向影响更为明显,这与前面的理论分析一致。分析表明目前中国参与国际垂直专业化分工并没有明显获取技术溢出的好处,只有中低技术产业因技术水平相对较低,国际垂直专业化分工对其技术进步起到了一定的促进作用。第四,国际垂直专业化分工对中国产业竞争力产生了重要的影响,国际垂直专业化分工对产品出口竞争力指数产生了正向影响,且对中低技术产业的影响高于对高技术产业的影响。这说明虽然中国高技术产业的国际垂直专业化分工程度较高,但对净出口的增加效应反而较小,中国劳动密集型的产品出口仍然占有重要的地位,高技术产业因国际垂直专业化分工生产增加,而使产品净出口值增加的效应并不明显。国际垂直专业化分工净附加值指数的回归系数为正值,并且高技术产业的回归系数要明显高于中低技术产业的回归系数,表明高技术产业的国际垂直专业化分工程度较高,技术水平高,产业关联效应强,因此对国际垂直专业化分工净附加值指数的增加效应明显。中低技术产业的国际垂直专业化分工程度较低,同时生产环节的技术含量较低,对其他产业的关联拉动作用相对较弱,因此对国际垂直专业化净附加值的增加效应较小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the mid-1990s, international division of labor is further refined with the development of production and information technology, gradually shifting from inter-industry division of labor and division of labor within the industry to intra-product specialization. Production can be separated in space and international vertical specialization is becoming increasingly popular. In the production and trade patterns of international vertical specialization, different production processes have different needs to production factors and have different economic impact on countries in different status of value chain. With low-cost manufacturing advantages, China comprehensively participates in international vertical specialization production, which has enormous impact on problems of employment, wages, enterprises’technological progress and industrial upgrading in China. However, the effect of the impact is still uncertain. Moreover, China has been increasingly challenged by other countries or regions which developed at a similar stage with the same comparative advantages (such as Mexico, India, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries). In this economic context, it is of great significance to analyze the economic effects of China’s participation in international vertical specialization for China better participating in international vertical specialization, promoting domestic industrial upgrading and enhancing industrial competitiveness.Based on the review of domestic and foreign scholar’s papers on international vertical specialization, this paper improves the calculation method of international vertical specialization according to China’s reality, and does more accurate calculation of the degree of china’s international vertical specialization. What’s more, further analysis is made of international vertical specialization’s influence on employment structure of labor market, relative wage gap between skilled and unskilled labors, technological progress and industrial competitiveness. Through the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper analysis of the mechanism of international vertical specialization’s impact on China’s economic and the economic benefit it produced, some instructive conclusions are reached. Which is of great significance for grasping China’s international vertical specialization status, clearing the way and degree of international vertical specialization’influence on the economy of China, and formulating economic development policies. The innovative points of this paper can be summarized as follows:First, according to the characteristics of China’s participation in international vertical specialization, this paper improves China’s international vertical specialization measurement method. What’s more, it makes more accurate estimation at the degree of China’s participation in international vertical specialization through improved PA method.Second, according to the characteristics of China’s labor market, we think that Feenstra&Hanson’s assume of international vertical specialization’s impact on developing country’s labor market is not suitable for analysis the impact of international vertical specialization on China’s employment structure. This paper assumes that the production processes transferred from developed countries may not belong to high-tech sectors. At the same time, the industries have different technology level also have different impact on the employment structure.Based on this assumption, we analysis the mechanism of vertical specialization’s impact on employment structure of the labor market.Third, China as a developing country has abundant non-skilled labor and a large number of rural surplus labor forces, so the non-skilled labor supply curve will not be a line tilt to the right. Instead, it is broken line determined by different supply elasticity. The skilled labor supply curve will be a normal line of positive slope. Based on this assumption, this paper analyse the mechanism of vertical specialization’s impact on wage gap of non-skilled labor and skilled labor.Fourth, based on Goh’s model, this paper improved its hypothesis, assuming that different industry has diffenent R&D cost function.Then, analysis the impact of international vertical specialization on technology transfer and technology spillover in low-tech industry and high-tech industry respectively. Fifth, based on the conclutions made by theoretical analysis and empirical analysis on china’s international vertical specialization, this paper proposes some policy suggestions on realizing division interest and promoting China’s industrial upgrading during particapite in international vertical specialization.The main conclusions of this paper can be summarized as follows:First, the calculation of China’s overall and sub-sector international vertical specialization through PA method and HIY method illustrated that China’s overall and sub-sector international vertical specialization have a substantial growth in the last decades. The high-technology industry’s degree of international vertical specialization is higher than that of the low-technology industries. This is because high-technology industry’s product is easy to segment and developed countries outsource more low-technology products of high-technology industries. The low-technology industry sectors have less production processes and most of their processes can be completed domestically, so the degree of their international vertical specialization is relatively low. Meanwhile, the overall and sub-sector degree of international vertical specialization measured by PA method is higher than that by HIY methods. Comparing to other typical developing and developed countries, we find that the big developed countries has relatively low degree of international vertical specialization, while the emerging economic countries and small developed countries have relatively high degree of international vertical specialization. In developing countries, due to the rapid growth of China’s foreign trade and the policies of encouraging developing processing trade, China’s degree of international vertical specialization is higher than that of the India and Brazil.Second, the analysis of the mechanism of international vertical specialization’s impact on employment structure of the labor market and income gap in China shows that the demand for unskilled labor is relatively higher in the low-technology industries with a low degree of international vertical specialization. This may have a negative impact on the employment of skilled labor. When the industry is high-technology industries, China engages in the low-technology production processes transferred from developed countries. These production processes in China may not belong to high-tech sectors. A considerable part of these production processes may still belong to unskilled labor-intensive processes, which makes the demand on skilled labor and unskilled labor increased together in China. In addition, China as a developing country has abundant non-skilled labor and a large number of rural surplus labor forces, so the non-skilled labor supply curve will not be a line tilt to the right. Instead, it is a broken line determined by different supply elasticity. The skilled labor supply curve will be a normal line of positive slope. Therefore, the impact of international vertical specialization on the employment structure will not necessarily reflect in the relative wage gap between skilled and unskilled labor, namely the wages gap between the skilled and unskilled labor may not narrow in the low-technology industry and it may not expand in high-technology industry.Empirical analysis finds that the international vertical specialization has a significant impact on China’s labor market. The Industry Sector’s participating in international vertical specialization generally reduces the relative demand for skilled labor and increases unskilled labor’s demand. The regression results of the low-technology industry show that this effect is more significant. However, the analysis on high-tech industries shows that vertical specialization increases the demand for skilled labor and reduces the relative demand for unskilled labor, but the change rate in labor demand is smaller than that of the overall and the low-technology industries. The analysis on wage gap between skilled labor and unskilled labor shows that international vertical specialization narrows the wage gap in the low-technology industries but slight widens the wage gap in the high-technology industries. The empirical analysis conforms to the theoretical analysis.Third, the measurement of China’s total factor productivity shows that most of the industries’total factor productivity is in the upward trend. The mining and processing industry, metals smelting and pressing industry in the low-technology industry have higher total factor productivity, while other industries have relatively low total factor productivity and high-technology industry has one. The structure of total factor productivity shows that the growth of total factor productivity in most industries stems is embodied in the function of technical progress, and the influence in that of the high-technology industry is more obvious, while technical efficiency index is low. International vertical specialization has a negative impact on total factor productivity, technical progress and technical efficiency, except the influence on low-tech industry’s technical progress. As to the total factor productivity, high-technology industry’s negative influence is more obvious, while as to technical efficiency, low-technology industry’s negative influence is more obvious, which conforms to the theoretical analysis. Analysis indicates that China’s participation in the vertical specialization is not significantly beneficial from the technical spillovers. Only because the low technology industry has low level of technology, it benefits from the international vertical specialization.Fourth, International vertical specialization has important influence on China’s industrial competitiveness. It also has positive impact on trade competitive power Index, and the influence on low-technology industry is higher than high-technology industry. This shows that although China’s high-technology industry has a high degree of international vertical specialization, the effect on net exports is small and labor-intensive products’export is still in an important position. The increase of international vertical specialization in high-technology industry has less influence on net export. International vertical specialization has positive impact on net value-added international vertical specialization index, while the influence on high-technology industry was significantly higher than on low-technology industry. This shows that high-technology industry’s technology level and the degree of international vertical specialization is high, which has strong industrial linkage effects, so the growth of net value-added index of international vertical specialization is obvious. Meanwhile low-technology industry’s technology level and the degree of international vertical specialization is low, which has weak industrial linkage effects, so the growth of net value-added index of international vertical specialization is not obvious.更多还原