【作者】 袁红英；

【导师】 臧旭恒；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 GPA (Government Procurement Agreement,政府采购协议)是WTO框架下的诸边协议之一,目标是促进成员方开放政府采购市场,扩大国际贸易。GPA由WTO成员自愿签署,目前有美国、欧盟等14个成员方,共41个国家和地区签署了协议。中国在2001年加入WTO时,曾承诺要尽快展开加入GPA的谈判,为履行承诺,2007年12月28日,中国递交了加入GPA的申请书和初步出价清单,这标志着中国正式启动加入GPA谈判进程。持续至今的谈判过程中,我国在开放程度问题上与其他国家之间有着一定的分歧。因此,在中国政府采购市场开放程度和时间上势必将形成一个复杂的国际博弈局面。加入GPA后中国将开放政府采购市场,其对国家及区域产业的发展将是一把“双刃剑”,既存在机遇也面临挑战：加入GPA后政府采购的某些对内政策功能将弱化,国内相关产业的市场开放性将大大加强,相关产业既面临着竞争升级带来的自主创新提升和国际市场开拓的机遇,同时也将面对GPA框架下国际产业竞争环境的冲击和挑战。在当前加入GPA的背景和形势下,对外我们要充分而深入解读GPA内容,对内要深度考察和研究国内政府采购特征和相关产业竞争力及其之间的内在联系,为全面应对加入GPA做好充分准备。本论文基于内外部环境基础和形势,以加入GPA与我国产业发展的关系为研究对象,分析加入GPA的产业基础及对产业带来的影响,在GPA、政府采购和产业发展三位一体的基础上展开研究。本文主要是利用理论和实证分析相结合的方法研究加入政府采购协议对我国产业发展的影响,提出应对策略。研究的行文思路如下：基于对相关背景和现实的认识,分析和确定研究主题,明确论文的研究目的和意义；对相关的研究进行述评,把握当前研究现状；建立理论模型对研究对象进行理论分析,为全文分析提供基础；通过计量经济学分析方法,利用跨国的面板数据为研究问题提供实践依据；加强实证分析力度,以山东为例进行分析；对已加入GPA的主要国家对策选择进行分析借鉴；在前面分析基础上提出前瞻性、针对性对策建议；最后,在主体分析的基础上对全文进行总结,并提出今后的研究方向。本文的主要创新点可概括为：第一,建立了加入GPA后产业竞争之间的Stackberg博弈模型和演化博弈模型,从短期和长期两个方面分析了加入GPA对哪些产业产生积极的影响,对哪些产业消极的影响。并从理论上论证加入GPA对不同产业所产生的影响将会因产业的政府采购依存度、产业竞争力的不同而存在差异的基本假设。第二,基于需求和竞争机制影响产业发展的理论逻辑,从产业的增长规模、产业的出口两个方面诠释产业发展。在详细阐述加入GPA对产业增长和产业出口产生作用的影响机制基础上,选取比利时、德国、丹麦、西班牙等已加入GPA的10几个国家作为研究对象,借鉴Rajan与Zingales (1998)交叉项的计量思想,通过引入产业对政府采购的依赖程度与是否加入GPA的交叉项、产业竞争力与是否加入GPA的交叉项变量,使用跨国的面板数据实证检验了加入GPA对不同产业增长和出口的影响将会因各产业对政府采购的依存度、产业竞争力的不同而存在差异。第三,为了对政府采购规模进行测算,设计了我国目前的政府采购与GPA框架下的三种不同统计口径和方法,并以山东为例对加入GPA后政府采购规模和结构进行了估计和分析。第四,对加入GPA对我国产业发展的影响进行了实证研究,以山东省为例对制造业、服务业、工程业的市场结构和开放度进行了分析,对产业国际竞争力进行了测算,阐明了加入GPA对于山东省相关产业和政府采购的影响。第五,在理论和实证分析的基础上,借鉴已加入GPA的主要国家的对策选择,提出了我国加入GPA应掌握的基本原则等具有前瞻性、战略性、针对性的对策建议。本文的主要研究结论为：第一,在加入GPA的问题上,通过采用博弈的思想分析了在现阶段我国加入GPA的利弊,研究发现：就短期而言,中国加入GPA,发达国家从中获得的收益远大于我国产业的收益,我国产业最多只能获得国际市场中三分之一的市场份额,并且这三分之一的市场份额的获得基于我国政府完全理性的假设条件。事实上,在实施中,由于很多不确定性的因素,使得我们实际获得的收益要比理想中的小。这也说明,中国加入GPA在短期内对发达国家更有利。而且国内产业的收益除了依赖自身的竞争力外,还与产业对政府的采购依存度有关,并且自身竞争力越强,对政府的采购依存度越大,产业的收益越大。我国政府应该视产业类型不同区别对待：对于产业竞争力比较强的产业,可以尽快就该产业加入GPA,以进一步提升该产业的竞争力；对于产业竞争力比较弱的产业,应该暂时采取保护措施,不予加入GPA,并且采取相应的措施不断提升其自身的竞争力,直至该产业的竞争力满足一定条件时,再加入GPA。产业对政府过多的依存度并不利于提升产业自身的竞争力,所以,若要更多的产业在加入GPA的协议后能够获利,政府应该适当减少产业对政府的依赖性,要激励产业在市场自由竞争的环境中生存。第二,选取比利时、德国、丹麦、西班牙等已加入GPA的国家作为研究对象,使用跨国的面板数据实证检验加入GPA对不同产业增长、出口的影响。实证结果表明：加入GPA后,相比产业竞争力,产业对政府采购的依赖程度显著影响了产业增长,政府对产业的保护程度越高,越不利于产业的扩张,即政府采购的依赖程度高的产业增长更容易遭受加入GPA的冲击；与之相反,相比产业对政府采购的依赖程度,产业竞争力对产业出口的促进作用更为明显,即产业竞争力高的产业即便是政府采购依赖程度较高,产业出口受到加入GPA的冲击也会较小。就产业增长角度而言,政府采购依赖程度较高的产业不宜进行开放,除非该产业的竞争力足够高,也就是说政府采购的依赖程度高但竞争力也较高的产业增长受到加入GPA的冲击较小。第三,当前加入GPA对制造业影响相对较小,对服务业和工程业影响较大。在发展阶段以及相关体制的制约下,我国服务业参与国内、国际竞争的起点较低,特别是知识密集型的现代服务产业体系不成熟,很难在国际政府采购市场上与国外企业同台竞争。所以,应高度谨慎而重视应对服务业的开放竞争形势。对工程业而言,一方面加入GPA有利于国际工程企业进入国内市场,而国内企业“走出去”的空间极为有限；另一方面,加入GPA有利于规范工程行业发展环境,促进本土行业、企业管理和技术提升,而且将迫使国内企业加强区域分工与合作,促进生产要素自由流动。第四,加入GPA对经济社会发展的挑战和机遇并存,关键是提前做好充分规划和准,以处理好挑战和机遇的矛盾关系。政府采购市场的开放应根据我国经济发展水平、各行业的发展状况和产业政策的需要,科学地确定政府采购市场的开放次序与程度,逐步、适度地开放政府采购市场。在政府采购市场开放的时间和节奏上,须借鉴发展中国家经验并结合我国国情,合理利用例外条款,遵循循序渐进的原则,争取更长的过渡期。在国外供应商进入方面,实行逐步准入原则。在市场开放领域上,实行结构性开放策略,先开放那些事实上已经开放的领域及具有国际竞争力的行业和部门。同时要加快推进产业转型升级,提升我国产业国际竞争力,并不断完善政府采购制度和相关法律法规。更多还原

【Abstract】 GPA (Government Procurement Agreement) is an effective multilateral framework of rights and obligations with respect to laws,regulations,procedures and practices regarding government procurement with a view to achieving greater liberalization and expansion of world trade and improving the international framework for the conduct of world trade.GPA by WTO members voluntarily signed, currently has14members including the United States and the European Union, a total of41countries and area signed agreement. In2001China joined the WTO and promised to soon join the negotiation of GPA. As a result, on December28,2007, China submitted to join GPA application and initial offer, this is indicating China is formal start to join the GPA negotiation process. Until now the negotiation process, our country have some differences with other countries in opening degree of problems. Therefore, in the Chinese government procurement market opening degree and the time is bound to form a complex international game situation. After joining the GPA China will open government procurement market, its impact on national and regional industrial development will be a "double-edged sword", both opportunities and challenges after joining GPA:government procurement of some domestic policy functions will be weakened, the domestic industry market openness will be greatly strengthened, relevant industry is facing competitive upgrade brought enhance independent innovation and international market development opportunities, also will face the international competition under the framework of GPA environmental impact and challenge. In the accession to the GPA context and situation, we should make full and thorough understanding of foreign GPA content, to within the depth of study and research the domestic government procurement characteristics and competitiveness of related industries and the immanent connection between, for the full answer join GPA fully prepared.This paper based on the internal and external environment and situation, On the relationship between joining GPA and industry development in China as the research object, analyses industrial base of joining GPA and on the impact of industry, in the GPA, the government procurement and industry development based on the research of the trinity.This paper mainly uses the theories and empirical analysis of the method of combining research to join the government procurement agreement on China’s industry development, put forward to answer strategy. Research on the ideas as follows:Based on the background and the reality understanding, analysis and the determination of research themes, clear the research purpose and significance; the related research are reviewed, grasp the current research status; set up a theory model on the research object of theoretical analysis, text analysis provides basis; through econometric analysis, use transnational panel data study provide practice basis; to strengthen the empirical analysis dynamics, taking Shandong as an example for analysis; to join GPA already selected for analysis of major countries in reference to; in front of the proposed based on prospective, countermeasures and suggestions; finally, in the main analysis based on the summary of the thesis, and suggest directions for future research. The main innovation of this paper can be summarized as:The first, establish the industry after joining GPA competition between Stackberg model and a model of evolutionary game theory, from short-term and long-term two respects analysed join GPA to what industry produces positive effect, negative effect on what industry. And from theoretic argumentation to join GPA to disparate industry the impact will be due to industry government procurement dependence, industrial competitiveness of the different underlying assumptions.Second, based on the theory of demand and competitive system influencing industry development, the article annotates industry development from two aspect (industrial growth scale, industrial exportation) After a detailed elaboration of GPA’s influence on machine-made foundation to the industrial growth and the industrial exportation, the article, profiting from Rajan and Zingales(1998) cross term measurement thought, selects10countries which has joined GPA as Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Spain and so on as study object to examine the different influences on industrial growth and the exportation with whether joins GPA because of the degree of dependency of various industries to the government procurement and the differences between industrial competitive powers, by using the transnational kneading board data, which introduce the cross term of industry dependency level of government procurement with whether joins GPA and the cross term variable of the industrial competitive power with whether joins GPA.Third, in order to carry on the reckoning of the government procurement scale, the article designs three kinds of different statistical caliber at present of our country and under the GPA frame. It estimates and analysis the government procurement scale and structure after joined GPA by taking Shandong as the example.Fourth, the article gives a diagnosis research on the GPA influence on our country industry development. Taking Shandong as the example, the article expounds the influences of joining GPA regarding the Shandong Province correlation industry and the government procurement, to summary the manufacturing industry, service industry, the engineering market mechanism and degree of openness and reckoning the industrial international competitive power.Fifth, in the theoretical and the diagnosis analysis foundation, modeling the main countries who has joined GPA, the article gives the basic principles which our country should grasp and the foresightedness, strategically, the pointed countermeasure suggestions.This article’s main research conclusions are:First, in the question of joining GPA, by using gambling thought to analyze the advantages and disadvantages in present stage of our country, the research has discovered:Speaking of the short-term, if China joins GPA, the developed countries obtain much more income than our country industry. Our country can obtain mostly1/3international market, and this1/3market share acquisition based on our country Government complete rational supposition condition. In fact, in the implementation, as a result of very many uncertainty factors, we can actually obtain far less than ideal. This also explained that China’s joining in GPA takes more advantageous in the short-term to the developed countries.The industry obtain promotion not only depend own competitive power but also the government procurement, the more strongly the competitive power, more dependence on the government’s purchase, bigger income. Therefore, if the industrial is strong enough to make profit in GPA, the government should open it, vice versa. The government should take the protective measures temporarily, and takes the corresponding measure to promote its own competitive power unceasingly. When this industrial competitive power satisfies the controlled condition, then open it to GPA.Excessively degrees of dependency on the government purchase hindrance industry own competitive power enhancement. Therefore, if the government wants more industries to be able to make a profit after join GPA agreement, the government should suitably reduce the industry dependence on government’s purchase and drive the industry survives in the market free competition environment.Second, the article selects countries which have joined GPA as Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Spain and so on as the object of study, uses the transnational kneading board data to examine the difference and influence on industrial between joining GPA or not. The real diagnosis result indicates that.After joining GPA, compared with the industrial competitive power, level of dependency on government procurement affects the industrial growth much obviously. The more the government’s protection, the less the industrial expansion. That is, the industrial which has high level dependence on the government procurement is more easily to suffer the GPA impact. With it opposite, compares the level of dependence on the government procurement, the industrial competitive power can promote more obvious exportation even if the industrial has a high government procurement dependence. Also the industrial exportation receives small impact from GPA.Speaking of the industrial growth angle, it is not suitable to open the industrial which carries on deep dependence on the government procurement, unless this industrial’s competitive power is high enough. In other words, the growth of the industrial which carries on deep dependence on the government and has strong competitive power receives small impact from GPA.Third, in current time, manufacturing industry suffer relatively less influence from joining GPA than the service industry and the engineering works. In the development phase as well as under the correlation system restriction, our country service industry participates mainly in the home and experiences little international competition. The knowledge intensity modern service industry system is not especially mature, and it is very difficult to compete with the overseas enterprises in the international government procurement market. Therefore, we should highly discrete and take to be supposed to service industry opening competition situation. Speaking of the engineering works, on one hand, joining GPA can help the international project enterprise to be advantageous enters the domestic market, while the domestic enterprise’s "walk-space" is extremely limited; On the other hand, joining GPA can develop the engineering environment, promote the native business management and the technical promotion, moreover will force the domestic enterprise to strengthen the region division of labor and the cooperation, to promote the flowing of elements of production. Fourth, joining GPA brings the coexisting of challenge and opportunity which develop the economic society. The key is to complete the full plan ahead of time and process the good challenge and the opportunity contradictory relations. The opening of the government procurement market should act according to our country economy level of development, various professions development conditions and the industrial policy need. The open order and the degree should be determined scientifically, gradually, moderately. The time and the rhythm of the opening of the government procurement market must profit from the developing nations experiences and to unify our country national conditions, to use the reasonable exception clause, to proceed in an orderly way and strive for a longer transition-period. The admittance of the overseas supplier should be implemented gradually. We should implement the constitutive opening strategy in the market open domain, opens the professions and the departments which were in fact opened and those which have the international competitive power. Simultaneously we must speed up the industry reforming, promote our country industry international competitive power, and unceasingly consummate the government procurement system and the related legal laws and regulations.更多还原