【作者】 王锦良；

【导师】 王德章；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨商业大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,我国的流通产业得到了快速的发展,在促进国民经济发展中的作用不断提升,已从以往的附属产业发展成为独立产业,成为关系“国计民生”的“先导产业、基础产业、主导产业”。特别是在目前我国贯彻实施扩大内需的战略过程中,作为流通经济运行主体和流通功能发挥载体的流通产业,更是成为该战略的切实推动者。为此,对于流通产业与经济增长和消费等之间关系的研究已成为目前宏观经济研究领域中的一个重要课题。本文以流通产业对经济发展的影响作为研究主题,以现有的理论为指导,结合中国的实际,从理论上探讨流通产业影响中国经济发展的渠道和可能的机理；并结合时间序列分析、面板数据分析、协整分析等现代计量经济学方法,对流通产业对经济发展的“质”和“量”的方面——经济增长、产业结构变动、三次产业发展、消费扩大、民生改善(收入、消费者福利)等方面——的影响程度进行了实证检验。本文证实了以下结果：1.改革开放以来,我国流通产业发展的水平、结构、绩效都有显著的改进,流通产业对经济增长的贡献在不断提高,但相对于发达国家而言,还存在着一定的差距。2.在流通产业对经济增长的影响方面,全国样本的时间序列分析结果表明,流通产业与经济增长之间具有协整关系,其能显著的促进经济的增长；分时间段看,自1990年外资逐渐进入流通领域以来,该贡献程度在不断的提高；同时也证明流通产业是经济增长的Granger原因。此外,全国31个省市区的面板数据分析结果也表明,流通产业能显著的促进区域经济的增长,但这种促进作用存在着明显的区际差别,整体上,东部地区的贡献度要大于中、西部地区。3.在流通产业对产业结构变动和三次产业发展的影响方面,流通产业发展引致的流通效率的提高,能显著的推动产业结构不断地向深度和广度等方面演进发展；流通产业借助供求关系,以及参与和渗透功能实现着产业结构的调节和升级。同时,利用相关性分析和灰色关联度分析的方法,从静态和动态的视角考察了流通产业与三次产业之间的关联程度,结果表明均存在着紧密的关系；并基于VAR模型对流通产业对三次产业发展的影响进行了动态分析,得出流通产业与三次产业之间存在着显著的协整关系；从脉冲函数和方差分解分析看,流通产业对三次产业的发展均具有着正向的、且持久的促进作用,但对产业波动的解释力度仍待提高。4.在流通产业对消费和改善民生的影响方面,流通产业与消费和民生(收入和消费者福利)之间均存在着协整关系,流通产业的发展能显著的促进消费的扩大、居民收入的增长和消费者福利的改善。根据上述的分析,我们可知,流通产业对经济发展具有重要的促进作用,是保障经济发展的重要构件,因此,建立功能良好的流通产业体系,并确保流通产业的稳定发展对经济发展具有着至关重要的促进作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with the rapid growth, China’s circulation industry plays an increasing important role in promoting the development of economy, it has not been subordinate industry any more but independent industry which has significant effects on the national economy and the people’s livelihood, we call it guiding industry, infrastructure industry and leading industry. And the circulation industry, as the main part of circulation economy and circulation function carrier, especially in the period of our country implementing the strategy of boosting domestic demand, has become the promoter of that strategy. Therefore, the research on relationship among the circulation industry, the economic growth and the consumption has become an important subject in the field of present study on macro-economy.Under the guidance of existing theory and combining with china’s reality, this paper studies the impact of circulation industry on economic development and discusses the channels and the possible mechanism of the china’s economic development influenced by the circulation industry theoretically. With the time series analysis, panel data analysis, co-integration analysis and other modern econometrics methods, this paper tests empirically the influence of circulation industry on the economic development on the aspect of "quality" and "quantity" economic growth, industrial structure, consumption, people’s livelihood (income, consumer welfare).This paper confirms the following results:1. Since the reform and opening up, China’s circulation industry development is significantly improved on the level, structure and performance and its contribution to economic growth is rising ceaselessly, but compared with the developed countries, there.is still a certain gap.2. From the perspective of the impact of the circulation industry on economic growth, the result of the time series analysis of cross-country samples tells that there exists co-integration relationship between them, and the circulation industry can significantly promote the economic growth; from the perspective of different time periods, with the foreign capital gradually entering the field of circulation since1990, the facilitating effect of which has constantly upgraded, and at the same time, the Granger causality also has proved that the circulation industry can promote the economic growth. Besides, the panel data of31provinces analysis results also show that circulation industry can significantly promote economic growth. But from panel data analysis, there are obvious regional different in this stimulative function and the contribution to the eastern part on the whole is greater than that in the Middle and the West.3. From the perspective of the impact of the circulation industry on the change of industrial structure and the three strata of industry’s development, the circulation efficiency’s improvement caused by the development of circulation industry can significantly promote the continually development of the industrial structure to depth and width, and the circulation industry realize the industrial structure’s adjustment and improvement with the relationship of supply and demand, and function of participation and penetration. At the same time, using the correlation analysis and grey relational analysis method, from the static and dynamic perspective of the relevance between the circulation industry and the three strata of industry, it is concluded that there are obviously close relationships. On the basis of the dynamic analysis of the VAR model’s impact on the development of the circulation industry to the three strata of industry’s development, we can make the conclusion that there is obvious co-integration between them. The Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition tell that circulation industry has a lasting and positive promoting function on the three strata of industry’s development, but the explanation of the fluctuation of the industry is still needed to be improved.4. From the perspective of the impact of the circulation industry on consumption and improving people’s livelihood (income and consumers’welfare), the circulation industry has co-integration relationship with them. The development of circulation industry can significantly promote the expansion of consumption, the growth of residents’ income and the improvement of consumers’ welfare.According to the above analysis, we can know that the circulation industry plays an important role in promoting the development of the economy and it is the important component to guarantee economic development. Therefore, to establish a sound circulation industry system and to ensure the steady development of the circulation industry is greatly important in promoting the development of the economy.更多还原