【作者】 万金；

【导师】 祁春节；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业贸易与农村金融管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 在自由主义经济发展思想的引导下,经济活动的全球化日益深入,各国的经济体制逐渐趋同化,与此同时,现代科技发展突飞猛进,为经济系统运行提供了强大的物质支撑。在这样的背景下,世界农业发展的国际化成为了不可逆趋势。从改革开放起,中国农业开始融入国际体系,加入WTO是其在国际化道路上迈进的一大步。在农业国际化的过程中,中国农业对外开放深度和广度逐渐增加,既有充分利用国内国际两种资源、两个市场的机遇,也要面对来自世界市场的压力与挑战。时至今日,中国农产品贸易格局发生了明显变化：农产品贸易规模持续扩大,进口和出口呈现“一快一慢”的增长态势,农产品贸易逆差不断扩大,同时,农产品出口市场集中度和产品集中度都较高,且出口易受到国外严苛的准入标准和贸易壁垒阻碍。由此,形成了当前不容乐观的农产品贸易局面。农产品贸易格局变动的背后隐藏着农产品自身比较优势的转变。从改革开放至今,中国大部分农产品已经丧失了比较优势,且比较优势向劳动密集型农产品集中,园艺类农产品、水产品和部分畜产品成为仅有的比较优势农产品。不仅如此,中国不具备农业生产的自然资源禀赋优势,农业生产成本不断上涨而生产率增长缓慢,这使当前农产品比较优势状态的改善存在不小困难。农产品贸易状况关系到中国农业国际化的市场地位,是促进农业经济增长的重要力量,而比较优势是农产品贸易(尤其是出口贸易)发展的根本基础,因此,深入研究农产品比较优势并建立准确深刻的认识具有重大意义。比较优势是学术界的重点研究课题,也是政府关注的重要问题。尽管现代国际贸易现象日益纷繁复杂、国际贸易理论在更多的视角上获得了发展,但比较优势是需要持续研究的重要课题,尤其是针对农产品贸易的问题,比较优势原理具有更强的解释力和指导作用。本文以1978年中国经济转型的重要时期为历史起点,以改革开放为时代背景,对30多年来农产品比较优势的动态进行研究。以经济学原理、国际贸易理论、制度经济学、产品空间结构理论为理论基础和思想指导,采用多种计量分析方法,围绕“探寻农产品比较优势变动的内在规律、缘由及趋势”与“如何培育和改善农产品比较优势?”两个核心问题,展开了实证研究。在前人研究的基础上,本文从以下几个方面进行了创新性探索：第一,采用最新的NRCA index全面研究了改革开放至今的农产品比较优势动态,探索了中国农产品比较优势长期变动的规律性,总结了其变动的总体性特征,为对中国农产品比较优势动态变化的客观、全面的认识提供了科学依据。第二,从贸易理论的前沿出发,将制度因素引入农产品比较优势问题的研究,首次检验了制度质量对农产品比较优势变动的影响,既突破了传统的研究视角,一定程度上丰富了现有的农产品比较优势相关研究的视野,又提供了来自非制度密集型产品方面的制度与比较优势关系的经验证据,对前沿理论起到了一定的补充性证明作用。第三,首次将产品空间结构理论引入到农产品比较优势动态的分析中,构建“国家-产品-时间”的高维面板数据,实证检验了农产品空间结构对比较优势在农产品间变动的影响作用,并在此基础上首次对中国农产品比较优势培育目标选择的问题进行了深入探讨,一定程度上弥补了国内研究的不足,对同类文献起到了一定的补充作用。本文先后从农产品比较优势的“动态事实考察、影响因素分析、变动趋势预测、决策思路探讨”四个方面展开问题的研究。为了透彻研究改革开放至今的农产品比较优势动态,本文选用最新的NRCA index,按照SITC编码分类,分层次对所有农产品的比较优势进行测评。分析了1978-2010年间农产品总体、分类农产品比较优势变动的趋势、阶段性及分布变动,并通过回归分析、单位根检验评估了其稳定性。重点对比了入世初期与当前农产品比较优势的变化,客观判定了农产品比较优势现状。研究结果表明：总体上看,中国仅有食品和活动物类农产品具有比较优势；按产品属性来看,水产品、园艺产品和非食用畜产品是比较优势产品；按品种细分,优势品种数和劣势品种数各年相差不大,但具体分布不同；中国农产品整体比较优势的稳定周期大约为6年,同时,主要农产品大类的比较优势明显具有阶段性；大部分农产品比较优势变动是不平稳的；入世10年后,农产品比较优势格局没有发生根本性转变,基本延续着入世初期的趋势。为了深入探讨农产品比较优势变动的影响因素,本文以传统比较优势原理和前沿理论为指导,从要素禀赋、宏观经济政策、制度因素三个角度展开了研究。首先,采用省际面板数据,检验了土地资源禀赋和劳动力禀赋对比较优势的影响,并同时探讨了有效灌溉、化肥投入和农机投入对比较优势的间接影响；然后,以购买力平价比率量化代理出口导向战略的宏观经济政策,通过标准的时间序列协整检验,分析了其与农产品比较优势的长期均衡关系；最后,以经济自由度为评价指标,从制度质量的角度分析制度因素对农产品比较优势的影响,先后采用跨国面板数据进行了一般性检验和含结构突变的时间序列协整检验研究了中国个例。研究结果表明：第一,土地资源禀赋对农产品比较优势变动有显著的正影响,而农业劳动力收入对农产品比较优势有显著的负影响,有效灌溉、化肥投入和农机投入,能通过对土地和劳动力要素的替代而间接影响农产品比较优势,其背后含义是农业技术进步和资本投入能够通过改变土地和劳动力资源的禀赋状况而影响农产品比较优势；第二,出口导向战略与农产品比较优势变动具有长期稳定的正向均衡关系,因此宏观经济政策对农产品比较优势是具有影响的；第三,从世界范围来看,制度质量对农产品比较优势变动具有明显的正向影响,而从中国的实际情况来看,制度质量与农产品比较优势间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,在2003年前后具体关系有所变动,但始终为正向关系,因此,制度因素对农产品比较优势具有影响,高效率的制度安排对农产品比较优势提升具有促进作用。为了尝试预测农产品比较优势变动的未来趋势,本文采用独立随机过程的Markov链对总体农产品和各分类农产品的比较优势变动进行了研究,并进一步预测了未来5年的农产品比较优势变动状态。研究结果表明：无论从整体来看,还是从不同类别来考察,中国农产品比较优势稳固性较强、移动性弱；预期5年后,其移动性会增强,表现为劣势农产品的劣势弱化或逐渐转变为优势农产品,而优势农产品仍然呈现强健的稳固性。为了准确探寻培育改善农产品比较优势的有效措施,本文首先引入产品空间结构理论思想,构建“国家-产品-时间”的高维面板数据检验其理论对农产品比较优势研究的适用性,然后以此为基础,详细讨论了农产品比较优势培育目标选择的问题。研究结果表明：不同农产品生产的要素投入差异最终决定了农产品空间分布的不均匀形态,而这种状态对农产品比较优势变动有重要影响,离既有比较优势农产品集合越近的品种越易实现比较优势,遵循这条规律,通过对农产品密度的测算排序,密度值从大到小,依次是农产品比较优势培育目标的最佳选择。最后,在全文研究结论的基础上提出了相关的政策建议,指出实施诱导技术变迁、继续深化改革强化出口贸易发展、从多方面入手培育农产品比较优势、改善制度环境及提高制度安排效率是改善当前农产品比较优势状态的几个着力点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the guidance of liberal economic ideas, the globalization of economic activities is deepening, and the economic system all over the world has been converging gradually. The rapid development of modern science and technology also provides a powerful material support for the operation of economic system at the same time. In this context, the internationalization trend of the world agricultural development is irreversible. Since the reform and opening up, China’s agriculture began to integrate into the international system, WTO accession is a major step forward on the path of internationalization. In the process of the internationalization of agriculture, the depth and breadth of China’s agriculture opening up increase gradually, confronting with both the opportunities of full use of domestic and international resources and the pressures and challenges from the world market. Nowadays, the pattern of agricultural products trade has undergone a significant change:the scale expansion of agricultural products trade, rapid growth in imports while slow growth in exports, widening agricultural trade deficit, high market concentration and product concentration of agricultural products exports, and exports hindered by stringent access standards and trade barriers. For these, it is not optimistic about the agricultural trade situation.The transformation of comparative advantages of agricultural products is the impetus of change in the pattern of agricultural products trade. Since the reform and opening up, most of China’s agricultural products have lost their comparative advantage and most comparative advantages belong to labor-intensive agricultural products. Aquatic products, horticultural products, and some of the livestock products are the only agricultural products with comparative advantage. Moreover, China does not have the advantage of the natural resource endowment for the agricultural production, with agricultural production costs sustainably increasing and slow productivity growth, which makes considerable difficulty in improving comparative advantage of agricultural products. The situation of agricultural trade is related to the market position of Chinese agricultural internationalization, and is an important force to promote agricultural economic growth. Not only that, comparative advantage is fundamental basis of agricultural products trade (in particular, the development of export trade).Therefore, it is significant to dig into comparative advantage of agricultural products and then make accurate profound understanding.Comparative advantage is the focus of academic research and the important issue of government concern. Although modern international trade phenomenon becomes increasingly complex with development of international trade theory in more perspective, comparative advantage is the eternal topic of ongoing research. Especially for agricultural trade, comparative advantage theory has stronger explanatory power and better guiding role. Based on the times background of reform and opening up, this doctoral dissertation studies the comparative advantage dynamic of agricultural products for nearly30years, from1978, significant year for China’s economic transformation. Core issues of this research are "exploring the internal law, reason and tendency of comparative advantage changes of agricultural products" and "how to cultivate and improve the comparative advantage of agricultural products?" Taking principles of economics, international trade theory, institutional economics, product space theory as the theoretical basis and ideological guidance and using a variety of econometric methods, this empirical research is carried out.On the basis of previous research, this dissertation tries to innovatively explore from following aspects:Firstly, Employing NRCA index, this dissertation carries out a comprehensive study on comparative advantage dynamic of agricultural products since reform and opening up, highlighting integrated features of comparative advantage in this background, providing a scientific support for improving the accuracy of predication on comparative advantage changes and ensuring the reliability of conclusions.Secondly, introducing the institutional factor, this study verifies the influence of the institutional quality on comparative advantage changes of agricultural products from the forefront of trade theory, which not only breaks through the traditional research perspective, enriching the existing the research visual field of comparative advantage of agricultural products, but also provides a experience proof of the relationship between institution and comparative advantage of agricultural products from non-institutional-intensive products, playing the role of proving the forefront theory complementally.Thirdly, Constructing high-dimensional panel data of "the country-the product-time", this dissertation introduces the product space theory to the study of comparative advantage dynamic of agricultural products for the first time, verifying the decisive role of the spatial structure transformation of agricultural products for comparative advantage, and then discussing how to choose the cultivation target of comparative advantage of agricultural products, to some extent, which offsets the shortage of domestic research and plays the role of enriching the existing papers.This article analyzes the comparative advantage of agricultural products from four aspects:dynamic facts investigated, influencing factors, changes trend forecasting, and decision-making ideas.In order to make a thorough study of agricultural products of comparative advantage dynamic since reform and opening up, this paper selects the latest NRCA index and hierarchically evaluates comparative advantage of all the agricultural products in accordance with the SITC code classification. This study analyzes comparative advantage changes trend, stage and distribution change of the whole and classified agricultural products in1978-2010, assessing its stability through regression analysis and unit root tests. Compared to the comparative advantage of agricultural products during early period of accession to the WTO, this dissertation objectively determines the status of current comparative advantage of agricultural products. The results show that:overall, only food and live animals have comparative advantages; in terms of product attributes, aquatic products, horticultural products and non-edible animal products have comparative advantages; according to species, the number of dominant species and inferior varieties are similar each year but with different distribution; the stable period of comparative advantage of China’s agricultural products is about six years, while major agricultural categories with obvious stages; most of the changes in agricultural comparative advantage are not smooth; there is no fundamental change in comparative advantage pattern of agricultural products for10years after accession to the WTO, with continuation of the early trend.In order to thoroughly investigate influencing factors of comparative advantage changes of agricultural products, this dissertation applies the principle of traditional comparative advantage and cutting-edge theory to analyze in view of the factor endowments, macroeconomic policy and institutional factors. First of all, this study tests the impact of resource endowments of land and labor on comparative advantage based on the inter-provincial panel data, at the same time discussing the indirect effects of effective irrigation, fertilizer inputs and agricultural inputs on comparative advantage; then the purchasing power parity ratio is used to quantify macroeconomic policy with export-oriented strategy, with the standard time series cointegration tests, this paper analyzes long-term equilibrium relationship with comparative advantage; finally, this article analyzes the effect of institutional factors on comparative advantage of agricultural products with the degree of economic freedom for evaluation from the perspective of institutional quality, adopting the multinational panel data to conduct a general inspection and analyzing the Chinese case with cointegration test of a structural break time series. The results are as follows. First, land resource endowment has a significant positive impact on comparative advantage changes of agricultural products, while the income of agricultural labor has a significant negative impact on agricultural comparative advantages, effective irrigation, fertilizer inputs and agricultural inputs indirectly affect comparative advantage of agricultural products through replacing land and labor elements, which means that the progress of agricultural technology and capital inputs can change the endowment of land and labor resources and indirectly affect comparative advantage of agricultural products; second, there is long-term stability positive equilibrium relationship between export-oriented strategy and agricultural comparative advantage changes, so macroeconomic policies have an impact on comparative advantage of agricultural products; from a global point of view, the institutional quality has a significant positive impact on comparative advantage changes of agricultural products, as to the actual situation in China, there is long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the institutional quality and comparative advantage of agricultural products, although the specific relationship changed before and after2003, so institutional factors have an impact on comparative advantage of agricultural products and the efficient institutional arrangements can promote and enhance comparative advantages of agricultural products.In order to try to predict the future trend of comparative advantage changes of agricultural products, this paper uses Markov chain of an independent random process to study comparative advantage changes of the overall and all kinds of agricultural products, and further predict the change state in the next five years. The results show that:in terms of entirety or categories, the stability of China’s agricultural comparative advantage is strong, and the mobility is weak; the mobility is expected to enhance after five years, the disadvantage of inferior agricultural products is weakening and gradually inferior products becomes competitive, and competitive agricultural products continue to show robust stability.In order to accurately explore the effective measures to cultivate and improve the comparative advantage of agricultural products, the paper introduces the product space structure of theoretical ideas in the first place, and build the country-the product-time high-dimensional panel data to test the applicability of analyzing comparative advantage of agricultural products, and then as a basis, discussing the target selection to cultivate the comparative advantage. The results show that different agricultural production inputs ultimately determine the uneven shape of the spatial distribution of agricultural products, which has important impact on comparative advantage change for agricultural products. Comparative advantage is more easily achieved if the variety is more close to agricultural products set with existing comparative advantage. Following this rule, this study estimates the density of agricultural products, the best choice of the cultivating comparative advantage of agricultural products is followed by the density values from largest to smallest. On the basis of full-text research, this dissertation proposes several feasible policy recommendations to improve the current status of several of agricultural products of comparative advantage, such as implementation of induced technological changes, continuing to deepen reform and strengthening export trade development, multi-pronged approaches to cultivate comparative advantage of agricultural products, and improving the institutional environment and increasing the efficiency of institutional arrangement.更多还原