【作者】 刘建芳；

【导师】 祁春节；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 上世纪90年代以来,中国园艺产业迅猛发展,为调整农业结构、增加农民收入以及改善农产品出口结构和弥补农产品贸易逆差做出重要贡献,当前园艺产业已成为中国农业中的一项优势产业。截至2010年中国入世承诺全部履行完毕,中国已经顺利完成了与世界贸易规则的对接,成为全球农产品市场最开放的国家之一。近十多年来,中国入世以及参与区域贸易谈判带来的贸易自由化改革的影响已经逐渐渗透到农业的各项产业。作为农业中具有比较优势的产业,园艺产业会受到贸易自由化怎样的影响?这是本文研究的核心与重点。基于贸易自由化的理论基础,本文将事后分析和事前预测相结合,较全面地分析了贸易自由化对中国园艺产业的影响。一方面利用面板数据回归模型从事后角度实证分析了入世以来的贸易自由化改革对中国园艺产品贸易的影响,另一方面利用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)从事前角度模拟预测了未来区域及全球贸易自由化改革对中国园艺产业的影响。在此基础上,本文为贸易自由化背景下的我国园艺产业生产与贸易发展提出了对策与建议。本文的贡献和创新之处可能有以下两点：(1)在研究框架上,将理论分析与实证分析相结合、事后分析和事前预测相结合,从入世后的贸易自由化改革、现有区域贸易自由化改革、未来可能达成的区域贸易自由化改革以及新一轮多边贸易谈判等方面,建立一个贸易自由化对中国园艺产业影响分析的一般研究框架。(2)在研究方法上,根据研究目的对传统的分析工具进行了扩展运用,如构建变系数的混合截面模型和动态差分固定效应模型,进行扩展的贸易效应分析,以及利用Splitcom软件分离园艺产品和更新GTAP基准方案进行叠加影响分析等。本文的主要内容与研究结论如下：在界定园艺产品概念和范围的基础上,本文首先分析了中国园艺产业生产与贸易现状,并回顾了入世后园艺产业的贸易自由化改革历程,为后续分析提供产业背景和数据资料。联合国统计数据库的数据显示,入世后中国园艺产品进出口贸易呈跳跃式增长。贸易自由化改革是否对园艺产品贸易发展起到了促进作用?截至2010年中国入世承诺才全部履行完毕,入世承诺的实施期与区域贸易自由化改革期重叠,所以本文首先构建一个变系数混合截面模型,从关税削减角度分析了中国履行入世承诺和区域贸易自由化协议对我国园艺产品贸易的影响情况。研究发现,入世后的贸易自由化改革确实对中国各类园艺产品进出口贸易增长起到明显促进作用。其中,贸易自由化改革对中国花卉、蔬菜和茶叶出口贸易的促进作用大于进口,但对果品进口贸易的促进作用明显大于出口。特惠贸易协定在过去20年间为促进国际贸易自由化发展做出重要贡献,鉴于中国参与的特惠贸易协定数量不断增长,本文进一步针对现有的9个特惠贸易协定,从贸易政策内生角度构建了一个动态差分固定效应模型,单独就特惠贸易协定对中国园艺产品进出口贸易的影响进行实证分析,并根据实证结果进一步测度了近期中国园艺产品贸易潜力。实证结果显示,特惠贸易协定从整体上促进了中国的园艺产品进出口贸易发展,且对进口贸易的促进作用明显大于出口；截至2010年,现有的自由贸易区对中国园艺产品进出口贸易的促进作用还未充分发挥。随后,本文利用贸易政策模拟的前沿分析工具——全球贸易分析模型(GTAP),进一步就现有自贸区协定到2015年可能会对中国园艺产业造成的影响进行了预测分析。模拟结果显示,相比不建立自贸区,自贸区建成后中国花卉、蔬菜、茶叶以及园艺制品生产获益提高,生产规模扩大,但果品产业生产规模会萎缩；园艺产品进口价格普遍下跌,部分国产园艺产品在国内市场上的空间被进口品挤占,其中被挤占市场的蔬菜、花卉、茶叶以及园艺制品全部由内销转向了出口,但果品中仅部分产品转向了出口,更多的则是缩减了产出规模；蔬菜、茶叶以及园艺制品的贸易顺差增加,但果品和花卉顺差减少,园艺产业整体顺差增加。贸易自由化的步伐还在不断推进,中国也正在积极参与区域性及全球化贸易谈判。区域贸易自由化方面,除已签署协议并开始执行的9个特惠贸易协定外,中国正在参与谈判的特惠贸易协定有6个,还有3个正处于研究阶段。从当前园艺产品贸易状况可见,中国与正在谈判的贸易伙伴之间的园艺产品贸易关系不紧密,而与正在研究的自贸区成员具有密切的经贸关系。利用GTAP模拟未来区域贸易自由化改革的影响发现,建立中印自贸区、中韩自贸区以及中日韩自贸区都会促进中国的各类园艺产品产出增加,且自贸区对中国园艺产品出口贸易的促进作用明显大于进口；自贸区建成后,中国对印度、日本和韩国的园艺产品贸易盈余还会进一步增加。全球贸易自由化方面,多哈回合是中国入世后参与的第一轮多边贸易谈判。作为发展中国家的代表,中国在该轮谈判中扮演了重要角色。虽然多哈回合农业谈判历经波折至今尚未完成,但还是取得了一定的进展,农业谈判小组数次发布了不断修订的“模式草案”文本。在模拟现有区域贸易自由化基础上,利用GTAP模拟实施最新“模式草案”影响结果显示,中国各类园艺产品的国内市场价格和进出口价格均会趋于下跌,且进口价格下跌程度大于出口价格；各类园艺产品产出增加,其中园艺制品产出增幅最大,其次是蔬菜产品,花卉、果品和茶叶的产出增幅相对偏小；国内市场对进口品的需求增长明显高于国产品；各类园艺产品的进出口规模都会扩大,且出口增幅明显大于进口,其中关税减让是促进贸易增长的主要原因；中国的福利增加、贸易条件改善,但相对于其他国家获益程度偏小。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s horticultural industry has developed rapidly since the1990s. Horticultural industry plays an important role in China’s agricultural economy, which helps to adjust the agriculture structure, increase farmers’ income, improve the structure of agricultural exports and make up the agricultural trade deficit. China has performed all commitments of accession to WTO by2010and become one of the most open countries in the world. The effect of accessing to WTO and participating in regional liberalization appears gradually in every agricultural industry. What is the effect of trade liberalization on China’s horticultural industry? It is the core of this study.Based on the theory of trade liberalization, this paper combines the post-analysis with prediction to do empirical research on the impact of trade liberalization on China’s horticultural industry. On one hand, using the panel data regression models it analyzes the impact of reforms since China’s accession to WTO on horticultural trade between China and its main trade partners. On the other hand, it predicts the impact of future regional and global trade liberalization reforms on China’s horticultural industry with the Global Trade Analysis Project. At last, this paper supports some suggestions for China’s horticultural industry development.Two contribution and innovative points in this paper are as follows:(1) Based on the combination of theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, and post-analysis with prediction, it constructs a general research framework of analysis of the impact of trade liberalization on China’s horticultural industry, including the existing regional trade liberalization, regional trade liberalization that might be reached in future and the new round of multilateral trade negotiations.(2) It expands the traditional analytical tools, such as constructing a pooled-cross-section model with variable coefficient and a motive difference fixed effect model, expanding trade effect analysis, separating horticultural products using Splitcom and updating benchmark scheme to analyze the stack impact.The core contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:After defining the concept and scope of horticultural products, this paper firstly analyzes the production and trade situations of Chinese horticultural industry, and reviewes the course of the horticultural industry after the accession to WTO. Data shows that China’s horticultural import and export developed rapidly since WTO entry. Whether trade liberalization reforms play an important role in promoting trade of horticultural products? This paper built a mixed-sectional model with variable coefficients to analyze the impact of performing WTO commitments and free trade agreements on China’s horticultural trade. It found that trade liberalization reforms played a significant role in promoting the growth of the import and export of various horticultural products, in which the facilitation effect on the exports of flowers, vegetables and tea were stronger than imports. However, promotion effect on import of fruit was larger than export. Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) made great contribution to promote the development of international trade liberalization in the past20years. As the number of China’s PTAs is growing, this paper further constructs a motive difference fixed effect model from the point of endogenous of trade policy to analyze the impact of PTAs on China’s horticultural import and export. The empirical results show that PTAs promoted China’s horticultural import and export at the same time, and the improvement effect of import was greater than export. The promoting function of PTAs had not yet fully realized by2010. Subsequently, it predicts the impact of existing free trade agreements on China’s horticulture industry in2015. Results show that production of flowers, vegetables and tea will increase obviously, but the fruit production will shrink in some degree. Most horticultural products’import price will fall, so a part of domestic market will be occupied by foreign products. All the vegetables, flowers and tea replaced in the domestic market will be diverted to foreign market, but only a small part of fruits replaced can be exported to other countries. China’s trade surplus of vegetables, tea and processed horticultural products will increase, while the surplus of fruits and flowers will decrease. Overall, China’s horticultural trade surplus will rise.China is actively participating in regional and global trade negotiations. In addition to the nine PTAs signed, there are six PTAs in negotiation and three PTAs are in being considered. China has a close relationship with the PTAs members being considered. The results of GTAP simulation for future regional trade liberalization show that, all PTAs including China-India, China-Korea and China-Korea-Japan will promote the output of China’s horticulture, and the improvement effect of import is greater than export. The trade surplus of horticultural products between China and India, Korea and Japan will further rise.Doha Round is the first multilateral trade negotiation with China’s participation after its accession to WTO. As a representative of developing countries, China plays an important role in negotiations. While the negotiations in Doha Round have not yet been completed, the agricultural negotiating group has released several revised modalities. This paper collects the latest achievements of agricultural negotiation in Doha round and simulates the effect of agricultural modalities on China’s horticultural industry. Results show that all prices in domestic market and import and export trade will fall after the implementation of Doha agricultural modalities, the falling extent of import price is larger than export. The output of various horticultural products will increase obviously, among which the processed horticultural products have the largest increase, followed by vegetables, flowers, fruits and tea. Besides, the growth of demand for import products is significantly higher than national products. Both the scale of import and export will enlarge, and export’s growth is greater than import. The welfare and terms of trade will be enhanced, but the benefit is smaller than other countries.更多还原