【作者】 马国巍；

【导师】 佟光霁；

【作者基本信息】 东北林业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 在党的十七大报告中胡锦涛总书记明确指出：“解决好农业农村、农民问题,事关全面建设小康社会大局,必须始终作为全党工作的重中之重”。特别是在经济危机的冲击下,探寻解决“三农”问题、实现小康社会的有效途径被提到日程上来。改革开放三十多年来,我国乳业也获得了高速发展,但奶农的收入并没有取得相应增长,如何帮助奶农有效地规避市场风险,与千变万化的大市场有效衔接,获得稳定的收益是我们面临的主要问题。近年来奶业发展出现的困难,实质是产业链上各个环节存在问题的集中反映。推进奶业产业化经营。大力发展奶农专业合作组织,规范生鲜乳交易行为是整顿振兴乳业的有效方式之一。本文以交易费用理论、边际效益理论、产权理论、新型合作理论、公共物品理论、利益共同体理论等为依据,从乳业合作社的一般理论的视角着眼,在借鉴国外乳业发达国家的先进经验和吸收已有研究成果的基础上,深入考察我国乳业合作社的发展沿革和现状；从乳业合作社发展现状、存在问题及成长空间,进一步预测未来我国乳业合作社的成长空间。分析了乳业合作社的典型经营模式及现阶段我国的选择,对建立科学合理的运行机制及保障机制提出对策及建议。主要研究结果：第一,对现代乳业合作社、现代乳业合作社产业进行了界定。第二,总结了美国、丹麦、印度、荷兰、新西兰、澳大利亚等国家发展乳业合作社的经验和共性特征。第三,采用影响美国乳业合作社的5个指标,运用RAGA-PPE模型,对美国生产及加工型乳业合作社的合适数量范围及其占有的牛奶市场份额进行了定量评价。第四,采用BP神经网络模型对未来十年中国乳业的发展状况进行了科学的预测,未来十年中国奶牛年末存栏数、原牛奶年产量、奶牛养殖业产值和畜牧业产值将大幅度增长。第五,组建乳业合作社是乳业健康发展的必然要求、是奶农获益的重要保障、是稳定奶源市场的迫切需要和政府宏观调控的现实选择；未来十年中国乳业规模将迅速扩大,必须加强乳业的分工和专业化,对乳业合作社组织的发展提出了更高的要求；逐步建立“合作社参股的乳品加工企业+合作社+农户”模式,专业奶牛饲养公司(奶联社)模式更适合我国的乳业的发展。本文从三个角度出发,顺应乳业合作社的发展趋势,提出逐步提高奶业组织化程度；完善现有奶农专业合作社的内部运行机制；鼓励奶农专业合作社开办奶站；加大对奶农合作社的支持力度的四点对策。在加大对奶农合作社的支持力度中,建议增加奶业扶持的专项资金,提高对奶农专业合作社的补贴力度,给予奶农专业合作社在税收上的最大限度优惠。纵观整个研究,将系统理论与模型化方法引入现代乳业合作社研究,在研究思路、方法与成果上,具有一定的创新性：(1)在前人研究的基础上,对乳业合作社的相关概念进行界定,总结了乳业合作社发展的几种类型,概括了乳业合作社的特征,阐述了乳业合作社的本质及建立乳业合作社应遵循的原则,加深了对乳业合作社的理性认识,完善了乳业合作社发展的理论体系,具有一定的创新性。(2)本文建立的评价美国乳业合作社的RAGA-PPE模型具有创新性,表明在美国这样一个奶牛养殖和乳业生产大国,乳业合作社的数量并非越多越好,乳业合作社的规模也并非越大越好,两者都有一个适合的范围。这对中国的乳业合作社的数量、规模大小也有很好的借鉴价值。(3)采用BP神经网络模型预测中国乳业发展规模未见报道,具有创新性。未来十年中国乳业规模将迅速扩大,这不仅是经济高速发展的结果,也是随着改革开放和市场经济的深入发展,乳业制度变迁的结果；反过来,乳业规模的扩大,进一步促进了乳业的分工和专业化。原料奶生产无组织管理已不适应乳业经济的迅猛发展,“十二五”期间必须转变原料奶总量的增长方式。这是中国乳品产业链纵向组织关系产生和变革的前提,对乳业合作社组织的发展起到巨大推动作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The president Hu Jintao pointed out in the report at the17th Party Congress that as resolution of issues concerning agriculture, rural areas and farmers has an overall impact on building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, we must always make it a top priority in the work of the whole Party. Especially under the pressure of economic crisis,finding the proper ways to solve the agricultural problems,countryside problems and peasant’s problems and then achieve well-off society building goal has been on the agenda. During the past30years of reform and opening, Chinese dairy industry developed very fast and rapidly but dairy farmers have not got the benefit accordingly. So how to help the dairy farmers to avoid the market risk and join the ever-changing market and gain the stable benefit is an important issue for us. The problems in recent years dairy industry is, as a matter of fact, the reflect of all problems in all sectors in the industry chain. Promoting dairy Cop-op, advancing dairy industrial management and regulating fresh milk trade are the effective ways to develop dairy industry vigorously.This article,which takes Transaction cost theory, Marginal benefit theory,Property rights theory,New cooperation theoryPublic goods theory, and the theory of communities of interest as basis theory,from the view the dairy industry cooperatives general theory and by the means of learning from foreign developed country’s experience and research results,studies deeply the history and current situation of Chinese dairy industry cooperatives and from which forecast the future of Chinese dairy industry cooperatives,analyzes classic model of dairy industry cooperatives and then suggests the choices for current Chinese dairy industry and offers advises and resolution for scientific operation and guarantee system.The main research conclusions:First, this article defines the modern dairy industry cooperatives and modern dairy industry. Second, this article summarizes some western countries advanced experience, such as the US,Denmark,ndia, Holland,New Zealand and Australia that. Third, this article evaluated the quantity and market share of American dairy industry producing and processing cooperatives, using the RAGA-PPE model and5indexes that influence US dairy industry cooperatives. Fourth, with the help of BP Neural Network Model, this article predicts the future development of Chinese dairy industry and gets the conclusion that in the coming ten years the milk annual output,cow quantity,the total value of cow industry and the whole livestock industry will increase strongly.Fifth, formation of dairy cooperatives is the inevitable requirement of the healthy development of dairy industry, dairy farmers benefit is the important guarantee of stability of milk source, is the pressing needs of the market and the government macroeconomic regulation and control real options; the next ten years China’s dairy industry scale will expand rapidly, we must strengthen the dairy industry division of labor and specialization,the dairy cooperative organization development raised taller requirements; gradually establish a " cooperative shares of dairy processing enterprises+cooperation+farmer" mode, professional dairy company (milk cooperative) mode is more suitable for China’s dairy industry development.In this article, from three angles:Responsive to the dairy development trend, put forward to gradually improve the degree of organization of dairy industry; Improve the existing dairy farmers professional cooperatives internal operation mechanism; to encourage the farmers professional cooperatives operated the milk station; increase the dairy cooperatives support four countermeasures.Increase in the dairy cooperatives support, proposed to increase dairy support of special funds, improve the dairy farmers professional cooperatives subsidies for dairy farmers professional cooperatives, in a tax on the maximum concessions.Throughout the entire study, introducing system theory and model method into dairy industry cooperatives research is innovative in research ideas, methods and results.(1) Based on the previous research reference, this article defines several concepts related to dairy industry cooperatives and elaborates the nature of dairy industry cooperatives and the principle of establishing them. It concludes several models of dairy industry cooperatives development, generalizes some features of Co-op, understands the main function and the role in dairy industry and deepens rational knowledge about Co-ops, improve and perfect the theory system of dairy industry cooperatives which is of certain degree of innovation.(2) The RAGA-PPE model which this article build to evaluate US dairy industry cooperatives is innovative and it shows that even in US which is a big dairy cow breeding country and raw milk producing country,the number and scale of dairy industry cooperatives are not the more the better or the bigger the better, there should be one reasonable rang. It’s significant for Chinese dairy industry development in Co-op’s number and scale building.(3)It’s innovative and has not be seen from other reports that using BP Neural Network Model to predicts the future development of Chinese dairy industry.In the coming ten years the milk output will grow strongly and the dairy industry will expand the scale rapidly, which is the result of not only Chinese economy boosting but also dairy industry system improving. And the rapidly developing dairy industry speeds the industry specializing. The disorder management of raw milk production is no longer suitable for dairy industry development. The raw milk production increasing way should be changed during12th5-year plan period which is the premise of the happening and reform of vertical production organization relations in Chinese dairy industry chain, which would push the dairy industry cooperatives’development.更多还原