【作者】 张焕英；

【导师】 段豫川；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 农村劳动力从传统农业部门向现代非农产业部门转移,是世界各国特别是像中国这样的发展中国家推进工业化、城市化与现代化进程中的必然要求,也是化解“三农”问题的根本途径,更是二元经济结构向一元经济结构转型的必由之路。作为西部地区唯一的直辖市重庆市,具有大城市、大农村、大库区、大山区以及民族地区于一体的特殊市情,城乡二元经济结构矛盾更是十分突出。面对全国统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区的特殊使命,重庆市如何在统筹城乡发展中开创性地探索出促进农村劳动力转移的重庆模式将是一个值得深入研究的重要课题。为此,本文选择城乡统筹改革试验区重庆市为典型区域,遵循“提出问题、建构理论框架、实证分析、解决问题”的逻辑思路与技术路线,试图以发展经济学为理论基础,以结构主义方法和新古典主义方法为研究范式,在一个统一的框架中揭示出城乡统筹发展与农村劳动力转移的内在机制,并找到契合重庆市特殊市情的多元协同的促进农村劳动力稳定持续转移的政策框架。一、主要内容本文从内容上分为8章,第1章为导论,介绍本文的研究背景、理论价值和现实意义,展示本文的研究主题,并在总结和提炼国内外相关研究文献的基础上,提出本文的研究逻辑、研究途径和研究方法,以及本文研究的可能创新点与不足之处。第2章为城乡统筹发展与农村劳动力转移关系研究的核心范畴界定、理论基础与内在机制。第3章对重庆市农村劳动力转移的历史沿革、分布特征和问题表征进行了系统考察。第4章基于地区、产业与农民三维视角对重庆市农村劳动力转移的经济效应进行了理论分析与实证研究。第5章基于农村劳动力转移理论模型对重庆市农村劳动力转移的影响因素进行了实证研究。第6章构建城乡统筹发展下的重庆市农村劳动力转移的长效机制。第7章基于城乡统筹发展的视阈构建了地方政府主导和控制的多元协同的促进农村劳动力持续稳定转移的政策体系。第8章提炼全文的研究结论,并对进一步的研究方向做出展望。二、基本结论1.城乡统筹发展与农村劳动力转移之间具有强烈的互动机理。城乡统筹发展可以对农村劳动力转移会产生强烈的集聚效应、辐射效应、收入效应,从而推动农村劳动力向城市转移；农村劳动力转移通过流动过程中劳动力的优化配置、劳动力自身的人力资本投资、劳动力回流的“归雁经济”,改变城乡的产业结构,进而促进城市与农村的协调发展。2.随着农业劳动生产率的不断提高,重庆市农村剩余劳动力数量总体上也呈现出持续上升趋势。运用基于生产资源配置优化模型的结构主义方法对重庆市直辖以来的农村剩余劳动力的数量进行合理估算的结果表明,随着农业劳动生产率的不断提高,重庆市农业剩余劳动力数量总体上也呈现出持续上升趋势。这既是中央宏观农村政策作用的结果,也是重庆市工业化发展的必然。3.从转移劳动力的人口学分布、转移区域分布、转移产业分布看,重庆市农村劳动力转移整体上呈现出低效率特征,存在着诸多问题。重庆市农村转移劳动力的人口学特征并不平衡,且整体素质较低；在转移区域上呈现出以东部地区为主、西部地区为辅的全方位转移格局；在转移产业上以非农产业转移为主,且集中于产业层次较低的劳动密集型产业。表现出来的问题是人力资本水平偏低,就业结构不平稳；转移路径以自发转移和亲朋好友带动转移这两种市场配置方式为主,组织化程度不高；转移的“兼业性”突出,非农化水平低；农村转移劳动力的合法权益缺乏有效保护,社会保障缺失。4.重庆市农村劳动力转移具有显著的经济增长效应、农业产出效应和农民收入效应,从而为城乡统筹发展提供了动力支持。综合运用统计分析方法和计量分析方法,利用重庆市直辖以来1997-2009年的产值结构、就业结构以及收入结构等数据,对重庆市农村劳动力转移的宏观经济效应(再配置效应或地区经济增长效应)、中观经济效应(农业产出效应)和微观经济效应(收入效应)进行定量分析的结果表明：(1)农村劳动力的转移对重庆市区域经济增长具有显著且稳定的效应。此外,受宏观经济环境、政策偏好、发展战略、经济基础等因素的综合影响,农村劳动力的再配置效应具有时间差异性和产业差异性；(2)从短期来看,农村劳动力转移是农业劳动生产率的Granger原因,从长期来看,农村劳动力转移对农业劳动生产率的提高具有正向冲击效应,而农业劳动生产率的提高也将对农村劳动力转移产生正面效应。这就表明重庆市农村劳动力转移具有显著的产出效应。(3)工资性收入将成为农村居民收入的重要组成部分,并处于相对稳定的增长态势,这就意味着,农村劳动力在产业间的转移将对重庆市农村居民家庭发挥显著且持久的收入效应。因此,对于城乡统筹试验区的重庆市来说,将从事低生产率产业的农村剩余劳动力有序转移到高生产率的非农产业,有助于渐进的化解城乡二元经济结构矛盾,实现城乡经济社会的统筹发展5.重庆市农村劳动力向非农产业和城镇的转移是为了实现自身效用最大化而进行理性决策的结果,其行为受到转移成本和市场需求的双重约束。作为理性的经济人,农村劳动力转移受转移成本、预期效用和市场需求等诸多因素的影响,具体而言主要包括非农转移收入、非农转移成本、城市就业概率三个因素,而非农转移收入包括货币效用和非货币效用,转移成本也包括货币成本与非货币成本。在重点考察货币效用和货币成本的前提下,选择城乡收入差距、城市消费支出差距以及城市化率作为解释变量,实证研究表明,城乡收入差距、城市消费支出差距、城市化率与农村劳动力转移比率之间存在长期的均衡关系,各相关变量短期的偏离经过长期的调整后都能够收敛到均衡状态；无论是长期抑或短期,城乡收入差距与城市化率都是促进重庆市农村劳动力转移的显著原因,其中城市化率与农村劳动力转移之间还存在双向的Granger因果关系,而城市消费支出差距却成为阻碍重庆市农村劳动力转移的重要因素。6.在城乡统筹发展背景下要促进重庆市农村劳动力转移持续、稳定的有效转移,需要借鉴国内外农村劳动力转移的经验,从政府、市场、农民三维互动的角度,设计包括产业带动机制、利益保护机制、就业培训机制、权利保障机制为内容的长效机制。英国、美国、日本等发达国家的农村劳动力转移的经验表明农业现代化、产业的发展、政府政策刺激是促进农村劳动力有序转移的重要内容。成都在城乡统筹发展中所制订实施的政策也表明：在促进农村劳动力转移的过程中,对农民权益的保护、公共服务、社会管理的城乡一体化,农业产业化的推进都能增强农村劳动力转移的动机。因此,要促进重庆市农村劳动力转移,需要从政府、市场、农民三个维度进行长效机制设计,实现三维的互动。其中政府是长效设计的核心；本着科学发展、消除城乡差距、平等城乡居民权利理念,以制度创新为手段,以平等、完整的权利制度为核心内容,构建产业带动机制、利益保护机制、就业培训机制和权利保障机制,实现农村劳动力能够转移出来,更能稳定下来,从农民彻底转化为市民。7.重庆市政府是制度的供给者,应该在城乡统筹背景下进一步通过制度创新构建出政府主导的多元协同的政策体系,以此有效引导农村劳动力的持续且稳定转移。鉴于重庆市城乡二元结构特征突出的特殊市情,制度的设计不能就农村而农村,就城市而城市,而应着眼于城乡的统筹发展,通过制度创新促进和维持农村劳动力的转移行为,以降低农村劳动力的转移成本、增加农村劳动力转移的效用以及扩大农村劳动力转移就业的概率为政策着力点,构建农业产业化、土地流转制度、就业制度、户籍制度、教育制度以及社会保障制度改革多元协同的政策体系,从而有效推进农村劳动力转移与城乡统筹发展。三、可能的创新1.运用发展经济学的理论基础和分析范式,构造了一个全新的阐释城乡统筹发展与农村劳动力转移内在机理的理论框架。在对核心概念诠释的基础上,运用发展经济学的理论基础和分析范式尝试对城乡统筹发展与农村劳动力转移的内在机制或互动关系做出合理的理论解释,以此为城乡统筹背景下农村劳动力转移的实证研究和政策设计提供理论指导。2.运用结构主义方法和新古典主义方法对城乡统筹背景下的重庆市农村劳动力转移问题进行了系统的实证研究。结构主义方法的运用包括两个方面：即运用基于生产资源配置优化模型的结构主义方法对重庆市近年来的农村剩余劳动力的数量进行了估算；综合运用统计分析方法和计量分析方法对重庆市农村劳动力转移的宏观经济效应(再配置效应或地区经济增长效应)、中观经济效应(农业产出效应)和微观经济效应(收入效应)进行了多维的实证考察；运用新古典主义方法从农民行为选择的微观角度,采用VAR时间序列动态模型就重庆市农村劳动力转移的影响因素进行了实证分析。3.基于城乡统筹发展的视阈并契合重庆市的特殊市情构建了促进农村劳动力转移的长效机制,提出了政府主导和控制的多元协同的政策框架。研究证明,农村劳动力在产业间和区域间的转移是为了实现自身效用或收益最大化而进行理性决策的结果,这种转移受转移成本、预期效用和市场需求等诸多表层因素的影响。因此,降低农村劳动力的转移成本、增加农村劳动力转移的效用以及扩大农村劳动力转移就业的概率将是重庆市政府未来政策的主要着力点。在此理念指导下,构建了以政府、市场、农民三维互动为思路,包括产业带动机制、利益保护机制、就业培训机制和权利保障机制为内容的长效机制；提出渐进式的推进农业产业化、土地流转制度、就业制度、户籍制度、教育制度以及社会保障制度改革为主体的、重庆市政府主导和控制的多元协同的政策框架,以此实现农村劳动力的可持续、稳定转移。四、政策建议本文经过系统研究提出以下6条政策建议：1.推进农业产业化改革,拓展农村劳动力转移的产业空间；2.创新农村土地流转制度,消除农村劳动力转移的后顾之忧；3.创新就业制度,拓宽和疏通农村劳动力转移的渠道；4.深化户籍制度改革,降低农村劳动力转移的制度成本；5.调整农村教育结构,提升农村转移劳动力的人力资本水平；6.创新社会保障制度,保护农村转移劳动力的社会权益。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rural labor’s transfer from the traditional agricultural sector to the modern department of blame farming estate, is a inevitable requirement in every country especially the developing country such as China to advance industrialized, Urbanization and modernization, is a fundamental way to solve the problem of agriculture, countryside and Peasantry, is the only way which two dual economic structure transform to a dual economic structure.As the only municipality in the western region, Chongqing is very special city with a big city, big country, large area, big mountain and ethical region, so the contradiction of two dual economic structure is very outstanding. Facing the special mission of becoming the urban and rural comprehensive reform pilot area, it is a important task and worth further study to find out the Chongqing mode which how to promote the transfer of rural labor.For this purpose, this paper choose Chongqing, the urban and rural reform pilot area, as a typical area, Follow the logic thought and technical route "raise questions, construct the theory frame, empirical analysis, solve the problem", development Economics as theoretical basis, structuralism method and neoclassicism method as research paradigm, In a unified framework, to reveal the internal mechanism between the balanced development urban and rural and the transfer of rural labor, to establish the policy framework which fit the Chongqing’s special condition, is multiple synergistic, and can promote rural labor’s steady transfer.1. Main contentsThis article is divided into8chapters. The first chapter is introduction, introduce the background, theory value and practical significance, Show the research subject of this article. Literature studies at home and abroad were summarized and refined, the article put forward the research logic, research approach and research method, point out the possible innovation and shortage.The second chapter is the study of the core category definition, theoretical foundation and the inner mechanism of the relationship between balancing urban and rural development and the transfer of rural labor. The third chapter systematically study of rural labor transfer’s history and characteristics of the fact in Chongqing city The fourth chapter has carried on the theoretical analysis and empirical study based on the Rural labor transfer’s economic effect in Chongqing city, from three-dimensional perspective, the area, industry and farmer.The fifth chapter is the empirical research on the influencing factors of rural labor transfer in Chongqing, based on the theory of rural labor transfer model.The sixth chapter produce some long term mechanisms to ensure the sustainable and stable transfer of labor force from rural to urban areas, to ensure the farmers to become urban citizens completely.The seventh chapter construct a multiple cooperation policy system in which the local government is in a position of control and domination, and the system can make the rural labor transfer Sustained and stable.The eighth chapter refined the research conclusion, and prospected the further research direction.2. The basic conclusions(1)there is strong interaction mechanism between balancing development of urban and rural and the transfer of rural labor.Balancing urban and rural development have a strong effect of agglomeration, radiation effect, income effect on the transfer of rural labor, so to promote rural labor transfers to the city;The transfer of rural labor can change industry structure in urban and rural, through the optimized allocation of labor in flow process, labor’s human capital investment,"Returned wild goose" economy of labour circumfluence, then to promote the harmonious development of city and country.2. when the agricultural labor productivity rise ceaselessly, the force of rural surplus labor in Chongqing city on the whole showing a rising trend.Article make a reasonable estimate of the number of rural surplus labor in Chongqing city since Chongqing became the municipality directly under the central government, with the methods of Structuralism which based on manufacturing resource configuration optimization model. The estimation results show that the agricultural surplus labor in Chongqing in general is also showing a rising trend as agricultural labor productivity rise ceaselessly. This is the result of central rural macro policy, also the necessity of the industrialization development of Chongqing.(2) With the constant improvement of agricultural productivity, the quantity of the rural surplus labor in Chongqing takes on ascend trend on the whole. With the use of structural approach based on optimization model of resources deployment, the article calculates the quantity of the rual surplus labor in Chongqing. The results indicate that the quantity takes on upward trend on the whole, as the agricultural productivity is steadily going up. This is the result of the rural policies and the industrialization in Chongqing.(3)The rural labor transfer in Chongqing city on the whole shows low efficiency characteristics from the population distribution, regional distribution, industrial distribution; and there exist many problems. The rural labor transfer in Chongqing shows low efficiency characteristics:rural labour transfer’s demographic characteristics are not balanced; In the transfer region, it Shows a full range of transfer pattern the eastern region as the main, the western region as the secondary; The industry that they shift to is almost non-agricultural, labor-intensive industries.In the transfer approach, two kinds of market allocation, Spontaneous metastasis and close friends to drive transfer are mainly, and the degree of organization is not high; in the transfer pattern, the coexistence of multiple industry is mainly, and the type’s selection have the obvious spatial difference(3)The transfer of rural labor in Chongqing has significant effect on economic growth, agricultural output effect and farmer income effect, So as to provide power support for balancing urban and rural development.With the comprehensive use of statistical analysis method and quantitative analysis method, by use of the structure data such as the production. employment and income since Chongqing became a municipality directly under the central government, that is from1997to2009, the article made quantitative analysis on the macroeconomic effect (disposition effect or region economy growth effect), meso economic effect (agricultural output effect) and microeconomic effect (the income effect), the results show:(a)The transfer of rural labor has a significant and stable effect on the regional economic growth in Chongqing city. In addition, influenced by the factors such as the macro economic environment, policy preferences, development strategy, economic foundation and so on, the effect of rural Labor’s reallocation has time difference and industry difference;(b) In the short term, the transfer of rural labor is the Granger reason of agricultural labor productivity, in the long term, the transfer of rural labor have positive effect on the improvement of agricultural productivity, And the improvement of agricultural productivity will also have a positive effect on the transfer of rural labor. This shows that the rural labor’s transfer in Chongqing city has a significant output effect;(c) the wage income will become the important part of the income of rural residents, and in a relatively stable growth, this means there will be a significant and persistent income effect on the rural residents of Chongqing City family when rural labor move between the industry. Therefore, when rural surplus labor in the low productivity of industry orderly transfer to the high productivity of blame farming industry it will contribute to dissolve the contradiction of the economy structure which urban and rural isolated proceed in an orderly way and step by step, then the economic and social development in urban and rural as a whole become a reality.(5)To realize utility maximization, the rural labor in Chongqing City transfer to blame farming industry and to cities or towns, and the transfer cost and market demand restrain their behavior.Rural labor is a rational economic person, there are many factors influence their transfer, such as the transfer cost, expected utility, market demand and so on. mainly including transfer income, transfer cost, city employment probability, the transfer income includes monetary effect and non monetary effect, transfer cost includes monetary cost and non-monetary cost.Focuses on the monetary utility and monetary cost, Choose the income gap between urban and rural, rate of Urbanization as explanatory variables, The empirical research shows there is long term equilibrium relationship between them and the transfer ratio, and the relevant variables; short-term deviate can converge to the equilibrium state after a long period of adjustment;Whether long or short, the income gap between urban and rural and the rate of Urbanization promote the rural labor transfer in Chongqing City obviously, there are bidirectional Granger causality between the rate of Urbanization and the transfer, expenditure gap between urban and rural is the important factor which block rural labor transfer in Chongqing city.(6) Under the situation of balancing urban and rural development, to promote the labor force in Chongqing to make a sustainable, stable and effective transfer from rural to urban areas, we must make some long-term mechanisms, including the ones of right, interest, training and safety. Experience from the developed countries such as the UK, U.S. and Japan has shown that, agriculture modernization, industrialization and public policies are very important for the labor force transfer. Chengdu’s experience also showed that, in the process of labor force transfer, protection of the rights of farmers, public services, social management integration and agricultural industrialization played an important part in enhancing labor force transfer. Therefore, we need to produce some long term mechanisms from three dimensions of government, market and farmers to achieve a three-dimensional interaction. In which the government is the core of the problem, needing to make institution innovations to ensure the sustainable and stable transfer of labor force from rural to urban areas, to ensure the farmers to become urban citizens completely.(7)As a provider of system, Chongqing city hall should innovate system to build a government-led multiple collaborative policy system in the context of urban and rural overall planning, so to effectively guide the rural labor transfer Continuously and stable.In Chongqing city, the characteristic that urban and rural isolated is Particularly prominent, so system design must focus on the urban and rural development as a whole, through the system innovation to promote and maintain the transfer of rural labor. To reduce the cost of the transfer of rural labor, increase the utility of rural labor transfer, expand the probability of employment of rural labor transfer as policy focal point to build a police system which agricultural industrialization, rural land system, census register system, employment system, education system and the reform of social security system of multiple cooperative, so as to promote the transfer of rural labor, urban and rural development, promote the coordinative development of urban and rural areas.3. The possible innovations(1)By using the theory of development economics theory and analysis model, this article construct a new theoretical framework to explain balancing urban and rural development and rural labor transfer interaction mechanism.Based on interpretation of the core concept, using the theory of development economics theory and analysis model, this article reasonablely explained the internal mechanisms or interactive relationship between balancing urban and rural development and rural labor transfer, so as to provide theoretical guidance for the empirical research and policy design of the transfer of rural labor under the background of planning for urban and rural.(2) This article made a system empirical research on the transfer of rural labor in Chongqing under the background of balancing urban and rural development by using the method of structuralism and neoclassicism.Structuralism methods include two aspects: Estimate the quantity of the surplus rural labor in Chongqing city in recent years by using the methods of Structuralism based on production resources configuration Optimization model;Make a multiple empirical analysis on the macroeconomic effect (disposition effect or region economy growth effect), meso economic effect (agricultural output effect) and microeconomic effect (the income effect) of rural labor transfer in Chongqing City by using statistical analysis method and quantitative analysis method;Make a empirical analysis on the influence factors of rural labor transfer in Chongqing City by using New Classical method and the VAR time series dynamic model, from microcosmic angle of farmers’ behavior choice.(3)Put forward a long term mechanisims and a multiple cooperative policy framework in which the government dominate and control based on the perspective of balancing urban and rural development, agree with the special city situation of Chongqing.Studies show it is the result of rational decision-making that the rural labor transfer in industry and regional, the purpose is to realize oneself effectiveness or profit maximization, this transfer is influenced by the transfer cost, expected utility, market demand and other Surface factors.Therefore, to reduce the transfer of rural labor cost, increase rural labor transfer utility. expand the employment rate of rural labor after transfer should be the main focus of future policy in Chongqing city.This philosophy as a guide, we need to produce some long term mechanisms from three dimensions of government, market and farmers to achieve a three-dimensional interaction, including the ones of right, interest, training and safety, to gradually promot the reform of the system of the agricultural industrialization, rural land system, census register system, employment system, education system and social security system, then to construct a multiple cooperation policy framework in which the government dominate and control, so as to realize the sustainable, stable and transfer of rural labor.4. Policy suggestionsThis article put forward the following6suggestions after systematic research:(1)advance agricultural industrialization reform, expand rural labor transfer industrial space;(2) innovate rural land circulation system, eliminate any future worries after rural labor transfered;(3) innovate employment system, widen and dredge the channel rural labor transfer;(4)deepen the reform of census register system, reduce the transfer of rural labor system cost;(5)adjust rural education structure, improve the level of human capital of rural labour transfer;(6)innovate social security system, protect social rights and interests of rural labour transfer.更多还原